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Plan B - Post-Posey Era

poseyfloor1.jpgAfter weeks of speculation and a solid week of hints and threats from Mark Bartelstien, this really should come as no surprise.  Still, I always kind of envisioned him coming back.  I didn't think he'd get a 4th year and if he did I thought that Ainge would bite the bullet and offer it to him.  But he didn't and Posey will now play for the New Orleans Hornets.

First, let's take a look at the good news.  He won't be playing for the Pistons, Cavs, Wizards, or any other Eastern Conference team next year.  So we won't have to face him in the first 3 rounds of the playoffs.  Also, we won't be paying him close to $7,000,000 when he's 35 years old.  For more on this, see John Hollinger's article here.   Finally, there's a slightly higher chance that we'll now be able to bring back guys like Eddie House and Tony Allen.

Of course all that doesn't amount to much considering that we just lost our top bench player, an elite defensive specialist, and an emotional leader on and off the court.  He will be very difficult to replace.  In fact, I don't think you can replace all that he gave us with just one player.  It has to be a combination of new players and current players stepping up.

So we move on to plan B, whatever that is.  Let's start looking at other options.

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Star-divide

Offering a contract to Josh Childress:  This is appealing because he's the same kind of versatile, valuable, ideal 6th man kind of guy that Posey was, except he's less experienced (but has more good years ahead of him).  Sounds like a great plan.  In fact, a lot of people would agree that he's worth the full Mid Level (depending again on the number of years). 

The catch: he's a restricted free agent and the Hawks have told anyone that will listen that they will match any offer.  Do they mean it?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  The thinking was that the Sixers or Clippers would offer Josh Smith a huge contract, forcing the Hawks to match and have little left under the cap to match offers for Childress.  However, now that the Sixers have Brand and the Clippers have Camby, only the Grizzlies have the kind of cash to lure Smith away (and Memphis isn't spending all their cap space on Josh Smith).  Smith is still making noise that he doesn't like the coach, but the most realistic scenario is that he stays in Atlanta for less than a max contract or gets signed and traded away.  Either option probably leaves the Hawks enough flexibility to match a MLE offer to Childress.

Offering a contract to Ryan Gomes:  Just like with Childress, Gomes has a lot of intangible qualities you look for in a great 6th man.  Of course there's the added bonus that he's well known in these parts and by all accounts very well respected by the team.  I don't know how the negotiations went with the TWolves, but you can bet Danny was trying to figure out a way to not include Ryan in the deal.

The catch:  See above.  He's another restricted free agent and the TWolves have expressed great interest in bringing him back.  Minnesota is building a young roster to grow around Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes fits right into those plans.  Then again, they might just feel that they have too much money wrapped up in guys like Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal as a result of a draft night trade.  With the right kind of offer the Celtics might pry him away.

Filling In With Unrestricted Free Agents:   We have other needs on the roster besides defensive wing.  Backup point guards like Kenyon Dooling and Carlos Arroyo are on the market and can probably command more than the veterans minimum.  I'm not sure what the market is for Shaun Livingston, but he's available too.  Or if you must have a wing player, Matt Barnes is available (though I admit I don't know much about the guy).  And there's always Darius Miles, ...I guess.

Explore the trade market:  There's only so much you can do assuming we are not willing to trade Ray Allen yet (he'd be more valuable next offseason when he's an expiring contract).  Perhaps we could convince someone to take Big Baby or Powe.  If we could use Scalabrine's contract, even better.  Of course, that package isn't going to buy you much in return.

Bring back Tony Allen, Eddie House, and pray:  We did just draft two wing players and (laugh if you want) we still employ Brian Scalabrine for 2 more years.   If Tony Allen got steady minutes, he could take a big step forward next year (of course we've been saying that for how many years now?).  Maybe JR Giddens and Bill Walker could fill in at the wing as well.  Only time will tell but don't ask me to put too much hope in this plan.

I'm sure there are other options, and we'll be exploring those in the weeks ahead, but this is enough to get us started.  The post-Posey era begins now.

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Oh Pose, we hardly knew ye

by redzdeadbabyredzdead on Jul 16, 2008 8:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t want Childress and I don’t want Gomes.

I’m not wild about spending the MLE on a long term or medium term contract for anyone on the market. I’d rather one year contracts and leave some flexibility for Danny to spend it on a quality ball player next season. It’ll be hard for Danny to spend the MLE in consecutive years considering the luxury tax situation the team is currently in.

I’d rather add Eddie House than either Dooling or Arroyo. I’d also rather Tony than most of the other wings in free agency. There’s some depth and solid quality on the wings though, lots of comparable impact (with different styles) type of players so one of about 4-5 guys I’d be happy enough with.

by Who on Jul 16, 2008 9:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What it amounts to, Jeff, is that we are almost certainly going into next season with a diminished bench. O’Blount is certainly no improvement over what we had last year, and as your piece makes clear, there are few quality options to replace Posey – in one player or in pieces. The idea that Tony Allen can help is laughable.

by CoachBo on Jul 16, 2008 9:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Matt Barnes, Kurt Thomas, Marbury, Tony Allen. These are the guys to target.

by JAM on Jul 16, 2008 9:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

we need some good “reliable” rumors…where’s CelticsThug when you need him?

by MaxwellSmart on Jul 16, 2008 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I really have no idea what Ainge plans to do. My guess is Darius Miles, or maybe a trade. At least Tyron Lue is no longer an option. I suspect that we’ll get a chance to see if Gabe Pruitt was worth a draft pick.

I do like the idea of trying to retool with younger players. As some point the big 3 will start to decline, and Rondo will need some decent guys to play with.

by Brickowski on Jul 16, 2008 9:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I might have to fire up the Bring Back Ryan Gomes bandwagon again. I think a lot of people would like to jump on board.

by Jeff Clark on Jul 16, 2008 9:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I might have to fire up the Bring Back Ryan Gomes bandwagon again. I think a lot of people would like to jump on board.

Not me. Gomes can’t defend a chair, and his inside skills duplicate BBD and Powe. I’d rather have Tony Allen.

by Brickowski on Jul 16, 2008 9:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Two similar players not mentioned by Jeff that are unrestricted are Boki Nachbar and Maurice Evans. Nachbar’s stats last year compare to those of Pose, he averaged more pts in less minutes though his fg%s were slightly lower. He’s not nearly the defender but he is younger (just turned 28) and is 6’9".
I think the best option is Maurice Evans, he’s more of a 2/3 than a 3/4 that Pose was, but he had a nice year with the Magic and probably can be had for part of the midlevel at short years. He can shoot the 3, is quite athletic, and is a tough-nosed defender.

by flexilexi on Jul 16, 2008 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mo Evans a tough-nosed defender? Since when?

If Ainge3 wants to rent veteran scorers off the bench here’s a name for you: J.R. Holden.

by Brickowski on Jul 16, 2008 10:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I know 90% of this board thinks scal is trash. But he does a lot of the things Posey does just every one a little worse (hustles, plays D, takes charges, decent range). He won’t be our sixth man and he won’t be on the floor to end games but he can certainly fill a small part of what Pose left. Someone thought he was talented enough to give him three and a half million a year.

by YouveBeenPierced on Jul 16, 2008 10:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I;m with Brick: we need defense, not Gomes, in this slot.

by clover on Jul 16, 2008 10:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m predicting Bostjan Nachbar.

by Roy_Hobbs on Jul 16, 2008 11:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why don’t we save our MLE and make a run at a boozer, artest, or marion in ’09 whem everyone else will be in money saving mode looking forward to 2010 and there may not be much of a market. Is that a possibility?

by YouveBeenPierced on Jul 16, 2008 11:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, Nachbar can’t defend a chair either.

by Brickowski on Jul 16, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

  I think the players to target are:

SG: Plan A: Evans..I agree with flexi on Evans. He’s someone not many people have mentioned, but he’s a good all-around player—excellent shooter.
    Plan B: Resign Tony…this would not be a bad move, but I would much rather have Evans.

PG: Plan A? Dooling, House, Lue
    Plan B?
Lue’s shooting and assist numbers are actually pretty good; the problem obviously is that he can’t defend anybody—at all. Dooling is more in the opposite camp—a good defender who is a mediocre shooter. If you just look at his past three seasons, his shooting numbers are pretty good and his 3pt % has improved 5 seasons in a row. The problem here is that Rondo isn’t a great shooter either, so if they sign Dooling they have to hope Dooling’s last three years aren’t a fluke. I’ll roll the dice with him over House, who showed last year all he can do is hit 3’s.

C-Plan A: Kurt Thomas: O’Bryant has more upside, but Thomas is likely to be better for the championship window.

In summary, split the MLE among Evans, Thomas,and Dooling and we have ourselves a more than capable bench.

by lumpymoo on Jul 16, 2008 11:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

We should make an offer to Jannero Pargo. He would be a good combo guard off our bench. Maybe screw the Hornets in the process.

by liam on Jul 16, 2008 11:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Kurt Thomas or Nachbar. Plus Eddie & Tony.

by celty86 on Jul 17, 2008 12:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some chairs are hard to defend.

by amenhotep04 on Jul 17, 2008 12:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well this discussion makes it clear that we are screwed. no one we can dream to get is as good as posey now. no combo will work. pose was a glue guy, a clutch shooter, solid defender, selfless and a winner. what a mess.kg can kiss his next titles goodbye.

by wahz on Jul 17, 2008 12:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no excuse at all for this. Why? Why? WHY in god’s name didn’t they just give Posey a 4th year?? I know, i know, he’ll be 35 and they will have to pay him 7 mil a year or thereabouts. SO WHAT?? why the heck not? Even when that contract expires he’ll be two years younger than Bruce Bowen was this year and Bruce Bowen was pretty darned serviceable for the Spurs, am I wrong? What are they even saving the money for? The time to win another championship isn’t 2011 or 2012, it’s RIGHT NOW!!!!!!

by celticsmaniac on Jul 17, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Danny Ainge is a b-ball genius and deserves people’s trust and respect. This move shows long term vision.

Look at the Miami team a few years ago that won the title, then brought back the same team and went downhill fast. Older teams that win need to re-tool with younger players. BBD and Powe have earned more playing time and in a year or two will probably earn bigger contracts. The team needs minutes in the games and dollars under the luxury tax to develop them and keep them.

Signing O’Bryant to a cheap contract was exactly the type of smart, low cost move the team needed. Garnett was our only long big man before that. Between him, BBD, and Powe all of the backup 4 minutes will be covered. That really only leaves 10 minutes at the 3. Give Walker a chance. We made a big mistake a few years ago when we drafted Gomes, signed Scalabrine to a five year deal, and within half a season Gomes passed him on the depth chart. Leave room for your young guys to develop.

Go Danny Go!

by Ish Tov on Jul 17, 2008 1:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i think loosing posey will end up being a big mistake… he needs to be replaced with someone who spreads the floor with their good shooting and is not a defensive liability… not an easy task

by 00dc2 on Jul 17, 2008 4:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

So it goes when we have three giant contracts. I’m glad we do because they are unselfish stars. Posey came in cheap outdid expectations and earned a payday from someone less fettered moneywise. Read Ish Tov above. He’s right.
Signing Posey meant goodbye to Eddie and T Allen. Now that one isn’t goingt to happen I would act fast to sign both of them and you’ll still have money left over. Barnes, Evans, Nachbar…I’d rather go with who we have and that includes BBD, Powe, Scal, Tony, Giddens. Some combo of those can take Posey’s mins.

by Wildblu1 on Jul 17, 2008 5:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Take our #17 to the bank, trade KG and BBD to Atl for S&T for Josh Smith and Josh Childress and a #1 next year! 8)

by OhioGreen on Jul 17, 2008 5:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

it is doubtful the celtics can get a posey-clone, someone will equal levels of defense and 3 pt shooting. but, what the bench needs, and needed last year, is offense. the 2nd team lacked consistent scoring.

barnes might provide enough shooting when combined with house. and barnes defense, from what i read on this blog, would be good.

as for defense, team defense can help make up for an individual’s abilities. tony allen could probably fill the bill there, and if his knee is healed, he is a scorer. (not much of a shooter, but he can score.)

the sky is not falling. ainge needs 1 or 2 players to help the bench depth while giddens and walker and pruitt gain more experience.

by hwangjini_1 on Jul 17, 2008 7:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bring in Quintin Ross. He’s cheap and plays damn good D.

by ShakersJacobson on Jul 17, 2008 7:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Huge disappointment, Posey can not be replaced. I don’t only think about his defense and three point shooting, but who else is going to dive onto the court for loose balls the way he does and have that sniper’s mentality to hit the big shot when it counts? It may sound trivial too, but who is going to hug all the starters right before the jumpball abd really get them amped for the game, is this the end of Ubuntu?

by Celtic on Jul 17, 2008 9:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Powe and Scalabrine for Artest. The Kings are desperate to move Ron and Powe’s value is high (especially in northern Cal). This would be a big upgrade. Powe is worth more than LO

by michael32951 on Jul 17, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mark me down for Matt Barnes.

He is a scrappy veteran backup 3 with length and timely shooting. No stranger to playing the 4 in a small lineup for Nellie, he can stretch the floor and hit the 3-ball. He won’t cost us long term either.
 

Maybe we could split the MLE between House and Barnes? That would fill out our bench pretty well and leave Danny an empty roster spot to carry through the season (ie – stay in shape, PJ).

by D Dub on Jul 17, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just let me say here that there are alot of people here who are going in panic mode here. this is the one thing you don’t want ainge to do. Do you honestly think Ainge doesn’t know and hasn’t known what his options are out there? The one person that can replace what Posey has done with his intangibles is Tony Allen. He was well on his way to being a key contributor to this team before his second injury, and now that he will be totally heeled can be that same type player who is actuallt a better point producer than Posey was. Put House ariund him along with either Barnes or Nachbar and he can do his thing. There isn’t anyone who can stop TA from getting to the basket and except for Pierce we don’t have that type of player. Time to get off Posey’s jock and give TA his due that Posey stole from him.

by steelbos on Jul 17, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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