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Do you know what else wins championships? Rebounding

I had a stats class at the start of my MBA program.   There was a final project in the class where each student had to pick a topic and create a statistical model.   My topic - what are the characteristics of a winning NBA team?   It turned out that rebounding was the most important quality in a championship team.   The intuition behind this was rather simple to me, more rebounds creates more possessions for you and less for the opponent, and therefore will lead to more points and wins.  

Last night the Atlanta Hawks dominated the glass, out-rebounding the Celtics by 16 boards (47 to 29), including 16 offensive boards (to the Celtics 6).  It seemed that there were some rotation issues that resulted in the Hawks, particularly fan favorite ZaZa Pachulia, getting a few cheap offensive boards.  Wednesday night, the Celtics were out-rebounded the Jazz by six, and importantly the Jazz also collected 17 offensive rebounds.  

So far this season the Celtics game-by-game total rebound differentials are  +6, -2, +6, +3, +5, -4, +3, -3, -6 and -16. The offensive board stats are even worse: 0, -4, -6, -1, -4, +2, +5, -6, -5, and -10

This is not a good sign for banner 18 hopes.  Today the Celtics are 28th in the league in offensive rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding.   While its early in the season and this is a small sample size, the Celtics will need to improve considerably before playoff time.   In the 2008 championship season the Celtics were the 17th best offensive rebounding team and eight best defensive rebounding team.  Last year's team was eight best offensive rebounding team and third best defensive rebounding team on a percentage basis - and that was without Kevin Garnett for roughly half of the season.  

So why are the Celtics under performing on the glass this season?

Star-divide

Looking at the individual rebounding numbers (total rebound percentages for ease of comparison), a couple of points jump out.

Total Rebound % by Season 

Table_medium

(all stats from basketball-reference.com)

Garnett is roughly 1% point behind his typical pace and Rajon is roughly 2% behind his production.   Hopefully Kevin is still working his way back from the knee injury and that rate will increase over time, however Rajon's stats are tougher to explain.    On the bench side Rasheed and Shelden are basically replacing the production of Glen Davis and Leon Powe.  

So maybe the comparative under performance from KG and Rajon are what is causing the Celtics to slip down the league rankings, or maybe the poor rebounding numbers are an artifact of a small sample size and some flukey plays.   Either way, Doc & the staff should be concerned and hopefully are working on a way to remedy this situation starting tonight - against a solid rebounding team in the Indiana Pacers. 

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I said it all summer ...

What wins championships? Defense and rebounding. You don’t have to be a great offensive team to win a championship in basketball if you have great rebounding and great defense. Said it all year long.

BTW, Green17, send me an e-mail or PM, I have something I need to discuss with you.

by nickagneta on Nov 14, 2009 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

Garnett is not moving as quickly laterally, so he’s slow to get to the defensive rebound. He also has timing problems (see missed layups, as well as the fact that he keeps losing rebounds over his back).

Let’s hope it’s just rust and not physical deterioration as a result of the surgery.

by kozlodoev on Nov 14, 2009 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Celtics need to get hungy and more physical going after rebounds.

The Celtics have the size, strength and length to out rebound most teams they play against but are not playing physical enough or are hungry enough at times to rebound with other teams.

They have to get tougher, more hungrier and crash the boards as a team to remedy minor rebounding problem they are having!

They also have to reduce the amount of deep jumpers Garnett & Rasheed are taking to help the rebounding cause, since both players when they take such shots are never in vicinity of the basket or in position to go after offensive rebounds.

The C’s have the physical skills and talent to rebounding, but they miss the heart and motivation at times to do so.

This is a mental problem that Doc can easily I think remedy with a good old fashion team meeting.

by leothetiger on Nov 14, 2009 2:09 PM EST reply actions  

True leothetiger........

Garnett and Rasheeds outside shooting are weapons and must be utilized, but they must not over do it since they are our primary big guys along with Perk and need to be low post inside rebounding factors as well.

Its not fair when they are both out on the floor and they are both sitting in the high post just waiting to take a long jumper, leaving no big man inside to rebound.

Even when Perk is on the floor with either Garnett or Rasheed its still not fair having him down low alone and having them deep on the outside leaving poor Perk all alone down low to rebound.

Garnett and Rasheed must balance their games and go to the hoop more for low post offensive moves so they can also help out on the offensive boards.

I agree this is something that Doc is responsible to correct and should hopefully be bale to do so easily and quickly.

by celtics #1 on Nov 14, 2009 2:25 PM EST reply actions  

I expect that they are embarrassed about this, and i believe that PP will be crashing the boards tonight. He seemed to be doing it all year, but it didn’t show up last night.

Although I’d rather lose to other good teams than to lay eggs against crap like we did last year.

by jesse_stoneham on Nov 14, 2009 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

we have 3 guys 6'10" or taller

in KG, Sheed, and Perk

we should be able to get more boards

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Nov 14, 2009 2:31 PM EST reply actions  

But Jeff

Rebounding is more than just size, it’s about heart and positioning. We showed neither last night. This team’s biggest problem is fire, something rarely missing a few years ago. However, it’s a long season and I expect them to be hungry by April.

by overthebackboardooh on Nov 14, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

‘This team’s biggest problem is fire,’

Or, positioning? With Kg and Sheed setting up outside, only Perk/Sheldon is on hand to box out—if the opponents bring a gang, its not enough.

by Tenacious D on Nov 14, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

True...

Those 3 can and must do a better job rebounding, period.

But obtaining a taller legit 7 footer with rebounding skills ( which I have been calling for months the C’s add to the roster) too come off the bench when we face these rebounding funks would be nice to have.

I still urge the C’s to try to trade either T. Allen, Scalabrine, Baby or a combination of the 3 for such a player since I have had a concern with the clubs rebounding weakness, currently obvious since the beginning of the season.

by celtics #1 on Nov 14, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting

I still think I’d rather see a legit 3 to back Paul.

by overthebackboardooh on Nov 14, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Perkins isn't 6' 10"

Not that it makes a huge difference, but I have never believed that Perkins is 6’10" (same with Al Jefferson). He’s more that an inch shorter than Wallace or Garnett and when he plays a seven footer, the height difference is very apparent. Bill Russell was a shade under 6’10’’ and Perkins doesn’t have his length.

by frank gibbons on Nov 14, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

the good news

is that we’ve cut down our turnovers a bit so far

we were 15 per game last year (3rd worst) and this year we are down to 13.7 (middle of the pack on the good side)

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Nov 14, 2009 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

Good point...

Last year turnovers for the C’s were a big problem.

Its good to see them at improve and remedy the problem a bit this year.

by celtics #1 on Nov 14, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Tough to get boards when

the majority of the team is hovering around the 3-point arc for most of the game. Rarely does the ball bounce all the way back to the 3-point line. Not to mention we dont crash boards…

by Jimmy Toscano on Nov 14, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions  

Yes..

Very true observation which is one reason for the C’s poor rebounding at times.

The good news is this can easily be corrected (as soon as tonight even) simply by having Doc order the team to “CRASH THE BOARDS” and not always stay out on the perimeter !

Simple corrections like that by Doc can easily help remedy our rebounding woes.

by celtics #1 on Nov 14, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Will get fixed

Offensively, the Celts philosophically don’t crash the boards, as they focus on getting back in transition, a good idea for this team, especially when playing against teams that like to run like the Hawks.

Defensively, a big problem last night, and can be for a great help defensive team, is that when the bigs rotated to help the penetration, their guy was free to clean up the glass. As Doc said, the guards have to rotate down and box out, which is not real instinctive. I believe they will emphasize this moving forward and we will see more support rebounding in the games to come.

by KJ33 on Nov 14, 2009 2:56 PM EST reply actions  

Hopefully, no repeat...

1986 : Celts dominate
1987 : Injuries prevent repeat
1988 : Aging team goes out quietly

2008 : Celts dominate
2009 : Injuries prevent repeat
2010 : Aging team………..

by Title 18 on Nov 14, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions  

What about the REFS ?

The darn referees were a 6 pt swing last night.

Team needs Baby back.

by Snowball on Nov 14, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

The team didn't bother to rebound or hit foul shots

Especially on a night like that, complaining about the referees is embarrassing.

-sw

Growing up in the Weinman household, you learn two rules very quickly if you aspire to reach double-digits in the years-of-age category: Hate thy Knick, hate thy Yankee.

Go Celtics, Go Dodgers. -sw

by Steve Weinman on Nov 14, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

SW is on fire!

When Perk was asked what he thought of Howard winning the gold medal this summer, he responded: "What’s his impression of me after I won a ring?"

by Green17 on Nov 14, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

obvious and not-so obvious

The reason why the Celtics are doing so poorly with offensive rebounding is directly related to their offensive structure. Garnett plays outwide; so does Wallace – even Perkins is often out around top of the key receiving passes as part of the rotation.As long as the three-pointer remains a primary option, offensive rebounding will be lacking. Not so sure about defensive rebounding – maybe a product of defensive set – team defense, constant switching may leave bigs out of position – I know Garnett is constantly straying away from inside to outside. So the issue is whether poor rebounding caused by (1) lack of rebounding talent’ (2) lack of hustle; or, (3) structural – a negative side effect of a three-point offense and switching defense?

by dcrane on Nov 14, 2009 4:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

use the bum and keep percentages

they have got to box out. here is the problem as i see it: they are trying to go after all the rebounds. they are all such great athletes, and were each always the best or nearly the best athlete on the floor at all levels that they are accostomed to being able to just go after it and win the race or the jump. and this becomes a mind game where they try harder and harder to go after it as rebounding becomes a problem. meanwhile they are no longer the best athletes. josh smith and joe johnson and the like can beat garnett and sheed and ray allen to balls. they are the older guys now. they are even at best athletically. thats ok but the strategy has to change. now it has to be about driving their rear ends into people and routing them out, away form the basket and catching boards in front of them like tommy heinsohn says. as a short but strong guy I am quite familiar with this, gotta use strength and the rear end to get guys out of there, forget about out jumping or out quicking people. (talking about the d glass, obviously). and there is a great feeling of pride in accomplishment in rebounding this way, its about dominance and control. it is real hard to jump or move where you want to as an offensive rebounder when the defender has inside position and is concerned more about moving you than about the ball.

and btw, can we get a movement going for keeping rebounding numbers in terms of percentages instead of totals? it should be about percentage of defensive boards sucured. the c’s are always going to give up a few more O boards than average just because we keep opposing field goal percentage so low and that is fine, but the percentage has to be good. that is how those states should be discussed. comparing our O boards to their O boards when they are shooting 35% and we are shooting 60% makes no sense. What is the league average for D board percentage anyway, I would just wildly guess it is upward of 80%, any idea?

by chicagogreen on Nov 14, 2009 5:18 PM EST reply actions  

oh and I am not talking about offensive boards at all, they are totally different animal. and we can win just fine being just ok or even subpar on the offensive boards but we have got to be good on the defensive boards

by chicagogreen on Nov 14, 2009 5:19 PM EST reply actions  

yikes, no option for going back an editing entries? sorry about the weird writing errors in there

by chicagogreen on Nov 14, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

last year in the playoffs rondo was our best rebounder. obviously he can’t do everything but we missed him on the boards last night. powe was a great offensive rebounder for us and he’s gone

by Red2 on Nov 14, 2009 5:34 PM EST reply actions  

refs

the referees were a factor. i don’t think anyone should be embarrased to lost to this Atlanta team . Like KG said weeks ago they are vastly improved and you know Atlanta has a recent rivalry with Boston.

by Snowball on Nov 14, 2009 5:41 PM EST reply actions  

I have two words

Leon PO(we) – look at your statistics!!!!!

Good article ….but it gets me angry

and why would Jeff say we have three people 6"10 or more – how about Scal? he is listed at 6ft 10". He couldn’t grab an ornament from a Christmas tree and speaking of not grabbing much…..

Perkins is averaging 1.1 offensive rebounds per game these 1st ten games and only 6.5 rebounds per game total! He doesn’t put many points on the boards, he obviously isn’t crashing the boards, he make stupid fouls, especially offensive ones the disrupt the flow……Perk to me is a disappointment to me this year so far. Come on Perk!!!!

I think Rondo is the best offensive rebounder we have!

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Nov 14, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions  

but Shelden is actually doing a better job on the glass than Leon. AND he can actually play right now, while Leon cannot.

When Perk was asked what he thought of Howard winning the gold medal this summer, he responded: "What’s his impression of me after I won a ring?"

by Green17 on Nov 14, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

agree, the lost of Leon hurts now...

… he was the main guy, crashing the boards for us, because he doesn’t wait away from the basket for a shot. All of our big man, expect Perk, have an outside jumper and thats the main reason for getting lesser OR. On the other side – I don’t think that offensive rebounds are the main reason for our embarrassing loss – it was rebounding on the D and thats describes it all – you can not let them have 16 O-boards and the bunch of second chances they had then afterwards.
If you look at K.G.s stats over years, you recognize a lot of aging, but I still hope as a fan that they can repeat this year with a lot of FIRE-improvement of course ^_° – and if that doesn’t happens, try to get DWade next year for Allen and some bench-players – that will do it!

I asked god and he said: L.A. will lose again next year!! ^_°

by greenmech on Nov 14, 2009 7:19 PM EST reply actions  

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