Offseason SWAGs and Reasonable Predictions

The offseason is under way and we've had rumors galore but no real action yet.  That could all change on draft night (June 25) or the first day free agents can negotiate with teams (July 1). Seems like a good time to pull out the SWAGs column.  In the past I've either made these too crazy or too reasonable, so I'm going to just do both this time.

First the fun part...

Part 1: Silly Wild Amusing Guesses

Blockbuster Trade!  Celtics trade Ray Allen and Tony Allen for Antawn Jamison, Mike James, and Etan Thomas.  The Wizards are looking to shed future salary and stay competitive.  In this deal they don't even have to give up the #5 pick.  They would then have a lineup of Arenas, Ray, Butler, Blatche and Haywood (plus whoever they pick up in the draft).  The Celtics get a big man that can space the floor with outside shooting and help Perk and KG with rebounding.  He also gives us a super-sub off the bench and insurance in case KG's injury issues linger.  James and Thomas are expiring deals so anything they give us in terms of depth would be a bonus.

Free Agents: The only issue here is that we're depleted at shooting guard (unless you think JR Giddens is ready to make "the leap").  So I think the Celtics can pick up Anthony Parker for cheap (with House backing him up).  Also, I think they can sign Quinton Ross as a defensive backup to Paul Pierce.  And just for fun, lets say Danny takes a flier on his long standing favorite tatted up center Robert Swift.

At the trade deadline, Ainge can move James and/or Thomas for help wherever there are holes (backup PG? maybe center after Swift goes down with his annual injury?).

Will any of this happen?  Not likely.  So after the jump I make some more reasonable guesses.

Part 2: Reasonable Predictions

Trades:  Lets end the suspense right away.  I predict that Danny Ainge makes no trades involving the starting lineup.  In fact, there's a very good chance that he won't make any trades at all until the trade deadline (where the expiring contracts of Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine might be more valuable.

Draft Night:  That doesn't mean that Ainge will wait till the 58th pick to make a move.  I predict that he'll buy a pick in the late first round or early 2nd.  I'll go a step further and say that he buys the 21st pick from the Hornets and picks up Jeff Teague, a PG from Wake Forest (described by SI as "Talented but raw" with "speed and scoring instincts").

Our Free Agents:  Bank on Leon Powe being back on a make-good contract.  He'll be back ramming it down low by mid season (though he probably won't be full speed till the Spring). 

I'm going to predict that Glen Davis will be back too.  I think he'll be a victim of the market.  The top free agents will find only a few buyers for over the MLE so some of them will have to accept the MLE.  Then guys that normally would take the MLE are going to be left with fewer options.  The trickle down effect means that guys like Big Baby will just have to accept what he can get.  Chances are that will be reasonable enough for us to match.

Other Free Agents:  Having our two headed monster of undersized PFs back is all well and good, but last year proved that we need another big.  I say Antonio McDyess makes the most sense.  I'm not sure what it will take to sign him, but I'll just say that he accepts a split of the MLE.  That would leave us the other portion of the MLE to use on Grant Hill.  The Pistons and Suns are looking to rebuild or shed salary and I think both players would be eager to find a contender to play on for a shot at a ring.

Assuming Pruitt gets cut, that gives us a bench that looks like this:

PG: Teague (House can play minutes here too)
SG: House, Tony Allen, JR Giddens
SF: Hill, Walker
PF: McDyess, Powe
C: Baby

I'm guessing that Ainge can swing a deal at the February deadline offloading Tony and Scal for a backup point guard for the stretch run.

So how did I do?  What do you like better, my SWAGs or my Reasonable Predictions?  Are the SWAGs not silly enough?  Are the predicitons not reasonable enough?  Can you do better?  Tell us how you think the offseason will go.

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