The Run Starts Now
by Jeff Clark on Nov 21, 2009 4:52 PM EST
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38 comments
It is easy to predict good things when things are going well and to complain when things are going poorly. Or said another way, it is easy to yell "buy" when the market is going up and "sell" when it is going down. But it takes a special kind of talent (read: luck) to guess when the market has bottomed out or topped off.
I'm making a few bold and contrarian predictions right now. The Celtics will win at least 5 games in a row starting Sunday night against the Knicks. They will also lose at most 3 of the 14 games before meeting the Magic again on Christmas (so that's at least an 11-3 run).
Despite the team's recent woes, I feel pretty confident in these predictions for a few reasons. For one thing, the competition isn't all that great over the next few weeks. The Knicks, 76ers, and Raps don't exactly strike fear into anyone. Sure, on any given night any team can beat anyone and the C's have already lost to the Pacers, but the Celtics should at least be favored in the majority of these games. The Spurs are the best team on paper in that stretch and they are struggling worse than we are right now.
For another thing there aren't many back to backs in that stretch. Of course the bad news is that there are two road trips in that stretch but I don't think that will be too much of a problem.
This team has been humbled. They know what they need to do. They just have to go out and do it. They have a chance to get back on track against some of the lesser teams in the league and once they start rolling, they'll pick up momentum and start rounding into form.
At least that's what I think is going to happen. So feel free to bookmark this and come back in a few weeks and remind me of it. I'll either be a genius or exposed as a pathetically blind homer. Which is cool with me either way.
So how about you? Are you on board with this prediction?
The next 5 games should go a lot better than the last 5. I guaranSheed it.
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I'm going to tomorrow's game
I also went to the Warriors/Knicks game last Friday. The game was over by the end of the 3rd quarter, with the Knicks losing. I’m coming to town again tomorrow, so the Knicks are doomed. They don’t know it yet. : )
Oh, and they just had to play the hapless Nets. Back to back for them FTW?
I’ll also assume our slump from long range will end with the Knicks. We will not shoot 2-19 from 3-pt range for the whole season. It’s not going to happen.
by Tai on Nov 21, 2009 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree with you Jeff... Last nights game will definitely spark the team!
by Mike-Dub on Nov 21, 2009 5:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
But the games after that the next 5 we face some teams that could give us a loss in...
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Washington, Chicago, and Indianna (they always play us tough).
by Mike-Dub on Nov 21, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think you are right. i thought after the first they played really well and while watching the game I thought, win or lose, it was something they needed. (although we never play well in the afternoon, hopefully the knicks are so bad it wont matter).
by chicagogreen on Nov 21, 2009 5:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not so sure about that...
Here’s what I see so far… I see uncertainty in most areas of the team’s game execution so far – I also see the evidence of some purpose in that uncertainty, especially on the sidelines . Doc and staff are both putting forth what they think will work based on the training sessions to date, and also experimenting – because they know they have some time and room to ‘find out’ what happens when you put different sets of guys together in different types of game spots. So, uncertainty due to multiple factors, including the learning process of working the games of Marquis and Rasheed into the rotation.
I see Garnett is being careful with the knee. He’s not pushing it recklessly. Good. We all want to know if it will hold up to the grind, and he’s been very good and getting better (timing-wise) as we go along.
Paul and Ray are in the midst of the adjustment to including Marquis and Rasheed. Their games are in the (come-and-go) stage during adjustment. Time is all that needs, familiarity with what really works. Amazing that these pros who are all starting all star types can just become a ‘street team’ so easily, just caring about the win, not stats, although the results are mixed lately.
Perk is fired up. He can smell the banner. He should keep it up. Most honest commenter on the team.
Rondo, Rondo, Rondo… settle down already, it’s a long season… we need you to be “READY”, so forget the ‘big play’ mentality and work on being solid at the line… study Dennis Johnson’s approach to playing with the old big three…
As for eddie and the rest, I see eyes bigger than stomachs. Only Sheldon gets it, just be the role, not ‘the man’ in the role…
by jyrecelts on Nov 21, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
finally... a sense of urgency
There have been two games this year where the C’s showed the sense of urgency that carried us in 07-08. The Cleveland game and last night. As many have said before me and players (Perk) the celtics are assuming their individual talent alone will carry them through. That may be the case for about 3/4 of our schedule but not the elite teams. As we saw in indiana it may not even have to be an elite team.
I agree with you Jeff. I believe the last 4 games have been the wake up call they needed. I believe we needed to lose to orlando to get out swagger back. Hopefully the team realizes that urgency is needed no matter if they are playing the magic or the clippers.
Hopefully we will see this come to life.
by Chasingbanner18 on Nov 21, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sounds a lot like when
in 08 you predicted bos over atl in 5, then 6, and finally 7. No amount of pep talk or prognostications gets us through this. The best thing that can happen to this team will happen—a long road trip. Get the hell out of dodge and figure out if you are contenders or pretenders. When december is over, we’ll know the answer.
My money is on pretenders.
by Black Jack Pershing on Nov 21, 2009 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. i think the issues may transcend being ‘ready to play" and ’wanting it’. Spirit seemed willing on friday, flesh, however…
by Tenacious D on Nov 22, 2009 8:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Run Has Already Started
And it’s in the wrong direction.
by Brickowski on Nov 21, 2009 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Son, I've been watching the NBA Since Before You Were Born
Probably, anyway. I’ve seen this before. I hope I’m wrong, but I do not think so.
They will make the playoffs and maybe get to the ECF. But that’s the best case scenario this year. And next year, they will be a year older.
by Brickowski on Nov 21, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't sound good but i think ur right
Looks like rebuilding will start after this season. but at least wait for bbd to come back before we start saying they won’t make the finals
by vgarcia890 on Nov 21, 2009 6:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
A Little History
This has happened to the Celtics 4 times.
1. 1970. They endured some losing after Russell retired, with Hank Finkel at Center. But Auerbach engineered some high draft picks, and selected Cowens and Jo Jo White, plus they had a reklatively young Havlicek and Don Nelson. Then Red engineered the trade for Silas, and the rest is history.
2. 1979. The Havlicek and Cowens teams got old. But Auerbach hadn’t lost the touch. He drafted Bird a year early, drafted McHale, and engineered the Joe Barry Carrol for Robert Parrish switch. And the rest is history.
3. 1988. The Bird teams were getting old. They could have won a couple more championships with Len Bias and a brilliant selection late in the draft, Reggie Lewis. But we all know what happened, and after the tragic death of Bias they just hung on with the declining veterans until it was too late. As a result (and as the result of their failure to get Duncan) hey were unable to get past the second round until 2007-08.
Note that all of these rebuildings were centered around the draft, not trades.
4. 2009 The Parish-Pierce-Allen team is getting old. It remains to be seen whether we will endure more years of decline, followed by a few atrocious years, before they get better. Ainge can spped the recovery, but only if he is proactive.
San Antonio has the same problems, and Richard Jefferson won’t solve them. Time is catching up to Duncan and Ginobili too, just as it caught up to Bowen.
by Brickowski on Nov 21, 2009 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just a question
At point in those seasons did you know those other teams were “done”? I have a hunch it wasn’t 13 games.
by Tai on Nov 21, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We made it to the Confrence Finals in 2002...
Veterans win in this league… The average age for the ’96 Bulls was 30.1 years old and the average age for this Celtics team is 27.8… Oh and Brick do you forget that we have Rondo and Perk in our starting lineup who are 23 and 25 years of age.
by Mike-Dub on Nov 21, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1970—
Zero games
1979—
When Cowens took a leave of absence
1988
Not until the end of the year
2009
13 games
by Brickowski on Nov 21, 2009 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What about in '69... When we had a 48-34 record and were the fourth seed in the East...
How long did it take for you to figure out that team was done… Oh wait we won the NBA Finals that year!
by Mike-Dub on Nov 21, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
`69 was very misleading...
—Boston had several nagging injuries during the regular season, but was actually quite healthy during the playoffs.
—NY upset Baltimore in first round {Balt. was best team in regular season}.
—LA was not the power-house in `69 that people portray them to be. They had absolutely nothing beyond West-Wilt-Baylor…and only West was in his prime. So was Havlicek, and he pretty much canceled out West. Boston more than held their own against the Lakers in their 6 regular season match-ups that year.
by Title 18 on Nov 21, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So basically
Boston started off weak, and finished strong.
Thanks.
by Tai on Nov 22, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, LA was an overrated team that year...
Lakers were just a 55-27 team that year….winning games by a 112-108 differential that year.
Boston was winning by a 111-105 spread on average.
by Title 18 on Nov 22, 2009 5:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brick---excellent re-cap of each "run" coming to an end!
However, Cowens took his leave of absence, to drive a taxi, in 1976-77.
It coincided with Silas getting traded out of Boston…with Wicks & Rowe arriving.
The following year {1977-78} was a disaster, with Heinsohn getting fired mid-season, and Jo Jo traded.
by Title 18 on Nov 21, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and your point is/
Brick – as thick as ?
Is it Soup Yet?
by Master Po on Nov 21, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What makes you think we are going to get by the Knicks tomorrow? They have a bunch of scorers and we havent been defending that great, so Its going to be a tough game tomorrow and Im not so sure we can keep up with those fresher legs. Hope Im wrong, but I dont think I am.
by Reyquila on Nov 21, 2009 9:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Magic have a bunch of scorers too
even without Nelson, and they only scored 83.
Welp, you asked. We may as well stick to the facts: if we can score against the Knicks (78 points IS NOT SCORING), we probably win.
by Tai on Nov 21, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the judgment may be premature, and I certainly hope I’m wrong. I’d love this team to win a championship.
But I go by what I see, not just in the losses, but in the wins, too. It’s as though they have collectively lost a step.
by Brickowski on Nov 21, 2009 9:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well I am certainly in Agreement with this Article
Good Post.
After thoroughly thinking about last night’s frustrating loss, the thought came to my mind about last year this time.
I remembered that last year at this time the Celtics were either in progress of or about to start our near-historic run of 19 Games in a row….over playoff teams, teams on the road, you name it.
Yes our streak ended in LA (Celtics played them tough for about 44 min, though), but that streak pushed us to 27-2. And the streak occured with a much more inexperienced bench.
This years Celtics are much deeper. Yes they apparently are still trying to work out kinks, but this will all come together.
And another plus I have been noticing: Our Starters are on pace to be Extremely well-rested by the playoffs the way Doc is platooning them. He is using our bench to limit our starters to between 28-33 min per game, from what I have been seeing.
Maybe we would have lost a few less games so far by playing our starters 40-45 min, but that’s not how our team is built this year. Our bench is much, much better this year.
This will all come together, soon. Even I cannot figure out why we were missing open shots last night, but this all will pass.
Then the Celtics BandWagon will be running again-with no empty seats. And I’ll be driving it.
Defense wins games (And Championships)!
by Celtics18and19 on Nov 21, 2009 10:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The run starts only because of inferior competition
Hopefully they will use it as a stepping stone to the next level
by vinnie on Nov 21, 2009 11:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am so glad!!!!!
that I officially got to push a button that says you are a Homer…..that was so sweet
Is it Soup Yet?
by Master Po on Nov 21, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gear or Tune-up?
The premise of being humbled and ready to turn it on is that the were playing in 2nd gear and just need to shift up to cursing speed. But what if they need a tune up, fresh plugs & a new muffler? Im thinking it may take longer to get it fixed.
For ex—just consider the Knicks & Raps: what happens if either club gets hot from the perimeter and the Cs arent into chasing them—or if RR plays matador w/Nate, Duhon and Coldoron, or if KG/RW cant move laterally to keep up w Lee/Bosch? And that’s just 2 games.
by Tenacious D on Nov 22, 2009 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
wow....
lol this is a very homer like prediction you the celtics played terrible once again i dont think they can win 5 in a row unless they play bad teams (havent looked at the schedule but the suck right now to say the least
by doublettoluca on Nov 22, 2009 7:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
they barely beat the ny knicks come on…. i think there the 5th best team in the east right now behind the magic,bucks,hawks,cavs
by doublettoluca on Nov 22, 2009 7:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I TOLD you soooooooooooooo
LOL
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
by Jeff Clark on Dec 1, 2009 9:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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