Could Rondo lead the league in assists someday?
by nickagneta on Feb 12, 2009 9:01 AM EST
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Rajon Rondo last night played against the best point guard on the planet last night. Or should I say outplayed the best point guard on the planet last night. Yeah, he didn't exactly have the shots going down and Paul was coming back from an injury and wan't 100%, but it is getting pretty clear to those that are paying attention that Rajon Rondo is playing at a level that is as high or higher than his competition whenever he battles one of the better point guards in the league mano a mano.
Rondo plays exceptional defense versus the best, scores efficiently, usually outrebounds them, sometimes by a very wide margin, causes as many turnovers as he has on his own, and lately, has shown that he is becoming one of the best passers and assist men in the league. Maybe even good enough to lead the league someday in assists.
Okay, stop laughing, I'm serious.
And the reason I am serious is because I think the progression in his game this year has been remarkable and will continue, especially as he gets more and more familiar with the intricacies of delivering the ball to his three Hall Of Famers where they like the ball the most. He already is getting at least one alley-oop to KG a game based on nothing more than a look to KG's eyes. He finds Ray Allen on the break in three point land at least two times a game. And he is constantly playing the 1-3 switch with Pierce to perfection for Pierce to be matched against a shorter, less physical PG at the foul line.
Add to that his ability to keep the dribble going while dribbling through the low post on drives and finding open men when defenses collapse and his excellent court vision on the break and when amongst the big boys and it easily explains why his assists per game are starting to take some monumental leaps forward. Here are Rajon's assist per game numbers for each month so far this year:
October: 6.0
November: 7.1
December: 8.3
January: 9.3
February: 10.3
I really am surprised that the meteoric rise in his assists per game has not been something that has been mentioned on the national scene or really even locally or here at Celticsblog. When was the last time that we've seen numbers of this type from a PG in recent Celtics history? When was the last time someone chosen as low as Rondo has had his assist numbers move up this quickly into the upper echelon of league leading assist numbers in one year?
Let's take a look at some of the league's best PGs and the NBA's assist leaders over the last 20 years and Rondo and see where they were drafted.
Rajon Rondo: 1st Rond #21
Jason Kidd: 1st round #2
Chris Paul: 1st Round #4
Deron Williams: 1st Round #3
Steve Nash: 1st Round #15
John Stockton: 1st Round #16
Andre Miller: 1st Round #8
Magic Johnson: 1st Round #1
Isiah Thomas: 1st Round #2
Gary Payton: 1st Round #2
The only guys that led the league in assists that were drafted lower than Rondo recently were Johnny Moore and Kevin Porter who were chosen in the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively. Other than that is you were one of the best PGs of your generation or led the league in assists, you were chosen amongst the 1st Round's top 20 players.
Rondo's assists per game and assists per 36 have both risen by over three assists so far this year. That's no small accomplishment. And his numbers continue to improve as over the last 4 games he is averaging 11.5 APG. He has broken into the top 5 in the league in assists as he is now tied for 5th place in the league with Jason Kidd at 8.4 per game.
I'm convinced Rondo will be in double digit numbers in assist per game in the years to come and will someday lead the league. He is still a little over a week short of his 23rd birthday and yet his game is growing by leeps and bounds. I think Rondo will eventually be a multiple time All-Star and look forward to seeing all of my predictions of him come true as, and I hate to brag about this but I just need to, so far all those predictions from two years ago have been right on the money.
Now just some more Rondo statistical love:
Rajon is ranked 9th in the league in PG PER at 18.74 but has been over 19.00 for a good part of the last couple of months.
Rajon is ranked 4th in the league in steals per game at 2.1.
Rajon is ranked 2nd in the league in PG rebounds per game at 5.2.
Rajon is ranked 2nd in the league in PG FG% at .499.
Rajon is 4th in the league in assists per 48 at 12.2.
Rajon is 5th in the league in assist to turnover ration at 3.15.
Rajon leads the league in games started as a PG at 54.
Rajon is second in the league in total assist at 451.
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
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Sure. CP3, D-Will, and Nash are the three in front of him in APG this year. Nash will keep slowing down (age, fewer minutes, Suns playing a slower pace and trading all of their finishers away). Rondo plays less than 33MPG, versus 37+ for CP3 and ~36 for D-WIll; Rondo’s minutes are likely to continue expanding, he should be 36-37 next year (especially if they don’t bring in another established vet to back him up).
Rondo’s got plenty of guys who can finish, and while he looks for his shot more than when he first came into the league, his bias is still (and will remain) to make the pass.
If New Orleans DOES make some significant, $$-driven changes to the squad, that might hurt CP3’s numbers. How many assists does he get on alley-oops to Chandler, for example?
Is it a given that Rondo’s going to lead the league? Of course not – but I think it’s entirely possible that by this time next year, we’ll be talking about the young, elite PGs as expanding beyond CP3 and D-Will to include Rondo. No reason that all three of those guys won’t be averaging 10-11 APG, whichever one lands on top likely representing who has the best finishers around them and who plays at the fastest pace.
by theBird on Feb 12, 2009 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rondo will be the main reason why the big 3 will extend their carreer’s toward their late 30’s..And why Boston’s window is not just 3-5 yrs but even more..he is such an exceptional pass first PG that when he start burying those elbow jumpers, he will be such a difficult player to guard…There will be some elite players out there post big 3 id bet who’d be willing to come to Boston and would consider playing for a contending team with a PG like Rondo.
by bopna on Feb 12, 2009 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good breakdown, Nick
Barring injury, Rondo will be a top-10 player in the next 3 years, similar in impact to Chris Paul. I think he’ll eventually become a 35-40% 3 point shooter, 80% foul shooter, and strong enough to guard most 2 guards. He’s so young right now and it’s unreal the amount his game has improved in the last 3 years.
BTW, I think he’ll lead the league in assists when we get to the point that every game we run the offense through him. There are still nights when the opposing team (like the Knicks) uses a defense which causes Rondo to get hesitant and timid and then the ball runs through Paul or KG. If he can get just a little more solid on his jumper and floater in the lane, I think we’ll get to the point when the ball’s always in Rondo’s hands and at that point, nobody in the league will get as many assists….
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Feb 12, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hope not
He’d need to be extremely ball-dominant. I don’t think that would be good for the C’s. It’s also a brand of basketball I personally dislike, from a stylistic POV.
An interesting question.
by cordobes on Feb 13, 2009 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I imagine he might do it next year
plus he is bound to lead the league in rebounds;>)
by wahz on Feb 13, 2009 7:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rondo has a realistic shot at it down the road.
I think as long he’s playing on loaded teams like this, where he needs to allow other players to make plays for themselves, he’s unlikely to do so though. So it’s on hold for now, but he’ll definitely have a shot at doing that some day.
by Who on Feb 13, 2009 7:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes he could, IF...
Rondo could lead in assists IF, he developed a reliable jump shot. he already has no trouble getting the hoop. and call me crazy, but i think he will attract double teams once he can shoot. he will then have no trouble getting 10+ assists a game
by celtics111 on Feb 16, 2009 7:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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