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Considering Relative Values of Granger and Iggy

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Over the last few weeks, we've seen several young players ink long-term extensions with their prior teams.  Josh Smith will stay in Atlanta, Emeka Okafor in Charlotte, and at the rate of $80 million over six years, Andre Iguodala will remain in the fold in Philadelphia.

Next up could well be Indiana's Danny Granger.  The Pacers have until October to agree on an extension with Granger, or he will hit restricted free agency a summer from now.  Which means, of course, plenty of banter over how much Granger is worth.

Earlier this week, the Indianapolis Star's Mike Wells added some direction to that discussion by referencing a conversation with a league official who put Granger in Iguodala's class.

Wells also points out that the two players' stats this past season were remarkably similar, so now he's got us thinking.  But the belief here is that due to the differences both between the players and the situations of their current employers, giving Granger an equivalent payday to that of Iggy likely isn't the way to go for the Pacers at the present time.

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Star-divide

The point Wells makes about the closeness of statistical production is certainly true.  Iggy went for 19.9 points, 5.4 boards, 4.8 assists and 45.6 percent shooting last season, while Granger was 19.6-6.1-2.1-44.6.  Three points jump out here: Granger is the much better outside shooter, going for better than 40 percent from deep (true shooting of 57.1 percent) while Iguodala hit less than 33 percent of his threes (true shooting of 54.3 percent).  Iguodala does a lot more as far as assists are concerned, and from their styles of play, the differing assist numbers are in fact an accurate reflection of Iggy being a better distributor.  Finally, the Pacers were third in pace last year compared to nineteenth for the Sixers, which indicates that Granger's total stats could be at least a bit inflated from playing in Jim O'Brien's up-and-down system.

While Granger is principally a jump shooter from mid-range and the outside, Iguodala fits more into the slasher mold.  He is super-athletic, has the quick first step to get into the lane, finishes well in transition and is more explosive around the basket.  While both players are unselfish and hard-working, Iguodala's penetrating style and passing vision allow him to play an important role as a secondary facilitator to Andre Miller.  He dishes well and really helps to open up looks for his teammates.  Granger no doubt helps stretch the floor for the Pacers, but he doesn't do quite the same job drawing multiple defenders and distributing.

On the defensive end, Iguodala is fast establishing himself as one of the top perimeter stoppers in the game.  At 6-foot-6 and 207 pounds, Iguodala has both length and quickness on his side in addition to his tenacity, which is a major asset at that end of the floor in particular.  He is not only coming into his own as an offensive player but also the guy to guard top opposing swingmen on a nightly basis.  The 6-foot-8, 225 pound Granger is better suited to the three and four but a good defender in his own right.  He doesn't have quite the quickness or explosiveness that AI2 does though, and at this point, Iguodala likely gets the nod defensively.  

Finally, the differing situations of the the two teams come into play.  It's worth noting that the timing worked out perfectly for the Iguodala signing in Philadelphia principally because the Sixers had already established their long-term direction earlier in the summer.  Elton Brand is going to be the man for the foreseeable future, and with that squared away, Philly could spend what it needed on Andre Iguodala to complement him as a well-fitting second banana along with Andre Miller.  Having the star in place would seem to make picking a long-term direction and deciding how much to commit to certain players significantly easier.

On the other hand, the Pacers have no such luxury.  They are a team in flux right now.   The Jermaine O'Neal era is finally over, and Jamaal Tinsley is on his way out the door.  T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert are new in town, and Granger and Mike Dunleavy are the incumbent high scorers.  The problem here is that we're talking about two rookie commodities and three players who certainly haven't indicated that they are championship-type number one guys.  While Granger has improved markedly in each of his first three seasons, the book on him coming out of college was that he was going to be a solid-but-not-spectacular type of player, as of right now, that description fits him fairly well.  It seems likely that this guy is going to be an excellent second option throughout much if not all of his career, and this brings up the question of who the star is going to be in Indiana moving forward.  Until the Pacers can figure that out - and then how they want to build around said star - it might not be the best idea to be locking up supporting cast players long term at money that is all that high.

Danny Granger is undoubtedly one of the NBA's most promising youngsters at this point.  But Andre Iguodala has plenty of promise of his own, a better team and more passing skills.  Meanwhile, the Pacers' future remains a major question mark, and between that and Iguodala's wider skill set, holding off on offering Iggy money to Danny Granger might be the best course of action for the Pacers.

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Nice article, Steve. Hard to disagree with any of that. As I’m sure you know, I’m a big fan of AI2. The only major area I want to see him improve in is turnovers. He made some strides in that category this season, but he still had too many for my liking (2.6 per game, and 13 games with 5 or more turnovers). He could also work on his midrange game a bit, and could slightly improve his outside shooting. Those are just nit-picks, though; this kid is for certain one of the best young guys in the NBA, and I love seeing an up-and-coming player make such a commitment on the defensive end.

Granger is good; I just don’t see him as having the all-around potential of an Iguodala. He is no doubt a better shooter, and most likely always will be. To me, Granger will be a “solid but not spectacular” type of guy. Maybe I underrate him, but I see him as a slightly better version of Mike Miller. Is that so off-base?

by Roy_Hobbs on Aug 24, 2008 12:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Granger is the kind of player that will thrive in the right situation – and Indy is not it. For example, he would be perfect for the Lakers, Spurs, Houston as a do-it-all 3. That having been said, he is not worth 80 mil. More like 50 for 5 IMO.

by asterix on Aug 24, 2008 1:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Granger isn’t in Iggy’s class. It was a bad comparison by the scout.

Granger is most similar to Luol Deng out of the recent FA class. Deng got overpaid, lot of money for potential, so that shouldn’t be Granger’s ball park but it will be.

Iggy can create for his teammates which is something Granger has never come close to doing. That’s the biggest difference, and by itself it’s the separating factor.

Granger has also consistently failed in being the first option for the Pacers over the past two and a half seasons. I disagree on Granger being a good 2nd option. He’s a third option player right now. If you can’t create for your teammates and you’re only giving 18-20ppg (not prolific enough) you’re not good enough to be a quality second option. You’re just a guy who hits a few shots, not a go-to guy. Put him in playoff pressures and fail his teammates.

Granger has also struggled when forced to put the ball on the floor, he can’t create for himself at a high enough level when the opposition defense hones in on him.

Until Granger had a hot spell over the last two months of the season, Mike Dunleavy was leading the Pacers in scoring and was ahead of Granger in several other categories (all types of efficiency, assists). That describes where his game is at. Even with the hot spell he only out-scored Dunleavy by 0.5ppg overall.

Granger’s defense is also on the slightly above average scale rather than the standout scale that Iggy is on or the very good scale that Deng is on. Granger struggles with quick penetrators too often for me to give him a higher ranking, and has limited versatility in the types of scorers he can defend. He’s a good defender, not special. He really needs to be the second best defender on the wing, otherwise his team’s perimeter D will likely be soft, much like it is now. As a second option wing defender he’s very useful (like it was next to Stephen Jackson) and his defense can be a big factor.

Danny can still develop, like I just said, he had an encouraging finish to the season where for the first time he seemed to flourish as the marquee player on the floor. That short period is the only reason I haven’t completely written him off as a star player …. which I have been very close to doing over the past 18 months.

Indiana shouldn’t even for a second consider offering him more than $10mil a year on an extension. If he wants more, wait it out and find out for sure next season what he’s truly capable of. Do not pay for potential, his skill set doesn’t warrant it.

He’s a third option until he develops further. You don’t hurt your cap flexibility over a third option until you acquire the two players ahead of him.

by Who on Aug 24, 2008 3:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good article Steve. Granger and Iguodala? Both are at that step in young NBA player ‘evolution’. They are trying via their agent to convince that they deserve ‘Star Money’ for the next contract. They are presenting their bonafides. Iggy playing for a team on the rise should get the edge here.

Who, you nailed it IMO about both players. The Pacers may need to trade Granger to get more pieces and unload bad contracts. Sucks to be a good player on a bad team, Danny. Iggy will be a key guy on a winner, learning as the second banana behind Brand.

Tough times ahead for Granger? We will see. 8)

by billysan on Aug 24, 2008 6:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I see it as:
Granger is to Iguodala as
Joe Johnson is to Paul Pierce.

look at how similar Pierce and Johnson’s numbers are; no one is going to rationally argue that Johnson is better than Pierce, and in fact Pierce’s PER is substantially higher than Johnson’s; same for Granger and Iggy.

by Fan from VT on Aug 24, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting topic and good assessment.

I give the edge to Iggy over Granger because he’s a far better defender. Offensively, I like Granger more and I think he has better potential. For the past two seasons, he never had a decent PG and a decent post player playing along him with consistency. Also, was forced to guard the opponent best player most of the time. I agree he’s not a Batman, rather a Robin; but Iggy is the same kind of player.

Now, when it comes to contracts, there’s an issue that must be considered: Grange’s value for the Pacers franchise. They have a huge image problem and the reason is not entirely their W/L percentage. In fact, that’s not even the biggest part of it.

Grange is a high character guy. He’s a great teammate, coachable and a hard worker. He’s not a criminal, nor friend of criminals. Not only that, he’s a likable person, well-spoken, a family guy, a philanthropist and a christian. He’s not only the Pacers best player but the one they are trying to promote as the franchise face in this new era. That’s why I think he is at least as valuable to them as Iggy is for Philly, even if he’s not as good on the court. If they let him walk, I can see Seattle having a new team in town quicker than expected.

by cordobes on Aug 24, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

iguodala is the better player- does more things-no doubt, but ai is a bit overrated and dg is a bit underrated.

by nazzbo on Aug 24, 2008 6:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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