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Reading Rumors Closely

Danny says: "Don't worry, I got this."

More photos » by Brian Babineau - NBAE/Getty Images

Danny says: "Don't worry, I got this."

I feel compelled to point out the difference between rumor and conjecture, in particular with Chad Ford's rumors from yesterday. 

Most of the trade details he speaks about are his educated guesses of how teams could accomplish their goals with the assets they have.  He uses the rumors he's heard to piece these ideas together.  It is a little like drawing a connect-the-dots picture when you only have about half the dots (if that).

So lets step back and review the actual rumors that Ford reports:

we keep hearing their name more and more in conjunction with a top-to-mid first-round draft pick

This is the underlying fact of this year's rumor season.  Ainge sees an opportunity to pick up a talented player high in the draft because several teams are in selling mode.

While various sources have different players pegged, there seems to be some consensus that one player in particular -- Memphis' Tyreke Evans -- is an Ainge favorite.

There are "different players pegged" so Danny probably sees value in more than one player.  "There seems to be some consensus" that Evans is his favorite.  I wonder how much of that is because of where Danny thinks he can make a trade.  The Clips don't seem to be listening to offers for Griffin.  I'd love to see Danny's draft board someday - even after the fact.  It would tell a lot about his evaluation process.

For the next rumor, you have to skip down several paragraphs.

The Kings have also reached out to the Celtics and would be willing to deal the No. 4 pick if they could get Rondo in return.

Key point here: Danny isn't offering Rondo.  The Kings want Rondo.  If I were the Kings, I'd want Rondo too.  Only makes sense.   We don't know how the rest of that conversation went but it sounds like Ainge wouldn't be willing to give up Rondo for the pick (good!).

And that's it.  Those are all the rumors Ford mentioned in particular.  The rest are his ideas and some hypothetical questions he poses.  He also blends these rumors and ideas with rumors he's heard surrounding other teams.  We've all heard that the Griz aren't a great fit for Rubio and are open to trade talk and we've already heard that the Wizards are looking to deal the pick for some kind of cap relief.  But neither of those rumors has (yet) been associated with the Celtics except by deductive reasoning.

Bottom line: We know Ainge is looking hard at several options.  He's a busy man this time of year and we're likely going to hear plenty more rumors in the weeks ahead.  After his offseason a couple years ago, he's pretty much got a lifetime pass from me (though last offseason was less than impressive).  I am confident he's got a plan.  I may not agree with that plan, but we'll have to see how it all shakes out before I can say if I like it or not.

As for these rumors: Just remember one constant rule about rumors and the weeks leading up to the draft.  Everyone lies.  There's some truth out there, but there's a lot of misdirection and flat out deception going on.  So take all of this with a grain of salt.  Enjoy the debates but don't get too worried about it until something actually happens.

Star-divide

Here are some more reactions around the web to these rumors (in case you missed them in the Daily Links)

Ray Allen for Tyreke Evans? Really? | Celtics Hub
"The Celtics are exploring the possibility of trading Ray Allen and his expiring $19 million plus contract to a team in the top five of the draft"

Just My Opinion on the Trade Rumors
"First there were the rumors that had Ray and Rondo going to Phoenix for Amare. Now come the rumors from Chad Ford that has Ray and possibly Rondo going to Grizzlies, Thunder, Kings or Wizards for Tyreke Evans, who is a projected lottery pick."

Tyreke Evans: Is He Worth Trading Up For?
"Evans, who will be highly sought after before, during, and after Draft day, has been projected to be picked early in the first round. Some have him as high as the fifth and sixth pick."

Rumor: Cs trading for #2 pick?
"In case you haven’t heard, the Cs are kicking the tires on making a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies for the #2 pick in this year’s draft."

0 recs  |  Comment 36 comments |

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Great

I really like what you wrote, with all these rumors a lot of people (myself included) were thinking that we were definitely trading Rondo or Ray. After reading your post it makes it clear that we were offered a trade for Rondo and other than Ainge’s interest in high pick we have not heard any concrete rumors. I hope we don’t trade either player and eventually end up buying a late first.

by Evantime34 on Jun 13, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good piece. There’s certainly nothing wrong with kicking a few tires, which is all any of this means – and Chad Ford doesn’t have a lot more credibility with me than Hoopshype.

The important thing for Ainge to remember is that any move he makes should enhance this club’s ability to win a title next year. Period. Rebuilding isn’t called for, and it isn’t necessary at this point.

Hence, any move to trade a starter for a draft pick and a package of spare parts, such as the trades Ford proposes, isn’t appropriate, and it won’t be greeted pleasantly in this quarter.

by CoachBo on Jun 13, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully this will keep Celtics Nation from jumping off Danny’s bandwagon prematurely. Great write up!

by Rizzo23 on Jun 13, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This probably belongs in the forums but...

speaking of rumors, a good friend who stays on top of the entire league told me last night the latest rumor is Rondo and Ray for Wade.

Filler would look something like Tony Allen and we would get Chalmers a good young point and James Jones, great shooter with a bad contract.

The rumor goes, the Heat think they could lose Wade no matter what so they do this trade simply to get Rondo to go with Beasly, then they have Ray Allen expiring and JO expiring, two killer contracts to be shopping this summer and in Feb when everyone 80% of the league will be looking to clear cap space.

Celts get Dwane Freaking Wade to go with Truth and KG, then you could tell Jason Kidd to come get his ring, or Andre Miller, or AI or Sheed, with a core of Wade Pierce and KG there isn’t a vet in the league that wouldn’t come here for free. If they care about winning

by Nut from NH on Jun 13, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Doubt It

That would be great, Wade is one of my favorite players in the league. He also happens to be a top 3 player in the league which is why they will not trade him. That being said if that trade happened I’d do backflips.

by Evantime34 on Jun 13, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

While admittedly unlikely, that’s the kind of deal Ainge should be looking to make: One that parlays our assets into someone who enhances our ability to win next year.

It still leaves a vacuum at the point and the backup 3 and 5 that would put pressure on Ainge to make some good FA decisions, but it’s an interesting deal.

I want to get back to a point Jeff made that I neglected to address initially: I do disagree with the lifetime pass statement for last year. This is a performance business and no one in it operates on historic gratitude, nor should they. Ainge had a miserable off-season last year, and he’s got a number of opportunities to enhance this club’s title chances this summer. Anything less will be two failures in a row.

by CoachBo on Jun 13, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok

maybe the lifetime pass is a bit of a stretch, but he’s got my gratitude forever for putting that team together at least

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Jun 13, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sounds good to me

I’d do that in a heartbeat (see, I can approve of some Rondo ideas)

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Jun 13, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

one helluva speculation

that’s a helluva rumor. I find it hard to believe Wade wouldn’t be resigned by Miami.

He’s got Beasley and Chalmers as good developing players and JO could be resigned as a decent frontcourt piece. Another few pieces and Miami’s a really good team.

However, if rumor has legs, it’s a no-brainer for the C’s if salaries can match up. Still need a back up 5 and a starting PG with another vet wing but getting those pieces should be easier. Adding Chalmers to the mix solves some bench issues in the backcourt. I don’t think he’s a starter (yet) but definitely a nice bench piece. If they land Mcdyess/ZaZa and Kidd/Marbury, that’s a good team to go for a title.

by slamtheking on Jun 13, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trading Rondo

Danny was not willing to include Rondo in the Garnett deal and was willing to take the chance of not trading for Garnett if it was going to cost him Rondo. So, with that in mind, I would be surprised if Rondo is on the trading block.

by ramana on Jun 13, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

didn't want to add rondo to the deal

Danny didn’t want to add rondo b/c Al was in the deal and he would be giving too much assets. but just like he traded Al he could trade rondo for the right player.

by aboubata on Jun 13, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Coach

I agree with you for the most part except I’m not sure Ainge has a lot of opportunities to enhance this team this summer. If he keeps the starting 5 intact he needs to bargain shop for his bench and his track record off of last year isn’t good. For all who believe that Rasheed Wallace or Jason Kidd or AI, etc. will sign for the MLE just to get a ring, I will believe it when i see it. I’ll be hoping Danny gets unbelieveably lucky with a Quincy Ross signing or a Keeyon Dooling trade. Maybe he gets daring and throws all the MLE at Gortat from Orlando which is what it will take. On the other hand, if Ainge does not believe Rondo is a 12-15 million a year player and has a hunch that his agent will be looking for that next summer, wouldn’t it be likely that he would move him on to someone else. He would get back some serious talent and would be probably keeping Ray for one more year and possibly having more cap room to use in the summer of 2010. I will admit I haven’t crunched the numbers. But for example say he gets the Kings pick in the upcoming draft and also Hawes or Thompson. He then is paying what 6 mil or so on those kids and then after renouncing Ray after this season, Ainge might have the room to bring in a Joe Johnson type or so. Maybe, Maybe not. Roy would probably be better to answer that question. I think that could be what he’s churning around in his mind. Tip of the hat to Winsome who mentioned this in the forums. If he picks up a vet point guard to replace Rondo for this coming season are we that much worse off to go for another title? Something to chew on. At least it isn’t dull around here.

by celty86 on Jun 13, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He had a number of opportunities: Anderson, Pietrus, resigning Posey, etc. He made a series of bad – very bad – choices that handicapped the ballclub.

He’ll have a number of similary good opportunities this summer. Hopefully, he’ll stay out of the league’s dumpsters and make some better decisions.

by CoachBo on Jun 13, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You still don't get it..

…off-seasons don’t exist in a vacuum…what he did not do last off-season creates opportunities this off-season – the 3 guys you mentioned all came with question marks, 2 became value pick ups and 1 is an albatross….

Signing MLE players is like playing Russian Roulette – you risk killing your financial flexibility…

I’m sorry, but when ownership has an 80-85 million dollar budget, they are not going to flex that budget to pay a dollar-for-dollar tax on guys like Anderson, Pietrus, and Posey…

The sooner you get the notion that “money is no object” out of your head, the sooner you’ll understand the calculated risks Ainge took last off-season…

by BillfromBoston on Jun 13, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The budget number is what I have been wondering about. I.e. How much is ownership spending? I can’t really blame them for not wanting to spend $90M+.

If $85M is their budget it seems like a trade of some sort will be necessary, unless they plan on just filling out the roster with minimum salaries (which I’m not looking forward to that).

by Berkcelt on Jun 13, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bill I hear your point on this

In fact I generally agree with your opinions on many topics. What I think Coach here is concerned with is that with but such a defined “window of opportunity” with the big 3 as a GM and owner shouldn’t you sell out to try to put as many winners as you possibly can while they can still compete at a high level barring the kind of trade that brings in a Wade or that type?

I didn’t(and still don’t) agree with resigning Posey but guys like Roger Mason, Matt Barnes, Pietrus(younger athletic players with some experience) and other could’ve helped. The thought was that Tony could’ve helped last year. They miscalculated. They cannot afford to go into this season again with Tony as a main option.

Fiscal responsibility is one thing but you wanna make sure you equip Doc with the pieces he needs to win, not just contend year in and year out. We can contend next year right now by doing almost nothing.

by bucknersrevenge on Jun 13, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on , Bill. I’m not buying a word of that. Ainge totally whiffed on a backup 3. Twice. That’s not a calculated anything. It’s a grotesque mistake, that critically compromised the season.

He signed O’Blount when few, if any, people in the league thought he could play. That’s not calculated. That’s a mistake.

He tried to sell us Tony Allen and his microscopic basketball IQ as the replacement for Posey. Wasn’t going to happen.

As Roy has pointed out before, I understand some people’s pathological need to defend Ainge. Doesn’t make it accurate.

He dropped the ball – entirely – last summer. If he has another miserable summer – including perpetuating the nonsense behind Pierce and Allen off the bench – there won’t be another title.

by CoachBo on Jun 14, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Question for Roy Hobbs

Why is trading Ray and his expiring contract better for us than having Ray’s services this year and taking that $19 mil off our own payroll next year?

by Wildblu1 on Jun 13, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

we can't sign anyone next year

even if we keep Ray and let his contract expire, we won’t be far enough under the cap to sign any major free agents

see Roy’s Salary Cap FAQ article for details

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Jun 13, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we're over the cap

  which means that when we make a trade we have to send out close to the dollar amount of what we get in a trade. If you trade Ray you can bring in $20M (or so) worth of contracts. If you let him go you can’t trade for a big money player and you won’t have any more cap space than we have now.

by BballTim on Jun 13, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

All the rumors about draft picks is making my head hurt.

I can’t imagine Doc giving a rookie significant playing time no matter how high they go in the draft . I’d hate to lose Ray or Rondo for someone who won’t be allowed to contribute meaningfully next season.

by twinbree on Jun 13, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well at least draft night might be fun

for us Celtics fans..would hate to see ray go b/c i think the C’s are only a few bench guys away from winning it all again….but a young backcourt of rondo and evans would be exciting

by celticinorlando on Jun 13, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I will tell you what's really going on...

Its simple:

Ainge is gauging the value of Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo on the open market – they are his two largest trade assets as far as changing the team around and remaining competitive.

He clearly likes some of the top-end talent in this draft and sees an opportunity to set up the team’s future while maintaining their championship aspirations in the here and now.

With so many quality PG’s and SG’s in this year’s draft, Ainge is seeing if he can’t work out some way to gather top-end talent via the draft and then fill the veteran void via trade and free agency.

Ray’s contract can clearly bring back a host of veteran players, as the Washington speculation displayed, thus rebuilding the bench with vets. Rondo could net the team another high quality package of goods with a higher end talent and a pick.

With players like Wallace, McDyess, Iverson, Marbury, Kidd, and Miller on the market, Ainge probably sees the potential to both fill the roster with top-end talent while still putting quality veterans together for a championship squad.

whether or not anything manifests remains to be seen, but making sense of these rumors is as simple as looking at the market and understanding the needs and opportunities inherent therein….

by BillfromBoston on Jun 13, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Coach

I was talking about Ainge’s opportunities for this coming summer not last summer. last summer he clearly did not choose to go the route you would of liked. I’m saying he could be going that same route this summer if he does not move either Ray or Rondo or both as Bill mentioned. If the starting 5 comes back intact, I think we’re looking at some scrubs for the bench again as the MLE will probably be split up and then someone may come in on a veteran minimum deal or on the LLE. What can we get for that kind of money? Ainge will have to get lucky.

by celty86 on Jun 13, 2009 5:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I always chuckle at these claims of fiscal responsibility because there’s no evidence to back them up. Grousbeck has said, on the record, that he had the money available to resign Posey – it was Ainge’s decision not to.

So … if that’s true, and we have no reason to believe that Grousbeck is lying, then Ainge had the money to do a better job on the bench. As Buckner has pointed out above, there were a BUNCH of names who would have helped. Instead, we get Tony Allen’s brain-dead basketball, O’Blount, Darius Miles and two draft picks who don’t play. In the case of Allen, that’s simply throwing money down the toilet that some of you are falling all over yourselves to praise Ainge for saving.

The fiscal argument is merely the “Ainge does no wrong” crowd developing an alibi for his substantial failures last summer. He blew it.

Now, he’s got numerous opportunities to position this club to repeat this summer. The bench players are out there. I don’t fault him for kicking the tires on Ray Allen and Rondo, but I remain wholeheartedly opposed to any deal that doesn’t:

1. Position this team better to win next year. Grousbeck has invested millions in winning now.

2. Does not constitute a rebuild. Ainge’s draft record is spotty, and I am not interested in playing “maybe.” Plus, this team will make a serious title run next year with competent help at the 3 and 5. It would be nothing short of idiotic to short-circuit that.

The other thing that makes me laugh is this “positioning the club for the future” nonsense. Spinning Rondo and Allen for players – Evans, for one – on whom the reviews are decidedly mixed isn’t positioning anything for the future. It’s Danny going cheap again and thinking he’s going to outsmart the league.

How’d O’Bryant work out, Danny?

Jeff said it best last week: Fix the mistake, Ainge.

by CoachBo on Jun 14, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I highly doubt you would have done better

Trusting Ainge does not mean one thinks he will hit on 100% of every move or non-move he makes. It means understanding he has more information and expertise than any poster on this blog. Remember, even Pitino had trouble with GM duties, although he is an outstanding coach. One can be a great coach, and still not master the intricacies of managing personnel in the NBA. It is highly unlikely that any fan here would really have done better. Hindsight is 20/20, TA was a miscalculation? Only if one knew he would hurt his thumb and be out 2 months.

Knowing KG and Powe were going to go down would have been huge too. With BBD, Powe, House and Marbury coming off the pine, reducing Scal to spot minutes, eliminating Moore altogether, and with KG starting, many things would have been different/better. It is easy to pile on now, knowing all the outcomes. Also, DA is entrusted with the coming year, and future years, every off-season. Fans tend to look only at the coming year. Based on outcome, of course DA did not hit a home run, but neither did he strike out. And for a blogger to suggest this, that or the other move that he would have made would have made the difference, is beyond arrogant.

by KJ33 on Jun 14, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

May I sum up for Sir Rants Alot?

Here’s what Jeff said (I think) about getting too excited or down about “rumors”

I would like to use a Bob Dylan 2 line lyric I love from the song "Things have Changed’

Gonna get low down, gonna fly high
All the truth in the world adds up to one big lie

Now think Robert Swift………..hahahahaha

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Jun 13, 2009 11:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well said

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Jun 14, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW ??

Anyone know about Celtics Summer League plans???? Vegas or somewhere else? Thanks – sorry to go off topic -——→

“I used to care but…..Things have Changed”

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Jun 13, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Orlando

cant remember the exact dates, but they are playing in the Orlando Summer league this year

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Jun 14, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rondo...

is a Westphal type ofplayer.

"The voice of the intellect is a soft one, but it does not rest until it has gained a hearing"

by Jeff_Fuller_49 on Jun 14, 2009 2:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

trade????

Reports seem to have Ainge targeting Evans or Rubio. What if, instead, Ainge wanted Kevin Martin and the #4 for Rondo and then drafted Hill from Arizona at #4? First would Sacremento do this? Second does Ainge like Hill? he could be the backup answer next year and a developing four to replace KG when he retires.

by celty86 on Jun 14, 2009 7:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey! Wait a minute!

   Don’t you guys remember what we were when we were healthy? Who had the best start ever in the NBA? What was the Celts record when KG went down. What did we have left at the PF position (and Center) when Powe blew out the knee?

   Also “it takes two to tango”. Deals that y’all liked most probably fell through because the prospective partner (OR HIS WIFE) refused to dance. (Golfing and fishing are not great winter time sports for off-days in Boston).

by Dipper on Jun 14, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fortunately, Danny is looking well beyond next season...

So, expect the following :

1} Ray Allen has already played his final game as a Celtic. His expiring contract {$20M}, his age {34}, his chances of losing his skills overnight at this stage…makes this decision an absolute no-brainer.

2} For the “right price”, they`ll trade Rondo in a heartbeat. Rondo is good and young, but he`s probably as good as he`ll ever be. He`s no Chris Paul, he`ll never be Chris Paul, but he`ll demand Chris Paul money. So, for the right price, the Celts would just as soon be done with this issue altogether.

3} They must “extend” their window, and that can only be done by getting bigger and younger. Compared to big men, guards are a dime-a-dozen. You can have great guards, but you`re not winning a thing in June without big men!

4} If Boston can get the #2 pick, which they`re trying hard to do, they`ll use it on Thabeet. They won`t waste it on any guard, such as Rubio or Evans.

by Title 18 on Jun 14, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

age has a way of creeping on us all

Is it possible that even with the best starting 5 in the league currently, that by next February that could change due to age, potential injury, etc. Even if Ainge adds superior bench help (which I doubt he will do) it still may not be enough to stop father time. Hope I’m wrong on that.

by celty86 on Jun 14, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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