KG: Klutch Guy
We've discussed Kevin Garnett and whether or not he is fully recovered from his knee injury repeatedly and at length on this blog. In fact, I think Jeff put a moratorium on discussing it at one point (or was that KG himself?) [Editor's note: yeah, that was KG, not me. Knock yourselves out.] Without delving too deeply back into that subject, the numbers tell us that, while he will probably never go back to being the player he was when he won an MVP award in his late-twenties, he has been putting up similar numbers to last year and in recent weeks, has even been approaching the numbers he put up in his first season in Boston.
However, I wanted to talk about a strange apparent side effect from the off-season surgery that nobody seems to be talking about. When did KG become so clutch?
Remember the 2008 playoffs? The Celtics couldn't win a close game and Garnett came under fire for "disappearing" down the stretch (offensively, at least). He came up big with a couple of late jumpers and the game winning lay-up with 21.4 seconds remaining in Game One against the Cavs and got the roll on a short turnaround late in Game Four's comeback win in the finals, but other than that, he more often than not did not produce down the stretch in close games and those two games were highlighted as the exceptions that proved the rule.
Garnett was so intense, so 100-miles-per-hour-at-all-times, that it seemed like when they reached the last few minutes of a tight game, either he was spent, or he didn't have another level to take it to, unlike everybody else. Maybe he was even affected by nerves as the Celtics drew closer and closer to the title.
In the end, it didn't matter. The Celtics had plenty of other go-to options down the stretch and Garnett's play was pivotal in getting the Celtics to that position, almost like a starting pitcher going seven strong innings and then getting his bullpen to finish the job. However, you couldn't help but wonder if the potential of this team could be even greater if he was more of an offensive threat down the stretch.
Fast forward to this season and, in particular, the Knicks games at MSG on November 22nd. With the game in the balance in the fourth quarter, exactly the time where Garnett's reputation would have us believe that he would be a shrinking violet, Garnett was 1-for-10 and, at that stage, was shooting 47.6% on the season. Suddenly, with the pressure on and the Celtics trailing by six, he knocked down a jumper to cut the lead to four. A couple of minutes later, he knocked down a pair of free throws to put Boston up by one. With the scores tied and 1:07 to go, he made another jumper to give Boston the lead. Finally, in overtime, his buzzer beater from the top of the key gave the Celtics a 107-105 win.
But that's just one game, right? Not necessarily. Since that game a pattern is starting to form:
November 25th - Celtics lead the Sixers by six with 3:03 to go. Garnett's lay-up is good to make it an eight point game and they hold on to win 113-110.
November 29th - Celtics lead by one with 2:12 to go. Garnett's jumper is good to push the lead out to three. Later, up by four, he ices the game with another jumper with 38.3 seconds to go.
December 3rd - San Antonio has just pulled within six with under five and a half minutes to go. With the shot clock winding down, Garnett's running hook shot makes the lead eight again and proves to be the crucial bucket as a low scoring finish sees the Celtics only hit one more shot en route to a 90-83 win.
December 8th - With the Bucks within five, Garnett hits a short jumper with 2:12 to go. He later ices the game with a jumper with 38 seconds remaining and the Celtics go on to win 98-89.
December 10th - With the Celtics up by one and 4:01 to go, Garnett nails a jumper to keep Boston up by three. They go on to win 104-102.
December 14th - With the Celtics clinging to a two point lead, Garnett's jumper with 1:20 to go is good and they hang on to win 110-105.
Sure, none of these were game winners, but all of them were clutch shots, late in ballgames that the Celtics could have lost if he had missed. This hasn't happened with such regularity since he arrived in Boston.
Of course, Garnett has been on fire generally, not just in the clutch, ever since that fourth quarter at MSG, shooting an incredible 72% since then and averaging 18.1 points per game, but has the clutch play actually been there all season? Is it possible that when he went in to get his wheel fixed, that they actually replaced his clutch too, without telling us?
Prior to that Knicks game, there were only five games this season that were not decided by a double-digit margin, so let's look at those.
They won two: On opening night, with the Celtics up six against the Cavs, Garnett's jumper with 2:43 to go was good, pushing the Celtics to a six point win. Against the Timberwolves, the Celtics won by two and Garnett had the crucial play on defense, tying up Corey Brewer to preserve the win, although he didn't score in the fourth quarter. (You may recall he had a similar clutch defensive play against Sebastian Telfair, when the teams met in Boston two years ago.)
Even in two of the three close losses that they had (to the Suns and the Magic), Garnett had a couple of hoops in the fourth quarter of each game as the Celtics kept it close, so the Celtics do seem to be getting a pattern of clutch offensive play from their talismanic defensive leader.
I wondered if maybe the fact that they've been careful with him has meant that he played fewer minutes and therefore had more reserves in the tank, but he's been playing more or less the same number of minutes as he has since he arrived in Boston. He did average 38 minutes in the 2008 playoffs though, so fatigue could be one reason for some of his struggles down the stretch at that time (which is where this reputation was partly founded). Could it just be that he is playing with more freedom emotionally, now that he has a title to his name? Or maybe that knee operation has improved his overall level of play and this is paying dividends in crunch time.
Perhaps even more feasibly, maybe the reputation he has earned was never true in the first place. The myth that Garnett isn't clutch was debunked here before the season (and Garnett's repeated examples of clutch play) even began.
The reputation persists though. Garnett's has apparently not yet earned (back?) the reputation as a clutch player. Liam Martin's article for NESN.com stated that
Boston has three [options in clutch time]: Pierce from the elbow, Ray from 3 or Rondo on the drive.
Maybe we can make that four. (Maybe even five when we can finally say "Baby Got Back").
Whatever the reason, Garnett is delivering timely baskets for this team that have been crucial, as they have won seven of the eleven games in this winning streak by fewer than ten points and he has come up big in every single one of them.
Not bad for a fourth option.
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Nice article, but I somewhat disagree with the underlying premise...
KG was the Celtics’ leading fourth-quarter scorer in the 2008 playoffs. I don’t think it’s fair to suggest that he repeatedly disappeared.
Looking at the close games we played in the 2008 playoffs:
- In Game 3 against Atlanta, he was tied as our leading scorer, and was our leading rebounder, in the fourth quarter. He was 3-for-3 in the fourth.
- In Game 4 against Atlanta, he was tied as our leading scorer, and was our leading rebounder, in the fourth quarter
- In Game 6 against Atlanta, he was our leading scorer and leading rebounder in the fourth quarter
- In Game 1 against Cleveland, he was tied as our leading fourth quarter scorer
- In Game 5 against Cleveland, he was our second leading scorer (with 6 points), and was our leading rebounder (with 8) in the fourth quarter
- In Game 6 against Cleveland, he was tied as our leading fourth quarter scorer
- In Game 7 against Cleveland, he was our third leading fourth quarter scorer, behind great efforts from Paul Pierce and P.J. Brown
- In Game 1 against Detroit, KG was the second leading scorer and best rebounder in the fourth
- In Game 2 against Detroit, KG was the second leading scorer and best rebounder in the fourth
- In Game 5 against Detroit, KG was the leading scorer (with 10 points) in the fourth
- In Game 6 against Detroit, KG was the second leading scorer (with 8 points) in the fourth
- In Game 1 against LA, KG was the second leading scorer and tied for the lead rebounder in the fourth
- In Game 2 against LA, KG was the second leading scorer (behind Powe) and led the team in rebounds in the fourth quarter
- In Game 3 against LA, KG was our leading scorer in the fourth
- In Game 4 against LA, KG was our leading scorer in the fourth, and tied for our leading rebounder
Only in Game 4 against Cleveland and Game 5 against LA was KG poo (and in the LA game, at least he had 7 fourth quarter rebounds). The idea that KG disappears in the fourth is a myth. Maybe the reputation was deserved in Minnesota, I have no idea. However, in our title run, KG was our best and most consistent player in the fourth quarter, by far.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
All stats from popcornmachine.net, by the way
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
How many of these 4th quarter pts came with under 5 minutes to go in the 4th in a close game?
scoring with 6+ minutes to go isnt exactly clutch, and when the game is on the line with under 5 to go…he has dissaperard the majority of his career offensively
Many of those 4th quarter points came with under 5 minutes to go in the 4th of a close game
82games.com has the “clutch” stats for the ‘08 playoffs, and they are more stark than you would expect…in KG’s favor. All stats per 48 minutes:
Pierce: 1.1/15 FG (7% shooting!), 23.6 FT made, 25.7 points
Allen: 5.6/16.8 FG (33% shooting), 7.8 FT made, 19 points
KG: 8.5/20 FG (43% shooting), 5.7 FT made, 22.8 points
Pierce was good at hitting late free throws, but when they needed a bucket late in close games KG was more often than not the one that was tapped and the one that made more of those shots.
Gawd that is beautiful.
I love it when a stat summary so eloquently and concisely describes three distinct styles of play.
Pierce bouncing like a pinball through the lane driving up through people, lobbing the ball wildly, but drawing the foul like an artist draws a smiley face.
Ray shooting the lower percentage, but higher return 3 pt bombs from distance (fewer shots, fewer FTs, but comparable points).
KG in closer to the hoop, shooting over people.
KG’s style is high percentage – definitely the preferred option except when the other team is somehow able to deny him the paint or you need the play to execute quickly (posting up is a bit less time-efficient than the three-point bomb or the slash).
The Big 3 really are complementary pieces.
Thanks
Good stats.
No, I’ve always thought it was a myth, although it is definitely a reputation he still has amongst a wide section of (non-Celtics) NBA fans.
Discussing this sudden rash of “unexpected” clutch play and then reaching the conclusion that, hey, maybe he was always clutch and that aspect of his game has been underappreciated was the angle I was going for.
Good job, Bent
Loved …..
Is it possible that when he went in to get his wheel fixed, that they actually replaced his clutch too, without telling us?
I think the idea comes from his willingness to pass to others for game tying or game winning shots. It is viewed by some as a reluctance to take those shots.
and I guess it depends on how you define clutch. I’ve always thought any game tying and go-ahead shots were more critical (in the second half and and definitely in the 4th quarter) and thus more clutch, than shots made once the lead has been established. Ditto for shots in a comeback.
82games has their own measure, as well, which is…
4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more
than 5 points
You can widen or narrow that definition. but I’ve noticed KG coming through as well. I think he has it in him, though, until lately, when looking for a final shot it has been Paul or Ray who usually gets the call.
Getting close is different than getting the lead. There is a certain mind set required to steel or steady yourself for those shots.
I’m comfortable with KG shooting those and final second foul shots, as well.
good read.
KG has always been good in 4th quarters but not so much in the closing minutes. Stats for entire fourth quarters don’t tell the story. It does seem like a recent developement that he’s so confident with the game on the line.
KG has actually been very good in the closing minutes for a long time
I one-time compiled the 82games.com “clutch stats” for KG and Tim Duncan for every year since 2002-03 when the site started tracking it. Including the playoffs. Duncan is often referenced as one of the most clutch big men in the NBA, while KG has always been questioned. Their clutch stats are rock-solid point-blank identical. KG scores just as much, at just as high of efficiency as Duncan in crunchtime year-in and year-out…it’s just that nobody paid attention to results that counter a well-loved argument.
I remember the 2008 playoffs
and there was an article detailing KGs unclutchness (lol) and, as I recall the numbers didn’t belie the point but, I do agree that he’s been stellar so far this season.
"Do you know that nonbelievers create the most positive energy?" Davis said
KG is not the most clutch player in the league by any stretch of the imagination, but you also hear people say Dirk Nowitzki isnt clutch, so take it with a grain of salt
Dirk's clutch on one side of the court.
"Do you know that nonbelievers create the most positive energy?" Davis said
Charity Line
What about FT numbers in the closing minutes of the game? I know he’s missed some big FT in the past, and I think thats where this “tag” comes from…they might not have cost the game, but they’ve left the door open for the other team…
IF KG lacks clutchness on the O end, Ray and Pierce more than make up for it, and vise versa on the D end…GO CELTICS!
Nice article
Nice article
They say if you repeat something long enough and loud enough, it becomes true.
Often times, especially in the media (sports or no), one broadcaster will make a statement and because of the hype and the perception of evidence it gets repeated over and over. Labels get created, beliefs gets formed. Half the time, especially in sports media, I don’t think that broadcasters (radio, television, print, electronic media) believe even half of what comes out of their own mouths. The media coverage is less about true analyzation and more about entertainment value. This is what seems to have taken place with KG. Most of what sports casters say (except perhaps for the great moments with Charles Barkley where he just lets his mouth run away with the show) is scripted. Even the disagreements and differing opinions are scripted. I wouldn’t assign much credibility to anything a journalist, much less a sports journalist, had to say on any topic.
If you have Paul Pierce and Ray Allen on the wings, KG doesn’t need to be “clutch,” assuming he wasn’t already. I’m a big enough KG fan (his attitude on the court, his intensity, he respectful attitude toward Celtics past and present, his willingness to leave everything on the floor) that I will live with him taking any shot he thinks he can make and I’ll be fine, even if he misses.
I can't believe you posted this today
I swear to you, I friggin SWEAR that yesterday evening I spent about a half hour going back through 82games.com stats for the last few years to research KG’s clutchness as a Celtic. I was going to post the results today, in fact, so I had to laugh to myself when I saw your post, Bent.
As Roy and others pointed out above, your intuition that KG’s “lack of clutch” reputation is wildly overblown is in fact correct. There are reams of evidence for it at this point, but once a decision is made about someone by the media they don’t like to let facts get in the way of a good argument.
I might go ahead and make my post on the message board anyway, but thanks for your piece as it was a nice read.
Apologies - Comment longer than article...
Haha. Thanks, I’ll look out for it.
I agree that his reputation is largely unfounded, although the stats Roy provided above perhaps paint a slightly over-the-top favorable outlook…
I checked in more depth and got this:
Hawks –
Game 3 – FG with 9:49 to go and 2 more with the C’s down 14 (1:49) and down 9 in the last minute. Didn’t hit any “clutch” shots.
Game 4 – Consecutive hoops to pull within 4 in the last 3 minutes. Pretty clutch (this would be forgotten because they lost).
Game 6 – Cut lead to 5 with 2:46 to go. Cut lead to 2 with 8 seconds to go. As above, pretty clutch, albeit in vain.
Cavs –
Game 1 – Mentioned above, indisputably clutch
Game 5 – Only basket in last 8 minutes was a dunk with 4m to go to make it a 10 point lead. Stretching it to call that a clutch shot.
Game 6 – No baskets in last 6 minutes and C’s lose by 5. Not very clutch.
Game 7 – Hoops with 5:33 and 3:43 to go to increase lead back to 5. Again, pretty clutch, although forgotten due to PJ’s exploits.
Pistons -
Game 1 – Only basket in last six minutes made it an 8 point lead with 5:33 to go. Again, stretching it to call that clutch.
Game 2 – 3 hoops in the last six minutes: a lay-up to cut the lead to 3 with 5:41 to go, a jumper to cut the lead to 2 with 3:30 to go and another jumper to cut the lead to 4 with 2:04 to go. That was clutch, but again this would have been overlooked when they lost.
Game 5 – No field goals in the last nine minutes. Not very clutch.
Game 6 – One field goal in the last six minutes, a jumper to make the lead five with 3:39 to go.
Clutch shot, but already you can see, he’s not make as many clutch shots, or as clutch as he is over the last few weeks.
Lakers –
Game 1 – Only fourth quarter hoop was his awesome dunk to ice it with 1:31 to go. Prior to that, he’d missed nine shots in a row. He came up big there though, although they did win by 10. That’s was definitely huge though. (Raaaarrrrggghhh!)
Game 2 – No hoops in the last seven minutes, as the Lakers went on their big run. Not very clutch.
Game 3 – Cut the Laker lead to two with 2:41 to go. His only other basket was basically a garbage time dunk. One clutch shot there, though.
Game 4 – The short jumper mentioned in the article was his only basket in the last seven minutes, but was huge.
On balance, many of these performance certainly included clutch shots, although some did not. Of course, KG comes up in the clutch in other ways (getting to the line, rebounding and defense), so this is not an effort to disparage him. If you consider playing well in a big game to constitute clutch, then KG definitely exhibited this in 2008, practically carrying the Celtics in every series opener and game six against Cleveland (in vain) and the Lakers (amongst others).
Either way, KG over the last three weeks has been indisputably clutch (as I said in the article with more regularity that at any point since he arrived in Boston (and I think the above analysis proves that he has at least been making more important shots in the late stages of games than he did in the 2008 postseason.
The real "central premise" of this article is that, regardless of whether he is or has been clutch and the reasons behind that, he has unquestionably been coming up big over the last three weeks and we should celebrate that. I’m sure even Roy will agree with that.
Not a bad list, but a few disagreements
Not to nit-pick you as I love seeing this out here, but I’ve been following this pretty close for awhile and I have to argue with some of your conclusions. The biggest 2 are Pistons games, in which KG’s clutch play pretty much swung the series.
1) Pistons game 5, Garnett led all Celtics with 10 4th quarter points in a must-have game. You point out that he didn’t hit a field goal in the last 6 minutes, but you didn’t point out that he drew 2 shooting fouls in that time period and made all 4 free throws. Plus, he was intentionally fouled with 3 seconds left and the Celtics up only 2 points, and he drained both free throws. He was massively clutch that game.
2) Pistons game 6, Pistons were up by 10 points in the 4th quarter. Garnett and Pierce teamed up and went nuts, scoring 8 points each as part of a 21 – 6 run that ended with the Celtics up 5 with less than 3 minutes left of a game they eventually won by 8. KG was 3-for-3 from field and 2-for-2 from line during that huge 4th quarter run, again very clutch.
Thanks for the extra insight
Note – I was only investigating making clutch shots from the field. I acknowledged beneath the list that he gets to the line a lot.
Again, I’m not trying to shoot down KG’s reputation, just noting that the late game shots he has made of late have been more commonplace than at that time.
They don’t tend to look for him down the stretch, which explains some of the numbers above, although recently he has been getting looks for whatever reason and delivering. Long may it continue!
We're saying similar things
I’m definitely applauding you here, I’m just pointing out a few things for clarity because I don’t quite think your premise that this is a new thing holds up. As I pointed out higher in this thread, in the ’08 playoffs KG averaged 20 field goal attempts per 48 minutes in “crunctime”, more shot attempts than either Pierce or Allen late in games. Pierce had a higher scoring average in the clutch because he made more free throws, but if you want to ignore free throws and look purely at late game shots then KG was looked to heavily all the way back to ’08.
I explore this a bit further in the Clutch KG thread on the message board, but this is a fairly consistent phenomenon. Over his time in Boston KG is making about 2 more field goals per 48 minutes in “crunchtime” than either Pierce or Allen. Pierce and Allen both make a lot more free throws late and Pierce also is doing more creating off the dribble than either KG or Allen, but if you’re looking purely at late game shots then KG has been making more of them than any other Celtic for the whole time he’s been here.
so glad this isn't our problem - and it could've been!
Greg Oden hasn’t given up on returning this season, the injured Trail Blazers center told SI.com Thursday.
“I just want to get back,‘’ said Oden in his first public comments since he suffered a fractured left kneecap Dec. 5, resulting in recent surgery. "They say I’m out for the whole year, but my plan is to work really hard and you never know. Hopefully I don’t have to [be sidelined all season]. I’m hoping things are way ahead of schedule and I can come back at the end of the year.’’
While Oden is trying to return to the court as quickly as possible, agents Bill Duffy and Mike Conley are promising to oversee a thorough investigation to understand why the No. 1 pick of the 2007 draft has suffered two major knee injuries in three NBA seasons. Oden missed his entire rookie season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his right knee. Last year he sat out 14 games after suffering a bone chip in his left knee.
“Mike and I are going to do a thorough analysis of every aspect of Greg’s physiology,‘’ Duffy told SI.com Thursday. "That means there will be no stone unturned in terms of really understanding his body — the balance of his body, the symmetry of his body, the strength of his bones. Every aspect as relates to nutrition, DNA, muscle mass, everything we can study, we’re going to dig into at this point.’’
Duffy said he and Conley will seek out the best medical and training advice "around the world.’’
“He’s working hard and doing everything that he’s asked,‘’ said Duffy of Oden. "But we’re going to take it to the next level.’’
Oden, who was averaging 11.5 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks in 23.9 minutes this season, said he was in favor of a full physical review. "It’s something I’m aware of,‘’ he said. "We have some really good people here with nutrition and other [forms of support] in Portland. But it never hurts to look at another way of looking at things.’’
Oden has been uplifted by the support of fellow players as well as the Portland fans who stood and chanted his name while he was being treated on the court after suffering his latest injury. "I got a lot of people hitting me up and just saying, ‘Get well, big fella, it happens to the best of us,’‘’ said Oden. "It was nothing that anybody could foresee coming along. It was a freak accident so you have to keep your head up. It’s one of those things I can’t really control.
“I was hoping more than anything that I was going to have an injury-free season. I was starting to play well. But it happens.’’
Oden emphasized that his injuries haven’t deterred his hopes of fulfilling his potential as a player. For perspective he sees Blazers owner Paul Allen and assistant coach Maurice Lucas — both dealing with cancer — and he said their fight gives him strength. Coach Nate McMillan has also been dealing with a recently ruptured Achilles tendon.
“I’m not really thinking about it,‘’ said Oden of his long-term future. "My head has definitely been positive. Everything going on with me has been positive, and being around my teammates has helped me a lot. Knowing that a couple of my coaches and Mr. Allen are going through something a lot worse than what I’m going through definitely helps me get in check.’’
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk
Had Boston won the "Oden Sweepstakes" in 2007...
The collective angst in this town would be off the charts!
In certain ways, it would have exceeded the Len Bias nightmare.
well, i agree with your sentiment
but we should try not to compare Odom’s injuries to such a tragedy as another young man’s death. Not flaming, just suggesting.
Totally agree with how bizarrely different things might have turned out if we had gotten a higher pick. Danny really deserves kudos for transforming those lemons.
Haha...
I remember I was so ticked the Celtics only got the 5th pic in the draft. We couldn’t even get Durant, I was saying!
Good piece.
One thing I have noticed since he’s been back is that jump shot is money. I guess it’s always been good. but it looks like KG spent a lot of that rehab time shooting. It’s just lights out now. I have no stats to back that up it just looks better.
I agree - his motion looks so efficient and the arc is almost perfect.
I may be mis-remembering, but I always thought he had a very flat trajectory on his jump shot from 15 ft out. Now he seems to be putting almost a perfect arc on it.
Unrelated but – how about that 2/3 court shot that just missed beating the buzzer a few weeks ago? Wow. :-O
nice read
This was a very enjoyable read. Thanks.
Nick Gelso
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by North Station Sports on Dec 18, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions
AT-360
As a Timberwolves fan i have noticed this for a long time. In big games, Mr. GArnett plays big. Look at game 7 against the SAC Kings in the 2nd round of the 2004 playoffs. Look at those two consecutive 3-pointers he nailed in a regualr season game to propell the T-Wolves to a win. The only thing the KG doesn’t do is take over, like Kobe, or LeBron or Wade, or Pierce can late in ball games. Kevin Garnett seems to play the last 2 minutes of a ball game the same way he played the first 46. If you want to fault him, that is the only thing you can fault him for, he is an eagar passer in clutch moments, which is something most people wouldn’t expect from someone of his caliber and skill, i geuss LArry Bird and MIchael Jordan are to blame for that, right?
KG Clutch Continues...
Add two clutch free throws against Philly tonight but still not enough to get the W. ugh.
Nick Gelso
My Blog:
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Win a FREE Larry Bird Autograph plaque! Click the link below.
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by North Station Sports on Dec 18, 2009 10:10 PM EST reply actions

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