Well-Paid Disappointment Swap On Tap

by Steve Weinman on Jan 21, 2009 1:00 PM EST in NBA Articles

A Daily Babble Production

It is hard to shake the feeling that there is something belittling about referring to the following trade rumor as a trash-for-trash deal. The two main players involved have received 10 All-Star selections between them. After all, averaging nearly 26 points and more than 16 rebounds per game is fairly impressive. Except for when those represent the combined averages of two players also combining to make more than $38.5 million this season.

The Toronto Star's Doug Smith reported Sunday that the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors are moving closer to a deal centered on the exchange of Shawn Marion for Jermaine O'Neal, with former Celtic Marcus Banks likely to be thrown in as well. Count me among those all for this one, although I'm past the point of harboring any special affections for either Marion or O'Neal.

It makes sense because there isn't much financial risk on either side, and neither player is doing a whole lot to better his team.

On the Miami side, Marion is in the midst of the least productive season of his career. He is putting up 12.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, and he isn't getting his points with much efficiency. Marion is shooting less than 50 percent from the field (47.9) for the first time since 2004-05, and he isn't knocking down threes at all (19.4 percent). His 51.8 percent true shooting mark is tied for the third-worst of his 10-year career. He hasn't looked in rhythm offensively all season. At $17.2 million, Marion is the Heat's highest-paid player this season, and it's hard to imagine Miami making too much of an effort to retain him at season's end. With Dwyane Wade and rookie Mike Beasley expected to be the wings in South Beach for years to come, there isn't a real need to keep the Matrix around.

Toronto is a sensible destination. The Raptors' wing play has been less than stellar this season (seriously, how many of their swingmen can you name?*), and the team could use a boost if it plans to make a concerted effort to salvage the season. Marion is only 30 years old and may still have a lot of productive basketball left in him. Prior to last season's 63 games played, he had appeared in at least 79 games in seven straight seasons. Marion could provide some scoring punch at the three for the Raps while serving as a defensive presence as well. He's off the books at the end of the season, so if the team isn't happy with him or just wants to clear cap space, the Raps won't be at any risk.

It works neatly that Miami could also use some help up front. Udonis Haslem continues to do a yeoman's job at the four, but it's hard to see Joel Anthony, Jamaal Magloire and Mark Blount cutting it all that well in the pivot in the long term. Like Marion in Miami, Jermaine O'Neal has not been a success in Toronto. Once again, JO is battling injury problems, and he is putting up a pedestrian 13.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game when he does play. He hasn't been dominant at either end of the floor and recently remarked that Andrea Bargnani should be starting in his place in the Raps' frontcourt.

Label me guilty of believing at season's sart that the change of scenery and chance to play alongside Chris Bosh might rejuvenate JO's career. It hasn't happened, and we have so far seen more of the same old, same old - injuries and ineffectiveness - that marked the end of O'Neal's stint in Indiana. Despite the fact that he is only 30 years old as well, I'm growing closer to believing that the days of O'Neal being anything even close to a dominant interior player are long gone and that this is who he is now. But at the very least, Miami would give him one more shot at a new set of scenery and a chance to be the man on the interior for a team that could use a more effective big man complement for Dwyane Wade.

Sadly, even if O'Neal only performs around the level that he is now in Toronto, he would still be a quantum leap forward over what the Heat are getting in the middle at present. While he makes an obscene $44-plus million over this season and next, O'Neal's contract comes off the books at the end of next season, which would leave the Heat unshackled for the free agent bonanza-to-be of summer 2010. If he were to perform admirably in Miami, the Heat might be able to get him back at a steep discount two summers from now. If not, he's gone, just like Marion would have been.

Shawn Marion is likely still a basket case, but he is a durable one who may have plenty of good basketball left in him. Jermaine O'Neal's best days fall further back in the rearview mirror each day, but he would be an upgrade in the Miami frontcourt. Both players have onerous contracts but ones that will be complete in the short term. Let's see the Raptors and Heat roll the dice with this one.

***

*Toronto swingmen: Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, Anthony Parker

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Comments

It probably makes both teams better than what they were

but not good enough to do anything real.

by wondahbap on Jan 21, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions

That sounds about right,

but it couldn’t hurt at this point, right?

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 21, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions

Putting O'Neal on any team is subtraction by addition for that team. So it helps us if Miami makes the trade.

You’re not wrong often, Professor, but O’Neal has been a train wreck since the brawl…Acting more like Jesse Jackson (Screaming racism at every turn and cashing a paycheck for doing nothing) than an NBA player. The trade Bird made was so one-sided that Bird should have been arrested.

This wouldn’t be as one-sided as the Indiana trade. But it would be very one-sided.

by Finkelskyhook on Jan 21, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

Definitely couldn't hurt. Marion gets a PG who can get him the ball in situations he likes

Marion gets a PG might get him the ball in situations he likes (on the run), and maybe JO looks good again when he realizes that Miami’s frontline stinks anyway.

One other thing about Jermaine O’Neal (and T-Mac [T-Pain]).

They were both in that 1st wave of high schoolers that came into the NBA, and if you look at it that way (assuming they would have been in college for 2-3 years), they are equivalent to a guy who has been in the league for about 13-14 seasons. This downward spiral is expected at this point in their careers.

the point I’m getting to is that it makes the fact that Kobe and KG have been durable, and yet still elite players at this point in their careers even more amazing.

by wondahbap on Jan 21, 2009 1:22 PM EST reply actions

Worth pointing out

Yes to the Marion getting a pg. Wade is not a true point and never has been. I love his game, don’t get me wrong, but Marion is basically only suited to playing with guys like Steve Nash. And right now, to be honest, Calderon is the East’s lesser version of Nash. He shoots 3’s and ft’s at a high percentage, he racks up a ton of dimes, and he pushes the tempo. Toronto could be well off with Marion, Calderon, Bosh, and the plethora of athletic swingmen you discussed (with Kapono and Parker as the 3 point specialists – remember that torching in Boston last year….).

Good trade for the raps, the heat just need to keep oneal on the court.

by Slick on Jan 21, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

D'Antoni effect ...

strikes again. It almost seems a crime that Marion can’t reunite with the system and mentor that is best suited to his skills. Too Bad the Knicks or Warriors (Nellie Ball) can’t trade for Marion.

by stoyko on Jan 21, 2009 1:22 PM EST reply actions

Hmm

It seems the fate of the Marion/Banks tandem to be traded for centers named O’Neal.

If this trade does go down, how does that impact Boozer — who has been mentioned often as a candidate to go to Miami in the off-season, if not before?

by MattD on Jan 21, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Ahhh, nice connection, Matt

Didn’t even think about that O’Neal point. Good stuff. :-D

Also an interesting question about Boozer. As far as the lineup is concerned, I think you could run with Booze and JO as your 4-5 for a season, but the issue becomes having the money to sign him – as Marion goes off the books this year and JO next year. Worth some thought, thanks for bringing it up.

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 21, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

The implications that I’ve read elsewhere are that Boozer is no longer on their radar screen, perhaps because of his own injury issues. Makes sense for Miami to reload for 2010, though; if we assume the dollars are going to be equal, isn’t a guy like Bosh going to look at Miami (great weather, great nightlife, no state income tax) a lot more favorably that most other places? ESPECIALLY if Miami manages to get Wade re-signed. That’s a helluva duel to build around.

JO’s a stopgap pickup to make the team marginally better for the next year and a half. After that, all bets are off (at this point, though, he’s an MLE-level player when he re-ups at best).

by theBird on Jan 21, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t understand the continued Boozer rumours. Miami have $51.4mil on their books next season. How exactly are they going to pay him? They don’t have the cap space available.

It made sense before they added $8.5mil in contracts with Beasley and Jones. But not now.

by Who on Jan 21, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

That's moe than enough.

The NBA has a cap of about $73 million, I think. That’s more than it would take to sign Boozer. Also, the cap is soft. If they wanted to they can go over, they have to pay luxury tax. I doubt they would want to go over the luxury tax line though.

by wondahbap on Jan 21, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

Wondahbap, the number you’re thinking of is the luxury tax line instead of the salary cap.

The salary cap is $58.68mil this season and the luxury tax line is $71.15mil.

by Who on Jan 21, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

Edit: Sorry, those numbers are for this season, not next season.

by Who on Jan 21, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think it’s got the potential to make Toronto a lot more interesting. Might be kind of fun to watch Matrix, Bosh, and Calderon; that’s a pretty exciting, althletic trio. JO was always kind of a weird pickup for them; even before he became a cripple, he was best-suited for a more-deliberate kind of pace. Not someone that fits really into the direction that you thought Conagelo wanted to go.

It’s pretty amazing how far Matrix’ career has fallen since he left Steve Nash, though. In the desire to show that he can be The Man, he’s just solidified the fact that he’s a great 3rd-guy.

Don’t think this helps Miami too much, though. But, JO will come off the books in time for them to make a run at (I think) Bosh, who I would love to see teamed up with Wade.

by theBird on Jan 21, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions

Marion is 5 times the player JO is, and he has a better contract. If I’m Toronto, I do this in a heartbeat. JO is never going to be a healthy player, by the way. Indiana already knew this.

by moiso on Jan 21, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions

You can do Part II of this post...

… with the reported Larry Hughes for Bobby Simmons swap. That’s almost the same, right? :-P

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

by Roy_Hobbs on Jan 21, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions

There are some merits on both sides (Miami’s need for a big, Toronto’s need for any quality on the wings) …… in the end I think it hurts Miami quite a lot, and it could destroy Toronto if they play their cards badly.

Toronto

The worst case scenario for Toronto is Marion plays well and they decide to meet his contract demands. His new deal plus Marcus Banks wipes them out in 2010. You’re basically rolling with a 46-51 win team for the next 4 years and losing in the first round more often than not. It could take away any future they hope of having ….. Marion is a rental and if he’s treated as such he can be a successful addition to the Raps. 12 months and out the door.

If the Raptors keep Marion until the end of the season, then they have the perfect hustling small forward to balance out their big men’s perimeter games. Marion’s rebounding, defense, movement off the ball, ability to get interior shots, would all add a lot to the Raptors. They’d become a good side again.

Toronto still (since Vince left) desperately needs that dynamic wing who can create for both himself and others (eg a Joe Johnson type). Their only reliable option right now is to get that player through the 2010 free agency. A large long term contract for Marion wipes that out, Banks added contract hurts too. That’s why Marion needs to be a 3-4 month rental.

They handle Marion well (let him walk) then they’re in great shape. They handle him badly (extend his contract) and they might be finished.

Miami

I think Shawn Marion’s defense is too valuable to Miami. Their whole team defense is based on quickness and athleticism, I think the loss of Marion and the inclusion of Jermaine forces them to change how they like to play on that end of the floor. Maybe it can work, but you’re counting on someone like Diawara to become a major player in the team (Marion plays 37 minutes).

Do they really want to see Wade have to spend 30 minutes a night defending the best offensive player? That’s what will need to happen. What happens to his offense then? He’s already shouldering a huge load.

I also think Marion’s rebounding is more valuable (9rpg>7rpg), he does his work at small forward while allowing two fellow big men to patrol the paint. Jermaine’s rebounding is solid but it takes away one big man plus you lose Marion and are left with a mortal rebounding SF …. it’s hard for the team to make gains on the boards in this scenario, not unless someone like Diawara once again blows the doors down with superb play that we haven’t seen before.

So the reason you acquire Jermaine O’Neal is for his offense? A touch happy low efficiency big man? 13-15ppg in his 30 minutes a night? Over Marion, a player who doesn’t need the ball and will give you almost as many points? Marion’s scoring should pick up too, he’s better than that. What happens to all of Beasley’s touches? What happens when you want to start Beasley and they both want the ball?

Then the injuries … the added year on the contract …. the possibility of repeating last season with an unbelievable burden on Wade’s shoulders ….

I’d expect Miami to get worse defensively, offensively and on the boards. Plus the injuries and contract.

by Who on Jan 21, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions

I don't like this trade for Toronto

My first reaction was positive, but the more I thought about it, the less I liked it. How much cap they free next-season? Unless they can move someone else, around $8 million (assuming the cap stays flat):

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/raptors2009.jsp

Of course, they can always re-sign Marion. But it’s an aging Marion the player they need in the long-term? I don’t think so, what they need is a wing who can create shots and one who can defend. Or they can always renounce to everybody, move Banks pairing him with Parker and some other expirings (and hopefully move Kapono as well) and enter the FA market with decent cap space ($13 million?) but just 4 or 5 players under contract. And in that case, they traded TJ Ford, Rasho’s big expiring contract and the 17th pick of the draft for a 4 months rental of O’Neal and a 4 months rental of Marion?

I don’t dislike it for Miami because they’re merely clearing space for 2010. As re-signing Marion wouldn’t make sense (next Marion’s contract is going to be highly risky for the club that signs it, I think) and they probably didn’t manage to dump their bad contracts without giving up too much value in order to have cap this Summer, O’Neal is a decent stop-gap for this 1 year and half.

by cordobes on Jan 21, 2009 4:28 PM EST reply actions

Hassan Adams

He was traded for the Clippers (or Memphis?) and immediately waved, I think.

by cordobes on Jan 21, 2009 4:29 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have included him

but originally was just going to go with everyone who has played minutes for them at those spots this season. I’ll bounce him off that list. Thanks, cordobes.

-sw

Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.

by Steve Weinman on Jan 21, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

I love this for Miami

First of all, Marion is just another D’antoni product that is showing his true colors when the team he plays for isn’t shooting in less than 7 seconds. Bill Simmons point this out and as this season plays out, he’s looking spot on. Either way, it’s a pure money move for Toronto, who know they have to make some moves and getting that 17mil off the books after the season will be a step in the right direction (no chance they resign Marion).

Secondly, the more I watch Beasley the more I love him as a 3. His shot is wet and the one thing Miami is missing is a legitimate post player. Like you said Steve, even if Oneal plays like he is now (14 and 8) that’s fine. If Chalmers continues to improve, this team is moving more in the direction of a contendor than they are just a playoff team. Dwayne Wade is that good, he doesn’t need much.

SCOTT

by Vegas Scott on Jan 21, 2009 7:59 PM EST reply actions

Nice Subject

Great to talk about this because it has nothing to do with the Celtics. The fact that this is posted on the Blog is good to because we’re not spending time or we can’t find anything to criticize the Celtics about.

by TrueGreen on Jan 22, 2009 10:07 AM EST reply actions