An Improved Outlaw Coming Soon?
A Daily Babble Production
Jason Quick over at The Oregonian has written an excellent piece on Blazers forward Travis Outlaw and his hometown of Starkville, Miss. It's a very well-reported story, and it provides a lot of depth about the player and his personal background. But the part that jumps out is Outlaw's commentary on his aspirations for the seasons to come.
Quick quotes Outlaw talking about how while he is primarly concerned with helping the team win, he isn't entirely comfortable with the role of sixth man and doesn't want to be stuck with it forever. He's worried about his shot attempts dropping with the entrances of Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez to the second team backcourt, and he would like to have some more freedom from Nate McMillan to shoot the jumper.
All of this comes with a promise from Outlaw that observers will see a much better player this season, that he'll be a better scorer and rebounder in the year to come.
He'll need to do exactly that if he wants to become a starter in this league.
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From Quick's piece and all I've heard about Outlaw, he sounds like a good enough guy, and even the comments about his desire for more playing time and a more prominent role don't come off all that selfishly. Outlaw makes it clear that he likes the team he is on and wants to be a part of a winner in Portland. That he wants a larger personal role is natural.
But until his production rises dramatically, it will be hard to justify having him in any greater role than his current one.
Outlaw is a 6-foot-9, 210-pound string bean who comes off the bench at both forward spots for the Blazers, though he played primarily at the four last year. With his long reach and slender build, Outlaw has the figure of a slasher, and he has shown in flashes the ability to attack the rim hard and wreak havoc on opposing defenses. In the final two games of the team's rough 2006-07 campaign, Outlaw totaled 36 trips to the free throw line, hitting on 34 of those attempts. He had two games with double-digit trips to the line in 2007-08 and five more in which he took at least eight free-throw attempts.
But that's been far more exception than norm for Outlaw. For the most part, the five-year vet has preferred to settle for being a jump shooter offensively, and he hasn't done it with any particular efficacy. With his high-release and occasionally hitched jumper, Outlaw has put up just a 44.2 percent field-goal accuracy and, more glaringly, a 50.2 percent true shooting mark for his career, finishing below the 50 percent mark in three of his five seasons. Outlaw doesn't shoot the ball all that efficiently, takes less than two three-pointers per game (he greatly improved to 39.6 percent from there last year) and isn't a huge volume scorer either. His 13.3 points per game (18.0 per 36 minutes) last year set a new career high. While it's nice to have the sort of scoring Outlaw provided off the bench, he did his work in what were practically starter minutes (26.7 per game) and took 11.7 shots per game, ranking him behind only Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge on the Blazers.
Further, Outlaw has been particularly unimpressive on the boards. He averaged just 4.6 per game (6.2 per 36 minutes) last season, and that was a career high. That isn't a great mark for a small forward, and it's a poor mark for a power forward. While it's a tough situation for Outlaw in that he is a bit big for the three and not quite bulky enough for the four, he simply needs to be more productive on the glass if he is going to make himself into a bigger-deal player in the league. He's also got the physique to become a very good defender, but it's worth noting that the team was 4.5 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with him on the floor than off it a season ago.
Quick reports that Outlaw has set a goal of 16 points and 8 rebounds per game for himself this year. If he can put up that sort of production and do his scoring with greater efficacy, he could prove himself a very valuable piece to the Blazers. With more driving - though he says he loves relying on the jumper - more trips to the foul line and better use of his long wingspan and leaping ability on the glass, he has the potential to acheive those goals. But until that time comes, Travis Outlaw will remain a likable but mediocre part of one of the Association's most promising young teams.
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Informative piece Steve. Rich man’s Tony Allen, poor man’s Stephen Jackson. Though I do think he has a tremendous ceiling and could easily become a valuable starter on a good team in this league.
Outlaw was a key player in the Blazers unexpected run of productivity the past season. He grinded it out and was a hustler – creating turnovers and wreaking havoc on the defensive and offensive end (with his slashing and getting to the line). No matter what role he plays he adds a quick punch to teams that in today’s game are desperately are looking for one – which is why right now he will be confined to the bench.
by Slick on Sep 3, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, Steve, thanks for bringing us info about players, situations and scenarios we might not otherwise read about. Since I don’t usually comment on them (because I don’t have anything of value to add), I just wanted to show my appreciation for them.
by Cousin It on Sep 3, 2008 1:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m a bit worried about Outlaw. He seems overly reliant on being a power forward in order to be effective for my comfort.
There’s definitely some talent there, he has a lovely shot, can create his own shot at a high level. He’s also clutch, he hit several big shots last year and was actually leading the team in fourth quarter scoring until late in the season. Too one dimensional though.
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As a power forward he leaves a lot to be desired. He’s below average on the backboards for a small forward, for a power forward he’s awful. Portland were a very strong rebounding team whenever Outlaw was off the floor, but the minute he came in at power forward the sunk badly. There’s just as many problems with him defensively at the four.
Obviously the huge advantage is his speed, handle, jump shot, penetration at power forward. He’s an incredibly difficult matchup for power forwards.
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Slot him as a small forward and the same defensive questions remain. He hasn’t defended that position well enough either. How much will Oden/Aldridge help there? How much can he develop his own defense? Lot of questions. His rebounding becomes less important but still needs improvement.
Offensively he’s only a scorer. He doesn’t create for his teammates and doesn’t put the defense under any pressure unless he’s shooting. The efficiency is also a worry. Doesn’t get to the line enough either. Too many jump shots (84% of his baskets).
Slot him at small forward and suddenly his handle and penetration become average. That little two dribble pull up he loves will be much harder to create with a quicker defender in his face. The impact of his jump shooting will also fall because he’s no longer pulling the opponents big man out of the lane.
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So many questions with Travis Outlaw. You’d hate to give up on him at this stage because despite the questions there is some really interesting tools there, if they developed you’d have one heck of a player. I think in the end though, Portland will get a trade offer that’s too good and too certain to turn down. The opportunity to package Travis and get a top notch point or small forward. Someone to be their final piece.
I’ve been thinking about it on and off over the summer and I’m really unsure about how the Blazers should handle Travis here. Be patient or move him while his value is high. Very tough decision.
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I think the biggest question for Outlaw and Webster is who can defend the small forward spot the best. Whoever does that will win the job and stay long term in Portland. The loser is unlikely to stay.
by Who on Sep 3, 2008 1:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey Cousin It,
Much thanks for the kind words. They’re much appreciated. Really, it’s a privilege for me to have the opportunity to write in this space and to play the small part I do in this community. Thanks to you and your fellow readers for taking me in.
-sw
by Steve Weinman on Sep 3, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i like the reference to allen and jackson that slick makes. he has his holes but he could be a slashing james posey for the blazers.
by nazzbo on Sep 3, 2008 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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