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Around SBN: Are The Orioles Bad Or Unlucky With Their Young Pitching?

NBA Draft Bullets

I can't say that I have a ton of great insight into the draft, but I've been studying up for the last couple of days and I need somewhere to put my thoughts, so here is a bullet list.  Feel free to use this as a conversation jumping off point.  Chances are you'll teach me something.

  • Rose vs. Beasley: I'd take Rose number 1 because he's the safer pick and because he's a point guard.  You can always find a power forward, but great points don't come along very often.
  • Trades are always a fun subplot to draft night.  It sure looks like the Heat are going to be shopping that number 2 pick hard.
  • If we are going to be making any trades this offseason, it is going to happen on draft night.  I don't see what we have to offer other teams, but you never know (depending on who is on the board when we pick).
  • Roy Hibbert: There's a chance he could drop like a rock and it sounds like a lot of Celtics fans wouldn't even want him if he fell to 30.  I understand he has weaknesses that were played out on a very public stage in Georgetown, but you are going to find weaknesses in everyone available at 30.  I guess it is just a matter of which strengths fit your team best.
  • I want Ainge to pick the best player available, but if he picks another undersized power forward, I'm going to be scratching my head.
  • Seems like most drafts ends up being this way, but boy am I glad we aren't a lottery team picking in the 5-8 range.  In that range fans are still looking for a big score but the talent seems lacking.  Any guy drafted in that range has been ranked anywhere from 3 to 20 in the last couple of weeks.
  • I hear a lot about the "draft a Euro and stash him overseas" theory, but don't you need a bigtime talent to make it worth it?  There's a world of difference between Ginobili and Frederick Weis.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I haven't heard a lot of buzz around any late round Euro sleepers.
  • I kinda like John Hollinger's stat crunching.  You can bet that Ainge has some stat guys of his own.  As long as you take it with a grain of salt.  It is one measure of a player's worth, not the whole deal.  I think I bumped up Darrell Arthur on my "guys I like" list because of the stats.  Still, while Kevin Love looks great by Hollinger's numbers, he looks like a big soft bust to my eyes.  I don't know who's right but I wouldn't bet on me.
  • The Blazers just bought the 27th pick.  Wait, I thought they had too many players.  Coming a day before the draft (meaning they don't have the ability to see who's available) I wonder if this is a move leading to a move where they package picks and players.
  • For that matter, why are the Hornets selling picks?  Didn't anyone learn from the Suns mistake when they sold us Rondo?  Can the Celtics buy a draft pick or two?  Is there a payment program we can set up?  If you are going to get rid of a pick, why not at least get a future pick in return?   I don't get it.
  • Ok, final prediction:  I want a big man to back up Perkins, but big men are almost always a reach.  I bet we draft some wing player (Ford has us taking Courtney Lee) that essentially makes Tony Allen expendable.

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good synopsis. i would take hibbert on the spot. you can’t teach height-but you can teach a tall guy tricks and who better to do that than clfford ray. hibbert would be the long term steal of the draft and would make an incredible combo with perk. but that will require gm’s being stupid to let him drop and i don’t see that happening.

by nazzbo on Jun 25, 2008 7:06 AM EDT reply actions  

My guess is, Hibbert is long gone before the Celts pick.

I think that the Celts will take “the best player available” unless that player is an undersized forward.

I do not think the Celts trade up

However, I would not hold it against them to trade down

I do not think they go the Euro-stash route

All I can add is this “What a difference a year makes” I am not sure if you have the ability to track site usage, but I would think a year ago this site was hopping right about now and the vast majority of us were Tobin bound.

by SShoreFan 2.0 on Jun 25, 2008 7:31 AM EDT reply actions  

SShoreFan – the interesting analysis results I found with the site from last year to this was the level of activity – we had probably twice as many people visiting the site but after the initial reaction of the trade news, we had a noticable drop in conversation during the regular season – my take: there was just less to complain about!

yup, what a difference a year makes indeed

by Jeff Clark on Jun 25, 2008 7:37 AM EDT reply actions  

I would think the Hibbert/Clif Ray idea is good enough to gamble on. He’s big and not skinny big but he plays soft which is probably why he’s dropping. At 7’2" he can be as slow as Perk but more effective with 4 extra inches as far as offense goes but if he’s soft he won’t beat out Leon.
Tony Allen has legit NBA skills, a ring w us and knows the schemes etc. We know his flaws. But you give 3 guaranteed years to a first rounder so why not put the money into Tony. Everybody loves draft day but the C’s might be better off trading the last pick in first round for a 2nd rounder where the money isn’t so long.
Is Gerald Green any more of a gamble than who you’d get at #30 and it wouldn’t take a gtd 3 years?
I still believe that Big Baby will have a better NBA career than Jeff Green.

by Wildblu1 on Jun 25, 2008 7:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Wouldn’t stashing away a Euro guy save us some much needed money right now?
Remember, priority one should be resigning Posey.
If we keep the pick and try to fill an immediate need, I’d go for a back-up SG like Courtney Lee. It would be less risky to find a free agent back-up Center than to draft one at #30.

by DJ to Bird on Jun 25, 2008 7:48 AM EDT reply actions  

While your post seems non committal in the main, I do think it’s one of your best in that you didn’t force an opinion where none was warranted. Instead of us “teaching” you, your post was rather a familiar instruction for us to be cautious and learn (by watching what occurs in what seems to be a generally WEAK draft). Kudos for your restraint!

by moskqq on Jun 25, 2008 7:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Jeff,

You just discovered the secret of talk radio!! Talk radio participation is at it’s highest when people want to complain. It’s the oddest thing, when things are going well people are content in doing their day-to-day activities, but when things are not to their liking the phone lines light up.

Well, no complaining here and my posts keep coming -- although let’s face it, the quality is a bit suspect!! ;D

by SShoreFan 2.0 on Jun 25, 2008 7:53 AM EDT reply actions  

WHY DON’T WE EVER BUY PICKS!!!

by rickyfan3.0... on Jun 25, 2008 7:56 AM EDT reply actions  

ugh, don’t start the all caps in here, it ruined the comments section on Ball Don’t Lie

by Jeff Clark on Jun 25, 2008 8:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Hibbert would be fine as a back up. As someone else said, “you can’t teach height”. Jeff, what you said about the lottery teams is the biggest problem they face. It’s vaery hard to break out of that cycle of losing when you are only bringing in a #5 to a #13 lottery pick. Those kind of players do not get you to the next level. But every year gm’s and the espn guru’s salivate over who will the #7 pick be! I’m glad we are not in that mode anymore. As for what Danny might do. How about trading our pick along with Scal to someone wanting to move up to free up some payroll to allow a little more flexibility with Posey, House, etc. this summer. The problem is that at #30, probably no one wants to take on salary in a player (Scal) to then add guaranteed years in a pick when they wait a couple of picks and their free of being locked in. Though, you never know.

by celty86 on Jun 25, 2008 8:05 AM EDT reply actions  

If the Bulls pick Rose ove Beasly they well be kicking themselves for the next 15 years. Mark my words. I can’t remember ever seeing a more complete, NBA ready player. The only thing he lacks right now is defense and as Celtics fans know all that takes is a good team system and dedication.

by jayc429 on Jun 25, 2008 8:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Bill Walker. Or Courtney Lee. Please.

by Ersatz on Jun 25, 2008 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Absolutely agree with Ford on this one: CL is the right pick to spell Allen. Most of the quality bigs are going to be gone by #30, so might as well fill the second most pressing need. Need another off the bench scoring threat other than Eddie.

by justinwhitaker on Jun 25, 2008 8:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Just for sake of staking out a position, if I’m Ainge, I’m offering Big Baby Davis and my 30th spot to trade up in the draft (maybe 10 spots higher?) so I can draft a legitimately tall center. I’m hoping to find a project, perhaps Hibbert, that Clifford Ray can develop into a servicable backup.

I like Davis, but he has some value worth peddling, and I’m willing to settle on Powe as my backup at the 4 spot.

by no kidding on Jun 25, 2008 8:48 AM EDT reply actions  

pst pst. Jeff
Ginobili isnt Euro
remember that!! ;)

by Edgar on Jun 25, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Consider:

1. Perk is injury prone and tends to get into foul problems. In other words WE NEED A RELIABLE BACKUP!

2. BBaby and Leon both play the same position. In other words WE DON’T PLAY THEM AT THE SAME TIME (unless a garbage or injury thing).

3. PJ is ancient and prolly won’t want to play anyway.

4. Forget Pollard….and any other left over ancient role players.

So: It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out we need a REAL center. This is also one of the best draft years for centers – No, not Wilt’s or Kareems etc but for a Perkalike backup, occasional starter quality. Drafting at 30, we appear to be between 5 and 10 slots short of getting home. (Hopefully Hibbard). Trade either Powe or BBaby and our first to move up.

by Dipper on Jun 25, 2008 9:08 AM EDT reply actions  

you are so right Edgar, my humble apologies

reminds me of the time when someone referred to my very large (strong) asian friend as “oriental” – he snapped back in a booming voice “I’m not a food!”

by Jeff Clark on Jun 25, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m with Dipper: trade TA or Baby/Powe and move up. Not “Medical Bill” Walker, please. OK with Courtney Lee or another TA replacement, if it comes to that.

by Eeyore III on Jun 25, 2008 9:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Re Beasley/Rose
I really don’t think that good Point Guards are harder to come by than good Power Forwards. PF is a production position, PG is not.

Rose’ value is sky high because of Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Those guys are really, really great. But history didn’t tell me that you need a superstar point guard to get a ring. You need a superstar big man. It’s that easy.

Payton, Stockton, Kidd. Great players. No ring.

And don’t tell me Payton got a ring. He was the 8th guy on the Heat team, not their superstar.

by Mahoney_jr on Jun 25, 2008 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

hahahahah I’m not a food! That rules.

Also, on the topic of Hollinger’s stats, remember that his system last year also graded out Nick Fazekas pretty highly. And he did what last year? Heh. Exactly.

Celts will take the best fit for them, probably the best big banger available.

by dobbs on Jun 25, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m with dipper.

BBD / Powe one of those is expendable. Trade him with the pick to go up in the draft. Hibbert is a good player, a big man coming from a great tradition of centers. I’m sure he has some weaks but i rememer him dominating Oden just one yer ago…so I think it would be a great addition.

by PiensaEnVerde on Jun 25, 2008 11:17 AM EDT reply actions  

I think Danny will trade down for two second rounders. Gets him out of the guaranteed money and lets him work his drafting magic! He may have to kick in a future second to get two HIGH second rounders, unless someone is really Jonesing for a certain player when our pick comes up! With DA’s draft history, you’d think this would be a decent way to go!

by OhioGreen on Jun 25, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Just any “wing player” isn’t going to make Tony Allen expendable – Obviously, he is one of the best, if not the best (points to Kevin Garnett) defenders on the team – since we always match him up with Kobe and company….

When Tony gets totally fit again – other teams better watch it – with a bum ankle, he still contained Kobe in game 4 or 5 – and that’s playing with a limp!

We need to draft a big guy to back up Kendrick, period. Especially, if PJ Brown follows through with his retirement and I believe that he will now that he’s won a championship (unless he’d like to go for two!) It’s Kendrick and then nobody…if PJ quits.

by Nanc on Jun 25, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions  

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