An earlier version of this FanPost started as a comment in a forum thread but became so long, it makes more sense in this venue.

Bill Duffy, agent to the alien-handed, undeniably-talented Rajon Rondo, is working hard to get Rondo a contract extension. Watching the Bulls game last night, he must have loved hearing Hubie Brown wonder aloud why the Celtics hadn't already extended their point guard. As the media and fans follow the negotiations, the question most often asked is the one Duffy would love answered: "What's Rondo worth?"

But, on the other side of the negotiation, the Celtics and Danny Ainge are asking a slightly different question. "What do we have to pay to keep Rondo?" Players don't get paid what they're worth. They get paid what they can get paid. Brian Scalabrine isn't worth his contract. Kendrick Perkins is worth more than his.

If Rondo is asking for $12M per year, Ainge has to figure if there's any way he could end up commanding that next summer. Even if Rondo leads the league in assists this year or the Celtics go to the Finals and he gets loads of national exposure, I don't think there is.

Using Marc Stein's 2010 numbers published the other day, there are seven teams that *could* have about $12M to give away. The Clippers, Bulls, Wolves, and Nets make no sense as Rondo destinations because they've got elite point guards or, in the case of the Wolves, 19 point guards.

That leaves New York, Miami, and Oklahoma City. The Thunder didn't draft Ricky Rubio because they thought it would tick off Russell Westbrook and they think he's their solution at the point. So, if they do decide to spend their money in 2010, they'll likely do so on a front court player.

Leaving Rondo with two possible suitors: the Knicks and the Heat. Both will have a ton of money. And Rondo would be terrifying manning Mike D'Antoni's offense.

Assuming LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh all stay put and it's the second tier of free agents that cash in on the available money, would either of those teams offer Rondo more than he's asking right now?

The Knicks will be under incredible pressure to get a ticket seller and a cornerstone. If they whiff on the class of '03, Walsh could sell Amar'e Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer as that guy. I don't think he could sell Rondo as the Knickerbocker Jesus. Given all the hype, are Knicks fans going to be happy getting a franchise player who doesn't score? Especially as there will only be six other Knicks under contract? Maybe Walsh would pursue Rondo *after* he's got a big ticket seller, but that means he'd be offering closer to $8M or $9M per.

Miami makes some sense because, assuming they keep Wade, they've already got their marquee guy. (Wade handles the ball so much, I'm not sure Rondo's a great basketball fit, but let's ignore that for now.) The rumors coming out of South Beach all focus on the Heat obtaining a marquee big man. (Maybe, for some reason, they don't want to put their entire front court hopes in the hands of Beasley.) At this point, the bulk of their money seems earmarked to recruit Bosh, Boozer, or Stoudemire. Again, maybe Riley would turn to Rondo once he got his big man. But he'd have little left to offer.

Even if Riley or Walsh is interested in Rondo above all other players, number 9 will be a restricted free agent and, with the Celtics no doubt claiming they'll match, neither team will sign Rondo to an offer sheet and tie up their money for seven days until the marquee unrestricted free agents are sorted out. As long as other great players are available with no strings, for teams not based in Boston a UFA is a bird in hand and Rondo is two in a bush. Even if you sign him, you might not get.

Neither the Heat nor the Knicks will sit out the big-name feeding frenzy and hoard $12M-to-max money just to offer it to Rondo and then maybe not even get him. (Plus, I hear the kid has attitude problems. It was for this weekend's negotiation, I assume, that Ainge ragged on Rondo and tested his trade value this summer.) Either Miami or New York could sign Rondo to a sheet, but the chances that it will be more expensive than what the Celtics are willing to pay right now seem very slim.

Of course, this is all just wild speculation. But it's speculation Ainge and Duffy are also engaged in. If I was Ainge, I would see nothing about next summer that would compel me to move much beyond $10M per for Mr. Rondo's services. Rondo can sign that deal now or he can sign it next summer. It's up to him.

He might be worth more, but there's no reason to pay more.