What if Portland Drafted Durant?
by Vegas Scott on Jan 24, 2009 2:27 AM EST
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PrintAfter watching KD blow up for yet another spectacular performance against the Clippers Friday night (46 points, 15 rebounds on 24-26 from the FT line) I can't help but wonder WHAT IF Portland drafted Durant instead of Greg Oden with the number 1 pick in the 2007 draft. Through no fault of his own, Oden has yet to make any real impact (especially for a number 1 pick) in the NBA. Even still, it doesn't appear that Oden is likely to even come close to the potential that Durant is displaying this season. KD is already one of the league's top scorers, and looks on his way to being THE premier scorer in the league. With that said, here's what Portland's starting lineup COULD have looked like if Durant was chosen instead of Oden:
Roy, Fernandez, Durant, Randolph, Aldridge.
With Bayless, Batum and Outlaw rounding out the 8 man rotation. (Eventually Bayless could probably run the point with Fernandez coming off the bench as the 6th man alla Manu Ginobili)
Sure it would have taken some fancy financial footwork by Kevin Pritchard to keep this team under the cap for any length of time, but hey if Ainge can do it with 3 hall of famers, why can't Portland. this lineup would be an absolute contendor THIS YEAR in my opinion, and a potential dynasty in the making. Portland still has an amazing future and could quite possibly become a championship contendor, however one has to wonder what could have been...
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
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You're forgetting how terrible he was last year
Kevin Durant does indeed look like he’ll be a great offensive player right now. But last year he was terribly inefficient and looked lost. That is what often happens to rookies.
Greg Oden similarly looks very lost at times, and also has the problem that he is a big man. So he has to contend with serious foul trouble and much greater defensive responsibilities.. Its far too early to be down on Oden. Plus it is hard to play for a good team especially when you have a backup as good as Joel Przybilla. Great rebounding seven footers are more valuable that scoring wings, you can’t forget that.
Also that line up that you cite wouldn’t win a title. They’d be terrible defensively. If they’d bring in Joel then maybe the could win a playoff series but I have my doubts. Durant is still a rather poor individual defender as well, and I’m not sold on Fernandez.
Not Downing Oden
I’m not necessarily downing Oden. He’ll be a very solid pro. I’m merely pointing out that Kevin Durant is a special player. They type of player that comes around once every 10-15 years. Also, that team could lay down on defense and still win 55-60 games. They would have plenty of time to mature defensively. I didn’t say they would win a title this year, I said they would compete for one, and that team most certainly would. The point is you would be looking at a 7-8 year window with a team that had as much potential offensively as any team that has ever suited up in the NBA. I don’t believe Portland will win a title in the next 5 years. They would have had a much better shot if they drafted Durant in my mind.
SCOTT
Special? Yes. 10-15 year player? No.
In the past 15 or so years we’ve had LeBron, Shaq, Duncan, and KG. Do your really think Durant will be better than any of them over the course of his career?
The 15 years before that we had MJ, Bird, Magic, Dream. I’m sure I’ve left people out who’d warrant inclusion.
Winning 55-60 games is very difficult to do. Especially when you’d have a team made up of several poor individual defenders that would also probably get out rebounded night in and out. Not to mention they’d lack any sort of effective post presense. Randolph is a post player but he’s terribly inefficient for a post player at this point in his career.
Competing for a title in my mind isn’t playoffs its WCF or ECF. Though sometimes you get teams meeting the second round that could both win it all. (Boston/Cle or SAS/PHS a few years ago)
I’m not sure how much of Portland you really watch. They’re a very efficient offensive team already. I think they’ll be a serious competitor for a title soon as Oden can become a quality big. He gets too many fouls and turns it over too often when they go to him right now.
For the record...
Yes I do believe that Kevin Durant will be in that class. Obviously he still has to go out and prove it. So yes it is a prediction on my end, but one that I don’t think is out of bounds if you’ve been watching him this year. The reason is because he is so unique. As a legitimate 6’9" shooting guard, he is an impossible matchup for anyone in the NBA. Add his freakish wing span, and you’ve got a guy who can get his shot off whenever he wants. The scariest part is that if he continues to add strength, (as proven this year not necessarily by his frame but how much better he is finishing with contact at the rim) he has tremendous potential to improve.
Either way, let’s not stray from the original point of my post. It is my opinion that Portland would have been competing for a title far sooner if they had drafted KD over Oden, that is all. I’m not sure at this point how that is even debatable. In Durant’s second year as a pro he is already putting up hall of fame numbers, both in volume and efficiency. So with that said, wouldn’t Portland have preferred that to a solid big man in Greg Oden?
Oh and yes, I’ve seen a ton of Portland this year. League pass is a wonderful thing. They are a very good team who has no shot to win a title in the next 3 years without adding another SUPERSTAR. Like I said before, simply exchange Oden for Durant and that team is competing for a title THIS YEAR.
SCOTT
I think your wrong but I think we've both made our case
I would like to point out that Durant is putting up his best numbers by far at the 3 position. I have a feeling that is where he’ll end up for most of his career.
What is the basis of Durant being capable of being a once in a lifetime player?
Yet Oden doesn’t? When I see Durant I see a raw Tracy McGrady. So yeah, he has potential to be a really good, perennial All-Star player. But to assume he will be on the same planet as Paul, James, or Duncan in terms of dominance?
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Jan 25, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
If 25 ppg & 7 rpg at 47% is raw...
Consider being raw a VERY good thing, lol. And just to clarify, Tracy McGrady is a top 50 player of all time in my opinion, so I think if anything you’ve helped build my case with that comment. Especially when you consider Durant is 20 years old. So in his 2nd year, if you’re already mentioning him within the same breath as a top 50 player, then making the case that he has the potential to be a top 25 player of all time doesn’t sound so ridiculous to me.
SCOTT
Durant's a top 50 player in the league, at least he will be soon
That’s nowhere near being a top 25 player of all-time. I don’t consider McGrady top 50 all-time. He has had 2 brilliant seasons in a career that’s lasted close to a decade. So, yeah he has McGrady potential, but is that really that amazing?
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Jan 26, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
It could have been...
… the worst defensive team in the NBA. Who’s Randolph, Zach? Lots of jump-shooters in that roster… Well, truth to be told, that’s not really very far away from their present situation.
Now, with Przrybilla, some solid defenders, a true point plus someone who could score from the low post, that would be an extraordinary team.
I think Oden was the right move for them.
Because they’re set up to be very good if they can get a post player. They have to be hoping Oden can become that player.
I worry though. Will Portland become like the Bulls? Plenty of good young talent, but never putting it together? That would be disappointing, I don’t think it will though assuming Roy stays healthy.
Well that's my whole point...
While they have a lot of talent, look at who they have to beat to win a title right now. The Lakers and Celtics are still the top 2 teams in my opinion, and as much talent as the Blazers have, they are still inferior on paper to the Lakers and the Celtics. Add the experience advantages to those teams and you’ve got a team who is at least 3 years away from seriously competing for a title. With Durant they would have their own “big 3” with Aldridge, Roy and Durant, and a supporting cast good enough too at least matchup with those teams on paper. Putting it together and matching the veteran experience would be the hard part, but they would at least be in the conversation. They are not and will not be in the conversation until those teams are out of the way, or they add another SUPERSTAR.
SCOTT
Exactly (from a Portland fan)
Oden and Durant will both be big time NBA players/perennial all stars in a few years, but Portland already had Roy, Aldridge, and the rights to Rudy Fernandez. Two perimeter guys and a jump shooting big man. Plus, at the time, Pryzbilla was having difficulty making it through a week healthy. Oden was/is the perfect fit for what Portland needed. Not saying Durant wouldn’t have done well, he’d do well anywhere. But Portland would have needed to hire D’Antoni and completely change its team philosophy to make that combination of players work. Both teams got what they needed – a big man for Portland and a scorer for the Sonics (the one thing I agree with Cs fan Bill Simmons on – I’m not using their new name, not now, not ever)
Jerryd Bayless = Marlo Stanfield
- Early stage Marlo at this point, but Bayless is the emotionless killer new to the game. He will take over, and there will be casualties – it’s just a matter of time.
Jump Shooters?
So Roy, Durant, Aldridge and Randolph are all jump shooters? While all 4 of them are very good jump shooters, all 4 can create their own shot as well. Labeling any one of these guys a “jump shooter” is very insulting. If you’ve been watching Aldridge at all this year, you’d realize he’s a lot more than a jump shooter. Roy and Durant are superstars, meaning they can pretty much score any way you let them. Randolph, although a very good shooter for a big, has an excellent post game as well. Not sure I’m with you on that.
SCOTT
All right...
But I’d still say 70% of Aldridge shots this season are jumpers, and this has been a good year for him. I wasn’t counting with Randolph, as I doubt they could have developed Roy and Aldridge with Zach still on the team, but he’s another guy who takes more jumpers than close shots.
Anyway, defence alone would make any chances of success for that team very unlikely. They’re already a bad defensive squad as presently built, imagine if you add two bad defensive players like Durant and Randolph and assign Aldridge to guard opponent centers. They’d probably outscore bad teams and beat everyone on good nights, but they wouldn’t have a chance in a series vs the best teams in the league.
Portland Fan here...
As much as I think Kevin Durant is a great player, he is not what the Blazers needed. They needed the last peice to the puzzle, they needed a big guy that could stand in the middle of the key and effect shots and play good defense. And that is what they have with Greg Oden. Greg Oden needs to do three things right now:
1. Stay out of foul trouble, and stay in the game.
2. Get down the court on every play, both on offense and defense.
3. Play good defense.
Any offense that comes on top of that is a bonus.
As far as this possible starting line up:
Roy, Fernandez, Durant, Randolph, Aldridge.
They would be a horrible defensive team, and Randolph was one of the Jail Blazers and that era has ended.
I cant say when the Blazers will make an impact in the playoffs, but I can garuntee that when Greg Oden starts putting up points on a consistent basis that this team will be one to watch out for.
Starting to regret...
Even mentioning Randolph in all of this, because it has strayed the debate immensely. The point of my post was to again compare ODEN and DURANT. So, making it a better “apples to apples” comparison, seeing what Durant is doing this year, how would you rather have Oden? Blazer Fan, your team is already one that will be feared for years to come, I’m not disputing that in any way. I’m simply talking championship, and TODAY Durant is arguably a top 10 player in the league, no question a top 20 player. Oden is a slowly developing big man with a bad injury history and the potential to maybe be a 1-2 time all star, if that. Isn’t there a bit of regret in your mind? Just a little?
SCOTT
I think Portland would make the Randolph trade anyway, so I’d just sub Oden out for Durant.
The Blazers squad would be fantastic with either player.
Possibly but..
Drafting Oden added a lot of incentive to make that move, because Oden and Aldridge were to be the future big men. You can say what you want about Randolph, but let’s not forget that he is extremely talented and has put up all star numbers in this league for years. I just think they might have re-thought letting him go if they drafted Durant instead. But thats definitely a valid point, hard to speculate on something like that.
SCOTT
But thats the problem
All Randolph gives you is numbers. He doesn’t rebound, he doesn’t score efficiently, and he gives up a ton of points by rotating poorly. Do you remember this game from last year?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=280121018
In it Randolph put up numbers, but gave up almost 10 uncontested dunks by failing to give any effort defensively. I think Portland was done with Randolph no matter what they did in the draft.
They made the right choice.
Big men win titles.
They are also being very careful with him this year. 23 minutes a game.
Finally, last year Portland was a 50% team. This year, they are up to 60%. I think they are making great progress.
Last year, Seattle was a 24% team. This year, Oklahoma is a 20% team. So apparently those big numbers are not translating into more wins.
Very nice points.
I don’t think KD would be putting up those numbers if he were in Portland. He would not be allowed to shoot as much as in OKC. I believe that he’d be getting Travis Outlaw type numbers if he were here. 12-15PPG. Plus, KD is a HORID defender at the wing. And that is our weak spot this year, defending the perimeter.
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Jan 26, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
I like KD however.
I enjoy watching him play.
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Jan 26, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Travis Outlaw?
Really? If a guy is getting 25 a night at a 47% clip from the field and 42% from 3, why would you change anything about his shot attempts? I would agree playing with Brandon Roy and Aldridge is definitely going to decrease the volume of his stats A LITTLE BIT, but Travis Outlaw numbers? He would be the number one option on Portland right now, no question. As great as Roy is, Durant is a better pure scorer. However, it is close enough that the shot distribution between Roy and Durant would be close. But Durant would lead them in shot attempts, no question, and would still average 21-23 ppg.
SCOTT
I respectfully disagree.
You are correct, Durant is an incredible scoring tallent. But I just don’t think he’d be getting the same number of shot attempts. Roy is our main guy, LaMarcus is our #2. Durant may have become the #2, but probably #3 option. But I will admit that I have not seen a lot of Durant, so I may be shooting from the hip here. I was comparing him to Trout in the sense that you pass it to him, and you know he’s going to shoot it. We may never know, maybe KD will come here as a free agent? He liked it here when we were working him out.
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Jan 26, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
Here are the responses from our side.
Toine43 asked this question on our site.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/1/24/735801/do-you-wish-you-had-durant
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Jan 26, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
I'm probably the only idiot that related KD to Outlaw though.
:-)
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
by OCBlazerFan1 on Jan 26, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you guys that Durant is a top player in this league...
But I will go back to what I said earlier. DURANT IS NOT WHAT THE BLAZERS NEEDED! We already have enough guys that can create their own shots and can put up consistent numbers. Greg may not be a superstar now or even ever, I dont know, but what he is, is the ultimate puzzle peice.
As we speak, Greg Oden has a PER of 16.85 (and we know that is not a defensive stat)
Last year, Kevin Durant – not coming back from surgery – had 15.85.
And I like Durant, as posted over on Blazer’s Edge. It’s just too early to say who will become what, and way too early to say Greg can’t become a dominant player in this league. Funny that some pundits claimed they could see Oden was a bust or at the very least not an offensively skilled player when he first ran up and down the court – or even just walked past them. Now what?
Well...
I’m certainly not saying Oden is anyway a “bust.” If you remember correctly, coming into the league people were comparing him to Bill Russell. Needless to say I do not think Oden will be the next Bill Russell. I do believe Durant will be one of the greats of all time, that is all.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on Jan 26, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Not a very valuable stat...
When you consider the role each player had in their first year. Durant was the go to guy, a very tough role for any rookie. He was also on a very bad team, still is. A lot more pressure was on Durant, so it’s not surprising at all that he was less efficient than Oden is this year, not even being the 2nd option on a very good team.
SCOTT
by Vegas Scott on Jan 26, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't use PER to compare the 2 players
They’re in both drastically different roles. But, I think of Oden learns how to keep himself on the court more, he will be damn effective. Usually young big men learn how to cut their fouls down, so I don’t fret about him “getting it.”
Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Ozzie Montana on Jan 26, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Oden's last four games
Milwaukie 24/15
Cleveland 10/8
Washington 18/14
Clippers 16/6
Avg 17/10.75.
Weak competition, of course. Ilgauskas was out for Cleveland. But Kevin Pritchard said at the start of the season that it would be about 40 games before we began to see the real Greg Oden. The Milwaukie game was Portland’s 41st, Oden’s 35th.
Seems like things are starting to click for him, and the discussion may be a little premature. If the guy is going to rack up 17/11 per game for the rest of his rookie season, I don’t think you’ll find too many Portland fans wishing they had Durant.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Well it wouldn't be a prediction....
If it were not premature. Of course a lot can happen, and yes Oden is playing very well right now. However, he’s going to have to do a lot more than 4 games of solid production to touch Durant, a guy who is on his way to one of the best second year’s statistically in the history of the game.
SCOTT
No one expected him
to approach Durant’s statistical production in years 1-3, if ever.
If Oden were averaging 17/11 for the season, Portland would probably have five more wins, and no one would criticize the choice, even with Durant’s great season.
Of course it is only four games, and when he has to play against actual centers it might not happen for him. The thing is, the Blazers were telling their fans not to expect to even start to see anything until now. Some fans expected more, but it was dreaming. It takes a while to come back from microfracture. It takes even longer for a guy whose game is built on athleticism rather than skill.
If this year had been the year we were looking to contend, Durant would have been the better choice, even if Oden had not been injured. But Roy is just hitting his peak, LMA is not there yet, our young PGs are very young, our SFs are young. We weren’t likely to win it this year, anyway. Especially since you guys are still strong this year.
Our window to really contend opens next year. Durant would probably help us more next year as well. After that, I don’t buy it.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
team needs
i agree that durant is not what portland needs and he’s redundant there. having said that, i’m glad both durant and oden are playing better lately. durant has made some nice progress from last year and i can’t believe he’s only 20 yrs old! he has similar stats as mcgrady at the same age.
oden is a wild card. i worry about his health, but hopefully if he can stay healthy (and that’s a big if), i believe portland is better off with him than durant.
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