It Doesn't Matter
We've got a few days off to ponder the bigger picture, so I did some pondering this morning. We've got 9 days left in the regular season and the team will play 5 more games. I'm here to tell you that none of those games matter.
I'm sure we'll find things to talk about. We can observe how the new players are getting acclimated to the team. We can continue the daily KG watch. We can watch the scoreboards to see who we'll be beating in the first round. But the results of the games just won't mean that much in the grand scheme.
With my pulse on the veins of Celtic Nation, I feel like I can speak for the majority of fans when I say that we hold the following truths to be self evident:
- We will beat any of the bottom 4 seeds in the first round, with or without KG.
- With a healthy KG, we can beat Orlando without home court advantage.
- If we don't have KG back by the Easter Conference Finals (ECF), we won't be repeating (barring a miracle).
By my reasoning, the biggest question mark ahead of us if what chances we have against the Magic in the 2nd round if we don't have home court and we don't have KG. Seems like it might be a tight series. It also would very likely be an exercise in futility.
If KG can't come back by the 2nd round, how effective would he be in the ECF? If he's not at full speed by that time, what chance would we have in the Finals if (by some miracle) we got past LeBron and the Cavs? Therefore, I submit that winning homecourt advantage in the 2nd round is a somewhat moot point, given our current situation.
Now I don't have any new information on KG, so please don't read too much into this. I have every hope that he'll be back for the playoffs and I'm reasonbly confident that he'll be able to give us near his max production for most of the playoffs. But you just never know with things like this.
The results of the next 5 games will not change anything in my mind. But that doens't mean they aren't worth watching.
We'll play the Heat and Sixers in that time frame. Either could be our first round opponent and a little last minute scouting can't hurt. We'll play the Cavs in Cleveland and it would be nice to knock them off thier home court perch to prevent them from tying the 86 Celtics with a 40-1 record at home.
Not to mention the fact that we want these guys rolling once they reach the post season. We can't afford to coast into the playoffs and expect to get up to speed and readjust to having KG and Powe in the lineup. If possible, the team needs to continue the positive momentum they've generated before this break and be ready for the opening round.
Still, I can't see this team losing many home games to teams like the Nets, Heat, and Wizards. So the team should have adequate momentum headed into the first round. Which brings me back to the original point.
We'll have to use the first round to get the KG and Powe back in the flow. If we can't get Garnett back for the 2nd round (and thus likely the rest of the playoffs), home court won't matter all that much anyway.
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REVERSE JINX
They’’ll matter if someone else we need gets hurt playing foolish minutes.
Making declarations aout playoof victories with 9 days left in the regular season?
Reverse Jinx and good morning sir.
Is it Soup Yet?
by Master Po on Apr 6, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good morning to you as well
yeah, this is a hard time for a coach – how to balance “getting the guys ready” with “keeping them fresh and healthy for the playoffs” but that truth is universal for any team that has clinched a playoff spot
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
by Jeff Clark on Apr 6, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DOOM AND GLOOM already ?……..Me thinks we can still win with or without KG…my reasoning is based on the improved play of Rajon and Perk. I also think that we can take down the Cavs in perhaps 7 gruelling games. the recent play of Baby (who reminds me so much of Antoine Walker when he moves around the basket ..infact, Glenn has a better midrange game than Antoine ever had so Yeah, I feel more confident in the C’s ability right now.
Defensively we would suffer I know but it should challenge our coaching staff to try and compensate KG’s loss and his intensity, I still think we can somehow pull it of…Remember we still have PP and Ray who can neutralize Lebron’s production.( Last yr, Ray dissapeared in the series with Cleveland that is why it reached 7 games but this yr. if Ray can just muster a 15 pt ave in a series with the Cavs, we can get past them, book it.
by bopna on Apr 6, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd still prefer the #2 seed...
Staying healthy is most important, but I think potentially having home court in the second round is fairly important. I think Orlando is a significantly better team than they’re given credit for.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
by Roy_Hobbs on Apr 6, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree. People tend to gloss over the fact they’ve held 20 point leads or so in two games this year with the fact that the Celtics came back to make the games very close. Fact remains they still dominated the Cs at times. Part of it is definitely an ability to hit 3 pointers (which can come and go for even the best 3-shooting teams) but they do a good job of getting those. They also have an elite defense.
Hopefully @Houston can knock off Orlando on Tues (?), which would give us a cushion for that @CLE game.
by Berkcelt on Apr 6, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Nelson was healthy, I’d agree, but I think a Magic team sans Nelson is getting too much credit
by Who on Apr 6, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a big KG question for me...
If he’s not 100% healthy by the second round, should we bring him back at all? The post just a couple days ago talked about his total minutes in the NBA. If he’s not healthy enough to give us at least 90% KG, and we need at least that much to make a run at the title then is it worth it to bench him and get him rested and healthy for next year?
We know that the extra long season last year wore on him and on everyone on the team and it was absolutely, definitely worth it because we won the title. But if we’re almost sure we won’t win the title this year, then why pay the same price?
Here’s something we know for sure; KG will try to come back no matter what his physical condition is like. That’s just the player he is and that’s one of his best qualities. It’s also a dangerous quality because his intensity leads him to expend a tremendous amount of energy at all times. If he comes back before he’s ready and this could very well happen, we might see career threatening damage; that’s just how knees work. Obviously this is a question for the doctors since I and almost no one here has the adequate expertise.
by Reddo on Apr 6, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd go with by the end of the second round
It’s gonna be a wait and see. He won’t be full strength until the playoffs anyway, so assuming they are watching carefully, if he is still experiencing discomfort that might cause further injury through the second round, I think they shut him down.
by chunnamark on Apr 6, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on the other hand
if he just feels funny but isn’t risking further injury, then they have him just play through the pain…
Somewhat unrelated: Is it me, or do people who have had knee injuries (like myself!) think that KG’s injury must be the same as theirs? I’m convinced he has a sprained ACL and a torn meniscus – but that’s because that’s what I had… hopefully I’m wrong!
by chunnamark on Apr 6, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think we're gonna need KG if we want to beat Cavs in Cleveland
without KG, i don’t us beating the Cavs at home (they’ll be 38-1 that day). that’s a lot to ask. personally, i don’t think it’s worth rushing things. i say we just get healthy, KG in particular, and ease him in as the playoffs start. if he can’t give much at first, wait till he’s better, even if it means waiting till next year.
i am not for doom and gloom but i also don’t see us going far without a healthier, and improving, KG. KG at 50-75% is not going to be enough.
by csung on Apr 6, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the newest blog posting says KG is out for the Cavs game
oh, well. i am for doom and gloom next sunday at least.
by csung on Apr 6, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like how the guys who are healthy are playing. What I wish I knew was whether Scal and Powe are attending practices right now. If Scal, Powe and KG are say 80%, I think we can still win it. Baby is playing so well and Powe was playing so well, and Marbury might be on the verge of providing a huge boost out there. He actually moves a lot like Chris Paul out there and he is being totally unselfish. House is on fire, and Ray is playing well. This is a great team that might pull it out even with kg playing limited(16-24?) minutes in many games.
by wahz on Apr 6, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
An example: Many years ago, it was common to remove bone spurs in cases of plantar fasciitis
But outcome studies found that not removing the spur was the better tactic. The spur growing along the tendon or fascia was a symptom of the tightness/inflammation of the connective tissue and not the problem itself(the spur wasn’t causing the swelling).
by wahz on Apr 6, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IF it was a spur causing the knee sprain
KG should have had surgery a month ago and he might have been ready to play by playoff time. I think.
by The Real Large James 2 on Apr 6, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If KG iis healthy enough to be the force he is on defense, Celtics can win in Cleveland.
Offensively, KG needs only to be good enough that he still draws attention. Pierce and Ray can do the heavy lifting.
Defensively, if KG is himself, the Celtics are in a bad way against Cleveland, LA, SA…
by Wide Load on Apr 6, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post!
Love the self-evident truths! Makes me feel a lot better about the whole thing…
by chunnamark on Apr 6, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Count on the #3 seed guys
If you look at what the Magic have left on their schedule vs. what we do, there is no way with a half game lead that we are going to end up with the 2 seed not being healthy. The Magicon the other hand don’t play anyone tough other than Houston. It is likely that they will win out. Worst case lose 1 game. We on the other hand play the Heat and Cleveland. We will lose at least one of those two. Then a tough game against Philly who will have something to prove. I think we will lose 2 of the 5 and end up 3rd. Philly may give us a little trouble with a young athletic team, but we can handle them. The tougher matchup will be against Orlando in the next round. Not a big deal if we have KG and Powe back. If no KG then we will struggle but it is still winnable. No KG and the EC finals won’t matter as we won’t beat them in a series without him. It is what it is.
by EJPLAYA on Apr 6, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree and disagree: we can win anyway
- Completely agree that these remaining games don’t matter
- Do not agree that without a near-100% KG we can’t win the ECF. Anybody who really believes that can just walk away now, because it’s almost certain that KG will NOT be back at near-100% for the playoffs. (http://www.celticsblog.com/2009/4/3/821370/we-do-know-whats-wrong-with-kg-the)
- I don’t understand how this continues to be a subject of speculation. It has been reliably reported (source: KG’s agent, Andy Miller) that KG has loose cartilage in his knee. It’s too late for arthroscopic surgery pre-playoffs. Therefore, it’s almost certain that KG will NOT be 100%, and worse, he could go to 0% at any time. That’s the reality. It’s not a “bone spur”. It’s not a “knee strain”. It is what it is.
- KG will not want to play if he’s hurting the team. If he’s a step slow on D and unable to fight for loose balls and rebounds, he will probably not play.
- With Baby, Perk, Powe (and even Mikki) stepping up for KG, this team can win it all. Rondo will be key. Marbury will be key off the bench. And of course the reliable Remaining Two.
- With or without KG, this team has the best defensive scheme in the league. Others have tried to emulate it, but none has matched it. Defense wins championships.
- Remember too that both Cleveland and Orlando (and the Lakers, for that matter) depend on one player per team. Take LBJ or Howard out of the equation… through bad games, excellent D, fouls, or a twist of fate… and that team is dead in the water. That’s a bad place to be for any club. On the other hand, we lose KG and we’re still in their contending.
- Our remaining players must stay healthy from now on. One more loss of a key guy would be devastating. Health is the biggest factor going in. (Paul – use that hyperbaric chamber of yours!)
- And finally, much will depend on the refs. If the NBA is determined to crown Lebron James this year, we can’t win. Only rarely can 5 guys beat 8. But if they call fair games and let us play our D, we win.
by DRJ1 on Apr 6, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs























