Bucks On Winding Path With Uncertain End

by Steve Weinman on Aug 15, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in NBA Comment 9 comments

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Among the franchises whose fans can't be all too happy right now, the Bucks might not be at the top of the list, but it's hard to imagine they aren't in the top few.

This team still doesn't seem to have completely picked a direction yet, and it looks once more as though the Bucks are headed into no man's land.

The latest wrinkle comes with the Mo Williams-to-Cleveland trade, rumor of which was discussed in this space early Wednesday from the Cavs' perspective. ESPN reported later that day that the three-way deal was completed, with the Bucks moving Williams to Cleveland and Desmond Mason to Oklahoma City and receiving Luke Ridnour, Damon Jones and Adrian Griffin in return. The Bucks continue to keep Michael Redd's name as far away from trade talks as possible.

All of this only seems to further demonstrate the depth of the problems in Milwaukee.

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This is a team currently built around a core without a championship-level centerpiece that can't seem to decide which way to go with its pieces.

A year ago, former GM Larry Harris signed Mo Williams to a lucrative six-year extension after a very productive season for the then-fourth-year point guard. Williams certainly didn't seem to be more problem than solution this past season, going for 17.2 points and 6.3 assists to go with a career-best 56.6 percent true shooting. The guy had another career year after getting his mega-deal, which means that he certainly did poorly on the aptitude tests for the Mark Blount School of Hustle and Soft Knocks.

While Williams certainly has his flaws as a point guard -- he is decidedly shoot-first, turns the ball over a bit much, hadn't been tremendously efficient prior to this season and simplly isn't an elite floor general -- he performed about as well as anyone on this team a season ago, and the Bucks certainly didn't upgrade at the point with this move. Luke Ridnour's once-promising career seems to have stagnated as he averages just 12.3 points and 6.8 assists per 36 minutes for his career, and his true shooting is a decidedly disappointing 50.2 percent. Ramon Sessions showed promise down the stretch last season with a couple of nights of gaudy production as the Bucks played out the string, but the sample size was certainly a bit small, and he remains unproven as a man to permanently lead a squad's offense. So the belief here remains that new GM John Hammond didn't like Williams enough to uphold the long-term commitment that Harris made and wanted to get out of the monster contract (five years and $43 million remaining) as soon as possible.

But that still seems odd, because the Bucks also made a move to pick up salary this off-season, which was the big draft day trade that brought Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee. In that move, Hammond also gave up on Harris pick Yi Jianlian after just one season in order to move Bobby Simmons' $20.5 million over the next two seasons and acquire Jefferson and his $42 million over the next three seasons. The Bucks have also shown no impetus to move Michael Redd (owed $51 million over three more seasons) and have young center Andrew Bogut on the books through 2014 at nearly $67 million.

The problem here would seem to be that this team has a lot of salary locked into its key players, but it isn't going to be going much too far with that group. Redd has become one of the league's better scorers, but he has never been accused of guarding anybody, and questions have arisen over the past two years in Milwaukee as to whether it benefits this team to keep building around him. As of yet, there hasn't been a definitive answer in the affirmative.

Jefferson is a second banana at best. He is a good scorer but not a great one. He is a palatable rebounder (5.4 per game for his career) but nothing special for a 6-foot-7 swingman. He is a decent passer, and he is a good defender, but he isn't great in either area. On a team with a more complete star than Redd, Jefferson would become a player of far greater value as a number two guy. Andrew Bogut continues to get better, but questions remain about his ceiling.

The handling of the issue of youth remains confusing as well. On the night Jefferson was acquired to fill the small forward void, the Bucks drafted two more in Joe Alexander and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. In the meantime, they also made veteran acquisitions this summer such as Tyronn Lue, Malik Allen and Francisco Elson. The team will have to continue overpaying Dan Gadzuric for the next three seasons as well. What is left unknown is who exactly the big-time future of this team is. Alexander is projected to be a solid player but not a star at the NBA level, and he'll be playing behind Jefferson for now . Charlie Villanueva has been a disappointment since being acquired from Toronto two summers ago. The hope seems to be then that Bogut will mature into a beast.

The Bucks add salary, and then they drop salary. They have a three-player core that seems to pale in comparison to most others around the league, and neither the supporting cast nor youth outlook seem like much to write home about at this point. Certainly appears as though what direction this team is going in is anyone's guess.

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im a luke ridnour believer, i think his confidence got shot in seattle with how much they yanked his minutes around. he’s not a defensive specialist, but he’s definetly more of a true point guard than mo williams. I think Mo Williams is a good player, but not worth the contract they gave him last year.

by Celtic Justice on Aug 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yep, the bucks are one heck of an enigma. i echo your sentiments steve, i have no idea what their overall scheme seems to be. there’s not enough talent to win, theres not enough young talent to trade, there’s just simply not enough in milwaukee. call it their team motto if you wish.

the one thought I have is that they think perhaps they can win with a group of solid complementary players – kind of like the pistons, and hope one of them develops into the go to guy in crunch time (like billups). Redd is a shooter, Ridnour is a passer, Bogut is a prototypical big man, and Jefferson is a scrapper who gets to the line. A lot of complementary pieces…..that simply arent good enough in my opinion to mesh into a cohseive unit capable of working their way into the playoffs. And they have nowhere to go in the future either. There’s no way the bucks stick with this team if they continue to lose which they will, and that leaves them in rebuilding mode for a long while. Oh well. At least CC’s in town.

by Slick on Aug 15, 2008 1:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mo Williams was an overwhelming negative to the side. Getting rid of that player, and getting rid of his contract, is of huge benefit to the Bucks. Luke Ridnour is far better suited to running the show for Milwaukee and will get more out of the Bucks offensive weapons than Mo did. Unfortunately he’s also a lousy a defensive player so no gains on that end of the court.

The Mo Williams trade was a win-win on all counts. Winning now and restructuring the team later on. Great stuff, no complaints about there.

Very much in agreement with the overall message of the article. The Bucks roster changes have left me befuddled. What exactly are they trying to accomplish? To win 35-42 games?

They ranked 30th in the league in defensive efficiency last season. Where is the help?

They got their rear ended kicked in the paint last season. Where’s the help for Bogut?

Show us your intentions concerning Ramon Sessions? Is he the guy, is he the starter, the backup? Why take back a proven player like Ridnour if he’s the starter? Why sign Ty Lue who clearly is arriving to play? What’s the plan guys? Fill us in?

Why trade for RJ and draft Alexander and Mbah-a-Moute?

Why this trio of Redd-RJ-Bogut who are clearly not good enough to contend for a title?

Why add RJ when the club and fans have been hammering Redd for being incapable as a passer/playmaker on the wing? How does that fit in? Great now the Bucks have two 20ppg scorers who can’t create a shot for any of their teammates.

What’s your impressions on Charlie V? Is he the long term answer? Why is he better than Yi?

What’s the plan Bucks GM John Hammond? Inquiring minds want to know. Fill us in kind sir.

I’d hate to be a Bucks fan right now. How can you be excited by a 35-41 win team that is visibly going nowhere and has a management that’s offering no hope or direction for when that’s going to change.

by Who on Aug 15, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The trade was neccessary in my opinion. Mo Williams is not a fit next to Redd. He might be next to LeBron, but in Milwaukee everything went downhill with the trade of TJ Ford.

by Mahoney_jr on Aug 15, 2008 2:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The answer is simple: they’re trying to rebuild because they’re essentially the Knicks of the Midwest.

Mo Williams is the classic example of a player who looks good to everyone else until you have him on your team. To say he is “inefficient” is a drastic understatement. His numbers are going to PLUMMET in Cleveland; it’s going to be another Larry Hughes experiment all over again. Believe me when I say that this was a naked salary dump, and Hammond could have gotten back $20 and a ham sandwich and Milwaukee would have been better off for it. And to be able to get rid of Mason as well, who was a nice enough player but definitely overpaid, AND get a whole bunch of contracts that are done in a year or two? I’m still trying to figure out how that’s legal under the CBA.

Sessions is a nice guy, and he’s certainly grateful to be there. But I’ve watched him play, and his small success has only been because he’s a novelty. By next season, he’s going to be solved, and it won’t be pretty for him.

Just like the Williams deal, the RJ deal can’t be just judged on its numbers. Yi worked great on the roster in video games, but in real life his skills weren’t very useful in the Bucks’ scheme. He may turn out to be a great player, but he was never going to be one in Milwaukee. Jefferson, on the other hand, can defend better than Yi and is more of a true 3. But even beyond that, Jefferson is a better player off the ball than Yi was, and he brings a culture of success from the Kidd-Jefferson-Martin and Kidd-Carter-Jefferson days. That may sound corny, but at least he comes close to earning his money, whereas Simmons can’t possibly be worth his.

Charlie V is gone as soon as they can get a decent 4 in return (why they didn’t take Smith is beyond me; he would have done well for Milwaukee again). Redd is going to get traded. You can mark my words on that. His value has gone up since the Olympics. But even though it’s what they NEED to do, don’t think that Milwaukee people don’t love Redd. His problem is that they offered him too nice of a contract; I don’t fault him for taking it, but there’s no way someone who is a pure shooter should be making what he makes. Hence, because he makes that kind of cash, people want him to be more than what he is: a pure scorer in the Reggie Miller vein. But my point is that if no one here would blindly believe Ainge when he’s claimed players “will never be traded” (cough cough Antoine cough cough), why is it impossible that this is Hammond trying to build up his value by making Redd seem ungettable? As for Bogut being around still, it’s simple: No one wants to trade for a foul-prone $67 million center. They overvalued him, pure and simple, and it was a HUGE mistake they’d like to take back. I hate Bogut with a passion, because he only looks like he’s being effective; he’s the first one to bail on a fast break coming at them.

I can’t for the life of me see why people keep assuming Mbah a Moute is going to play the 3 in the NBA. He’s going to be an undersized 4, and he was drafted as such. But, I mean, he’s a second rounder, and it wasn’t like the options were incredible after him. If he sucks, they get rid of him after 2 years. Alexander? I don’t know enough about his game to conclude he was or wasn’t going to be a good fit, but at least now he can sit and learn for a little bit and get some time. Again, if you assume 96 minutes at the 3 and 4, Alexander can still get 20-25 minutes a game, which is all he needs to play his first year. That was his knock coming out, wasn’t it? That he was still raw? Why not let him learn a bit his first year and take the pressure off of him? And the veteran signings have all been short term low-money signings, when last I checked. I LOVE the Elson deal; we need someone who can board and defend Centers, and Bogut sure wasn’t doing it, so why not get Elson? He doesn’t need to be any focal point in the offense; he’s happy being the glue guy.

Bottom line: Hammond’s been in charge for a very short time, and he’s had a VERY big mess to deal with. He’s doing the smart thing in recognizing that they need to get out from under bad contracts. Aside from Jefferson, what other major financial commitment has he taken on? Before we accuse the Bucks of lacking direction, let’s give him a year or two to try to get out from under the mess Harris made and see if Jefferson really does do a good job (as I suspect he will).

by BUTerrier on Aug 15, 2008 4:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Bucks should have drafted Bayless. He’s likely to be as good or better than Mayo. Bayless could very well be as good as D Wade, though probably not quite the passer. But he’s a guy who will be able to create his own shot all day, and that go to guy you can build around.

They then could have traded Williams, Redd, or both, as Bayless would have been an upgrade over either. Instead they draft a guy who will always be playing behind a 35-40 minute guy. They might as well have traded down and grabbed Robin Lopez for some defensive help.

It’s hard to blame them for trading for Jefferson, and hard to blame them for trading Williams and dumping salary generally.

It’s possible Ridnour, Redd, Bogut and Jefferson make for a well balanced and effective offense. I just think they wasted a draft pick when they could have had a future all star in Bayless.

Nice article Steve.

by arambone on Aug 15, 2008 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know if Mo Williams will suffer in Cleveland the way Larry Hughes did. Larry struggled because there was no movement, either ball or player movement, which was necessary for his slashing game and to make best use of perimeter skills. The lack of movement also forced him into a standstill player, and a standstill shoot, which clearly wasn’t ever his strength. Mo Williams on the other hand can play off the ball, he is a good perimeter shooter, and he can score in the situations the Cavs put him. In terms of style of play …. Mo absolutely does suit Cleveland and Cleveland suits Mo. It’s one of the best situations he could land in because he has LeBron next to him to run the show.

The question remains to how good Mo Williams is though. His first two seasons starting in the league he was padding his stats on lottery squads and performing very poorly in comparison against playoff teams. Particularly his scoring and FG%. That changed last year, as did his overall scoring efficiency. Was it an aberration or has Mo developed into a more consistent scorer? It’s too early to tell and it’s certainly a big question mark.

by Who on Aug 15, 2008 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, OKC is excited….

They get Desmond Mason back into town (previously a Hornet)

The fans here in Oklahoma are through the roof on this trade (wanted Tony Allen, but that didn’t work out—so, got another Ok State defensive specialist in Desmond).

by Nanc on Aug 15, 2008 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What’s the plan Bucks GM John Hammond? Inquiring minds want to know. Fill us in kind sir

My guess: find character guys who want to be in that team, live in Wisconsin and work hard in the gym. Guys who fit Skiles. Besides this, I very much agree with BUTerrier: that club was such a mess that they can’t do it all in a pre-season. Assembling a group of good teammates, who give it every night, it’s not a bad place to start.

by cordobes on Aug 18, 2008 6:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs