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Plan B

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The original thought was to ease Garnett back into the rotation little by little and if his knee responded well, to get him up to speed in time for the playoffs.  His latest setback pushes that timetable back.  Now we are just hoping to get him back at all in time for the playoffs. 

But what then?  How much can we reasonably expect from him once he does get back?  How rusty will he be after all that time off?  He's KG and he already showed he can give us a lot at less than full speed, but he's still human.

So Tony Mejia asks a natural question.

Can the Celtics get through a first-round series without him?

That answer, since they're a championship-level team, is yes.

He goes on to outline a potential timeline:

Taking the timeline of his projected return into account, he'll be eased into games late in the regular season, should be limited for that first playoff week or so to the cause likely just be rounding into shape late in that first round, working off the rust.

It is an interesting question to ponder.  We are staring at the very real possibility that Garnett will not be "100%" against whomever we face in the first round.  A prospect that even KG's teammates seems resigned to.  Everyone seems to be talking in percentage points (via the Herald):

  • Paul Pierce: "Kevin at 75 percent is as good as anyone in the league"
  • Kendrick Perkins: "You could tell (Garnett's) not 100 percent.  He has a bit of a limp."
  • Perkins again: "’ll take 60 percent of KG rather than none in the playoffs"

The good news is that the reports indicate there has been no ligament damage.  So from what I've read, that leaves a very good chance of recovery. The bad news is that there may be "a strained tendon" and "loose cartilage."   I'm no doctor and even if I was, I wouldn't have access to KG's knee.  So I haven't a clue what we can make of all of this.

I can't tell you for sure if he'll be 100%, 75%, 60%, or 0% for the first round.  But I can say that the first round opponent means a little bit more than it did a few days ago.  As it stands now, Orlando is ahead of us in the standings and will face the 7 seed. 

Right now that means the Magic get the Pistons and the Celtics get the Sixers.  That could be a tremendous blessing in disguise.  Home court vs. the Magic (assuming they do advance) in the 2nd round would be nice, but right it is more important to have an easier road in the first round.

I could see the Magic and Pistons duke it out in a hard fought first round, leaving the victor tired and weary for the next round.  Like Mejia, I have a lot of confidence we can beat the Sixers even without KG at all.  I'm a lot less confident if we have to face the battle tested Pistons in the first round.  So I'll be rooting for the Sixers to beat the Pistons when they face each other on Saturday in a key game for deciding the seeds.

Poll
Can we win a first round playoff series without a full-speed Kevin Garnett?
Yes, against anyone
1001 votes
Only against the Sixers
142 votes
No
53 votes

1196 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 32 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Home court vs. the Magic (or whomever advanced) in the 2nd round would be nice

I assume that if the Pistons win in the scenario described, we would have home court advantage against them in the second round, yes?

by MattD on Apr 1, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions  

good point

thanks, I’ll fix

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Apr 1, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

And there I was...

… hoping all of the KG issues were some lame april fools joke.

- Dirk

by Kiorrik on Apr 1, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions  

I voted "yes, against any one"...

… but I’d prefer not to face Detroit or especially the Heat without KG (and possibly Powe).

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 1, 2009 8:59 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't understand

why we’re stilling putting a timetable on Garnett’s recovery/return.

He was supposed to come back after a month of rest. That didn’t work out. Now, everyone’s speculating that ‘alright, we won’t have him for the regular season and he may or may not show up for the first round, etc.’ Or ’it’s only a minor injury, should heal within x amount of time before the playoffs’ Whatever.

I’d figure after all of these setbacks that people would concede the fact that Garnett will not be ‘100%’ for the playoffs. You don’t instantly recover after two weeks — it takes time for you to get your game back, your confidence back, etc. People should know now to stop trying to be Robert Langdon and decipher the reports Ainge and Doc are coming out with. Just look at their faces and reactions. Look at the players’ faces when asked about the situation. It obviously doesn’t look good. Garnett’s phsyical absence will not only be a blow to the team production wise, but mentally as well. The team made the Garnett-less stretch figuring that he could come back soon and that all they needed to do was push through. That’s not the case anymore. If the team is going into the playoffs knowing Garnett physically isn’t able to give it his all and be at his best, then I’m not sure anyone else will be at their best either.

by BOSPORTS on Apr 1, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions  

I think most people have conceded

that he won’t be 100%

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Apr 1, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Garnett won't be 100% but...

I think we are underestimating what he is capable of doing when not 100% healthy. For me, we’ll have the same KG in the first round this year as the KG of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals (or maybe Finals). Garnett was not recovering from an injury last year but I think that, due to fatigue after two series of 7 games, he was about 70% or 80%, probably like all the other starters after all these hard fought games.

The Celtics can beat Philly without KG or with a non 100% KG, it’s obvious. Moreover they’ll play their best basketball to avoid a long series a la Atlanta last year. I’d rather see them face the Sixers than the Pistons, that’s for sure, and I feel pretty confident about Garnett’s productivity, even if not totally healthy, and even in limited minutes.

by Drucci on Apr 1, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

April Fools Note

Just a note about April Fools. Ironically enough, here’s what our rules (written many moons ago) say:

Posting misleading thread titles for the purpose of eliciting a negative reaction from Celtics fans (i.e., KG tore his ACL!!!) is inappropriate, and will result in an automatic suspension and/or ban. This rule will be relaxed from 12:00am until 12:00pm EST on April 1 of each year. On such date, each poster may make a maximum of one “April Fools” post.

Amazingly bad timing for this, so technically we don’t have anything in the rules against misleading people about KG today – but suffice it to say, we would be very, very, very upset if someone pulled that stunt.

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Apr 1, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Because of the current situation

I think we should refrain from prank posts. The surplus of injuries is a big enough joke. Albeit very unfunny ones.

by BOSPORTS on Apr 1, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, agreed here...

April Fool’s Day or not, posts about injured Celtics are just in bad taste.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 1, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

it may be miami at the #6 seed

miami is 39-35 (4-6 over their last 10, with 5 more road games), philly is 38-35 (6-4 over their last 10, with 5 more road games). so, it’s just as conceivable that the 6th seed will be miami.

there’s also room for movement between #7 and #8 with detroit, chicago, and charlotte (hanging on with a tough schedule). these things may not be settled until close to the end.

so, it may be a blessing if orlando has to deal with the pistons, but is it a blessing if the celtics have to face wade in the first round?

we may see this:

cavs / bobcats or bulls
magic / pistons
celts / heat
hawks / 76ers

i love how the magic would get the pistons. not so excited about the other matchups.

by csung on Apr 1, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions  

the shorter term point

is that if the pistons beat the sixers this weekend, it wouldn’t necessarily turn out to be a bad thing.

by csung on Apr 1, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

The real question is:

Will we repeat if KG is not 100%.

The answer: No way.

Whether we get out of the first round is completely irrelevelant, given the above.

by footey on Apr 1, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree

In general, given our current situation, making the argument of us repeating is a difficult one. I’m just hoping that health doesn’t become a continuous, debilitating issue during ‘The Big 3’ era that hinders our title chances . If so, it’s a great opportunity missed.

by BOSPORTS on Apr 1, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think that question is obvious

obviously if he’s not back up to speed in time for the 2nd round, our chances of repeating are almost nil

but none of us know if or when he’ll be back to full speed

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Apr 1, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I Fear Only One Team--With or Without Garnett

The Cleveland Cavaliers.

Oh, they might lose to Orlando without KG, but not if the Celtics play well.

by Brickowski on Apr 1, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions  

this is one tough team. and so is kg. no one is saying what potential damage can be done when or if he plays. that’s the big question. if it’s pain, pain indicates somethings broken. how big-how small?

by nazzbo on Apr 1, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

NO PROBLEM

Lots of smoke, no fire here as I am faithful 100%
KG will be impactful during the playoffs.

Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk

by mcpu40 on Apr 1, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

KG will not be 100%, and could be 0% at any time

As I wrote in my original post,. this floating body in his knee will not go away with rest, only with arthroscopic surgery. Had he had that when he first went down, he would be ok now, assuming nothing else is going on (which is not necessarily the case). (Note though that this diagnosis fits perfectly with the known facts — how he went down suddenly with no visible trauma or malrotation, plus the long recovery time, the ongoing problems, etc.)

So he will be less than 100% all the way. At any moment — and there is no way to know when — his knee could lock up or go into extreme pain mode, totally disabling him.

There’s another side to this. This is an opportunity for the Cs to do something that no one will ever forget. Win it all anyway. If they do that without (or only a partial) KG, but with heart, and determination, and their incomparable team D — it will be the stuff of legend, something we’ll be hearing and talking about for decades to come.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Window

if he goes down for good, get used to hearing a lot about our closing “window” because that’s all we’ll be talking about all offseason long

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Apr 1, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions  

In my minds eye, I can see them discussing it on PTI now. The ‘missing Posey and P.J.’ talks followed closely by ‘window of opportunity’ discussions.

by BOSPORTS on Apr 1, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

But only for this season

Unless you are talking about the larger window — which is already in the process of closing — KG should be 100% for next season, after the arthroscopy. That procedure for a loose body is not very traumatic and he should heal quickly and completely, assuming nothing more sinister is going on, which looks to be the case here.

If you meant the larger window, then yes, it’s closing for sure, and has been from day one. But then… that is true about everything.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

yes, the larger window is closing

at best we had 3-4 years to hope for
thankfully we cashed in during year 1
year 2 was supposed to be the year things gelled but we were lucky and the C’s moved that up a year
now year 2 is in doubt
who knows what year’s 3 and 4 will bring?

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Apr 1, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's sad now, but...

… as always in the human condition, we don’t know the future. Maybe this team will rise to the occasion and do something truly glorious. Maybe Leon and Baby will play their hearts out (don’t they always?), and Mikki will fight his stone hands and fly, and Steph will dazzle us, and Ray and Eddie will rain 3s, and Perk will block all the key shots, and Paul will save the day in crunch time.

This is adversity with a capital A. The monster has arrived and she is roaring at us. I think our boys will rise. I think they will fight the good fight, hobbled as they are, and they could well prevail. If they do, they will have created legend.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I couldn't resist...

 - A basketball player is just a man lost in the scramble for his own gratification. He can be destroyed, or locked up. But if you make yourself more than just a man, if you devote yourself to an ideal, and if they can’t stop you, then you become something else entirely.

- Which is?

- A legend, Mr. Pierce.

by BOSPORTS on Apr 1, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

As Paul wrote...

“Have no fear 34 is still here”

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bad news

I’m not shocked, as I called it at the moment it was announced he’d be out for 2 weeks; go check that initial post and you’ll find my scepticism in the comments there. The rule is to never take what Ainge says about this kind stuff seriously. I don’t think it’s exactly loose cartilage either; if so, we’d been facing a gross misdiagnosis. Anyway, the muscle strain announcement was used as an expedient to cover something else – probably some tear that was already there before the Utah game.

I’m still optimistic though, cortisone shots were a heckuva invention.

by cordobes on Apr 1, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Hmm

I don’t see that big of a difference between Philly and Detroit. Without KG it will be very though for us to stop the 76ers offence, with all the running and penetration. And why are you assuming we’ll finish 3rd? I hope we keep fighting for the 2nd seed, that’s important.

by cordobes on Apr 1, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Window

I don’t care if the window is closing. This is still better than being in the lottery year after year after year!!

by celty86 on Apr 1, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions  

even before the injury...he was never 100% anyway...

he had some little problem on that knee for quite a while and everyone in the league plays hurt anyway.. assuming we have the 3rd seed locked up the remaining games are meaningless and kg may as well have some rest for the real thing

speaking of rustiness.. his offence may be rusty but we really need him on the defensive end which in theory takes mostly effort and it shouldnt be too bad for him when he comes back

by hiro on Apr 1, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd love nothing more than to de-throne the champs.

Hopefully we (Sixers) manage to get the fifth seed though. If not, see you in the first round.

by Jordan Sams on Apr 1, 2009 11:48 PM EDT reply actions  

If tonight's game against Charlotte taught anyone anything, it's that one can never count the Celtics out

(Well, duh).

But no, Boston’s an elite team and can get by, even without KG. At worst, they’d require an extra game in the first round.

by Evan Dunlap on Apr 2, 2009 12:25 AM EDT reply actions  

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