Curious About Expectations For Big Former Buckeye

by Steve Weinman on Sep 6, 2008 12:00 AM EDT in NBA Comment 4 comments

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The NBA's most anticipated draft pick since LeBron James in 2003 - and the game's most anxiously awaited big man in quite some time - had to wait an extra year, but reports out of Portland indicate that Greg Oden is on pace to make his regular season professional debut as expected come late October. That makes this as ripe a time as ever to start wondering about what to look for from the big man from Ohio State in the season to come.

This is a player who has been a national celebrity since the midst of his high school days at the absolute latest. He has been heralded as a once-in-a-lifetime sort of big man who has the potential to be a centerpiece on championship teams for years to come.

On the other hand, he's also had his share of injury problems over the last few seasons, was good but not spectacular in just one year of college ball and hasn't played in NBA competition beyond a couple of summer league games more than a years ago. On top of that, he still has the look of a guy who can't be too far away from receiving AARP discounts.

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There has been so much hype surrounding this guy's arrival that I'm honestly not even sure where to start with expectations for him. It would have been hard to know what to look for even if he had played last season, and it's even harder to figure it out now that we don't know how much the effects of his knee injury will linger.

The first issue is minutes. Sure, he's expected to come in and take the starting center's job right away, but there are plenty of factors that could limit his time on the floor. The fact that he is returning from a significant injury could make the team careful about putting too much strain on the big man for fear of aggravating any of the problems from the last year. As a 7-footer packing possibly as many as 280 pounds on his frame, playing in full speed NBA games for the first time could cause him some fatigue issues. It's also worth remembering that Oden experienced a lot of concern with fouls in his short summer league stint in 2007, and he could be limited by foul trouble this season.

As for his time on the floor, the guess here is that Oden will be far more comfortable defensively early on. He is a natural shot-blocker and interior defensive presence with great timing and strength down low. As long as he adapts to the NBA's defensive three second rule that will prevent him from simply sitting in the lane, he should be able to become a presence on that end right away. He'll likely be a bit tentative at times because of foul trouble, and he'll have to adjust to the fact that the NBA's frontcourt players are both quicker and stronger than those he played against at the collegiate level. But he should be able to make a difference for the Blazers inside and to make his presence known on the glass as well.

Offensively, it could take some time for Oden to really become acclimated to the pro game. Though he occasionally busted out some nicer, more finesse-oriented moves in college, he needs to improve his touch around the rim and on his baby jumpers. He'll also face the challenge of no longer being simply larger than everyone else inside, which means that he won't have as many opportunities to finish easy dunks around the rim. Oden isn't a selfish player, and his passing skills should transfer well from previous levels while his scoring remains an uncertainty.

So the questions abound. How quickly will Greg Oden adapt to the NBA game? As far as staying on the court is concerned? Foul trouble? Becoming a presence at each end of the floor?

What sort of production is fair to expect from both Oden and his team? Is a double-double realistic? Would it be sufficient? What about 15 and 11? Or 17 and 12? And most significantly, how much better will he make this Portland team?

We've got a few guesses above, but by and large, label me as uncertain as the rest of the field on this one. How about you?

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no idea. but if forced to guess, this would be a learning curve year for greg and getting used to the wear and tear of the game. so i’d expect 8 and 5, while possibly gaining on 14 10 territory toward the late stages of the season. don’t forget, there are other scoring options in portland, they’ve just come off a very productive year. his defensive presence should in theory be a huge lift, but if you think about it further, pryzbilla is known to be a tough inside presence on d – so how much better do they actually get down low in oden’s first season?

by Slick on Sep 6, 2008 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

microfracture surgery (what oden apparently had) is a sort of last resort for an athlete who’s knee has been damaged internally (cartalige lining the inside of the knee bones). Its still a relatively new procedure.

the success rates are not all that high. sometimes recovery is good other times its not. lots of time away from sport is needed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microfracture_surgery

But oden is young and they have given him 12 months. I would think predicting his value this upcoming season is a tough thing to do right now not having seen his level of comfort on the knee. And also not knowing how bad it was in the first place makes it hard too..

by 00dc2 on Sep 6, 2008 1:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Seems like a great kid really….but I have a feeling he will never live up to the hype…Sam Bowie all over again.

by MaxwellSmart on Sep 6, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How quickly will Greg Oden adapt to the NBA game? [/quote]

There will be lots of different levels of acclimation. He’ll be useful and an impact player from day one. I think it will take him until Christmas to reach the majority of his current abilities, possibly late Jan. From there he’ll gradually get stronger and stronger as his comfort on the court grows, and as he learns just how dominant he can be ….. I think he’ll peak in the playoffs.

If his conditioning isn’t good enough he might tail off at the end of the season but I think the Blazers will have him ready to go. Portland also have good depth and quality so the burden won’t be as high night in night out. I think he’ll be fine but it is something to watch for.

I’d be very patient over the first two months. Portland’s early schedule is brutal too, which only makes the early transition harder for Greg.
[quote]
As far as staying on the court is concerned? Foul trouble?[/quote]
No concerns. He’ll be fine
[quote]Becoming a presence at each end of the floor?[/quote]
Oden will be that as a rookie, their will be the odd offensive burst early on but I see it evening out (more consistent) as I said above – around Christmas or January.
[quote]What sort of production is fair to expect from both Oden and his team? Is a double-double realistic? Would it be sufficient? What about 15 and 11? Or 17 and 12?[/quote]
A double-double is realistic as long as he gets the minutes. If they keep his minutes down around 28-30 maybe not, if it’s up around 34-36 then I think a double double is realistic. Having Joel Przybilla there will allow Nate McMillan to bring Greg along as slowly as he wishes. Also, Aldridge and Frye are both good rebounders so that will eat into his boards numbers also. The points don’t really concern me, I think he’ll clear double digits comfortably.

My expectations are 13-15ppg, 9-11rpg, 2bpg.

If Portland wasn’t such a talented and deep team my expectations for Oden’s stat line would be higher.
[quote]And most significantly, how much better will he make this Portland team?

Greg Oden is going to turn Portland into a quiet but potent contender in the West.

They’ll get a lot of credit for how they’re playing but they will also get written off … with far too many people spending time looking at their ages and W-L record and not enough time considering how tough a matchup they are for every single team come playoff time out West. They’re second (behind LA) in my West power rankings.

I expect them to be one of the best rebounding teams. One of the better defensive teams. An offense that will have good efficiency, but it’s real strength will lie in it’s diversity which will show up stronger in the playoffs. Two post options. A very good top trio. Inside-Out game with Aldridge/Oden and Roy. Effectively (Roy) two point guards in the starting lineup, which helps their execution tremendously (regularly a failing point for young teams). Lot of shooters. Big men that can shoot. One of the deepest teams in the league. Can go big or play small ball with comfort. Very flexible. Excellent Head Coach in Nate McMillan and a great group of assistants.

Greg Oden is going to be the biggest reason for that jump, for Portland becoming a quiet but potent contender.

by Who on Sep 6, 2008 1:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs