Nine To Watch In '09
A Daily Babble Production
Welcome to 2009 here at CelticsBlog! Hope you all had a pleasurable time celebrating the turn of the calendar. We closed 2008 yesterday with a list of eight takeaway thoughts from the year that was in the NBA. Today marks the latter portion of our two-list miniseries, highlighting nine not-exactly-superstars (yet for some, ever for others) worth watching on in the 12 months to come. As always, we'll welcome your thoughts in the comments on which eye-catchers for '09 we've missed. Into the new year we plunge...
1. O.J. Mayo
As my father said recently, "I tend not to like wackos." I spent a lot of time making my thoughts quite clear on the Grizzlies' guard's behavior during his pre-collegiate days, the short-short version being that I wanted no part of Mayo's ref-, opponent-, teammate- and other-human-baiting antics, on or off the court. That said, after being pleasantly surprised with the way he carried himself this summer at the draft (though it certainly doesn't wipe away the past), I can't help but be intrigued by his tremendous skill set. The guy is already scoring 20 points per game, shooting better than 40 percent from deep and posting a true shooting mark of 56.2 percent. He can play multiple positions. He's got an outside shot, an explosiveness around the rim and some touch on his tear drop. Mayo's arsenal is insane, and it's only going to get better. Watching the Grizz regularly has recently become my latest League Pass addiction, and Mayo is the primary reason why. If he can behave himself, he's going to be a star sooner rather than later.
2. Jameer Nelson
Great college player at St. Joseph's who I long believed didn't get enough credit for the toughness and strength in his compact frame and his willingness to work. Fittingly, it would be once I finally began to give up on expecting him to break out that he jumped a level. The Magic's point guard is having the best season of his career, averaging 16.7 points, 5.2 assists and 61.3 percent true shooting. He just finished a month in which he posted 19.3 points and 5.3 assists per game on 56.2 percent field-goal shooting and 57.4 percent three-point shooting. If Nelson can continue to play anywhere near his current level, he'll not only raise his personal stock exponentially, but he could also prove himself the man to take an already-dangerous Magic team to the next level.

3. Daniel Gibson
The 26-5 Cavs sit at second in basketball in offensive efficiency (to complement their second-ranked defense), and that's with their career 40 percent three-point shooter checking in at 31.8 percent from beyond the arc this season. What happens when Gibson finds his stroke again is anyone's guess. Opposing coaches need another Cleveland shooter to stretch the floor for LeBron et al. like they need a hole in the head.
4. Andrew Bogut
Toiling away in Milwaukee, the former number one pick has quietly turned himself into a solid performer in the pivot for Scott Skiles' Bucks. He is averaging a double-double for the first time in his career (11.5 points and 10.7 boards per game), and he is shooting better than 55 percent from the field to boot. On the defensive end, Bogut is holding opposing centers to 48.4 percent effective field goal shooting, and the Bucks are more than eight points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the court than off. He'll probably never be the player that certain point guards drafted after him in 2005 are and will be, but he is playing efficient basketball and continuing to improve. At a position without a lot of true studs, that makes the big man from down under an intriguing commodity.
5. Trevor Ariza
I know how much Celtics fans are itching to hear good things about anyone in purple and gold, but Ariza's play will play a vital role in determining the potency of the Lakers' bench come springtime. He is having the best season of his career, posting 9.1 points and 5.1 boards in barely 24 minutes of play per game, and he is putting up a 54.9 percent true shooting mark as well. Ariza still doesn't have a jump shot to write home about, but he has explosiveness around the rim, and he is a big-time hustle guy for the Lake Show. The man has good quickness and length and has played tight defense all year, holding opposing small forwards to 48.1 percent effective field goal shooting. The Lakers are 3.4 points better per 100 possessions defensively with him on the court than off it, and his guts-out plays (i.e. the two saves against the Celtics that led to three-point plays for the Lakers) have helped build a tougher, more blue-collar streak in this Lakers team. If Ariza can put in the work this summer to make himself a better jump shooter once and for all, look out.
6. Brook Lopez
There are plenty of rookies worth watching in addition to those named Rose, Beasley and Mayo, but this one in particular is already starting and putting up respectable production for the Nets (9.9 points, 7.8 boards and 2.0 blocks per game). The Stanford twin was rumored to be going as high as fourth in the draft before his stock took a dive, and he fell to the Nets at the tenth spot. He's got size, touch and good instincts at both ends of the floor. The more he plays, the better he is going to get. The future of a team built around him and Devin Harris doesn't look too shabby.
7. Roger Mason Jr.
In a development that likely shocked no one, the gunner seems to have found a home in San Antonio, as so many role players have over the years. He can handle the ball when necessary, but his real asset is his sharpshooting ability. A very respectable 39.6 percent three-point shooter for his career, Mason is knocking down 46.9 percent of his treys in San Antonio this season and putting up a true shooting mark of 59.4 percent. Along with rookie George Hill, he came up huge in keeping the Spurs afloat when Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili were out with injuries. He has played admirably as a starter (averaging 12.2 points per game for the year), and he is now an integral part of the rotation thanks to how effective he is at stretching the floor. It's a mutually beneficial relationship: Mason is good for the Spurs, and they in turn are good for him.
8a and 8b. Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry
Sooner or later, one of these two youngsters is going to establish himself as the point guard of the future in Memphis. The guess here for a while was Conley, but we're intrigued by what both former collegiate studs have to offer. Conley's quickness and floor vision and Lowry's toughness and heady play each have their share of appeals, but both players are still feeling their relative-neophyte oats. Should be a fun dynamic to watch in Memphis as these two battle for the right to play alongside O.J. Mayo for the foreseeable future.
9. Marco Belinelli
With the Warriors in all sorts of injury trouble, the 22-year-old Italian guard finally received the chance to shine over the last few weeks. He plays an exciting game, flying up and down the floor, and pulling up for his dangerous quick release jumpers from mid-range and beyond the arc with abandon. He is a solid three-point shooter, hitting with 39.5 percent accuracy in his first two seasons in the league, and he has put up four 20-point performances in the last two weeks and change alone. As a starter this season, he is averaging 15.8 points and 3.4 assists to go with 42.6 percent three-point shooting, and he looks comfortable playing Nellieball. The more opportunities for this guy, the more excitement at ORACLE Arena in Oakland.
Which not-exactly-superstars will you be watching this year?
Comments
9b. MARIO CHALMERS
Another great article Steve, your creating quite an impact on this site. Being a die hard Celtics fan, but probably an even bigger NBA fan, I’ve really been enjoying your articles.
Chalmers fills up the stat sheet in a very “Rondo like” way. 10ppg and 5apg is nothing to write home about, but the way he has stepped up and run the point guard position for an over-achieving Heat team has been pretty impressive. Sure Wade controls the ball a lot, alleviating a lot of the pressure from Chalmers. Even still, Chalmers near 2 steals a night, 38% from 3 and 53% true shooting mark has certainly impressed me so far.
Probably the most impressive stat is the near 33 minutes a night he is logging. This shows me that Spoelstra trusts him, and how many rookie point guards can we say that about? He is definitely a player beyond his years in maturity and his ability to at times be deadly from 3 point range make me believe he is on the verge of a break out second half of the year.
More importantly, getting a chance to watch Chalmers a lot this year has showed me that his game actually elevates in crunch time. I guess this shouldn’t come as a surprise, given his legendary shot for Kansas a year ago, but it is very rare that we see a rookie so calm under pressure. Miami has played in a ton of close games, and he has a nack for hitting timely shots, getting key steals and just being in the right spot at the right time. Mario Chalmers is my “not quite superstar” to watch!
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 1:53 PM EST
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What about Rondo?
Rondo doesn't believe in easy buckets...
by ManUp on
Jan 1, 2009 1:58 PM EST
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I THINK RONDO IS KIND OF A GIVEN...
I’m pretty sure the point of the article was to bring some new names to the table.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 2:00 PM EST
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Seems as good a time as any to revisit the old Jameer vs. Delonte debate. Anyone else think Delonte has become the better pro player?
by D Dub on
Jan 1, 2009 2:01 PM EST
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A year ago I would have said yes...
Not this year though. As good as Cleveland is playing, too much of the credit goes to Lebron for that. Delonte has turned himself into a very good NBA player in my opinion, but look no further than Steve’s paragraph on Nelson to see that Jameer is having arguably a top 5 pg season right now, especially when you factor in the season Orlando is having and his contribution to that success.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 2:05 PM EST
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Happy New Year, Professor.
I’ve made it a point the last few years to get to Milwaukee when the C’s play there. Bogut’s game is fun to watch. He’s like Brad Miller when Miller had mobility.
I’m looking forward to watching Diaw when he gets used to Larry Brown’s system. Perfect player for Brown.
Kevin Love is steadily adjusting to the speed and length of the players in the NBA game. He’s going to be a solid player.
Marc Gasol is a perfect complement to the finesse players in Memphis. If coaching can get them to play a little defense, they could be formidable.
by Finkelskyhook on
Jan 1, 2009 2:17 PM EST
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Bogut
Can’t hit a jumper to save his life. Other than that, I agree with the comparison. Bogut is an excellent high post player. Unfortunately, the only way he can score from the high post is from drives at which he’s not really good. Anyway, if he can add a couple of consistent go-to moves in the low post, he could be a terrific player. He’s already a tremendous defensive force. Him and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute are the main reasons whey the Bucks defense improved so much.
by cordobes on
Jan 1, 2009 3:53 PM EST
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Probably the most impressive stat is the near 33 minutes a night he is logging. This shows me that Spoelstra trusts him, and how many rookie point guards can we say that about?
Or it shows that even having a rookie PG is better than playing Marcus Banks. The Heat don’t have any options to speak of at this position.
by kozlodoev on
Jan 1, 2009 2:18 PM EST
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POOR MARCUS...
How did I know someone would take a shot at marcus banks after posting about Chalmers…either way that is irrelevant. If Chalmers wasn’t getting the job done he wouldn’t be playing, especially with Wade’s ability to run the point. They could just as easily start Cook at the 2 instead.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 2:27 PM EST
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OK
What does this story tell me? I feel like you just listed ten players and then listed their stats. I don’t feel like I really took anything from this.
by mvnclipper on
Jan 1, 2009 2:31 PM EST
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HUH?
mvnclipper,
Were you looking for a breakdown of what OJ Mayo does on the weekends? I mean this is basketball, you talk about it by breaking down statistics and what you see on the court. Steve did both of those things thoughout this article, I think you drank too much last night…
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 2:42 PM EST
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Vegas,
What I meant was that I can easily go to basketball-reference or 82 games and look up Mayo’s stats. I think stats are good to augment an argument, but I felt like here the stats sort of were the argument.
Instead of reading like “Here are nine players to watch in 2009,” the piece struck me as mostly “here are a few players who have played well so far this season.” I liked the part about the point guards in Memphis and Gibson, but there wasn’t a prediction. No argument.
Although I will admit that your final accusation may be correct.
by mvnclipper on
Jan 1, 2009 3:03 PM EST
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HAHA
Yea I was going to end my post with…or maybe that was me that drank too much. Too funny, I do hear what you’re saying. Steve is our very own John Hollinger! I just think that what you were looking for might have made his piece too lengthy for my taste. It’s hard to sum up 9 players without carrying on for too long, so I think that’s why Steve chose to break it down the way he did.
The only thing I didn’t like about the piece is that Nelson and Mayo almost don’t belong. The rest of the players fall into the “flying under the radar” category, where as if you didn’t know Nelson and Mayo were big time this year, you do not have a pulse in the world that is NBA.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 3:10 PM EST
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I don’t like the Grizzlies. I’m not sure why, but I either fall asleep or am forced to turn off the TV in complete boredom whenever I try to watch one of their games.
by Who on
Jan 1, 2009 3:23 PM EST
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Agreed
I think what you’re saying about Mayo and Nelson — that everyone should already know they’re playing well — is what I was saying. Some of this does read like Hollinger, although I think Steve goes a little more into some actual basketball analysis.
I think we’ve found some common ground.
Also, since Steve asked for it, my player to watch in 2009 in McGuire from Washington. I really like what I’ve seen from him. When he doesn’t settle for jumpers, he can get to the rim at will. If he adds a 3-point shot, which I predict he will in 2009, he could be a huge upgrade over the hot-faced-one.
by mvnclipper on
Jan 1, 2009 3:28 PM EST
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Players to watch
Spencer Hawes / Bobby Brown
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute / Bogut / Ridnour / Bell
Granger/Rush/Hibbert/Daniels
Weaver/Green/Westbrook
Lee/ Nelson / Gortat
Mason Jr./Hill
by cordobes on
Jan 1, 2009 4:02 PM EST
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It's curious how Beasley
is basically an afterthought these days. Would Miami pick Lopez ahead of him if they had the chance of re-doing the draft?
by cordobes on
Jan 1, 2009 4:05 PM EST
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I don't like seeing Nelson do well
because he could very well steal Rondo’s spot on the All Star squad
"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott
by Jeff Clark on
Jan 1, 2009 4:45 PM EST
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Rondo
Jeff -
Maybe we should reserve the word “steal” for when someone is losing something that is rightfully theirs.
Just messing with you. Happy new year guys.
by mvnclipper on
Jan 1, 2009 5:18 PM EST
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Nelson
If Nelson does steal his spot, it’s hard to be too mad. Each is deserving, only so many spots. But Nelson’s play combined wtih Orlando’s success makes it hard to argue that any guard is more deserving of a spot on the all star team other than Dwayne Wade. However if Ray Allen goes to the all star game over Rondo, that I would have a big problem with. As well as Ray has played statistically, you can make the case that Rondo deserves more credit for those numbers than Ray actually does. It’s very hard to compare Nelson and Rondo, they are both playing so well. But we see Ray and Rondo play every night, and to me there is no question that Rondo is the engine of that backcourt.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on
Jan 1, 2009 6:02 PM EST
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No love for a double double pain inducing center hu?
:) Good luck for the rest of the year boston, can’t wait to see the rematch.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
by faith on
Jan 2, 2009 7:48 AM EST
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