Is 2nd Place That Bad?
by Jeff Clark on Mar 9, 2009 10:21 AM EDT
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The Celtics showed this week that they can beat Cleveland short handed and they can almost beat the Magic even shorter handed. The thing is, if we lose any more hands, we'll find out what the sound of one hand clapping sounds like.
Right now we are missing 5 of the team's top 12 players, including two critical starters (KG and Rondo). Thankfully the injuries are (hopefully) the short term variety where we can expect to get the majority of the players back in time for the playoffs. But for the regular season, that's a lot of injuries to overcome to get the top spot.
Clearly the team can rise to the occasion for some inspired play for stretches at a time, but you have to wonder about the consequences of doing so. To keep pace and push for home court advanatge right now would require putting even more burden on the shoulders of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. The role players (specifically our bigs) played a huge part in the victory over the Cavs, but we can't count on that production game in and game out. Pierce has already started wondering out loud how he's going to get more rest and I wouldn't want to put too many extra miles on Ray's legs either.
I don't think the primary goal should be to win homecourt advantage anymore. It would be nice, and in an ideal world I'd love to have it. If LeBron and company falter down the stretch, I'd be all for taking advantage and stealing it away from them (especially once we get healthy). However, the cost of pushing for the best record (in terms of wear and tear on Pierce and Allen) might offset any gains of playing a few more games at home.
The primary goals should be as follows:
- Make sure everyone has all the time, rest, and rehab it takes to come back fully healthy. When in doubt, play it safe and give extra rest.
- Manage the minutes of the veterans - in particular Paul and Ray.
- Work on getting new players more comfortable with the system and make sure the team feels comfortable with the new players.
- Try not to fall to 3rd place in standings.
- If 1st place is in reach and the team is back to near-full-strength, then go for it.
Getting healthy should speak for itself. Getting the new guys minutes seems pretty obvious too. Managing the minutes of Paul and Ray might be a little more difficult for Doc. That may mean he has to bite the bullet and play Walker and Giddens (CSL reports that they were at the scorer's table yesterday but never made it in). They probably aren't 100% ready, but at some point you have to roll the dice and throw them out there.
Doc is clearly in a tough situation because his coaching instinct is to always try to win the game in front of him. But now he has to consider a myriad of other possible consequences and variables when making substitutions during the game.
Doc even admits that he's confilcted. See this quote about the decision to start Marbury over House.
Rivers actually questioned himself for starting Stephon Marbury at point guard over Eddie House, saying that his instinct was to start House (despite a lesser ability to handle the ball) because House had better command of the Boston offense. He ultimately chose Marbury because the Celtics need to get Marbury involved and opportunities of the like may be hard to come by.
Giving Marbury minutes with the starting unit is good for him in the long term but bad for the team in the short term. Maybe it would have been a better idea to start that experiment against a lesser opponent. After all, the Magic aren't that far behind and slipping to 3rd place is probably something we'd like to avoid if at all possible. But these are the kinds of tough decisions that Doc has to make every night.
For an added layer you have to wonder how House feels about being jumped in the PG rotation, especially after feeling slighted last year when Cassell was brought in for the same purpose. Not saying that is a big issue, but just another reason why Doc has to communicate well and make sure everyone is on the same page.
Anyway, I wanted to make a few points about finishing in second place in the East. First of all, 2nd place means likely having to face the Magic in the 2nd round. On paper that looks bad because they have the 3rd best record and they just beat us. But looking at the playoff brackets right now, is the 2nd round going to be that much easier for the 1st seed? If the playoffs started this week and assuming the top seed wins the first round series, they'd have to play the winner of the Hawks vs. Heat series. We all know how tough the Hawks could be and does anyone really want to face a motivated Wade in the playoffs?
Besides, I think we match up very well with the Magic. On any given night, when their jumpers are falling, they can beat anyone. But few teams defend Howard better than a healthy Celtics team. Perkins can body him up physically, KG is perhaps the best help defender on Earth, and Baby can at least use his center of gravity to push the guy away from the basket. Consider that Howard is averaging 20 points and 14 rebounds agaisnt the rest of the league and in 3 games vs. the Celtics is only averaging 14 and 10. Maybe this is a stretch, but I also find it helpful that we have Howard's old tutor (Clifford Ray) coaching up our big men.
My last point is that the Celtics should (should being the key word) have an easier time in the first round this year. Instead of the rising Hawks, we are likely going to see someone like the Sixers or Bulls, neither of whom can boast even a .500 record right now. In theory, we should be able to get our players healthy for the last few weeks of the season and really get tuned up in the first round. Hopefully by the time we reach the 2nd round we'll find our groove and keep on rolling to Banner 18. That's the plan at least.
First place would clearly be the ideal situation (provided it didn't leave us broken down and unfit to start the playoffs). We all know what happened last year and we've all heard the stat that the last 15 games against the Cavs have been won by the home team. Still, I think we can beat the Cavs in a 7 game series no matter where we play and I like our chances against anyone in the league if we get back to near-full-strength. Getting our guys ready for the playoffs is the most important thing. Let the seeds and home court stuff work itself out.
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I agree with the priorities...
Home court is very important, but getting healthy and not driving Paul and Ray into the ground are more so.
I’m not looking forward to going through Orlando (they won the season series last year), and I’m not that scared of the Hawks right now, especially with Josh Smith acting like a headcase. I think there’s a lot of rationalizing being done when people argue that they’d prefer to be #2, which I’ve seen in the forums. No, the #1 seed definitely has an easier path to the Finals, even discounting HCA.
However, Cleveland definitely has the inside track to the top seed, and our roster is banged up. We can’t take a win at all costs approach, which will only act to our detriment when we’re playing teams that are healthier and better rested.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
yeah
I didn’t lay out the counter argument that well – I wouldn’t “prefer” to meet the Magic, but I don’t think it is a horrible fate either
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Well said Roy
Nothing’s more important than having a healthy team come playoff time. Doc needs to remember the big picture (or have Danny remind him, like he did last week after the SA game) and use this time of injury as a positive (minutes for Walker to see if he can be an asset come playoff time) and not another potential negative (such as running Ray/Paul into the ground). Doc is coaching with blinders on right now and I think it shows a lack of championship confidence in his own team—Doc’s ready to run Paul and Ray into the ground for a shot at the HCA, instead of having the inner confidence to believe that as long as his team is healthy they’ll be fine come playoff time. And that lack of confidence might spread to the players if he’s not careful.
I’m not ready to concede the #1 to Cleveland at this point and I doubt Orlando has enough to overtake us for the #2 seed. We’ll need to gut out the next week to 2 weeks until KG/Rondo are back…but I think we can.
Sure, #1 would be great, and #2 is better than #3, but overall I think we’ll be able overcome the challenges we need to overcome. Last season, we didn’t win on the road in the playoffs until we NEEDED to win. I assume that if we don’t have HCA this time around, we’ll do the same thing, winning on the road when we NEED to win. If Cleveland gets HCA and we meet them in the ECF, I’m pretty sure we’ll take one of the 1st two games simply because we need to….
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Mar 9, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
1. orlando right now would have the pistons in round one. The magic struggle big time with them. i also expect them to lose at Detroit tonight.
2. The Magic don’t scare me at all. They shoot the 3 but in the playoffs that will not be enough. With all of Boston’s pieces healthy…I think they beat the Magic in 5
3. HC…i certainly believe the Cavs need it a lot more than Boston does. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston win in Cleveland in April or then again in the playoffs. Cleveland paper quoted LBJ as saying after the heat game he was very tired.
4. Injuries…I don’t think Rondo is hurt much and expect him Wed. vs Heat. I expect KG to be back by the game with Chicago at the latest giving them several weeks to get back into the groove before the playoffs
5. reading all the ESPN guys that were there yesterday…they all came away impressed with the way boston played in the second half minus 5 key guys. i just don’t think neither orlando or the Cavs can play the physical playoff basketball inside that they will need to to beat boston
Good points...
…about how we’d do vs Howard in playoffs. The guy that gives me the willies is Turkoglu. The guy is money from outside.
I hope Doc chooses to sacrifice short term (making himself sit Paul and Ray) for the long term (healthy, cohesive playoff team). I do think he sat Leon too long before giving him minutes and he never really gave O’Bryant a chance to fail/succeed. Of course he sees the bench in an up close way that I don’t , but our guys are starting to drop and fatigue contributes to injuries, I’d give minutes to Walker and/or Giddens.
As for Marbury/Pruitt, Pruitt may be in the long line of Orien Greenes etc. He may be a Gerald Henderson too but Marbury – de-rusted – could be a difference maker in playoffs. He was terrible yesterday but I’d force feed him those minutes. Eddie will be fine. He has to know that he’s better at the spot up 2.
i hear all this talk about being tired and fatigue and I agree a little..but I think this team will play a higher level no matter what come playoff time. the schedule helps down the stretch like today and tomorrow having no games…if ray allen is tired…i would like to see him play at a high level…he is just working right now…pierce is a gamer….but i like the way the schedule opens up a bit right now…toughest games remaining in march will be at SA, at Atlanta and at Orlando…I fully expect boston will have everyone back and close to 100 percent except Scal and Tony for those 3 games…
I will be fine with 2nd place
but I just hope the C’s won’t fall to the third spot. The Magic is just one game behind Boston and they are pretty good these days. The injuries will be crucial during the next days, the C’s play some very winnable games but without key players they can turn into consecutives losses…
It would be nice to see Paul and Ray get some big rest, like by not playing at all some easy games, as Doc did with them last year but with the way he’s been playing them this season, it’s hard to believe he will do it again.
Celtics Fan from France, I hope you'll excuse my bad english!
Yes It Is That Bad
Sorry to be a pessemist, but yes, it is that bad. Losing home court advantage is a big deal, because it makes it that much easier for the zebras to take games away from the Celtics. Also, second place means that the Celtics have to go through both Orlando and Cleveland to get to the finals.
But you might as well resign yourselves to it, because barring a catastrophic injury to LeBron James, there is no way the Celtics can catch Cleveland at this point. In fact, I expect the losses to pile up until Rondo returns, and third place is a very real possibility.
Priorities
I agree that the road to the finals won´t be much harder if we get the #2 seed.
But what happens when we´re there?
I definitly rather have the #1 than the #2 seed. They don´t hang banners for finals appearances.
That said, you have to set priorities, and I agree 100% that resting Paul and Ray now should be our top priority. I don´t want to see them rest two weeks before the playoffs start, like last year.
That was the main reason for our problems in last year´s playoffs, imo, the team looked out of sync. If you want your guys rested for the Playoffs, you have to rest them in the middle of the season, not at the end.
It's pretty bad
More important than HCA, it would be to have the Cavs and the Magic playing each other in the 2nd round. Although they aren’t as strong without Nelson, I think there’s a good chance Orlando takes out LeBron.
The difference from Orlando to the 4th seed, be it Atlanta or Miami, is quite big. Orlando doesn’t’ depend on jumpers that much; in fact, their opponents shoot more jumpers than they do. A team like Cleveland relies more on jumpshots than Orlando. They take a lot of triples, but that’s smart, because they can hit them.
Falling to the 3rd place would be quite scary. A run of Detroit, plus Orlando, Cleveland a nd Lakers without HCA doesn’t look good.
I Don't Think It's About The Seed
When the Celtics made the comeback yesterday either Mike or Tommy remarked about the reaction of the Celtic bench. They were on their feet and cheering on their team. One remarked that the young and new guys are being shown what Celtic basketball is all about. The argument seems to be it’s more important to rest players than to get the top seed. I think it’s more important to fight to win every game. There are days off during the rest of the season and there are some days off between the regular season and playoffs. If they are rested, once you start to play hard again, the results gained from rest dissipate quickly. I really don’t know how much rest is required to get these guys ready for the playoffs. I do know it’s important to be peaking and playing your best basketball before the playoffs. We can take the route to limit Pierce and Ray and Perk and let the other guys play. But Pruitt has shown he’s not ready and Giddens and Walker are not ready for the playoffs. Playing these guys will not make us better for the playoffs. Marbury and Moore do need to play, but playing them with other than front line players will not help them get into the groove they need to be in. We got hit with some bad luck in regard to injuries. I say attitude is more important than rest and the atitude needs to be a winning one.
"I don't come to play, I come to WIN"--Larry Bird
remember the cavs-magic have to play each other twice still…there is a lot of basketball to be played but i would rather see orlando in round 2 than atlanta
by celticinorlando on Mar 9, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions
Seed is important but we can't get it
I think that it is obvious that without KG we are a good team at best. We are 5-3 without him in there. Sure we get up for big games at home but he is only 1 starter. The Cavs were without 2 starters for 18 games and still have the record they do. I don’t think we can catch them. I am not sure that Mikkie Moore and Marbury will be enough for our bench. Sure we need to rest Pierce and Allen but not enough to let us slip to #3.
I think we will have a tough go if we have to go through Orlando then Cleveland. You know how good LBJ can be in the playoffs.
Debating as to whether or not your a Celtics fan or a troll. I’ve never seen someone roll over like this before.
Without KG a good team at best? We just beat Cleveland without KG, what would you call them? Worse than good?
A ‘tough go if we have to go through Orlando’? Have you not watched the season series between us and Orlando? We’re without a better team than them on our court and on theirs. No debate.
How good LBJ can be in the playoffs? Did you not see last year when we took him off his game? Been good in the playoffs? Obviously not good enough to win a championship yet, which is what we did.
While I don't necessarily agree with Cwhin,
your comments about James are off base. Just because we had a better team across the board than he did a season ago shouldn’t discount just how dangerous he was and has been. This is a guy who dragged a team to the Finals on his back two seasons ago – and came terrifyingly close to an effort just gargantuan enough to take us down in Game 7 at home last year.
He has only continued to improve, and the group around him is much better.
-sw
Manuel Aristides Ramirez is the greatest hitter I've ever seen.
by Steve Weinman on Mar 9, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Magic?
Call me crazy but…as bad as Detroit’s record is right now, I still don’t think Orlando can get past them after getting beat by them several times in the playoffs over the past few years.
Doc's misdiagnosis
Starting Marbury against his intuition to start House proved to be a mistake but Doc has hopefully learned not to ignore such intuitions in the future. To dismiss Eddie House as a starter in a less important game is understandable; Marbury does need practice with the starters. But House knows the plays, the guys & he has seniority — why risk Eddie’s positive attitude by starting Marbury when, by Doc’s pre-game admission, Marbury only knew THREE plays? And he just joined the team! It’s obvious that Marbury intends to play his best and he’s happy to be on the Celtics, but why make choices that compromise our chances for home court advantage since it proved to be so important last year? The Celtics almost pulled it out yesterday, but I think they could have won with the same effort if House had started the game.
Ainge's Misdiagnosis
The will continue to lose until both Ainge and Rivers admit that the Marbury experiment is a failure. They’ll simply run out of excuses. The losing may continue beyond that, but at least they’ll have a fighting chance to win some games without that turkey.
Starting House in Rondo’s absence isn’t enough.
I still think
that it’s too early to gage whether or not the Marbury experiment was a failure. He’s had one week and one practice to learn the system. Granted, he’s a professional and should be picking things up quicker, but he hasn’t played for a while and the Celtics have a particular system. I honestly won’t evaluate his time hear until after the season and post season are over. Hopefully, it ends in a championship.
You kiss my sister then!!!
You’re never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you’re never as bad as they say when you lose. ……….Lou Holtz
We will be fine.
Is it Soup Yet?
Orlando is a better team than people give them credit for...
I’d rather Cleveland have to play them than us. But, a lot of you are going to get what you’re asking for, so I hope you’re right.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Its not that we shouldn't keep trying to beat Cle but since Orlando will be short handed, 2nd isn't as bas as it looked two months ago
Doc should try to win every game, but not by playing pp for 48 minutes for heavens sake.40? maybe.
Frankly, Id take the risk of bring TA back early even with the hand not fully better. Don’t pass him the ball, tell him to use his feet on defense, set picks on offense. He’d learn something from the experience. Not kidding either.
If we can get everyone back from the final Cle game that would be a statement game for us, and we could snatch hca back
The coach has to instill the us against the world mentaliity. I think Doc is trying to do that, he is arguing with the zebras way more. We are really earning this one this year. I am, hopeful that we will paek in the playoffs and have a really hard core attitude. Sweep everybody and no let ups.
The counter arguement is losing breeds losing. Its creeps into the mentality. Its ok to lose this one oh its ok to lose that one
its ok to high five the kid in the cle jersey, its ok to say nice things about LA. No, its not. We need to win
added a new poll
this could be an interesting result
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Looking at our and ORL schedule it is very likely that we finish 3rd and not 2nd…
In the end I don`t think it matters. We are much better than the magic and we can also win in CLE…
I just want Doc to rest PP and Ray…but I guess that would be too much. It looks like Doc wants to burn them out…
We're so much better than the Magic...
… that you expect them to finish with a better record than us. I don’t know… I don’t look forward to playing three straight road series to win the Finals.
I think we’ll hold off Orlando. I don’t look forward to being the #2 seed, but it beats the alternative.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
celts need #1
To me, it’s not whether we play orlando or another team, its having home court advantage!!
does anyone forget how important home court advantage was for us last year?
Has anyone seen Clevelands home record? If we want a shot at beating Cleveland, I honestly believe that we will need to have the #1 seed.
This team could not win well on the road in the playoffs last season, and I’m not sure if they will this season either.
The Q
is very overpowering for a ref. I attribute a lot of the crowds ability to demand home cooking and Lebron’s pull to their home record. This playoffs will be no different, especially with the way the officiating has been this season. I’m more afraid of what the officials would do than what Lebron would do to us in the playoffs.
orlando won’t catch boston…in fact orlando will lose tonight in detroit. not concerned about magic…mosre concerned with boston bringing it and getting healthy
by celticinorlando on Mar 9, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
You must be high
to want to play orlando/detroit over atlanta/miami
what does third place do for us? we could easily lose several games in a row here with all the injuries we have and fatigue setting in. I haven’t checked the standings but I don’t see us finishing worse than 3rd in the east. that would mean we play the 5th team which might be a team like miami or atlanta. I would do most anything to avoid atlanta in the first round
Second Place?...Try Third Place.
Winning a game at home (Against the Cavs) and almost winning a game at home (Against the Magic), shouldn’t give the Celtics a lot of solace. Rather, I would look at the way the Celtics have played away from home, even when everyone was healthy. Try not to forget that the Celtics starters were on the bench during the fourth quarter, the last time Boston played in Cleveland, and it wasn’t because they were ahead. Home court advantage was critical to the Celtic Championship last year, and to think that Boston can win two, if not three playoff series, when they do not have home court advantage, is extremely optimistic.
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