Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths

by Big Ticket on Feb 7, 2009 2:53 PM EST

Got to hand it to Rolan Beech of 82games.com. I completely agree with most intelligent fans - stats cannot tell you who the best player is, who the best defender is, or even who the best team is. Some things just come down to watching the game and getting that feeling in your gut. Even then, the chances of everybody agreeing on these topics is is about as good as Perkins nailing a game winning 3 pointer.

But some things can be proven with stats. One of those, is shooting ability on game winners. Here, Roland Beech studies game winning shots from the past 5 full regular seasons and playoffs, plus this year so far. His most noticeable findings? Ray Allen is clutch. Like, really clutch. And Kobe Bryant.... well.... isn't.

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

Some excerpts:

Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.

Way to go Ray...

Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange 2pt FG%).

Keep shooting Kobe...

...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots!

42 - Kobe
35 - Vince Carter
33 - Joe Johnson, LeBron
32 - Crawford
31 - Billups

Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56 FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem?

Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.

Tweet Comment 6 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

But its when he does make them that his legions of fans and even the announcers make a bigger deal out of it then if anyone else did it… But I gotta give him credit for not being afraid to fail, I cant stand him but hes not afraid to miss the last shot

by TheAncientRivalry on Feb 7, 2009 3:28 PM EST reply actions

Low %

One of the reasons for Kobe’s low FG % in game winning situation may be because he takes so many GW attempts. His 1 assist despite having the ball in his hand in so many GW situations shows that he is looking to shoot. While this is what many look for in their best player, it is important to note that this data is probably available to other teams. So, its safe to say that the defense knows Kobe is taking every GW shot. That makes his GW shots easy to guard and probably plays a part in his low %. Kobe might be able to increase his productivity at the end of games by looking to make the right play more often. Who knows, he may have hit more game winners had he attempted less.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Feb 7, 2009 4:12 PM EST reply actions

Exactly

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. The fact he WANTS to shoot (and his teammates let him) speaks louder than his percentage. Just ask Larry or Michael.

God bless and good night!

by BrickJames on Feb 7, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

No, ask Allen Iverson instead

He’s the one who agrees with that “any shot you don’t take is a shot you miss”. Kobe is the AI of thc clutch.

by cordobes on Feb 8, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Player Fgm Fga Fg% Ftm Fta Ast T/O
NBA 45 159 .283 28 37 17 19
Kobe Bryant 4 8 .500 0 0 0 0
LeBron James 4 8 .500 0 1 1 0
Dirk Nowitzki 3 6 .500 6 8 1 1
Caron Butler 2 3 .667 0 0 0 0
Gilbert Arenas 2 5 .400 3 3 0 0
Tim Duncan 2 6 .333 0 0 1 0
Manu Ginobili 2 6 .333 1 2 2 1
Chauncey Billups 2 9 .222 2 2 0 0

Kobe and James are pretty even in the playoff winning shots. One thing I don’t think shows up in the data well is the assists. Under the triangle offense, the ball gets pasted alot. I don’t believe Kobe has gotten the full credit on assists. Just in the celtics game at the end of OT, Kobe pasted the ball to Odom, then to Gasol for the dunk. That was pretty clutch there but it won’t show up as a Kobe assist.

by ninjabastard on Feb 8, 2009 2:13 AM EST reply actions