Summer of Posey

by Jeff Clark on Jul 8, 2008 7:30 AM EDT in Articles Comment 20 comments

A year ago nobody was talking about James Posey in Boston. It was assumed that he'd get more money in Miami or elsewhere. He took less for a chance to play in Boston for a year or two and a chance to cash in later. Now it is later and it is time for James to cash in and all we can talk about is James Posey.

It is worth noting that we are just a few weeks removed from a Championship. The Duck Boats probably still have confetti stuck between the seats from the parade. The starting 5 are all under contract for the next couple years and all signs point to bringing our coaching staff back. So why is Celtic Nation wringing our collective hands over a bench player?

Probably because of one word: Ubuntu. Does any one player embody that selfless, team first mentality better than James Posey? Anyone that makes a living as a defensive stopper is by definition an ubuntu player. He could have taken bigger money elsewhere last year but he didn't. He could have started for a number of teams but didn't. He provided Championship experience on a team that started out with zero rings last Fall. He gave those great man-hug pep talks before the games even began. He dove on the floor for lose balls and got under opponents' skins. And when we needed him to step up and hit a big shot or two, he always seemed to come through.

Henry Abbott put it this way: "Playing tough D and hitting open threes -- there's a guy like that on every title-winning team I can remember."

Basically most everyone agrees that it is great to have a guy like James Posey around. But at what cost?

One camp believes that you bring Posey back at all costs, keep the team as in-tact as possible for a shot at a repeat title and live with the consequences down the line. I see the reasoning in that. If the team won it this year, why wouldn't they have a great chance to win again next year with the same lineup?

Another camp believes that a "win-at-all-costs" mentality typically costs too much and doesn't actually guarantee winning. Examples like the Patriots and Red Sox are given as teams that drew a line in the sand and didn't sign players for more than they were worth. The thinking is that we can replace most of what Posey provided for much cheaper and/or fill in the gaps with other current players stepping up.

Fans are perfectly willing to spend Wyc's money, that isn't the issue. It is just a matter of how much cap space we're willing to tie up for him. 4 to 5 years from now, nobody expects Posey to be worth $7 - $8 Million on the salary cap. Is the short term benefit worth the long term cost?

Reports are that the Celtics have offered 3 years at the Non-Bird level (about $12M). Personally I'd be comfortable upping the offer to the full MLE for 3 years (starting at $5.8M) and seeing if he can get an offer for more than that on the market. If and when he does, it becomes a matter of deciding to match it or not (he's not a restricted free agent, but I would think he'd like to stay in Boston if the offers are even).

But I'll be the first to admit that I'm no salary cap expert. I'm not sure if the team is eying the 2010 free agent class. I am sure they are hoping to keep flexibility for when Pierce, Allen, and Garnett start rolling off the books.

Deciding just how much to offer Posey and for how many years will have a big impact on the team for several years to come. Tomorrow is an important day to this team's future, not to mention James Posey's future. I don't think it will get resolved tomorrow morning, but at least the process will officially begin and we'll be able to see how the chips will fall.

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Jeff, you mention your are no salary cap expert…
I mentioned the other day that Allen comes off the books in 2010 in time for the Lebron/Wade/Amare sweepstakes and got called on the carpet for my misunderstanding of the salary cap and free agency rules (which is fine), but with no explanation as to why I am in the wrong (which isn’t).

Ray Allen comes off the books in 2010. Why can’t we sign a top level free agent like Wade or Stoudemire to replace him if we choose? Even if we keep him, it will be for a fraction of the eighteen million he made 2009/2010.

Thanks-
The original Hondo to Rondo

by Hondo to Rondo on Jul 8, 2008 8:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Personally I’d be comfortable upping the offer to the full MLE for 3 years (starting at $5.8M)

I would offer him this as well. If he wants the years, I would ask him to accept the $4.5 mil per for 4 years.

by Bankshot on Jul 8, 2008 8:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hondo to Rondo – I don’t know if we’d have enough salary cap room to sign a free agent after Ray Allen came off the books – we’d still be too close to the salary cap to offer one of the big names the big money

I think Ainge will likely use Ray Allen’s expiring contract in a trade at mid season just before his contract expires – someone who already has some cap space will give us a lot for that additional cap space to make a run at James or Wade.

by Jeff Clark on Jul 8, 2008 8:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing to keep in mind, this team isn’t the Red Sox or Patriots. Both teams could afford to say, “we’ll take a step backwards next year to take two steps forward in two years.” The Celtics don’t have that luxury. For every year they wait, it increases the likelihood that the Big Three slip or face injuries.

If Ainge thinks that he can bring back a better team without signing Posey, well then I guess in Danny we trust. However, if he thinks that the quality of the team will go down without Posey, well then screw what happens in 3, 4, or 5 years. Anytime you have a shot at a title, you have to go for it. You never know when that opportunity will happen again.

And just because Danny has a “rebuilding plan” doesn’t mean it will work. There have been plenty of teams that GMs built well that never panned out (the Malone/Stockton Jazz, the Barkley/KJ Suns, the Webber/Bibby Kings to name a few).

by Jon on Jul 8, 2008 8:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, when a player comes off the books, you don’t just immediately have his entire salary open to use. it still depends on what the cap is and what your payroll is. So next season, not counting any pending free agent signings or rookie contracts, we have only 9 players under contract for 71.4 million dollars, while the cap is going to be around 59 million. during the ‘09-’10 season, we have 7 players under contract for 62.6 million, the big difference there being that KG’s extension begins at 8 million below his salary for next season, but we’ll still be over the cap with just those 7 players.

Hypothetically, we could get our payroll down to 44.7 million in the ‘10 offseason, and, assuming steady growth, the cap could be around 64 million. So yes, once Allen comes off the books in ’10 we could have 20 million in cap space, but you know how many players would still be under contract if this were to happen? Three: KG, PP, and Perk. If Rondo gets an extension, subtract that amount from the 20 mil. (let’s say his contract will start at 6 mil.). If we use our MLE this year, substract another 6 mil. If we use our MLE next year, subtract 6 mil again. Add an extenstion for just one of BBD or Powe, and subtract another 3 mill. Suddenly we’re back over the cap, that easily, and it’s simple to see how Allen’s contract coming off the books doesn’t necessarily mean cap space for free agents.

However, if, two seasons from now, the C’s are having a down year, they could package RA’s expiring contract with draft picks or younger players and trade at the Feb. ‘10 deadline for one of the desirable free agents to be if the team (miami, cleveland, toronto) thought their free agent was going to walk for nothing. Of course, only do this if you can sign said free agent to a long extension in the same move, which we could do regardless of our cap because in a trade we’d inherit a players’ bird rights, enabling us to retain said player by going over the cap.

by Fan from VT on Jul 8, 2008 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, i should have said if we use the MLE this year for a 3 yr. or longer contract, and use the MLE next year for a 2 yr. or longer contract.

by Fan from VT on Jul 8, 2008 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

With Banner 17 headed for the rafters the pressure on Danny to “produce the vision” has been reduced to a faint whispering fart. He produced by rolling the dice with all his chips stacked on KG PP and RA and rolled a 7…errr 17.

My guess is that he conitnues to play semi-hard ball with Posey and says “look Huggy Bear we really want you but…… I also have to look to the future…so let me know and by the way quit hugging me”. He is then probably on the phone to Paul and KG saying “Get that man to stay go over and give him a group hug!!!!”

We have 22 more years to get this right again before the pressure builds to a boiling point and by that time I will either be dunking basketballs in heaven, or being the Lakers permanent ball boy in hell.

Peace

by Master Po on Jul 8, 2008 9:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

VT Fan, I hear what you’re saying but I don’t believe that Cleveland, Miami or Toronto would trade their free agent to be superstar out of fear that they won’t be able to resign said star. They know that ultimately they can offer the most cash and I don’t see or don’t remember that ever happening before. It’s not like baseball where there are sellers and buyers at every deadline.

by celty86 on Jul 8, 2008 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well remember last season, Cassell did not want to finish the season with the clips, LAC knew he was going to be a free agent and that he wouldn’t re-sign, so they tried to shop him at the trade deadline. didn’t work, so they bought him out to save money. i know it’s a long shot, but who knows.

Golden State would probably have been better off trading Davis last season, but that was kind of unforeseen.

Regardless, i was trying to point out how much of a long shot it will be for us to get one of the coveted free agents in the ’10 offseason, and the scenario I outlined is really the only way I see, because we will not have gaggles of cap space to throw around in true free agency. i imagine our rebuilding efforts around that time will be a bit ugly, but man whatever happens was worth it.

by Fan from VT on Jul 8, 2008 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

we all want posey but wouldn’t it be great for him if he goes to another team and that team ends up winning the nba title? 3 titles- 3 different teams and more dough and/or years. can’t blame him.

by nazzbo on Jul 8, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m starting to feel a little unattributed. A week ago I talked about how every championship team has a Posey. I cited Michael Cooper and Robert Horry as defensive stoppers who could hit the dagger three. But I digress….

by The Real Large James on Jul 8, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ah, Po, I hope you plan on living past your early 70s….You’re scaring me dude.

by The Real Large James on Jul 8, 2008 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Posey and my man Eddie. Bring em back. Good players, good guys on a team where chemistry put the banner up.

Pruitt steps up at PG and Eddie gets more time at the 2 than the 1. Hold on to Giddens and Walker – odds are one is a Tony Allen replacement and who knows which one. Packaging draft picks for vets should not be an annual plan. Young guys give you financial flexibility.

by Wildblu1 on Jul 8, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I waffle back and forth over whether I would prefer Maggette or Posey. I love Posey, and if Maggette is off the table…i would be willing to go four yrs, full mid-level if that is what it takes to keep him away from other contenders. If we get Maggette instead, it changes the team a lot. More offense, maybe a bit less defense and toughness.

I’m kind of in the “In Danny We Trust” camp at this point also. Posey is probably better for this coming season, but having Maggette in the fold to replace Ray eventually, and allow us to trade Ray/Scals in a year and a half….that is pretty fascinating also.

As long as we get one, I will be quite pleased. I won’t feel completely at ease though, until one is locked up. My biggest fear is Maggette going to SA, and Ainge playing hardball with Posey until he goes to CLE or LAL.

by Truth Hurts on Jul 8, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Patriots or Sox letting a player go wouldn’t be the same as the C’s letting one go. Football has 53 players on the team. The Sox have 25. NBA only has 12. The equivalent to the Patriots would be if they let go of five key players at the same time.

by slamdunk1 on Jul 8, 2008 11:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The thinking is that we can replace most of what Posey provided for much cheaper and/or fill in the gaps with other current players stepping up.

Jeff, with the above statement I know you are stating an argument used by others to NOT sign Posey for more than he is worth and the argument is furthered that he won’t be worth as much in 4 or 5 years as he might be today. His age is taken into account to make this argument. But the problem is I don’t see any other player or players in the league who can do for us what James did for us last year. I don’t see why, with the same basic roster, that he can’t do it for us for 2 or 3 more years, maybe more. But also look at what PJ Brown did for us at an older age and under some adverse circumstances. He became our Center when Perk was out of the game. I don’t think we would have won the championship without either of these players. This team is no longer looking at the future, but is looking at NOW. When now is over we’ll be back to where we were before last June. We keep talking about salary cap and luxury tax which is talking about money. I think everyone would have to agree that for the owners to make money, which is their right, they need to spend. Even if we have to overpay for James, considering that in 4 or 5 years he won’t be worth it, I think we need to do that. None of us knows what’s really going on. We hear that we are interested in Maggette as a “replacement” for Pose if we don’t sign him. Well he just isn’t. There isn’t a player in the league who can replace him on the current roster. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I think we need James and hope we are able to get him back. It doesn’t guarantee another championship, but based on the information we have it’s our best chance. (I’m also not a fan of the way the Sox and Patriots (especially the Patriots) do things. I think loyalty to a player who gave his all for us means something. That’s what Red taught us.

by TrueGreen on Jul 8, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Posey embodied the word, “Ubuntu”, he would take our offer and allow us to use the MLE to strengthen the rest of the team. This squad has gaps. If we overpay Posey with the full MLE, we will only be able to sign help to the vet min.

Also… Did Posey really pass up better offers last year? It was late in free agency and he still didn’t have a team. I think he got paid what he’s worth.

by LarBrd33 on Jul 8, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I feel bad for those teams that are scrambling to create cap space to make a run at LeBron and Wade or whoever else is out there in ‘10. I remember Chicago did this in an attempt to get Duncan a while back – didn’t quite work out. I’d love to see these guys stay with their current teams and leave those loser teams out in the cold.

My hope is that the Cs can rebuild on the fly with some shrewd trades over the next couple of years to avoid lotteryland.

by ChiefDK on Jul 8, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Give Posey 5.8M for 4 yrs. If he want to hold out for a 5th year or somebody else wants to pay that- goodbye.

As Wade says, those in the locker room know Posey’s true greatness. I don’t give him that 5th year but I don’t think he demands it either. We need his guts, attitude, expertise. Championships are made with guys like Posey. If we can’t keep Posey or land Maggatte, I think we may be taking a step backwards. We didn’t have such a large margin for error in the playoffs as it was.

Come on owners, step it up; I’ll go out and buy a couple of extra Celtic jerseys.

by docextension on Jul 8, 2008 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LarBrd33 said:
If Posey embodied the word, “Ubuntu”, he would take our offer and allow us to use the MLE to strengthen the rest of the team. This squad has gaps. If we overpay Posey with the full MLE, we will only be able to sign help to the vet min.

Also… Did Posey really pass up better offers last year? It was late in free agency and he still didn’t have a team. I think he got paid what he’s worth.

If Posey wants more money than we are willing to give and feels he would be happy playing for another team that’s his choice. Ubuntu applies to the entire team and organization. The organization needs to adhere to Ubuntu and sign Posey. As to Posey passing up a better offer last year to come here, it was reported he was ready to sign with the Nets when Danny got him just in time. If Posey was given the full MLE we can still strengthen our team by signing other players and just pay more in luxury tax. Nothing is stopping us if it’s thought there was a player out there to break the bank for. People here want a winner or at least a team that can compete for another championship. Losing Posey decreases that chance. He’s a perfect fit here. There may be better players out there, but I don’t see a better fit here than James Posey.

by TrueGreen on Jul 8, 2008 7:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs