The Big (Baby) Questions
by Roy_Hobbs on May 20, 2009 11:44 AM EDT
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintWhile the Celtics will have as many as six free agents, there is little doubt that fans seem most interested in the future of Glen "Big Baby" Davis. BBD averaged 15.8 points and 5.6 rebounds in the playoffs, and seemed to be hitting his jump shot at a fairly regular clip (including one clutch dagger against Orlando). With that in mind, it's time to look at what BBD's current status is, what his market looks like, and whether it makes sense to sign him.
1. What is BBD's current status? How much can we re-sign him for?
Assuming the Celtics make him a qualifying offer by June 30 of between $1.0 and $1.1 million, BBD will be a restricted free agent. That means that the Celtics will have an opportunity to match any contract offer sheet BBD signs with another team.
Because BBD is a second year player, other teams are restricted in the amount they can offer him. In the first two years of any contract BBD signs, he is limited to the amount of the mid-level exception (somewhere between $5.0 and $5.5 million next season). In the third year, however, BBD's salary can jump to the maximum amount allowable under the CBA, which looks like it will be in the neighborhood of $13.5 to $14.0 million. BBD can be offered up to a five year deal by other teams, which could max out at an average annual value of between $11.0 and $12.0 million per season.
Because the Celtics have "Early Bird" rights to BBD, they can match any deal that BBD receives, without having to use the MLE.
2. Is BBD likely to give the Celtics a "home town discount"?
"If I was a rookie, I’d be like, ‘Man, I want to stay here,’ but now I understand that it’s a business," Davis said. "I love the staff here. I love the coaches. I love everybody here, but sometimes it just doesn’t work out. Hopefully it works out. If it not, then not. If I have to go somewhere else, I’ll go somewhere else."
That echoes words in yesterday's Herald that "This is a business first. You just have to go where you have to go" and in the Globe that "I feel a lot of emotions. It's a business" and "you always realize that it's still a business. You just got to take the bad with the good". Several weeks ago, BBD noted that it was "hard not to think about" his pending free agency.
In the past, BBD has made it clear that getting paid is important to him, too. After BBD fell to the second round, a local Louisiana paper reported:
"There's a difference in the money, but as a kid you want the dream of going in the first round," Davis said. "The draft is only one day. You've got to keep playing and keep fighting."
Added [Davis' agent, John] Hamilton, ". . .[T]he majority of second-round guys have the potential to make a lot of money. I think he felt a lot better with everything (Friday) after we sat down and talked about it away from the big crowd.
(June 30, 2007, "The Advocate" (Louisiana))
Davis' agent then pressed hard to make sure BBD was a free agent in two years (rather than the three the team was offering), to make sure that he could get paid earlier.
With all of the above, it seems clear that BBD views himself as simply a Celtics employee, and wants to maximize his earning potential, whether that be with the team or elsewhere. It appears very likely that BBD will sign with whatever team offers him the biggest contract.
3. How much can BBD expect?
According to Marc Spears, "one general manager said he could command $3 million-$5 million per season."
That seems to be in line with what other players of his talents are earning, including Nenad Kristic ($5.0 million), Jason Maxiell ($5.0 million beginning next season), Joe Smith ($4.8 million), Reggie Evans ($4.6 million), Ronny Turiaf ($4.5 million), Kurt Thomas ($4.2 million), Kwame Brown ($4.0 million), Amir Johnson ($3.7 million), Ryan Gomes ($3.5 million), and Carl Landry ($3.0 million).
4. Will the Celtics match any offer BBD receives?
The Celtics would like to have Davis back, but it appears as though they don't want to overpay. In speaking with the Dennis and Callahan show on WEEI, Doc Rivers looked at BBD's pending free agency:
Rivers said he is uncertain whether free agent[ ] Glen "Big Baby" Davis . . . will return next season . . .
"With Baby, it will probably come down to what he can get on the open market . . .
From that quote, it appears as though the Celtics have a price they'd be willing to pay, but it's not unlimited.
5. Should the Celtics match any offer BBD receives?
That's the question of the day, isn't it? The Celtics are going to have to think long and hard about how BBD fits into their budget for next season. Right now, assuming Eddie House comes back, the Celtics have guaranteed salaries next season of $73.0 million. That puts them somewhere between $3.0 and $5.0 million over the estimated luxury tax of $68 to $70 million, before signing anybody. As we all know, the Celtics have to pay a dollar-for-dollar penalty on any amount over the luxury tax. It's understandable, then, why the Celtics would want to adhere to a budget.
Last season, the Celtics had a payroll of approximately $80 to $81 million. If the Celtics want to maintain a similar payroll this season, that means the Celtics have somewhere between $7 million and $8 million to spend. If that's the case, it's likely that the Celtics will be looking to fill out the roster using the MLE (around $5.0 million) and minimum salary deals (approximately $800k each).
If the choice then becomes "use the MLE" or "sign BBD", it's a difficult one. As mentioned yesterday, there are a variety of quality free agents on the market, including guys like Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Marion, Antonio McDyess, etc. (The entire list is available here). Danny Ainge has said he wants to add to the team's front line, and Doc has said it's very important to get a backup small forward. Some of the available guys are no doubt going to want more than the MLE.
That being the case, if the team is asked to choose between BBD on one hand, and Antonio McDyess and Grant Hill on the other, I think the Celtics may have to swallow hard and allow BBD to move on. Obviously, the ideal solution is for the team to bring back BBD *and* sign key free agents, but that may not be realistic.
Ultimately, my opinion is that I like what BBD brings to the team, but it's important to remember that he's a flawed player. While his stats in the playoffs look good, keep in mind that he was playing 36 minutes per game. During the regular season, he averaged 7.0 points and 4.0 rebounds, filling a role similar to what he'd be asked to fill next season. He's an undersized player who is a mediocre rebounder who doesn't block shots. He's not a great finisher around the hoop, and has an erratic jump shot. (For more on BBD's strengths and weaknesses, see Celtics Hub's analysis.) He made huge, huge strides this season, and obviously continuing to improve. However, it's important not to fall in love with this guy and give him a huge contract simply because he played well over the course of a few weeks.
Additionally, of course, there's the elephant in the room: BBD's weight. BBD dropped a ton of weight during his draft workouts, because he was looking to improve his draft position (and thus get paid). After that, he rapidly gained much of his weight back, for whatever reason. NBA history gives us other examples of large players who struggled with their weight (Stanley Roberts, Orlando Miller, even Shaquille O'Neal). There's at least a concern that BBD will regress after getting a big contract.
Based upon those concerns, I'm not comfortable offering BBD a deal for the full MLE. If we can get him for 3 years, $10 million, I think that's a good deal, assuming that it doesn't limit our opportunity to make other moves.. 3 years, $15 million - or anything more than that - is probably a little too much.
The important thing for the team this year is to actually upgrade its bench, rather than maintaining the status quo. If resigning BBD gets in the way of that goal, I think we have to move on.
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Question 6: Are the C's in a position do a sign and trade with BBD and what would that look like?
I’m not versed enough on the rules, but can we do a S&T using our Early Bird rights so another team doesn’t have to use its MLE and send him far far away from our competition?
My worst fear is he signs with CLE or ORL to help their front lines and then comes back to burn us (irrational I know given I don’t think he’s anywhere near elite, I just think guys like Howard and Lebron would really cover his weaknesses.)
Yes, but it's complicated
The team could sign-and-trade BBD, but it’s complicated by him being a “base year compensation” player.
See here: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q76
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
resigning glen davis
the way davis is talking its like he wont be back with the celtics if he gets a offer he cant refuse he is gone just another greedy athelite taking the money and running…….
He's a lot more candid than most athletes, that's for sure...
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
It's very difficult to put a price on him
without knowing who else will be available and for what price (I never liked to assess players extensions without evaluating the FA market in that particular year; it’s kind of cheating the economic laws) – and, of course, without knowing what are the budgetary restrictions (assuming they exist). He wouldn’t be a priority of mine though. I think anything about $3 millions/year is already overpaying – especially because if BBD is going to be our first big off the bench, we’ll need a very good 4th big, a guy with a specific skill-set, to pair with him.
especially because if BBD is going to be our first big off the bench, we’ll need a very good 4th big, a guy with a specific skill-set, to pair with him.
True Statement
Anyone think there’s something off about paying a guy $3-5mil to be your first big off the bench, and then having such a substantial hole in the backup four?
We have to keep him
In my opinion the goal of every team is to get better from one year to the next. If we lose Big Baby we will most certainly not be better. KG won’t be around forever, and we need to have someone ready to step in and replace him
In my opinion...
It’s valid to look to the future, but BBD is in no way, shape, or form a potential KG replacement. I don’t expect BBD to ever be much more than a marginal starter in the NBA.
I also can’t say “If we lose Big Baby we will most certainly not be better.” I mean, if we replace him with players who are better than him (such as McDyess) we’d at the very least be better for one season. (And yes, McDyess is significantly better than Davis.)
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
I disagree...
BBD is only in his second year, and you could argue that he is a marginal starter now. If you look at the leap he made from last year to this year I believe he will become a fringe all star. I want to clarify that when I say replacement for KG, I mean the person who plays his position after he retires. I did not mean he will come in and be as valuable to the team as KG.
I don't see it...
I don’t think BBD has the inherent athleticism or skill set to be an all-star.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Me neither
BBD has about hit his ceiling. He will always be limited and cannot be a starter on a campionship level team. He is no better than the handful of players (e.g., Gomes) that we let traded in the KG trade. For me, it is about next year and possibly the one after. We need to do what we can to maximize the possibility of winning a championship. If BBD comes cheap, then we can keep him. If not, let him walk. Bottom line is that I am not interested in BBD as a starter beyong the big three (or two) anyway. We should be able to do better any time we choose.
Gomes
Looking at the “comparable players” I noted above, I’d love to have Gomes here. Gomes at $3.5 million or BBD at $5.0 million: is there really even a choice there?
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Gomes?
I can’t see the love for him – as a professional player yes. But he’d basically be an undersized 4 / over sized 3, isn’t that what Scalabrine is? Does he play better D than Scal? (I know his offense is much better.)
Gomes can't defend anyone
Except Scalabrine and the likes. Gomes is a great guy, but as a basketball player, he’s mediocre.
I’m in the minority, but from my perspective – unless it was a case of Ainge scratching McHale’s back – it was a huge mistake not to make an offer to Ryan.
Or to put it another way – Gomes at two years for $7 million or Posey at four years $25 million or a pre-season flier on Darius Miles and some money in Wyc’s pocket. Is there really even a choice there?
by The Walker Wiggle on May 20, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t see the comparison
Gomes is no way near the player BBD is. I don’t know that I would call him a fringe all-star, but he is a much better player than people ever give him credit. He has amazingly fast feet for someone his size. I think he is an incredibly underrated defender. I have always been amazed at his overall basketball IQ considering that he is still just a 2nd year player. He is a great passer. He can play center. His outside game is starting to look really strong. And, the dude is a gamer. He is not afraid to put it out on the line. I would be so happy if we able to keep him, but it seems a little bleak.
Gomes vs. BBD
Per 36 minutes:
Gomes: 15.0 pts / 5.4 reb / 1.9 ast / .486 eFG%
BBD: 11.7 pts / 6.6 reb / 1.5 ast / .444 eFG%
In other words, the only place statistically that BBD is slightly better than Gomes is in terms of rebounding, which makes sense since Gomes plays SF more often than not, while BBD is a PF/C.
The two players are different, but if I had to choose one, I’d like Gomes.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Statistics...
Are a ridiculous way to judge a players overall team contributions. A.I. has better career numbers than Billups. I’m taking Billups, thank you very much. Gomes is an adequate, smart player, but can he keep Pau Gasol out of the paint? Can he play good one on one defense? Can he play excellent team defense? Is he a good interior passer? Can he block out 7 footers? Can he create pick the way BBD does? I would take BBD over Gomes in a heartbeat. People only judge him on his one major downfall: his lack of vertical.
You are completely right
I highly doubt BBD will get significantly better than he already is now. He’s undersized and underskilled, just overall a flawed player. Most of his production simply comes from playing hard and aggressively. He’s only a good deal if we get him at a relatively low price, otherwise let him walk.
I agree with the low price, but...
he has a long way to go to his full potential. Undersized, yes. Underskilled, are you kidding. Give me a break. Are you forgeting about his defense? like everyone else that puts down his game?
Me either.
I obviously was and continue to be absolutely disdainful of the “fiscal prudence” displayed by management last summer – but Baby is one case where I favor it. Too many variables that can go wrong, and a limited skill set.
$10 large for 3 is my maximum. If he can get more, I shake his hand and wish him luck.
woah woah woah
fringe all-star? my friend, the man developed an 18ft jump shot and got some more confidence, his leap was not that significant.
Stats don’t look good for Davis as a starter at PF.
Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins 1074 mins +12 net48 Off 1.11 Def .98
Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Davis-Perkins 361 mins -5 net48 Off 1.09 Def 1.15
Playing in 2nd unit lineups, he fares a lot better (playing at C in the lineups)
House-T.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Davis 145mins +13 net48 Off 1.04 Def 1.00
House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Powe-Davis 101mins +22 net48 Off 1.13 Def .99
I concur
And if we can split up Baby’s potential ($5 mill) salary between 2 quality veterans, such as G Hill and McDyess, well that’s an extremely significant upgrade.
You can't split his potential salary
We still have our MLE if we sign him, so you don’t have to think of it as either these two vets or him, we can have both. That’s not to say that signing him wouldn’t effect our cap in the future, but we could easily sign him and vets.
Big Baby’s athleticism is not that bad he has very quick feet has good hands and is strong. If he can ever shed those excess pounds much in the way Perk did to start his career I see him as a more post oriented Antoine without the jacking of 3’s.
Technically, we can sign both...
… but in reality? It’s hard to say. The team has a budget to adhere to, in all likelihood.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
However,
If someone gives him near max money let him walk
Max money?
Don’t be worried, that won’t happen.
Yeah, agreed...
The bit about what teams theoretically could offer was meant simply to be informative; there’s no chance that anybody actually does give BBD a 5 year, $55 million contract.
I get frustrated when I read articles like the one on NESN today, that says BBD’s “price tag will likely be $5 million or more”. It’s possible that BBD gets a deal for more than $5 million, but I think it’s far from likely.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Ronny Turiaf money?
Ronny’s panic offer from Golden State was for a front-loaded $17 million over four years. Now clearly, as high-energy, bench bigs, their bodies and skill sets are far apart, but it points the way towards a possible $5 million in the first year for Glen. Sure, Davis is a lot less viable at center, but he’s got more upside, and already holds the edge in most other regards.
I do agree the “or more” is hard to see in any scenario…
by The Walker Wiggle on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all about his size...height and weight
Undersized in height and oversized in weight. The Cs top priority should be someone tall and talented who could play either 4 or 5. Wallace and McDyess come to mind. Their second priority is a wing player who can spell 2 or 3 and defend. Marion? I like Big Baby, but not at $5m/year.
You Can't Assume
That those players will want to play for us, after we won the championship a lot of us believed that we could sign a lot of vets to make us even better. Unfortunately not everyone wants to play for the c’s
You're right
And that is what will make this offseason tricky. I would rather have any number of vets over BBD. But it we do not play things correctly, then we may lose out big time. Either way, the team needs to do it due diligence to see what players may be interested in which are not and move quickly.
I would like to see the Celtics re-sign BBD
But if he asks too much money (and do a “James Posey”), I say let him go. I would be disappointed to see him prefer the money to the Celtics, but he is right, it’s a business… still I think that sometimes you should follow your heart instead of your bank account (like Turiaf last year, who loved L.A but preferred the money to end up in an horrible Warriors team). Yeah, I know it’s easy to say that when you’re not the guy who gets some very interesting financial offers.
Marion
That’s an interesting option since he can play the 3 or the 4, and then Pierce can slide to the 2 when he’s at the 3. But isn’t he all washed up? Can he get juvinated here?
A bench of Marion as the 6th man, would mean focusing more on a solid option for the 5 who bang, and using Scal (plus maybe Powe later) at the 4.
He would be great
He is an awesome rebounder good defensive player and strong finisher. However, I don’t think even the full MLE would get him to Boston.
Agreed...
He’s got a great skill set, but I think he wants a bigger contract. Additionally, he doesn’t seem to be wired to be the 3rd or 4th best player on a team.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
that's too bad...
because unless he goes to the kings he will never be the best player on any team
agree with that
but as a 6th man on the C’s (given the rest of the bench) he could get a lot of minutes… in fact people were kind of down on Posey when we signed him IIRC. Could be good for Marion to do a one year deal (MLE with player option for year 2) get the starter minutes off the bench and then look for a payday. He seemed mediocre in his stint in MIA and TOR even though he threw up a PER of 16.
if he’s looking to be the best player on a team (or even numero duo) he’s going to be disappointed or losing.
fact people were kind of down on Posey when we signed him IIRC. Could be good for Marion to do a one year deal (MLE with player option for year 2) get the starter minutes off the bench and then look for a payday
I think that’s a very good idea for Marion. I didn’t think of that.
I believe Marion will have a much better chance at getting a larger contract next season. There will be a lot more teams with cap space in 2010, and several of them will be looking for impact veterans … versus the teams who don’t seem interested in Marion this summer.
Taking a one year deal is his best option — or resigning with Toronto depending on what they offer, although he’s unlikely to win anything there.
I don't think it makes sense for Marion to sign a one year deal...
… unless it’s with Toronto. If he signs with any other team, he loses Bird rights. That impacts him not only if he wants to resign with that team, but also if he’s hoping for a sign-and-trade.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
may I offer my 2 cents?
I am a devoted Suns and Celtics fan, so I have watched a lot of Matrix and loved him. He is best suited for the running game. He was a good, near all-star level player statistically before the nash years, but the team was pretty much crap back then (apart from him and Amare and Starbury on his good days). He blew up when Nash arrived and there is one thing for why he would be a great fit in the Celtics: Rondo is a very-very good creator. Marion can’t create his own shot at all, however he can hit threes, mid-range Js, and is an explosive dunker, adn good FT shooter (though he has the ugliest shot in the NBA). In the Suns, he was the best in the year of Amare’s absence, when he was the focus of the offense… he averaged around 25 points, which is pretty good, especially considering he was palying PF and often even center, banging against much taller and stronger opponents. He needs the offense to get him many looks… Not sure that would work. However, if the Celtics decide to go small for stints with KG at center, Marion at the 4 and Pierce-Allen-Rondo, then the Matrix can flourish. Just guarantee him quality minutes and looks, and just might accept the MLE for 1-2 years, as he has proved oftentimes that he wants to win
Once upon a time the Suns got out on the break... and along came Steve sucKerr
Thanks for that info. I would love to have Marion on the team. He is more athletic than BBD, more experienced and wants to win. Unfortunately, he may be too expensive for us. Your point about playing with Marion is a good one. Between he and KG, Rondo will have a field day setting them up on offense. Then what does the defense do with Ray and Pierce. Could be a deadly offensive team without harming the defense very much.
I appreciate the info...
However, didn’t Marion have issues with being the third option in Phoenix? Wasn’t he dealt due to chemistry concerns?
All I keep thinking of is his interview with ESPN the Magazine:
So what about it, Shawn? Would you rather be a 30-point scorer and an MVP candidate on a lesser team, say, one only flirting with the postseason, than the sidekick to the sidekick in Phoenix? “Wow, that’s interesting,” he says thoughtfully, as if he’s never entertained the prospect before.
Marion pauses nearly 10 seconds to concentrate on the question. Only the muted sound of late-afternoon traffic outside the two-story living room breaks the silence. He fiddles with the remote as if it holds the answer. “I’ve never been asked that,” he continues. "That would be an interesting situation to be in, to really show people what I can do.
“But we’d be in the playoffs, right?”
That doesn’t sound like a guy who values winning over everything else.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
well the thing is
he was in Phoenix since the dark days, years before Nash, and even Amare, and has always give much to the team. He was appreciated and loved by the fans, and for years, was considered to be a good teammate, but the coaching staff IMO didn’t value him enough and he got fed up. especially after putting up an insane season in the year Amare was injured (stats: GP 81 MPG 40.3 FG .525 3p .331 FT% .809 RPG 11.8 APG 1.8 SPG 2.0 BPG 1.7 TPG 1.5 PPG 21.8). So yes, he was somewhat of a distraction in his last half-season, but overall was a good chemistry guy
Once upon a time the Suns got out on the break... and along came Steve sucKerr
Yeah, but the rumor was...
He’d get irritated if the Suns dancers were wearing Amare’s and Nash’s uniforms, and not his. He seemed to have a huge jealous streak. How would that type of attitude fit in if he’s behind KG, Pierce, Ray, and Rondo?
I love the guy’s skills, I just worry about his makeup.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
whoa. never heard of that. It seems a little exagerrated...
Once upon a time the Suns got out on the break... and along came Steve sucKerr
All that stuff...
… is contained in Jack McCallum’s “Seven Seconds or Less” book, apparently. It really goes into how fragile Marion’s psyche is.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
damn
I can’t buy that here in Hungary. Okay, well, insider info is obviously better… but I think he was fed up by then, and that played a part in the thing as well. Or he might just be too selfish. But Pierce was (by other teams’ fans at least) often considered selfish (although he was clearly the best player on his team) and Allen was the no 1 guy for years… Even Marion might buy into all this. I’d love it
Once upon a time the Suns got out on the break... and along came Steve sucKerr
Yes you can
http://www.amazon.com/Seven-Seconds-Less-Season-Phoenix/dp/074329811X
It’s a great basketball book.
A great fit
It will be great to have Marion be the first guy coming off the bench. But honestly I don’t think we have the $$ he is looking for.
Davis should take the money
I’d love to have him back, but Big Baby should try to get as much money as he can. Players with his body type typically do not have long careers, so he should take it while it’s there.
by papa shuttlesworth on May 20, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
Under Early Bird Exception they must offer 175% of his latest salary or the average player salary (MLE) – whichever is greater, – in this case the MLE equivalent.
Glen must get an offer of the MLE from the Celtics. They cannot offer less. But they can offer it for one year, if they want. Then Glen will be under full Bird Rights next season.
You're reading that wrong, I believe
The most the team can offer is 175% of his previous salary, or the average salary amount (the MLE). However, the qualifying offer is 125% of the player’s previous salary, or the player’s minimum salary plus $175,000, whichever is greater. In this case, that amounts to roughly $1 million.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
“Using this exception, a team may re-sign its own free agent for 175% of his salary the previous season or the average player salary, whichever is greater” ….Larry Coon site
Reading the exact language, It doesn’t say “up to”, or “the most” (though it does use that phrasing in other situations) though I understand your questioning it because of the qualifying offer situation.
While the qualifying offer falls under the general guidelines of free agency, as you know and stated, Glen also falls under the Early Bird Exception, which to my understanding, takes precedence (as does the Gilbert Arenas Rule) over the general FA rules.
If true, that would also mean that any other offer by the Cs must be hinged to that number. They would only be able to get Glen for $10 mil over three years if that was tendered by a new team and the Celtics matched. Certainly, that is a real possibility.
So, my understanding is that the qualifying offer just shows good intent on the part of the Cs and retains matching rights for them. While it is theoretically possible that is all that Glen is offered, it is not likely.
If the negotiations move beyond the qualifying offer, and they will, the language indicates that the next offer the Cs can make is the average player salary amount under the Early Bird rules.
If I can get some sort of authorative confirmation I will. The Cs will not comment on any contract negotiations, though.
Plenty of Big man on Free Agent list
Roy what is the status on Semih Erden the Celtics drafted? How many big man do we need?
Tough call
But based on the available FA’s, I’m leaning against bringing BBD back and going after Antonio McDyess and Shawn Marion. We are down to our final year in our window of opportunity. We have no choice but to go for it next year. BBD will not get us there.
Boston Celtics - 2008 World Champions
hmm
I don’t think we have what it takes to land Shawn Marion. That sure would be nice though, but uh… where would he start? I don’t think he will be happy coming off the bench.
BBD is an enigma. He is a serviceable player, but not one you want to drop a lot of dollars on. The thing about him that nobody’s mentioned so far is the value that he has to our play diagrams. The dude sets MONSTER screens. A lof of those big shots in the Chicago series that Ray hit were ones that came off of screens set by Davis. What’s the dollar value on that? It’s not a stat that shows up in his averages but it’s super valuable to the team.
I would say that if we can get him for $3m per or under, then do it. If not, pass. He’s not a $4-5 mil a year player IMO.
True.
He sets such Monster screens that it appears that he is moving on them… Oh wait…He is.
Go ahead and subtract the 3-4 pts per game teams get because he puts them in the penalty earlier than they should be with that stupid moving screen. Not much added value.
Just out of Curiosity
Can anyone come up with a list of teams that need a pf off the the top of their head. The list of potential free agent pf are: 1. Boozer, 2. Milsap 3. Marion (he can play the 4) 4. McDyess 5. BBD if he is that far down on the list maybe we can lock him up at a value price.
later big boy...
don’t let the door hit you on the way out
Honestly, I’m all set with a PF who is constantly outrebounded, by even the smallest guys on the floor(i.e. Rondo)
I love they way he developed his jumpshot, but his lack of rebounding and inability to finsh-strong at the rim are enormous downside at his position
Let’s look in another direction
by OutofServicePervis on May 20, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
big baby the big businessman-don’t blame him. he is serviceable. it all depends on what pieces danny gets to play with and what he can do. we got posey because miami got timid. i say sign him for a minimum3-4 mil and see what else he can get. we need size and depth, the same as last summer. it did not pan out and we need luck.
The free agents out there = Garbage!
You`d have to be a complete FOOL to have interest in :
Grant Hill at 37, who is always injured.
A. McDyess at 35, who is often injured.
R. Wallace at 35, who is a head-case and only wants to shoot 3-pointers.
I like S. Marion {31}, but I question him doing dirty work in the paint. He flourished in Phoenix where they ran wild with Nash.
Baby, being overweight and lacking length, will NOT spark a major bidding war for his services. He`s better than R. Gomes, so $4M tops would be fair.
YESSSSSSSSS
Finally someone that I agree with. Although I would not mind R. Wallace in addition to Baby. All those guys are declining while BBD is getting better.
I agree
I am very concerned about this infatuation with Rasheed and Hill among the fans.
I think McDyess still has one season left (at most), though.
I am telling you right now: If that´s what we´ll do in the off-season, we`ll have a worse team than this year.
Personally
I like guys like Nesterovic, Ross and Bogans
Two of these guys should be available, and the third one has to be acquired through trades mid-season. Maybe Danny has an ace up in his sleeve, and finds a player in the draft ( I know it´s a weak draft, but that never stopped Ainge).
1 through the Draft, 1 through trades, 1 through free agency.
Wallace concerns me … he was struggling last year and has lost a lot of athleticism.
I’m interested in Hill and McDyess though — Grant Hill is coming off two very good seasons in Phoenix and looks in great shape and McDyess was Detroit’s best player by a massive margin. Those two players are playing very well and look to have at least another season in them at a good level.
If we weren't willing to pay Posey then....
I know I know, Davis has the Youth factor going for him. But I still think Posey was worth keeping more than BBD. If Davis’ value demands more than Posey, I doubt we will keep him.
Different Situations
We did not sign Posey because he wanted an extra year, added to his contract. We thought he would not be effective at that point. This time around it won’t be about the length of the contract but about the money.
celtics need options
we need to spend big money if we are going to have a chance for 18 with our aging stars.
i like BBD,
also one FA.
either Mcdyess or marion.
Rondo & marion together could be great for us.
Agree that Rondo and Marion would be fun to watch
Tommy would love to see the uptempo potential! And so would I.
Imagine
If they signed Marion and embraced BSG’s idea about a pressing squad? I could see KG, Rondo, Marion, and two bench wings (Walker and TA) out there driving the other team nuts. While Pierce and Allen regenerate.
If Baby doesn't return
and with Leon being out at least half the year and there being at least a little question about what level KG is going to return to, then do we then need to get 2 big men, a backup SF and a backup PG? Because if we do then we would have to do it all with just the MLE, LLE and vet minimums.
And if that’s the case, I don’t like what might be walking through that door next year. Yes, the MLE and LLE could bring in something decent, but what then? Do we go into next year with Perk, KG, a broken Leon, Scal, and the MLE signee as our entire frontline?
I don’t want to overpay for Baby but will the alternative be better? I think this year clearly showed you need a good 6 men to man the 4 and 5 position for a entire year. If Baby leaves, we lose out on getting a decent frontline backup because we lose out on his salary slot. It severely inhibits the Celtics ability to put enough quality big men on the team next year.
You, sir, deserve a TP
The voice of reason.
Also, I think the C’s need four rotation big men and then allow Scalabrine to be the fifth big. I think that’s enough big men. Scal can fill in ably if one of the backup bigs get injured, or are in poor form. If KG gets injured, you’re not winning anyway. If Perk gets injured, the only player that matters is that first big man off the bench, if he’s good enough you may still have a chance, and Scal + the fourth big can fill the bench hole left by that big man.
So I think you have KG, Perk … then two big man holes … then Scal as a fifth big man and I think that’s more than enough cover.
I think the club will have a sixth big — although I don’t think it’s important — If the club keep Powe, that’ll be the sixth big man. If the club don’t keep Powe, they can add a minimum contract guy like Magloire or Ratliff to be a third string center who would only play if something very bad happened.
I would let BBD walk if he wants more than $3 million per year. He is not going to get taller and unless he works out hard, he will not get any lighter. This team is designed to for a 3-4 year window to win a championship. That leaves 2 more years to win number 18. I would therefore use the money to sign a veteran like McDyess and some more cash on a back up center. I would keep Pruitt as Rondo’s backup and bring him along, as I would Walker. These guys have talent. They just need to play, like the Magic let Lee play and the Rockets let Brooks play. Resign House and you have a great team. No need to break up the core.
It's Hard To Know..
What players are worth in this economy. In prior years I’d guess that BBD was worth 4 million. Today, I’m not so sure.
The problem the Celtics have is that, because of the huge salaries the big three make, plus the need to extend Rondo (who has to be worth 7-8 million a year at least), every salary dollar they spend on bench players will cost double due to the luxury tax.
So if some other team offers BBD 3M, the Celtics have to ask themselves if he is worth 6 M. to them.
Luxury Tax
When the Celtics put the Big Three together it is a given they need to be above the luxury tax to field a team. As long as they have the Big Three, they need to be willing to spend extra for the surrounding players if they want to have a quality team with depth.
So they really need to be willing to pay 3M (or 6M) to a decent role player, otherwise it is a lot of Patrick O’Brien, Mikki Moore, and other frustrating bigs.
Why the need to extend Rondo?
You can wait till next season. Even if they give him an extension this Summer, that wouldn’t affect his salary next season.
True, but...
… when thinking about the deals to hand out this season, I’m sure the team will be looking at the luxury tax and salary commitments in future seasons.
I think the budget is an unfortunate reality with this team, but I’ll be very happy if I’m proven wrong. If the team spends what it takes to sign BBD, plus the MLE and LLE as well, I’ll be a happy camper.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Yeah, I agree with that
I’ve said several times I found unlikely that the team can afford to sign BBD and still spend the exceptions.
Which is why I think they extend him this summer.
They can extend him this summer and give him his huge increase the year Ray’s deal comes off the books to mitigate the amount of total money going out. The year following Pierce’s contract is off the books which will make Rondo’s extension even more affordable.
Granted the C’s might extend Ray and Paul but I don’t think they do it for anywhere near what they are currently making.
You extend Rondo this year if you can to keep him out of restricted free agency. He could get a huge offer sheet from one of the teams that misses out on the LeBron sweepstakes.
You can be sure that Mike D’Antoni would love to have Rondo. With Rondo, the Knicks would be back in business.
D'Antoni signing a guard that can't shoot from distance
Yeah, right..
Anyway, my point is that you don’t “need” to extend Rondo now. If his asking price is affordable, sure, take the risk of an early extension . But that would affect next season salary roll in any case.
It's not a need, but it's pretty common practice for a guy you don't want leaving
Another team could just make an outrageous offer when he hits free agency forcing Boston to match, or worse could make an offer while negotiations are pending.
It’s hard to tell where the salary cap is going in the next few seasons, but it’d be a smart idea to lock up the one Celtic with legit All-Star potential.
That Steve Nash is exactly the same as Kirk Hinrich, but worse.
by NBA Observer on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM CDT
by Ozzie Montana on May 20, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay let's say Danny lets Baby walk and Eddie returns
That means we have KG, PP, RA, RR, KP, Tony, Eddie, Scal, Gabe, JR, and Walker. That leaves 4 positions open with at the very least two of them being PF’s or C’s. Maybe even three. Our height in who we already have signed is in Perk, Garnett and Scal and that’s it as of right now.
That leaves $5.5 million in MLE, $2 million in the LLE and vet mins. Unless there is a trade, I don’t see how this team enters next year with 6 quality bigs, a good back up SF and a good back PG. Obviously either Danny is going to have to rely on this year’s rookies and projects to grow into back up roles at SF and SG and PG or he might have a lot of other Mikki and POBs coming into camp again. I just don’t see how the MLE, LLE and vet mins are going to fill all the holes we have if Baby leaves.
Obviously that if you can spend the exceptions and still sign Baby you do it
I doubt that’s the case though. As Hobbs says bellow, a total payroll of $100 million looks unrealistic.
The FA market this season will be a buyers one. A creative, wise GM should be able to fill the bench spots with those assets. Just be creative and make the right choices.
That could be the case.
However, assume BBD gets offered $5 million and we match. That still leaves the team with several holes, including at least one big man and a SF. Is the team going to spend $5.5 million filling these holes, bringing our off-season expenditures to $10.5 million (or $21 million after the luxury tax)?
That would bring our total payroll to somewhere around $83 to $85 million before luxury tax. After the tax, we’d be adding an additional $13 to $15 million, which would leave us with a total payroll of $100 million. It may be that that figure is unrealistic, or it may be the team recognizes that it “lost” two rounds of playoff revenue this season, and is willing to spend more to win. Time will tell.
If Danny is under a budget restriction, the team is going to have to prioritize. It may be spend on BBD, or spend on the MLE, but not both. If that’s the case, I’d rather look to the MLE.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Which is why...
when it all comes down to it, I think Dannhy will have to trade Ray Allen. Not because of his playoff slumps. Not because of anything he didn’t do. But because of budgetary restrictions and the need for turning Ray’s $20 million for a SG into $10 million for a SG and $10 million for a big or SF.
I think you are right Roy. There is going to be a strict budgetary maximum that will be allowed and considering the holes that exist and the lack of quality in what we have under contract, I think a blockbuster trade is in this team’s future with a superstar departing for a viable starting replacement and a sixth man type role player.
If Baby can be had for $3.5 million per annum or less I think Danny matches and uses some of the MLE but not all. If he is going to cost more than $3.5 million, they are going to let im walk and pick up the pieces by bringing back Leon cheap and using all of the MLE.
That may be the case...
… although most of the trade ideas thrown around regarding Ray are silly. Until we get players who improve our chance to win next season, I want to keep Ray.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Yeah,
I’ve yet to hear a trade offer that makes any sense whatsoever. But, the economy and fiscal state of some teams might loosen ties on some very interesting players because they need to drop as much salary as fast as possible.
I’m especially interested in the Atlanta situation and what is going to happen with the lawsuit there and if it eventually means a dumping of as much salary as possible.
Fringe starter money for a bench player?
I’ve posted similarly in the forums, but one thing I am afraid of is the following paradox:
1. Baby has only ever played respectably as a starter.
2. He’s not good enough to be a real starter
3. His potential salary is based on the assumption that he can translate that play to a role coming off the bench.
4. He’s never really played well off the bench.
Basically I’m afraid of paying a guy for his production in a role he’s not good enough to play thus hoping he can play that well in a role he’s yet to demonstrate he can play well in.
The more I think about it
The more I realize it would be a terrible mistake paying BBD 3 mil a year.
Atlanta is interesting
Is Marvin Williams a free agent? Could he be a casualty if Atlanta’s ownership group implodes? Would we rather have Williams or BBD? We need serious size upgrades and I just can’t see keeping BBD (as much as I like Him) if it keeps us from adding legit size.
Williams
I’m sure Williams would be too expensive. The size i was thinking of was along the lines of Gortat in Orlando, Nesterovic, Chris Anderson, etc.
Fascinating summer
due to watching as to how Ainge will try to make this work. I love Ray Allen. Not a classier athlete has graced our teams around here. But from a complete team payroll structure standpoint one of the better options would be to move him for potentially three different helping pieces. Seventeen million dollars can buy a lot of help. On the other hand if we move him will we find that no matter how much bench help / backup size we add, it won’t offset Ray’s loss of leadership and skill. It will be fascinating….
Phx Suns
Just look at the Suns for replacements they have both grant hill and stromile swift coming off the books. Stromile is 4095974092 times better than mikki moore and he was making 800k while hill was making a small 2 million. Which leaves us room to add mcdyess.
McDyess is a non-starter.
Is there even one rumor or interview aside that suggests McDyess would consider signing with Boston? This is the player that threatened to retire rather than RETURN to the 2nd seed Denver Nuggets.
If I’m a betting man the odds of the Celtics signing Robert Swift over Antonio are 20-1.
by The Walker Wiggle on May 20, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
conventional wisdom
at the time was that DET was a better chance to go far then DEN, at least that’s how I recall it at the time. Additionally hasn’t McDyess ruminated in public about the decision since then?
Rumors
I read that McDyess isn’t a lock to return to Detroit, and that he’s not happy with their direction. Also, Doc said that he thought we were going to sign McDyess before he re-upped in Detroit, so apparently discussions must have been positive between Boston and his agent.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
His Jumpshot...
…looks like the Atari 2600 basketball player
http://www.videogamecritic.net/images/2600/basketball.png
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk
by mcpu40 on May 20, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
My two cents... which aren't worth much
Are that Marion won’t be coming here, and Davis will sign somewhere else. We will likely buy a late first rounder and pick a big and maybe sign a big free agent for the MLE, but I think that a battle tested veteran from MoTown is more likely than either Davis or Marion. But who really knows! Too many variable at this point to tell…
by funkstarrdeluxe on May 20, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
I really don't want to overpay Davis.
I just don’t see him as a significant piece of a championship team. I prefer Powe, really.
That being said, best of luck to him wherever he goes. I certainly won’t begrudge him his pay day.
I’d like to see Glen Davis copy David West — to lose the weight, and then try to develop into a player similar to West. I think he has a good chance of being something similar if he loses the weight.
interesting point,
though he would really have to work on his mid range game a ton, and not just the lose the weight. it’d be quite a battle to get that point. and west is a ferocious rebounder and shot blocker. not sure baby’s in that arena. But still, i keep coming back this comment, Who. Even though it’s a distant possibility, something’s there that makes it seem like it could happen. Which would be amazing. For BBD at least.
West is a good
Baby has some skillsets to be a successful PF..he still has room to improve, I also see either West or Boozer as his ceiling…a big plus for Baby is he can play backup C without any problem, he actually excells on that when paired with KG when Perk sits.
"No I’m not KG. Not at all, but I’m Big Baby Glen Davis from LSU, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I’m not the Big Ticket. I’m the Ticket Stub. Don’t count the Ticket Stub out. You might need the ticket to get in the game, but you leave with the ticket stub, because you’ll never forget this game."
BBD
Roy
Perfect summary. BBD is move or a Power SF than a PF. I can’t see overpaying for him, and even $10M might not be worth the price. His regular season numbers are more respresentitive of his skills than the playoffs He did play well offensively in the playoffs but it also showed his weaknesses: rebounding, defense and shot blocking.
BUT – last Feb around trade deadline there was talk that the C’s wanted Andres Nocione but couldn’t match up salary wise. If BBD signs an offer sheet for $4M maybe we can work a sign and trade with Sacto using BBD and either Scal or TA both expiring contracts. I don’t think ACTO likes ACs contract, but if we dump some salary (Scal or TA) it might work. I like Nocione – heck I like BBD but we can resign Leon for a lot less and he provides an inside presence.
Thanks for the feedback...
I’d love to have Nocioni here, so long as the team also signed a traditional big man (or two) with some size.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
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