"The past six NBA champs each failed to defend their title."

Per ESPN "experts" 

Is it L.A.'s turn again?

Yes, it is, according to about half of our panel of 25 ESPN writers, editors and contributors.

Just as they have been throughout most of NBA history, the Los Angeles Lakers are a force again -- and now the preseason favorites to win NBA title No. 15.

Of course, that means 13 members of our panel predicted the Lakers will not win the 2008-09 NBA championship, and the top challenger in our voting will surprise some: the up-and-coming New Orleans Hornets, not the Boston Celtics.

These guys are some of the luckiest people on the planet.  I mean, they make dumb observations and get paid to spew their ignorance?  Where can I apply?

Aside from the pure nonsense that the Lakers will win it all this year and that their biggest challengers will be the frikkin' Hornets and not the Celtics, here's what they had to drivel about the Celtics' chances of repeating this year and my "humble" reaction to their, um, analysis.

The Celtics might win the 2008-09 NBA title if ...

• They continue to be the top defensive club in the league.

• Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo take their games to the next level.

• They can get strong contributions from the likes of Eddie House, Leon Powe, Glen Davis … and (yes) Darius Miles.

Not much to argue here.  But I think our success will depend the most on everyone's health again this year.  I don't expect all of our starters to play 82 games but if they're all healthy going into the playoffs, then you can expect the C's with championship experience under their belt to turn it up a notch and crush their opponents.  And because they stumbled in their early rounds and struggled last year, don't expect the same mental lapses that caused them to go 7 games against inferior competition this time around.  Also...

• Don't expect Ray Allen to go through his shooting slump again.  
  
• Don't expect KG to play passive.  
  
• Don't expect Rondo and Perk to show their inexperience.  
  
• Don't expect lack of chemistry.  
  
• Don't expect the bench to let up.  
  
• But do always expect Pierce to step up big when everything is on the line and close the deal.  
  

Yes.  The C's are dominant and will be for the next two years at least.

The Celtics might not win the 2008-09 NBA title if ...

• They can't find someone to make up for the loss of specialist James Posey.

• The big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen start showing their age.

I'll miss James Posey but I think our team's growth from their championship run will be more than enough to cover his absence from the team.  In fact, I'd argue that the C's will be better this year than last year because they know what it takes to win now.  Last year, Posey was the only player in our rotation that had a ring.  This year, everyone has one.  Doesn't that count for something?  And I'm tired of hearing how our Big 3 are all old and gray.  What are they smoking?  Michael Jordan dominated until he was 38 and would've probably won at least 2 more rings had he not retired for the second time after his sixth championship.  Granted, no one on our team equals His Airness, but we're talking about three superstars in their early 30s who all take great pride in their conditioning.  So I just don't get all these age concerns.

• The champs become complacent after winning their rings. The past six NBA champs each failed to defend their title.

Yeah.  Keep doubting this team.  We all know how that turned out last year.  And looks to me like the C's are right back to where they were last year.  Hmm...