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Residual Road Trip Reflections

A Daily Babble Production

In the 21st century sports climate, fans hover somewhere in the neighborhood of eighth-class citizens.  As a result, I'm not a big believer that we fans owe too much of anything to anyone in this business most of the time.  But this piece is a bit late in coming because this Celtics team deserves at least an attempt at rationality from me.  When a team wins a championship, gets off to the best 29-game start in the history of its sport and wins 75 percent of its games that counted in one calendar year, there isn't a need to go off half-cocked at the first rough patch in the road.

So I gave it an extra day or two.  Because, like many of you, I saw that road trip going a bit differently in my head.

The loss in Los Angeles was disappointing but not stunning.  That's the best team in the Western Conference, and at 19 straight wins and on the road across the country for Christmas, our boys were due for one that didn't work out.  The Golden State game was frustrating but again, not the biggest surprise of all time.  Back to back games on the West Coast, some zapped energy levels after the game in Los Angeles, no Perk due to injury: not a good combination.  The Sacramento game looked like a nice bounce-back.  The Portland game was downright agitating.  The Blazers were without their best player, their bigs out-muscled the Celts' bigs underneath, and (sorry, Blazers fans) listening to Mike Rice made my ears bleed. 

By the wee hours of Wednesday morning, I was more than a tad peeved.  So I decided to hold off for the day on too much commentary about the trip (choosing instead to watch "The Dark Knight" for the first time, quite an impressive picture).  One Gotham City adventure later, it was time to finally do some calmer thinking about this forgettable trip. 

The takeaway from it all for me is that I'm not so sure this team got exposed, so to speak, over the past week, so much as it got bitten by its previously evident imperfections.  But what I'm also not sure about is whether that's a good or bad thing under the circumstances.

Star-divide

What all that means is that we didn't learn much new about this team, particularly as far as its flaws are concerned.

It wasn't as though the Celtics went out west and the folks out there had somehow unearthed a way to break down Tom Thibodeau and Doc Rivers' swarming defense once for all.  Or that the offense suddenly sputtered for some unknown reason.  Or one of our players indicated that he isn't as good as we thought he was.  For the most part, none of that happened.

What did happen was that the same flaws that were evident in this team during the 27-2 start bit just hard enough at the wrong times against the wrong teams. 

Turnovers.  The Celts have been among the league's worst in taking care of the ball all season, which is best encapsulated by their dead last ranking in turnover ratio.  The green gives the ball away on 27 percent of its possessions.  In the first two games of the road trip, the Celts turned the ball over a combined 40 times.  The offensive fouls (especially illegal screens), the sloppy passes in transition; it all adds up.

The bench.  The biggest reason this team got off to as good a start as it did wasn't because of improved bench play but because it got not one, not two, but three improved starters.  Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have deservedly gotten plenty of press for the leaps they have made thus far this season.  But not to be lost is the increased contribution of Ray Allen.  He who made the greatest sacrifice of the big three last season but finally seems perpetually in rhythm in the offense, and he is putting up his 18 points per game on a criminally good 63.3 percent true shooting. 

The bench, however, has not been better.  During the big win streak, it consistently blew leads against bad teams.  Despite the high-margin wins in many of those games, there was plenty of discussion about the lack ball movement and the defensive troubles on the second unit.  It didn't take losing to the Lakers or Golden State or Portland to make it apparent that the Infuriated Infant is a foul machine or that the team needs more leadership on the floor with the bench or that the reserves didn't have the requisite punch to be successful at either end of the floor.  It simply followed logically that against better, deeper opponents than usual (such as the Lakers and even Portland, a legitimately good team, no matter how much the Blazers were compromised without Roy) the effects of these problems would be more illuminated in the final outcome of the games.

The same goes for all the other smaller stuff as well: the occasional over-reliance on jump-shooting (not the problem late against Portland), Rondo's continued lack of confidence in his jump shot, the confusing on-court absence of Gabe Pruitt (not because I think he's the next coming of Michael Jordan but simply because he appears to have a skill set that could be useful down the stretch), the length issues.  These were all problems that were present during the 27-2 start.  They just had a bigger impact on the final score this past week, perhaps because the team played a couple of better opponents, maybe simply because the Celts were on the road, particularly across the country out west.

All of the above is observation about which I feel fairly confident.  It's judging the meaning of those observations that is causing me some trouble.  To some extent, these realizations seem encouraging to me because it isn't as though this team needs to go back to the drawing board after experiencing some shock to the system.  The offense and defense don't need to be redesigned.  The starting five is still quite possibly the best in the league.  The problems are all issues that the team has presumably been aware of and working on over the course of the year, simply areas of focus that need more work.  With 49 regular season games remaining, there is plenty of time for more work.

But the flip side is that nagging feeling that if these problems have indeed been evident, then perhaps the team won't be able to fix them for the time they will really matter: the playoffs.  It's been my presumption (and that of many Celtics fans, so far as I can tell) that Danny Ainge knew the limitations of his team's bench and would be preparing to make a move down the stretch if and when it was necessary.  In less than a week, Dikembe Mutombo (definitely) and P.J. Brown (apparently) have left the board of availability.  Joe Smith and Alonzo Mourning seem the next logical choices, but if they can't be obtained, then what?  What if Danny isn't able to make a move to boost the bench?  How much better can we expect the current group to play by year's end?  Is the bench a fatal flaw if left unchanged?

I don't have answers to those questions, but I'd be lying if I said they didn't make me  a bit nervous.  For the most part, I'm content to push myself toward believing the former reasoning pattern, that it's good that this rough patch came early, and that it's even better that said rough patch didn't expose any new weakness on this team.   I've believed all season that this team hasn't played its highest level of basketball, that it has the coaching staff and the on-floor leaders to push itself to better all-around performances, and I maintain that line of thinking.

The road trip was four games out of 82, and it is over now.  Even the 66-win Celtics of a year ago had a few rough four-game stretches (the three straight losses out west after the All-Star break come to mind).  As member cordobes notes, the 27-2 record was better than the level this team was playing at.  That's no insult.  Exactly zero teams in the history of the game have played .930 basketball over the course of an entire season.  This Celtics team is winning nearly 85 percent of its contests (that's plenty to write home about), and even on a day that isn't its best, it remains one of the best this league has to offer, one of the few legitimate contenders for a championship this coming June.  That the few issues brought forth above still seem to be the only potential impediments (health issues excepted) to giving this team maximum potential for a repeat is a good thing. 

Our boys in green return home tonight.  Let's hope they return to takin' names and kickin' rear ends.  Here's to enjoying every second of it, all the while keeping the concerns about fixing those other issues fresh in our minds.

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Once again, Steve, I really appreciate reading your articles on the C’s—thanks.

(And yes, Rondo, in year three at age 22 isn’t quite the perfect point guard yet—but he’s motored them to far more wins than he’s contributed to losses this year. I think he’s already the 2nd most valuable player on the team: next year he might even surpass KG.)

by clover on Jan 2, 2009 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks, clover

Glad to hear you’re enjoying my work.

While I’m not sure where I’d assess Rondo’s relative value among his teammates, it’s certainly become clear that his play is truly a driving force in determining the level of success achieved by the offense. When he’s on, this team jumps that extra level to “juggernaut” offensively.

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 3, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Has Friday put folks in a good mood?

Thanks to you as well for the kind words. Always appreciated.

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 3, 2009 1:25 AM EST up reply actions  

nice analysis

good article, Steve. To take it one step further, I think our flaws are evident: our bench is a hustle bench, that does pretty well against most teams (which do not have good benches) but is in over its head against the better teams, like the Lakers, and even Portland. I think length is a real issue for this team’s bench. Not a single guy off the bench (putting POB aside, since he never plays meaningful minutes) is over 6’7". That is scary. (and please, I know that Leon is listed at 6’8" and BBD is 6’9", but keep it real). As for comparison to last year’s 3 game losing streak, wasn’t that when KG just came back from abdominal injury? I just don’t think that is a good comparison. Last year’s team struggled against athleticism (Magic, ’Cats, Wiz and especially the Hawks) but not with size, especially when PJ came into the rotation.

I don’t think Marbury will solve our biggest issue, length off the bench. Frankly, he strikes me as a decent PG who can’t play defense. Maybe takes some of the heat off others in 2nd unit to create. But not sure that is going to solve our real issue.

by footey on Jan 2, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

I believe the losses are directly related to the poor play of House recently. I thought he did a good job last year, but he seems to have forgotten how to pass the ball. There is no ball movement by the second unit. One guy freelances while the others stand around and watch, which exposes their individual weaknesses.

I thought the first unit had the same problem at the end of the Portland game. Everyone was trying to win the game by himself rather than working as a unit.

It’s time to hand the keys to Gabe Pruitt. It really is.

by Brickowski on Jan 2, 2009 2:15 PM EST reply actions  

agree brick about eddie and gabe. posey stabilized the bench and the starting 5 because he could fit in with both. we are missing that cog as of now and outside of a trade, i don’t see it coming, especially with marbury. and remember last year’s trades at the the end of the year thet were supposed to rescue teams, i.e. kidd and shaq,etal. even the big cleveland deal was too late for last year. so do it fast danny to give the ubuntus time to adsjust.

by nazzbo on Jan 2, 2009 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

Bridge Players

I think the analogy of Posey as a ‘bridge player’ that is someone who could play with both the starters and bench is spot on. What is more, the rotation is such that we no longer have the Boston Celtics, but instead have team 1 and team 2. Rarely are our players intermixed.

Also, because of this we’re asking players in the second unit to do more all around play. Whereas Leon was once mainly just a rebounder-put back guy, now he’s supposed to do everything. The same is true for everyone else. Doc is not playing our players to their strengths. Role players are called role players for a reason, and if you expect too much from them, you’re bound to be disappointed.

by amenhotep04 on Jan 2, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Cooling off

Great post, I think you hit it spot on that Ray Allen’s performance at the start of the season is a big reason this team played so well. Something I noticed especially in the Portland game but throughout the road trip, however, is that Ray Allen’s role in the offense seemed somewhat reduced. Almost straight through the fourth quarter of the Portland game, Ray was completely stagnant on the offensive side. Zero movement without the ball which is the where he’s best offensively.

I think that was a big difference between the 27-2 start and the 1-3 road trip. Ray’s movement without the ball and his ability to hit 3 pointers creates tremendous chaos for the opposing defense opening things up down low as well. The Celtics have been at their best when their active in moving the ball. Probably why they have such a high turnover ratio but also why they rank in the top 10 in assist % for 3 pointers, 2 point jump shots, and inside shots. I really found it troubling that the standard play of running Ray off a double screen for a three point attempt wasn’t used once in the final 3-4 minutes of the Portland game.

Is Ray cooling off by himself or is Doc taking away his opportunities for some reason?

by Reddo on Jan 2, 2009 7:32 PM EST reply actions  

Spot on, yourself, Reddo

I wondered the same about Ray’s disappearances at times during the road trip. Regarding the Portland game, I’m really not sure what to say, because while Ray wasn’t featured, it was hard to complain about Pierce getting inside and to the line as effectively as he was down the stretch. The frustrating Ray game for me was in Golden State, where he committed multiple offensive fouls and seemed uncomfortable and out of rhythm all night. Ah, well – I think he’ll be the least of our worries: a professional shooter who knows how to find his comfort zone.

Thanks for the analysis – very well done.

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 3, 2009 1:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Really enjoy your writing, SW

Is there an rss feed of just your articles that I could subscribe to? (No offense, Jeff)

< /war >

by Diesel10 on Jan 2, 2009 8:27 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for the praise, Diesel

Always good to know people are enjoying my work.

Not sure of an answer to your RSS feed question though. That said, given the opportunity, a happy reminder that Jeff is the heart and soul of the site, and his writing is always worth the read as well.

Looking forward to seeing you around the site.

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 3, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Jeff's great, if you like the celtics,I suppose...

You’re right, SW, Jeff’s writing is awesome. The thing is, I’m a Blazer fan and really only prone to reading Celtics-centric material the few times a year the two teams meet (unless the Boston media is forcing championship drivel down my West Coast throat). Then, I love to read what Jeff has to say. The rest of the time, I’m still interested in what you’re writing. I really enjoy your calm and rational analysis of things of interest league-wide, especially in the daily babble series. That was the reasoning behind my somewhat strange request, not any intended slight to your blogging buddy. Regardless, keep up the excellent work you both do here!

< /war >

by Diesel10 on Jan 3, 2009 4:13 AM EST up reply actions  

No worries, I presumed there was no harm intended

just figured it was a good opportunity for some shameless site promotion. :-D

Regardless, I appreciate the kind words, and I’m glad to hear you like what I do here. Feel free to jump on in the discussion anytime…

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 3, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice Article

One thing we all need to aware of is that the playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. Right now we are playing for home court advantage and to improve the play of the team. We are also evaluating to see if changes are needed from within or from outside. During the regular season travel plays a big part in how the teams play. And travel interferes with practice time. This is eliminated in the playoffs. The C’s need to correct alot of things and I would have hoped they would have done so by now. To me the turnovers are killing us, even if our opponent doesn’t score on them. They take a scoring opportunity away from us. One way to eliminate turnovers is to have Rondo dribble the ball for 20 seconds and then shoot or pass. Of course, that’s ridiculous. This is a passing team. We pass more than other teams and we have more assists than other teams. As Bill Fitch once said when commenting on Larry Bird’s turnovers: “He who does the most painting spills the most paint”. I think Doc hit on the problem and solution in his remarks in one of the Boston papers. The problem is the extra BAD pass and trying to go for the homerun pass instead of a good intermediate pass that eventually becomes the good pass that get’s the assist. I think this can be fixed.

The Cavs and Orlando seem to be our biggest competitors for home court advantage. The only games I’ve seen them play are the ones we played against them and we won them all.

by TrueGreen on Jan 3, 2009 10:44 AM EST reply actions  

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