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Rondo's Jumper

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A lot of talk is centered around Rajon Rondo this year, and for good reason.  We have gotten over the initial euphoria of getting 3 potential Hall of Famers on the same team and on the same page, sacrificing their individual games for the goal of a Championship.  In fact, we almost take those 3 guys for granted now.  We know what we can expect from them and it is in fact a surprise when any of them goes through any kind of mini-slump.

Rondo on the other hand is still fresh and new to us.  He's still coming up in the world yet he has a tremendous impact on the outcome of the games.  If he is playing well, you can bet the team is playing well.  When he struggled for a few weeks around Christmas, clearly the team had trouble overcoming that.

And of course by now everyone is aware that Rondo's Achilles heel is his jumper.  Teams have started game planning the Celtics by backing off and leaving Rondo to roam on the perimeter.  They dare him to shoot and early on he simply didn't.

Lately, however, he seems to be accepting the challenge and has started taking and making a few more shots.  He's never going to be a Ray Allen or Eddie House, but if he can at least make a 15 footer, he'll keep defenses honest and off balance.

The main point of this post (sorry that it has taken me 5 paragraphs to get to it) is to bring to light a trend that was first noticed by Justin Poulin of CSLRondo shoots the ball better off the dribble than he does in a catch-and-shoot situation.  The numbers bear it out.  We consulted an NBA scout and he confirmed that Rondo's catch-and-shoot percentages are horrendous.  However, his shooting off the dribble is very respectable.

Clearly this has something to do with his comfort level.  Rondo has a knack for keeping his dribble alive even under heavy pressure, something that sets him apart from the average point guard.  He's clearly comfortable moving with the ball in his hands.  It only makes sense that he would feel a better flow shooting off the dribble.  Put him in a situation where he's spotting up in the corner, with time to think about making or missing the shot and I can see him tightening up.

An additional trend I noticed (but don't have any evidence to back up) is the fact that he seems to make shots at the end of quarters and at the end of the shot clock.  My theory is that it has something to do with pressure.  If the shot clock is winding down, he knows that the team has run out of better options and needs to put the ball up or lose the possession.  He's essentially got nothing to lose.  So when it goes up, it is a free shot.  Almost like a quarterback dropping back when he knows the defense jumped offsides. 

Clearly he's not a great option for the end of games, where the pressure ratchets up.  However, putting the ball in his hands (like Doc does often) at the end of quarters is a good idea because he can beat his man off the dribble and either set someone up or take the shot (or layup if it is there) himself.

As Sean Grande often points out, Rondo came into the league with all the wonderful skills that you can't teach point guards.  He's learning and developing the skills that you can teach.  If and when he develops his jumper, the debate will end about his All Star chances.

Speaking of which, since I posted my article on Rondo's All Star chances, there have been a few more entries.  Feel free to peruse them after the break.

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I agree with your observations on Rondo being better off the dribble, and when the shot clock winds down. He also seems to shoot better when he has more time to set up for a shot.

In any event, the next test will be when a team sticks a bigger defender on him, who can take away his reliance on drives for scores, ala LA Lakers (Kobe) and NY Knicks (Jeffries). I am shocked more teams have not been trying that method, as it was very effective. I hope his recent improvement in outside shooting will ultimately defeat that line of defense, but I think the jury is still out.

by footey on Jan 29, 2009 9:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm fine with the Lakers Putting Kobe on Rondo...

And so should the Celtics. All that means is more stagger screens for Ray, pick and rolls with Pierce and more plays that start through Garnett. Those aren’t bad options if you ask me. Rondo made the mistake last time Kobe guarded him of trying to force the issue, “prove himself” if you will. I don’t think that’s going to be a problem the next time they meet. Rondo has already proven himself, we have too many other options. If the Lakers are going to use their best individual defender on Rondo, that to me presents a huge advantage, not a disadvantage.

SCOTT

by Vegas Scott on Jan 29, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

of course they’re good options, but the difficulty with having a bigger player on Rondo is that a guy like Kobe can become a rover and muck up the offense as a help defender. It’s not like they’re taking Kobe out of the defense and velcroing him to Rondo ala a strategy that might be employed for Ray Allen or even Eddie House. I’d rather have Rondo be the playmaker and the big 3 the finishers, not vice verse; I’m sure the Lakers and others feel the exact opposite.

by Berkcelt on Jan 29, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rondo

Rondo sometimes seems as if “style” wins over substance. He misses to many layups because he makes them trickier than need be. But I take that as him showing his confidence rather than all hat no cattle. The off the catch vs dribble numbers is a neat statistic, and one that will be very usefull to him in understanding where to improve his game. For now, if they pass it to you Rondo, dribble first. I’d like to see his free throw percentage go up. He sure takes a lot of hard, hit the cameraman fouls.

by mistaman on Jan 29, 2009 9:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

by the way

I understand fully the irony of posting a Rondo’s Jumper article the day after Eddie House put on a clinic – I’ve just had this post in mind for over a week and had to get it up

"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott

by Jeff Clark on Jan 29, 2009 9:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

maybe he should take a dribble or 2 before he shoots a free throw. it is fun watching him develop. he just seems to be the player that will grow the most on this team.

by nazzbo on Jan 29, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

What I’m liking from Rondo at the moment, is that not only is he shooting it when they give it to him, at times he’s looking to shoot the jumper, which to me means that his confidence in his game is increasing… to me that was always the biggest question mark with Rondo.

by BudweiserCeltic on Jan 29, 2009 10:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Another thought I had for Rondo is that they might want to try running some high screens for him so that he can dribble around the screen and go right into his shot. Often his defender is sagging and would go under the pick anyway, but using this strategy to get him into his shot off the dribble could pay off for him and help draw his defender closer and sometimes even go over the pick. If he can garner that kind of respect then he’ll help spread the floor more and also set up his dribble penetration drives because he is so quick to turn the corner on his man.

by Jughead on Jan 29, 2009 10:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

the pick and roll can do this too

he gets the pick from KG and turns the corner, but he’s so quick he just keeps going to the hoop

if they ever figure out how to get someone in front of him (without leaving KG open for the lob) then Rondo can start taking that stop-and-pop shot

"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott

by Jeff Clark on Jan 29, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't looked but I am going to guess he has the highest fg% of any point guard.

If not first, he must be close. That fact alone says his shot selection is great. We know without looking at stats that he must finish at the hoop as well as anyone. So he is fine ball handler, rebounder ,defender, and distributor. He may be the fastest player in the league on top of that. He may have the biggest hand to height ratio. I haven’t seen anyone else point it out but the kid is filling out too. His arms are getting bigger and shoulders more muscular.

There are only two things left to make him the greatest player ever: he has to grow 7 inches and develop a great jumper. He can only do one of those things(I think??). I hope he is listening to Doc, who wasn’t a great shooter coming out of MU either, and following Ray around in practice.

by wahz on Jan 29, 2009 10:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jameer Nelson and Tony Parker are the only guys that come to mind who can compete with Rondo’s FG% at the PG spot.

by Berkcelt on Jan 29, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah Jameer nelson is a jumpshooting Point guard and has the same fg %…a little more impressive

by TheAncientRivalry on Jan 29, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...

… Rondo’s been hitting his jumper at a rate of about 60% since the 2nd Nets game on Jan 17 (past 6 games). There was a news piece about how he’s been working on it with KG and others, taking extra time after every practice, etc. Whatever problem he had with his jumper in the beginning appears to have ended now. Rondo may turn out to be a GREAT jump shooter, with the turning point happening right before our eyes. Pretty interesting stuff in the middle of this otherwise kinda-boring blowout streak.

by DRJ1 on Jan 29, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

not ready to go that far

can’t see him ever being a “great” shooter

"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott

by Jeff Clark on Jan 29, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, rondo will never be a great jumpshooter, and this is nothing new, in my eyes he took and made more jumpers last year..he just has to be respectable

by TheAncientRivalry on Jan 29, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why not? It just takes practice.

by Brickowski on Jan 29, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

pass first

I think he’ll always be a pass first guy, which makes it much harder to develop a “great” jumpshot, especially if he doesn’t have one to begin with

"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott

by Jeff Clark on Jan 29, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure he can, and probably will be a great shooter

As Jeff said in the piece, shooting is a learned skill (as opposed to many other PG skills, which are not.) It’s perfectly possible for Rondo to be a great shooter, maybe even the BEST shooter in the league (ahem). Let’s remember that prior to Jan 17, he had NO shot that he was willing to take. After some practice and coaching, he’s hitting 60% on his jumpers over the last 6 games! To conclude that he will NEVER be a great shooter is to say that all that is a fluke, that he will revert to his old ways. Well, that’s a tough statement to make… a lot tougher than saying that he has the potential to be great.

And the fact that he is better at making his shots off the dribble than catch-and-shoot bodes extremely well for his achieving greatness. If it was the other way around (a la BBD), you could argue he’s only doing this well because he’s wide open.

The kid’s a sponge. If he wants to become a great shooter, I think he will get there. And for all we know, he could already be there. We’ll know more when we’re looking back.

by DRJ1 on Jan 29, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

possible? a lot of things are possible

probable? no

"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott

by Jeff Clark on Jan 29, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but wouldn't it be cool...

… if a couple of months from now, we can look back and say that January 17 was the turning point when Rondo went from a non-shooter to the best shooter in the NBA? Oh yeah.

by DRJ1 on Jan 29, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

keep hope alive brother

hold onto those dreams, don’t let this corrupt world beat you down

"Would I rather be feared or loved? Easy. Both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." Michael Scott

by Jeff Clark on Jan 29, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I too noticed

how Rondo would take a shot during the final seconds of a quarter, or that he shoots and makes it in most of the time when the shot clock is winding down. I thought I was the only one who noticed this, but apparently I am not. I first started assuming that maybe hes comfortable shooting under pressure letting the shot clock go down to 2 seconds, as that picture is showing. I remember clearly that he got that shot in, against Kidd…

Im happy that Rondo’s Jump shot is getting better, and now hes realizing that other teams are now going to dare him to shoot, so he has no other choice but to try his best to improving his shot. He also has been setting up a ritual of organized jump shot practice. He used to do it to play around, but now hes actually working on it in practice more often, and making it a ritual.

by Mizzy21390 on Jan 29, 2009 11:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

me too. the idea to have him dribble more while taking free throws makes sense too.

by wahz on Jan 29, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just wanted to point out...

There are only TWO players in the league that average scoring in double digits and have 5 or more rebounds per game and 8 or more assists per game.

Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo. Add to the fact that both Paul and Rondo also average over 2 steals per game and one wonders how he couldn’t make the team based only on stats and defense as compared to other Eastern Conference PGs.

I still don’t think he’ll make it because of AI making it and the plethora of other more deserving players that aren’t PGs. But, if they were going to add one PG to the East team, I’d put Rondo in.

by nickagneta on Jan 29, 2009 11:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Skills Challenge

If he doesn’t make the all star team he should at least be in the skills challenge.

by jpd985 on Jan 29, 2009 11:47 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

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