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Pennant Race In The East

From Elrod on RealGM

Now consider what is at stake in the Eastern Conference. The team that finishes the season first overall will only have to play one of the other two contenders, and it will have the home-court advantage. Everything else being equal, that is a very desirable place to be.

The teams that finish second and third will have a war with each other, and then the winner of that series gets to play the (probably well-rested) number one seed. The third place team, in particular, will have a much greater degree of difficulty. To get to the finals, it will have to defeat the other two contenders, and not have the home-court advantage in either series. Moreover, its first-round game against the sixth seed will likely be against a superior team to what the other two contenders face in their first round match up. So a matter of finishing ahead or behind in the East by simply one or two games can dramatically alter the odds of a team getting to the Finals.

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That might be true to a degree, but...

…the Hawks are currently sitting in that 4th seed. And while I have no doubt that we’d beat them in a 7-game series, the Celtics were far from rested going into round 2 last year. Getting HCA is about just that, getting HCA. It’s not about who you’re facing each round. The Celtics had probably the toughest road to the finals last year, but they were able to get through it. And part of the reason was because they had HCA throughout.

by CelticsWhat35 on Jan 30, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions  

A strange assumption

"… and then the winner of that series gets to play the (probably well-rested) number one seed. "

Really? Seems like almost every year one of the number 8 seeds raises its game and gives one of the top seeds fits. Then the number 1 plays the winner of 4/5, and, as CelticsWhat points out, the Hawks are at 4 right now. I don’t care what anyone says—the Hawks are a good team.

Home court will make a huge difference, yes; but there’s no easy road to the championship in the East any more.

by Cousin It on Jan 30, 2009 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

that may be true that we still get number eight and then scary atl if we are number one

but the odds are that road is simply not as tough as say Orl vs number six, then orl vs cle then orl vs boston. its not too much too assume that the example of bos vs Nj, bos vs atl and bos vs cle is easier.

we need hc, imho. and we right now already have a very substantial lead over cle and orl for the tie breakers. looking at the schedule, I feel certain that barring injury we will retain the lead in tie breakers. We just need to finish in a tie or better. and in the west i am predicting la LA will end up a few games worse off then us and as many as 6 or 7. there scedule gets way harder now. its ironic to me that we cauught back up to everyone just as the schedule clearly favors us.

I still want us to get another big and shooter

by wahz on Jan 30, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, honestly that would be ideal, but whoever gets the #1 seed isnt promised anything

by TheAncientRivalry on Jan 30, 2009 6:40 PM EST reply actions  

I think it's going to be pretty easy

We’ll be #1 in the East by a pretty comfortable margin, I suspect. Cs are really getting it together, and when they’re at their best, there’s just on another level compared to every other team. Playoffs are always tough, and Cleveland will surely die hard. And when we get to the Finals, I think we’ll see the Spurs there this year, though I much prefer LA… LA can be blown out, but the Spurs cannot , they’re just too solid (when they’re healthy).

by DRJ1 on Jan 30, 2009 6:43 PM EST reply actions  

Easy

hmmm…not so fast…its not going to be easy to get the # 1 seed

by TheAncientRivalry on Jan 30, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

We will see

My prediction going forward is that blowouts will be regular, tight games the exception. They’re already on another level, + getting better all the time. I’m sure you hope I’m right :)

by DRJ1 on Jan 30, 2009 7:23 PM EST reply actions  

Blowouts will be regular, tight games the exception? does that make sense?
Its the NBA, we could start playing badly as quick as we turned it around, we arent gonna play perfect every night dude

by TheAncientRivalry on Jan 30, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

the best thing about the 2-7 stretch was when it occurred. i can see another bad stretch especially if there are injuries and if we don’t get a big. i don’t care if we lose if we’re breaking in new guys or resting old ones.

by nazzbo on Jan 30, 2009 10:54 PM EST reply actions  

Wow. This may be the first thing Elrod’s ever written that I can agree with.

by CoachBo on Jan 31, 2009 11:35 AM EST reply actions  

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