Bold Predictions 2009
I've done SWAGs before, but I never could decide if they should be silly or serious. So I'm going to differentiate from those to make serious but (hopefully) bold predictions for the upcoming season.
Rondo will be an All Star (Ray Allen won't)
Ray has been borderline on the All Start team for a couple years now. My guess is that this is the year that the luck runs out for him. I don't see a tremendous drop off in production from him, but I do see Rondo stepping up and taking some of the attention away from Ray. KG will probably get voted in again, full speed or not. Pierce will likely still make the team. It is possible that the C's could get 4 All Stars, but it seems more likely that it will be limited to 3.
Ainge will trade for Nocioni sometime during the season
I'm going to predict December rather than February or earlier. Call it a hunch. I just don't see any need for Noc to be kept on the books past this season for the Kings. I do see a need for him on the Celtics. This makes too much sense not to happen. It should only take a few months for both sides to look at their rosters, look at other options, and decide that this is the best both sides can do.
Ainge will not trade for a point guard (or even pick one up mid season)
Like it or not (and in case I didn't mention it today) I don't, this team is going with a non-conventional backup point guard solution. They seem committed to it and they have good reason to. They can make it work. They can win a Championship with it. Besides, unless they pick up one of the castoffs in the next few weeks (and make a trade to free up a roster spot) then there aren't going to be a ton of good options that shake lose during the season. There is no Sam Cassell or Stephon Marbury that is going to show up on our doorstep. Those options weren't really "the answer" anyway. So I think the team will just work with what it has this year.
KG will not miss major time this year
I think he'll be less than 100% for at least a month or two. I don't think he'll play every game. But I do think that he'll play most of the season and be healthy enough for the playoffs. I don't have any inside information to back this up, but I am optimistic. With that said, let me just point out that the odds are pretty high that someone on this team will actually miss a chuck of time at some point. Age, past injuries, and simple probabilities would indicate that a fully healthy team is not likely. Bill Walker was the first to go down (if you don't count the 1 day Tony missed); who will be the next? Perk's shoulder could pop at any moment. Ray's ankles have been an underlying issue for 2 years now. Pierce has any number of issues that could progress from "annoying" to "limiting" to "out for 2 months." We haven't even discussed Scal's head or Daniels' games missed in years past. I'm not rooting for any of this by any means. Just doing my part to prepare you for the possibility.
Bonus predictions:
- Sheed will win 6th man of the year
- Tony Allen will play meaningful minutes (before he's traded)
- Lester Hudson and Shelden Williams will not
- The Celtics will turn the ball over a little less
- The Celtics won't win the most games, but will win the Championship (and really, that's all that matters)
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46 comments
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Comments
Killer Bench
More than anything else I am particularly impressed by the possibilities that Doc can create with their deeper bench. I saw their training camp aired at nba.com and I was grinning at the good fortune of having Sheed and Daniels at Boston. Scal playing at 3 with Sheed, Baby, House and Daniels is a nice line up. Three long range bombers, one who can post up (Baby) and Daniels can attack the basket or drop jumpers. I hope they can stay healthy to give us a better chance of winning the Championship.
Oh and please give Hudson and Williams some playing time. I think these guys can contribute.
by Wilbert on Oct 4, 2009 8:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
While I'm still questioning a lineup with scal at the 3...
The thought of Daniels and House playing a game of marco polo running behind the solid screens of Scal, Baby, and Sheed make me grin a little. All excellent screeners and solid shooters. I predict more than one defender will hit the floor and more than a couple times house will be wide open.
by cordialb on Oct 4, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like these predictions, Jeff
and all of them are more than possible ;)
by greenwise on Oct 4, 2009 8:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Celtics will turn the ball over a little less?
That’s just wishful thinking there, big J :]
- Dirk 'DaarisDirk' van Boxtel
by Kiorrik on Oct 4, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you agree Tony will be gone...
Then you have to conceed that there will be at least a few less turnovers..
by cordialb on Oct 4, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah crap. You're right.
Well alright, I’ll give you that much :)
Though my first post was sarcastic, I do think most of our turnovers are inherit on our style of play.
Since we’ve got a pass-first mentality, I think that makes us a bit more prone to turnovers. That’s just my crooked way of thinking though, so correct me if you don’t agree :)
- Dirk 'DaarisDirk' van Boxtel
by Kiorrik on Oct 4, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Optimism is what I live for, pessimism is what I live through. I agree on Sheed as 6th man. I do think that the Celts will have the best record in the East. Hudson is 25 and has the body of a NBA player and I do hope and believe he will break into the rotation at some point this season. And (drum roll) we will have the best D in the league! I was pleased to hear PP say how impressed he is with Marquis and how much his presence will help.
by thirstyboots18 on Oct 4, 2009 8:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Adding Players
While I am the first to say I like the players we have, I guess I am one of the people who can always be counted on to suggest a trade or new player addition. To me it is only common sense to try and upgrade in terms of younger, better players when we get the least chance.
Nocioni will be great. I think it will be a 2 or 3 for 1 deal, if we get the chance to land Spanish Chocolate along with him for a TA, Scal, House package? I gotta do it, especially if Quisy is gettin it done as our pseudo PG.
I agree with much of your prediction list. I do think that if Perk is hurt, Doc will move Sheed into the starting lineup and keep him there even after Perk comes back. Baby is going to see a lot of action this season again because Perk or KG will need a little time off.
"First fix their hearts"-Eizo Shimabuku
by billysan on Oct 4, 2009 8:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
House won't be a part of that deal...
He is too important to the 2nd unit.
by B-ball on Oct 4, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kudos
(The only thing I don’t like about the front page is that you can’t give TP’s easily. Good Post, Jeff. I am going to go give you a TP now…with much effort, LOL.)
by thirstyboots18 on Oct 4, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed with all your predictions.
I have the feeling too that they will come true. And I’m glad with all of them – except the Nocioni one, I’d rather see the Celtics trade for Outlaw (useful wing player, talented, and expiring contract).
Didn’t think of Sheed for the 6th man of the year award but it makes a lot of sense, indeed.
by Drucci on Oct 4, 2009 9:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Agree
I love Nocioni. I know there are people who don’t like him but the guy is like Matt Harpring he just beats on you. Also, he’s been coming off the bench so the role fits.
Jeff, I know you’d like to see a backup PG and the only guy that I really like is Antonio Daniels and he is available. He has the size to play with Eddie in the backcourt allowing Eddie to play the PG. He’d also allow more rest for PP during the regular season, which would be a good thing.
Another player that I think will be available is David West. I believe after Dec 15 when we can trade BBD, we could add TA and Scal (works on RealGM). This is one of those dream deals. NO wants to cut salary and we want to win a championship. Plus he’d be a nice piece for the future. Probably won’t happen just a wish!!!
by badax33 on Oct 4, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Outlaw?
The only way the Celts could get Noccioni with the garbage combination of Scalabrine and Tony Allen is because the Kings are afraid of his contract, and the Kings are generally a terrible organization.
No way that same package brings back a much better and cheaper player in Travis Outlaw.
by The_Real_Mike on Oct 5, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nocioni?
With all due respect, Jeff, I have too much respect for Ainge to think that he would ever do something that stupid. Nocioni is overrated and outrageously overpaid.
If Pierce went down with a season-ending injury I could see it happening out of desperation. Otherwise, no way.
by Brickowski on Oct 4, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We're on the same page re: the PG situation
I’m skeptical of the Daniels plan, but resigned. Actually, more than resigned: it’s actually interesting. But it’s not what I would have done.
The “Scals at the 3” theory is laughable, in my opinion. I predict we’ll be playing Daniels at both the 3 and the 1, which means a full platoon system isn’t going to work. And lest we forget, in his carreer Daniels has only averaged 58 games per season—he’s fragile.
So we’re one Daniels injury away from having no backup PG and no backup SF. That’s what is most likely to do us in, IMHO.
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
by Eeyore III on Oct 4, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the only prediction that i want to come true would be the last one
as for the rest well i couldn’t care less if injuries (knock on wood) would render the starting five to be House, TA, Scal (2010 MVP LOL), BBD, and Williams as long as we get banner 18 and beyond!
by jeric on Oct 4, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm predicting no major trades...
I think the team will hold onto Scal and Tony and let them expire. I think preserving future cap flexibility will be very important for Danny. I think Danny already has eyes for Kevin Durant, and wants to keep our cap as clear of long-term deals as possible.
I do think Rondo will be an all-star, and most importantly, I do think we’ll win the championship.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
by Roy_Hobbs on Oct 4, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bold Predictions?
I thought it sounded more like the siren song from the Good Ship Lollipop.
It is a nice sounding song however so let’s go with it and perhaps we end up @ Fantasy Island sipping drinks with the little guy while sitting under Banner 18.
BTW – just the little bit I saw last night of Shelden “Sherwin” Williams on the NBA Training camp TV show he will indeed spend a lot of time in the “paint” while he is out on the floor because he is too slow to get out of it.
Is it Soup Yet?
by Master Po on Oct 4, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My predictions...
…Mike Sweetney does not make this team.
…Lester Hudson sees less time than Bill Waker did last year, maybe a lot less time.
…Rondo will break 14 PPG, 10 APG, and 5 RPG averages.
…KG will average less than 30 MPG this year
…C’s end up with best record in the Eastern Conference as Orlando takes a tumble and Shaq and Big Z don’t stay healthy in Cleveland.
…Doc will almost exclusively play two teams, the starters and the bench, and Celticsblog will be rife with complaints of his strategy and will have a thread dedicated to this after every loss
…There will be a trade but it will be for someone that no one expects at this time.
…Rondo will sign an extension before the end of this month and Ray will become a UFA at season’s end. No prediction on whether or not he will be back next year.
… Pierce will get top 5 consideration for MVP and have one of his strongest all around seasons ever.
…Eddie House will represent the Celtics in the Three Point contest this year.
by nickagneta on Oct 4, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All strong predictions...
I disagree about Big Z and Shaq. They’ll split time and be fine and thus the Cavs will be a serious issue when it comes to getting the 1st seed.
Other than that I like all your predictions.
Rec’d
by adubson on Oct 4, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff Jeff
I agree with everything except the Nocioni guess—too much money for what amounts to about 10 minutes a night. Nocioni only shoot the 3 well—the rest of his game is in major decline. We don’t need him and we’d be wiser to let TA, Scal, et al, all expire (as Roy notes above).
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Oct 4, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i disagree...
you must have not seen much of nocioni for you to say he only shoots 3’s…
someone already said he’s in the matt harpring mold, and i agree with that. he’s a rugged slashing, banging type small forward who has 3pt range. he likes to get contact and goes to the line a lot. he can play pesky D and is a hated player for being a rugged player.
i’d get him if he’s really available (especially if it will only cost us scal, tony and giddens)…
by jaimsitecom on Oct 5, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the big deal over Nocioni?
I’m in agreement with Brickowski about him. Maybe I’ve just missed his good games but I don’t see him as much of an upgrade over Scal and this blog goes loony over what we pay Scal.
My prediction is that Rasheed does not lead the league in technical fouls but the Celtics as a team do. I predict that this will be a record year for audible “M-F’s” from my seats.
Right on about Rondo.
My SWAG prediction is that Lester Hudson gets 8-10 mins game by end of Jan.
by Wildblu1 on Oct 4, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sheed 6th Man
I certainly haven’t watched Rasheed run through any preseasons in the past, but if anyone else watched that live scrimmage last night…man did he look slow or what? I really hope he’s just going at half speed this early on and that age isn’t rapidly catching up to him…
by Silhouette on Oct 4, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Enjoyed the article:
I don’t know if either Ray or Rondo will make the star team but what matters is that both players play at all star status. Which both players will achieve. Marquis is a young sg that is gifted enough at three positions and for that reason Ray’s yearly ankle woe’s should not surface.
Point guard by committee it is. Danny and Doc both said the 15 spot is not important. But when Doc said we only go 9 deep 12 we can play so for 15, it’s not important. What if some huge injury happened and there’s no spot available .
Nocioni is really not good. The guy is 6’7" 31 yrs. makes $7.5 mil this year two yrs. at 6.5mil and another at $7.5 mil. deals like this we can do without. I almost forgot Nocioni does not even start for the Kings. Someone else mentioned Bo Outlaw who would be a much better fit. Bo is 25yrs athletic and he makes $4mil. I really really like Walker but knee injuries usually continue in some form or fashion.
Sheldon Williams will finally start to be a valuable player. His game is not all around the paint but in the paint. There are not a wealth of players able to play in the paint. Sheldon will start to shine.
Not only will we have the best record in the NBA but we will have one the best records ever in the NBA and the championship. I also believe we will beat the Spurs.
by tyquinton on Oct 4, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My predictions...
-Rondo: all-star, but Rose starts (fair or not)
-Rondo makes all defensive team
-Rondo averages 2.5 + steals a game
-Rondo won’t win the MVP, of course, but he will be on the top 10 list.
-The 2nd unit puts teams away, and leads league in points and in defense.
-If healthy, the celtics will win 70+ games. I won’t back down from this. I don’t think they will pace themselves. They have the best starting 5 and the best bench in the league.
-We will see a Perk, KG, and Rasheed line-up allot. In fact, teams will have to reconfigure their offensive around this.
-TA will see more consistant minutes.
-Lamar, not Sheed, will win 6th man, but Sheed will be far more important.
-Number one defense hands down.
-The Celtics will give the Magic a full-on smack down everytime they play, same with the Bulls.
-Celtics/Lakers finals: 7-games, and Celtics win!
by B-ball on Oct 4, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bolder prediction:
Rondo will be the only Celtic to make the all star team. The reasoning is, KG will take it easy for atleast the first half of the season, and will not get the numbers to get into the all star game. Ray, because ROndo will take the attention away, and there are a lot of really good guards in the East (Wade, Rose, Harris, Mo Williams, etc.) And Pierce because A) his production will probably drop off a little B) he’s probably the least popular Celtic among other fans. Now that Rondo has the national attention, if he puts up something like 15 ppg, 9-10 apg, 5-6 rpg, 2+ spg (entirely in the realm of possibility) then Rondo’s a shoe-in.
by misterx2day on Oct 4, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The flaw in your post is in the second line.
“KG will take it easy”
I stopped reading after that.
;)
- Dirk 'DaarisDirk' van Boxtel
by Kiorrik on Oct 4, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, i mean in terms of minutes. That was my bad. Here’s the revised sentence
KG won’t play enough minutes to put up all star numbers*
by misterx2day on Oct 4, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Do Agree
I do agree that the Celtics will win the finals, but in 5 games, and against the spurs
by tenor1n2 on Oct 4, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Finals...
Celtics over Lakers in 5 games {or less}!
They`ve clinched titles at the LA Sports Arena {`63}…The Forum {`68 & `69}.
Time to complete “The Trilogy” ….and clinch inside Staples!
by Title 18 on Oct 4, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would love Nocioni here.
Perfect fit for this team. Especially if it only costs Scal and TA. Come on, that’s a no brainer..
by BWC on Oct 4, 2009 7:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t take him for free. I’m not paying 7 million a year for a 10-15 minute a game player who doesn’t defend. The only positions he can play are one one Pierce plays, and the one KG plays. They already have backups for KG (Sheed, Baby) and Pierce (Daniels) , and all of those backups are better than Nocioni.
So what’s the point? Where’s the fit?
by Brickowski on Oct 4, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if we're trading with sacremento
i’d rather have beno udrih. that being said, nocioni has the range to stretch the floor and open up the lane for rondo.
by hooray on Oct 6, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only thing that will prevent the Lakers fro repeating
is the fact that Phil Jackson is in the last year of his contract and he has a tendency to do weird things in this position at least with the Lakers.
by thereallargejames on Oct 4, 2009 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
prediction: tommy will kiss a replacement ref on national tv.
by nazzbo on Oct 4, 2009 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
> 68 wins
and Ainge Stands Pat with this roster.
I have a really good feeling about this season.
by D Dub on Oct 4, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
optimistic
I wasn’t even aware of there being a positive or negative bent to these predictions but reading back through them, I have to agree – I guess I’m just a kool aid drinking fanboy this time of year
I’m sticking with my 60 win prediction though – as Doc said, there were some games they won last year where they weren’t playing all that great
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
by Jeff Clark on Oct 5, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

























