Restricted FA Drama Likely In Hotlanta

by Steve Weinman on Jun 24, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in NBA Articles

A Daily Babble Production

Scary thought for Hawks fans: Josh Smith's days in Atlanta may be numbered.

Scary thought for Celts fans (and aficionados of other Eastern contenders): Chris McCosky of the Detroit News says the Pistons are likely to pursue Smith via a sign-and-trade.

The versatile Hawks forward made just $2.24 million in 2007-08, and the Hawks' $3.17 milliion qualifying offer will all but assuredly not be sufficient, thus making Smith a restricted free agent. Over the last few days, both McCosky and ESPN's Chris Broussard have reported that Smith's asking price is likely to begin at $11 million per year, which the Hawks may have to opt against accepting.

As Broussard notes, this could be catastrophic for the Hawks.

It could also be quite beastly for any suitor that manages to snag Smith.

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This young Hawks team finally began to come together toward the end of the season, and that culminated with the morale boost provided by taking the Celtics to seven games in the first round of the playoffs. While the 34-point drubbing they took in the final game undoubtedly left a sour taste in their mouths, this was a Hawks team not expected to make the playoffs or win a single game if they did, much less take the eventual champs the distance.

Despite the fact that he didn't have a great playoff series, Josh Smith was a huge part of that. As has been in the case in each of the three years since his rookie season, he improved once again, shooting the ball more effectively and continuing to rebound and block shots quite well while somehow maintaining his role as a 6-foot-9, 225-pound "combo everything" player. Though Smith's shooting was erratic in the series with the Celts (he was a shade below 40 percent from the field), he was a major factor throughout the series in altering shots with his wing-span and shot-blocking abilities on the inside, and he certainly discouraged Boston point guard Rajon Rondo from attacking the rim at times. The guy also put up performances of 27 points (11-of-17 shooting), 9 boards and 6 assists in Game 3 and then 28 points (8-for-16 from the field, 12-of-13 from the line), 7 blocks and 6 boards in Game 4, both Atlanta victories. He drastically stepped up his foul shooting from 71 percent in the regular season to 84 percent in the playoffs, and he was responsible for several crowd-raising highlight-reel plays on both ends of the floor throughout the season and playoffs.

For all his past conduct issues -- and there is no doubt some maturing left to be done -- Josh Smith had really begun the transformation into a leader on this Atlanta team when all was said and done last season. Yes, he still turns the ball over a lot. Yes, he still gambles a bit too much defensively and could play a more fundamentally sound game there. Yes, he was a no-show in Game 7 against the Celtics, but so were all his likewise overmatched teammates against the team that would be crowned champions a month and a half later. But he also continues to improve and to show the ability to become a potent threat in quite possibly every facet of the game. The man can score, dish, rebound, block shots and play three positions quite comfortably.

Josh Smith is in the midst of playing a huge role in rejuvenating basketball in Atlanta. If the Hawks are ultimately forced to let him walk, it will cost them far more than simply Smith's production on the court. This team and its fan base will take a major blow in losing a vast part of the heart and soul of the group of upstarts. While a sign-and-trade would certainly be better for the team than losing Smith for nothing, the Hawks would still be likely to lose a good portion of any positive vibes built with last year's run. As it stands, Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford are to be the pillars of this team for some time to come. The blow from losing Smith's excitement could affect everyone on this team from top to bottom.

In the meantime, the thought of Smith joining an established team could be downright terrifying, particularly if that team resides in Detroit. Adding his youthful energy and explosiveness to a vet-laden team (plus Jason Maxiell and Rodney Stuckey) could re-invigorate the Pistons as a unit. While I'm not sure what it would take Detroit to get him,no matter who goes, the Pistons could likely provide an environment that would be conducive to Smith's continued development both on the basketball court and off. Playing in Detroit's system could help Smith gain a better grasp of how to harness his leaping and gambling in the most efficient ways possible, and having Smith would add another dimension to the Pistons' attack.

While Detroit is the situation for Smith that might be most dangerous to the Celtics, there are no shortage of other places in this league in which he would make an immediate impact.

Josh Smith still has a long way to go as a basketball player in this league. But given both his game-breaking explosiveness and how far he has come already, the vote here is that he is more than worth a shot for anyone who can afford him.

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Why would losing Josh Smith be catastrophic? Maybe paying him 11 million will be catastrophic for some other team.

by Brickowski on Jun 24, 2008 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

Though catastrophic could well turn out to be an overstatement on my part, Smith has shown flashes of future brilliance in stints thus far in his career, and I’m a big believer that the best is yet to come for the 22-year-old — as detailed throughout the rest of the piece.

In the right situation, I think it entirely possible that he could live up to the contract he garners this off-season, and it will be a pleasure to watch him do it — so long as he doesn’t kill the Celts somehow.

-sw

by Steve Weinman on Jun 24, 2008 1:45 AM EDT reply actions

Atlanta has the worst management. Letting a 22 year old all-star caliber player go is a horrible decision. offering a player of that talent 3 million a year, the same as scal, is offensive. He should walk away to teach then a lesson. Detroit is scary with Smith.

by Cooldude5t5 on Jun 24, 2008 3:08 AM EDT reply actions

Why would losing Josh Smith be catastrophic? Maybe paying him 11 million will be catastrophic for some other team.

I’m with you Brick. Josh Smith hasn’t proven to be worth 11mil per annum and he hasn’t shown enough to convince me he’s ever going to become a player worth that type of money.

Resigning Josh Smith is one of the most dangerous signings in the History of Atlanta’s franchise because it means Al Horford has to play out of position for the rest of his career and in a position that vastly limits his impact on both ends of the floor. I’m not taking Josh Smith over Horford, no siree, not for a single second of the day am I taking Josh Smith over Al Horford. Horford is the ticket to better times and building an actual contender.

Atlanta has done a horrific job developing their young forwards which was absolutely guaranteed to happen the minute they overloaded their roster with forwards. Josh Smith is a power forward at this stage of his career. You move him over to small forward and suddenly his passing, ball handling, shooting ability all become weaknesses for him. Leave him at power forward and they’re strengths, well sort of. Defensively taking him away from the rim is the worst possible move because he won’t be able to alter/affect as many shots as before which is his only defensive talent. He’s not stopper. It’s the same mistake Utah made with Kirilenko. This is his career now, you’ve spent 4 years developing him into this player and in fairness to the lad he’s done his end of the deal by becoming a power forward (which he was in no way able to do when he arrived in Atlanta). Then you have the problem of Childress and Williams just to complicate matters even further.

Al Horford is built like a tank at 6-10. He likes to muscle people and play physical. Playing center leaves him at a physical disadvantage on a nightly basis. Putting him at power forward makes him a beast. He’ll overpower opposing players in the low post. Defensively you now get him to his real position are able to add the defensive minded center you need regardless of whether you resign Josh or not. Horford plus a Diop, that’s two very big guys in the paint controlling the backboards and forcing the opposition outside. That’s something that would be very nice.

If Detroit came a knocking my asking price would be Rip Hamilton and I’d move JJ to small forward and make Marvin Williams by backup forward. I’d leave Childress too because he’s about to become overpaid and I want no piece of that. Then try and move Bibby’s useless backside (expiring contract) for a decent player. Take Detroit’s first round pick also and add DJ White. Keep Zaza as a backup big.

by Who on Jun 24, 2008 3:50 AM EDT reply actions

Can we please stop saying Atlanta are on some magical road to becoming a quality team?

I hate that. They’re a poor team. They had the 18th best record in the NBA and they got lucky teams like Indiana (injuries) and Chicago (self-destructed) didn’t take that spot for them. I’m not convinced they even make the playoffs next year. They’re going to have those two teams plus Miami plus Jersey plus there’s a few maybe teams that might join the race (Charlotte, Milwaukee, NY).

They’re a weak defensive team. Only one average or better perimeter defender (JJ very good defender) and only one interior defender who’s above average (Josh Smith). Mike Bibby is the worst defensive starting guard in the league. Josh Childress is one of the weakest defensive wings in the league. Marvin is a below average defensive player. Their centers are average (Horford) and slightly below average (Zaza).

Their offensive talent is no better. They have only player that is consistently able to beat his man off the dribble in Joe Johnson. You have all four players on the court outside Joe Johnson who are below average passers for their position. Nobody moves without the ball well. They don’t establish the post despite having several post options. They don’t run the floor often enough so they don’t (1) play to their actual strengths (2) get enough easy baskets and play to their weaknesses on a nightly basis

Oh and did I mention they have an idiot for a Head Coach who couldn’t develop a good game plan to save his life.

by Who on Jun 24, 2008 3:58 AM EDT reply actions

i don’t know if atlanta ruined smith or vice versa, but he is that one minute you are in awe and the next, you hate him, kind of guy. at 11 mil per, detroit can have him. he’s much better than tony, but tony is that kind of player as well. you fit him into a team, but do not fit the team to him.

by nazzbo on Jun 24, 2008 6:49 AM EDT reply actions

How come we have two "Who"’s here? They’re both pretty sharp, but one of them is persuading me that Atlanta, by way of a trade with Detroit, is going to be a really rough bunch. Then the other one immediately says Atlanta isn’t on the road to becoming a quality team. This is too confusing for me at this time of the morning.

by no kidding on Jun 24, 2008 7:24 AM EDT reply actions

How come we have two "Who"’s here? They’re both pretty sharp, but one of them is persuading me that Atlanta, by way of a trade with Detroit, is going to be a really rough bunch. Then the other one immediately says Atlanta isn’t on the road to becoming a quality team. This is too confusing for me at this time of the morning.

Dual-Personality disorder perhaps?

Atlanta need to break up their core if they want to take steps forward. Their present core of players are talented individuals who are flawed as a collective.

If they move Josh Smith it opens up the rest of the team (all their forwards have opportunities to play their best positions) and allows them to fix some of the holes they currently need to address.

by Who on Jun 24, 2008 8:08 AM EDT reply actions

I’m starting to really like the idea of a Rip Hamilton in Atlanta. It has to be Rip if I’m Atlanta’s GM (Sund did land Ray Allen for an old GP) [/i]. Billups and Sheed are both too old and don’t have long enough left in their careers to platoon with Atlanta’s young players. Prince isn’t good enough.

Next move, try and trade Bibby’s expiring contract for Hinrich. Chicago is going to want to try to cut salary, Bibby gives them just as good a trade asset as Hinrich currently is, actually Bibby’s probably better. Now you have three perimeter defenders who are all well above average defenders at their position and all have good size. Get yourself a decent defensive big man to combine with Horford and you should have a very good interior defense and a good rebounding team.

Offensively you have two 20ppg scorers on the wing. A possible 20-10 big man in Horford. Plus Hinrich playing a supporting role as fourth man. That’s a nice place to be. Hamilton, Hinrich and Johnson are all very good-to-excellent three point shooters [i](another big flaw for Atlanta now) who can space the floor properly. They can all pass and Hamilton is excellent off the ball which will give them more options in the half court. Horford should be a better low post option in the half court again giving them more options.

Turn to the bench. You have Zaza Pachulia is a solid backup center. Add a power forward from late in the draft (DJ White) somehow (maybe Detroit). Keep Marvin Williams who gives you a 14-15ppg option off the bench combo forward. Add a Mo Evans or Azubuike or some other cheap shooting guard with a perimeter jump shot. Now all is left is a backup point guard. Wait and see if Utah waive Jason Hart or sign someone else on the minimum. That’s a solid bench.

Rip Hamilton, Joe Johnson and Kirk Hinrich provide good experience and leadership for the club. Horford despite his young age and limited experience looks like a leader himself.

That’s a good team. That’s a team that’s capable of knocking off some top Eastern Conference squads. That’s a future worth talking about.

by Who on Jun 24, 2008 8:21 AM EDT reply actions

Joe Johnson and Al Horford are much more important to the future of the Hawks than Josh Smith. It will hurt if they lose him, but if they can replace him with a more focused veteran, they may be better off. Seeing how bad Hawks management is, I can totally see them screwing this up.

by ChiefDK on Jun 24, 2008 8:50 AM EDT reply actions

Atlanta will never be a contender again.

by mcpu40 on Jun 24, 2008 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

When were the Hawks ever a contender? Even the Rivers-Dominique teams had no real chance. I think there were a couple of years when the Wilkins-Koncak-Willis-Levinson front line averaged about 1 assist per game collectively. No one on that team except Rivers passed the ball. You don’t win championships that way.

by Brickowski on Jun 24, 2008 10:24 AM EDT reply actions

I’m starting to really like the idea of a Rip Hamilton in Atlanta.

I don’t know. I think the same argument regarding the limitations of Horford at C can be made for Johnson at SF. Also, I don’t believe Dumars will ever trade Rip. Not in a million years. In fact, Rip is likely the only player besides Stuckey and Maxiell on the roster that I believe is untouchable save for a trade for someone in the LeBron/Kobe pantheon.

No, no. Bibby isn’t great, but he’s a capable floor general, the Boston playoff series aside. Still, I’d probably trade him for a PG who can hit a few 3s, provide D, and get the ball to players; it doesn’t need to be an All-Star. Then, if I were Atlanta, I’d make the deal for someone like a Tayshaun Prince, who is a true SF (and filler, probably; maybe swap a few contracts). I’d sign Ratliff for the vet minimum (since some of Theo’s best years arguably came as a Hawk). Assuming he’s healthy, I’d trot out a 1-5 of (3 PT/D PG), Johnson, Prince, Horford, and Ratliff. Maybe you’ll call me crazy, but you don’t think a Starting 5 like that could do some damage in the East? We’ve seen from the Celtics that a strong 2-4 can carry a weaker 1 and 5. I’m not saying my suggestion would rain championship banners down upon the ATL, but that’d certainly be a strong mix if their bench could hold up.

by BUTerrier on Jun 24, 2008 7:23 PM EDT reply actions

Also, I don’t believe Dumars will ever trade Rip. Not in a million years. In fact, Rip is likely the only player besides Stuckey and Maxiell on the roster that I believe is untouchable save for a trade for someone in the LeBron/Kobe pantheon.[/quote]
Dumars has already said all his starters are on the trade table. Joe said there is only one player who isn’t on the trade table and that’s Rodney Stuckey.

Stuckey is a ready made replacement for either Rip Hamilton (Stuckey’s natural and best position)[/i] or Chauncey Billups. Personally I think the trade of Rip Hamilton has been coming since the first day of summer league last year.
[quote]I think the same argument regarding the limitations of Horford at C can be made for Johnson at SF.[/quote]
It can’t

Joe Johnson has played small forward a lot during his career and he’s just as successful there as shooting guard. He already has a track record proving he can be successful there.

Biggest difference between Joe and Horford is that Horford lives off his physical dominance. Joe lives off his basketball skills. I’d like Joe to use his physical advantages more often because it would benefit him but he doesn’t do it. Joe would be an unstoppable post player against all those smaller shooting guards if he posted up often enough but he doesn’t.

Joe’s shooting ability, passing ability, penetration, ability to finish in traffic … all that stuff is just as true at small forward as shooting guard. His quickness, balance and agility all become enhanced advantages against small forwards.

In fact all those skills become more pronounced for his team because now instead of having two players on the court (two guards) with those skills you now have three players on the court (two guards one forward) with those skills so your offense is far more diversified.
[quote]Then, if I were Atlanta, I’d make the deal for someone like a Tayshaun Prince, who is a true SF (and filler, probably; maybe swap a few contracts).[/quote]
Tayshaun Prince is a worse small forward than Joe Johnson. Both are 6-7 only Joe has about 30lbs of extra muscle on him [i](40lbs of muscle when he last played small forward). No small forward in the league can push Joe around. The same is not true for Prince.

By the way, Joe is a better defensive player than Tayshaun Prince and defends small forwards better than Tayshaun Prince.
[quote]No, no. Bibby isn’t great, but he’s a capable floor general[/quote]
Bibby isn’t a starting caliber player in this league anymore. He’s not a capable floor general. He is living off his reputation. Anthony Johnson was a better point guard than Bibby for Atlanta just like Udrih was a better point guard than Bibby for Sacramento which tells you everything you need to know about Mike Bibby.

But I like that you’re trading him ;D
[quote]I’d sign Ratliff for the vet minimum (since some of Theo’s best years arguably came as a Hawk)

I don’t expect Ratliff to leave Detroit. He started his career in Detroit and Joe wants him to finish up there. Detroit also have the best medical/conditioning/training staff in the country which is great for a guy like Theo because they can help him stay healthy. Similar to Dikembe Mutombo in Houston, I just don’t see either wanting to leave their present teams.

At this stage of Theo’s career and with his injury history I couldn’t count on him to start and play the minutes necessary. He’s a fourth/fifth big in the rotation at this point of his career.

by Who on Jun 25, 2008 5:35 AM EDT reply actions