Eager Grizz a Poor Appraisal of Conley
A Daily Babble Production
As the calendar turned from November to December, he was rumored to be heading to Portland as part of a deal to bring in Sergio Rodriguez and Travis Outlaw. Now, the word is that he'll be going to Milwaukee, and the Grizz can hardly wait to get it done. Mike Conley Jr.'s days in Memphis appear to be numbered.
According to the Memphis Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery, the Grizz are in talks with the Bucks about a proposed deal that would bring rookie Joe Alexander and second-year point guard Ramon Sessions to Memphis. Tillery's report Thursday stated that the Grizz were ready to make the move but were waiting on the Bucks' agreement.
Less than two years ago, Mike Conley played an integral role on an NCAA national finalist. As I watched a Celtics team whose point guard slot was filled most regularly by Sebastian Telair and Delonte West (and toward the end the rookie version of Rajon Rondo), Conley was also a pipe dream for me. Now, his team is ecstatic about the idea of bringing in one rookie forward who can't crack 12 minutes per game for the Bucks and the guy who backs up Luke Ridnour, a point guard unproven save for a few bonkers statistical games when the Bucks were playing out the string a season ago.
As of this moment, it's my preference to hold tight to the belief that it is a bit early to judge any of three rumored-to-be-involved players too definitively, since each has yet to make it through year two in the Association. But it's hard to deny that Conley has been disappointing.
Perhaps the biggest issue, as noted to me by longtime close friend and mentor The Babe, is the decline in the relative value of Conley's quickness. At Ohio State, he was often the quickest guy on the floor. He experienced more than his share of situations in which his man simply didn't have the foot speed to stay with him all game, thus making it easy for Conley to get in the lane and wreak havoc.
That hasn't been the case in the pros. Folks love to talk about how much quicker and stronger the competition is at the next level, and Conley has been living evidence of that thus far. Watching him in person against a Nets team without Devin Harris last week, I saw a player who couldn't even break down Keyon Dooling. It's been more of the same over the several times I've watched the Grizzlies on television this season. Conley's speed doesn't set him apart at this level, which makes it difficult for him to get to the rim, where he is most dangerous.
If Conley can't break down his own man, defenses don't have to adjust to him or send multiple players his way, which naturally lowers his ability to get teammates easy open looks. Further, Conley becomes less dangerous as a scorer. He is of course more effective taking lay-ups than shooting from the outside, and he becomes an even less threatening outside shooter when defenders don't have to give him space because of a fear of him making a dribble move to get to the bucket.
Mike Conley isn't shooting the ball efficiently (50.6 percent true shooting), isn't scoring at high volume (7.4 points in 24 minutes per game) and is leading an offense that is a shade more than one point per 100 possessions worse when he is on the floor than off it. His 3.0 assists per game (4.3 per 36 minutes) aren't blowing anyone's doors off either. Not all-time terrible by any stretch of the imagination, but far from overwhelming, especially for the guy picked fourth in the widely heralded 2007 draft. That the Grizzlies have already had enough of him is just one more bad sign in a season full of negativity for the youngster from Ohio State. Hope he finds a way to right the ship soon.
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I hope he gets it going. I thought he was going to be Rondo with a better shot. Not the case so far.
by moiso on Jan 19, 2009 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I really liked him too. I’m not sure why he didn’t perform in Memphis.
by Brickowski on Jan 19, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I was going to say...
Wasn’t he your boy that was supposedly going to be an all-star PG?! What happened to the guy?!
Maybe just another example of a guy who should have stayed in school!
by EJPLAYA on Jan 19, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I never quite understood why he went so high in the draft.
The guy played with Greg Oden his entire basketball career of course he’ll look good.
He’s not a bad player, but he was taken too high.
Rondo doesn't believe in easy buckets...
by ManUp on Jan 19, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Have to agree
Conley went high because the draft lacked PGs. He only moved up in draft rankings very late.
by guava_wrench on Jan 19, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it will take five more teams, like it took for Chauncy Billups before he reached his potential.
by VtCeltics on Jan 19, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hat tip to Steve and Brickowski.
I appreciate it when anyone sticks their neck out and starts promoting the drafting of some particular college player by the Celtics. It helps me to get a better idea of who to pay attention to. And I admire the fact that by endorsing someone, they’re risking their own credibility. And I especially admire anyone who will go back and own up if the player they had touted doesn’t deliver in the big league.
(I know I’ll have something to come clean about if Gabe Pruitt and Patrick O’Bryant prove to be washouts.)
by no kidding on Jan 19, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I too was a big fan of his when he was coming out of college, I even thought his rookie season contained several very good irregular signs … but as time wears on I’ve come to believe his biggest problems are mental, a lack of assertiveness as both a floor general and an attacker. He’s a good penetrator when he puts his mind to task and goes after it consistently, but that doesn’t happen often enough. I thought he’d be able to get past that as he moved beyond his rookie season, but so far he’s failed to do so.
Hopefully a new start will help bring out some of that talent that so many people see inside of him.
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by NBR on Jan 19, 2009 1:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
doubts about Conley
I had my concerns about Conley prior to the draft. I only saw his NCAA tournament play, which impressed me, but flat out, as a frosh in the draft his track record was too short . I don’t fault him for coming out of school when expectations were high—I fault the scouts and teams for having those expectations.
Not saying he can’t play, hopefully with more seasoning he can find the right situation. Maybe Minnesota . . .
by Thruthelookingglass on Jan 19, 2009 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Memphis offense is terrible for a player like Conley
They play that spread offense that, on the floor, is translated to something like “ISO Mayo or Gay and let them play 1 on 5 with the other guys watching; here and there allow Gasol to dish from the top of the key to a baseline cut. Oh, and run, but not too much because our defense sucks and we have to protect it”. I think Iavaroni has been doing a terrible job. And this is a very bad situation for Conley.
That said, Conley has two big problems:
- the one The Babe identified.
- maybe as a by-product of the environment he is immersed, a puzzling lack of aggressiveness and confidence.
I wasn’t a big fan of him when he was drafted, but I believe he’s talented enough to be a solid starter in the league. In order to do that, he needs to move away from Memphis. Playing for Skiles would work wonders for him.
OTOH, Sessions is not a pg yet, rather a ballhog with some creative skills. His ball-handling is suspect, he’s too mistaken prone, he has limited court vision, and he needs the ball on his hands indefinitely to create. And he’s not far from being the worst defensive guard in the entire league (no hyperbole, I’m serious). Ridnour has been outplaying him by a big, big margin. Sessions has a future, but as a PG for a Skiles team? I’m very doubtful of that.
Alexander is a bad player with an average ceiling. A 6th man in a good team or a starter in not so good teams, something around that.
I think this trade would benefit essentially Conley and Sessions. I’d like it to happen for that reason.
by cordobes on Jan 19, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bad situation for Conley
I didn’t explain exactly why. That kind of offense heavily reliant on clearouts and players creating off the dribble for themselves doesn’t fit a player with Conley’s skill-set: reading the reactions of the defense, getting the ball to his scorers and keeping everyone moving and happy.
The Bucks motion offense, on the other hand, requires exactly that from the PG (and it’s a pleasure to watch Ridnour running the show, it’s amazing how some players thrive if they’re put in the right situation but become worthless in the wrong one).
by cordobes on Jan 19, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well, one lesson is that point guards ought not to come out early. Telfair is just now turning into a creditable— not great— point guard. I remember Jason Kidd as a young player (who left school after his sophomore year) and he was pretty bad playing for those old Dallas teams. He turned to ball over time after time.
The exception has been Chris Paul.
by Brickowski on Jan 19, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I dont know about that
If Conley had stayed in school without Oden he might have been a second round pick. Better to work out your issues on a multi-million dollar deal, rather than seeing your draft position eroded. At the end of the day, even if he never signs another deal, he’ll make enough off this one to make up for 20 years of work for most people.
Pure basketball-wise, I think it means that teams drafting a PG need to have a vet starter, would he be okay if he had played behind Fischer or something? Also Rondo came out after his Sophmore year, and he has improved rapidly to be a near All Star in year 3.
by Brendan on Jan 19, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
can you say sebastian telfair? some guys just weren’t made to succeed at the nba level and conley may be one of those. John Lucas would be a good guy for conley to base his game on . Lucas could shoot though which COnley can’t. It’s funny but Gabe Pruitt may turn out to be a better pro than Conley. It just goes to show you how speculative the draft is. this year’s draft looks really weak at this point so I don’t mind that we don’t have a 1st round pick although I still wonder where we’re going to get a young big man to develop
by Red2 on Jan 19, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Chris Wallace suffers from Kevin McHale disease (if you’re a fan of their teams) – absolutely a great guy to make a deal with. Not surprised by Conley. I think Wallace may get the better of this one. Straight up for Ramon Sessions sounds right
by Wildblu1 on Jan 19, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i thought conley would be good too. one problem is that he is slight. rondo looks slight until you see his muscles up close and he can take a banging. conley’s low confidence might come from getting banged when he drives. i hope we’re not all drunk on gabe and that he’s the real thing. i like his shot- his height- and his defense. as a backup to rondo, he will eventually get better at driving and dishing.
by nazzbo on Jan 19, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Conley is intelligent and talented and will find his way.
by Brickowski on Jan 19, 2009 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Thoughts on Conley
I always thought he was a lightening quick point guard with crazy-good ball handling skills, but I wasn’t quite soled on Conley coming out of Ohio State. I’ve talked before with Steve about this, and I think we both agree that point guards especially benefit from staying an extra year or two in college (Chris Paul, Deron Williams, DJ Augustin, for example). Conley wasn’t as refined offensively as many people thought he was, and I wasn’t sure if he could hold his own against bigger, stronger point guards in the league. Another thing about Conley is that he always played in Greg Oden’s shadow, but because of that, he probably garnered more attention than he should have received. Normally it’s the other way around, but in this case, where Oden went, there was always Conley with him, and in my mind, the two of them were each given a bit too much praise.
However, I do think that the Grizzlies have given up too quickly on Conley. He’s still very young, and despite the fact that he’s been benched a few times, he’s still got plenty of potential. Too many people expect point guards to all of a sudden be as good as quickly as Paul and Williams were. It doesn’t always work out that way.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
by Tom Martin on Jan 19, 2009 10:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Add me to the Conley-believers camp prior to the draft. I’m surprised he hasn’t done more to date.
I was worried about him entering the season, having to play alongside two touch happy scorers on the perimeter. I don’t think he’s going to fulfill that potential alongside those two guys.
by Who on Jan 20, 2009 1:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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