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Offseason SWAGs and Reasonable Predictions

The offseason is under way and we've had rumors galore but no real action yet.  That could all change on draft night (June 25) or the first day free agents can negotiate with teams (July 1). Seems like a good time to pull out the SWAGs column.  In the past I've either made these too crazy or too reasonable, so I'm going to just do both this time.

First the fun part...

Part 1: Silly Wild Amusing Guesses

Blockbuster Trade!  Celtics trade Ray Allen and Tony Allen for Antawn Jamison, Mike James, and Etan Thomas.  The Wizards are looking to shed future salary and stay competitive.  In this deal they don't even have to give up the #5 pick.  They would then have a lineup of Arenas, Ray, Butler, Blatche and Haywood (plus whoever they pick up in the draft).  The Celtics get a big man that can space the floor with outside shooting and help Perk and KG with rebounding.  He also gives us a super-sub off the bench and insurance in case KG's injury issues linger.  James and Thomas are expiring deals so anything they give us in terms of depth would be a bonus.

Free Agents: The only issue here is that we're depleted at shooting guard (unless you think JR Giddens is ready to make "the leap").  So I think the Celtics can pick up Anthony Parker for cheap (with House backing him up).  Also, I think they can sign Quinton Ross as a defensive backup to Paul Pierce.  And just for fun, lets say Danny takes a flier on his long standing favorite tatted up center Robert Swift.

At the trade deadline, Ainge can move James and/or Thomas for help wherever there are holes (backup PG? maybe center after Swift goes down with his annual injury?).

Will any of this happen?  Not likely.  So after the jump I make some more reasonable guesses.

Star-divide

Part 2: Reasonable Predictions

Trades:  Lets end the suspense right away.  I predict that Danny Ainge makes no trades involving the starting lineup.  In fact, there's a very good chance that he won't make any trades at all until the trade deadline (where the expiring contracts of Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine might be more valuable.

Draft Night:  That doesn't mean that Ainge will wait till the 58th pick to make a move.  I predict that he'll buy a pick in the late first round or early 2nd.  I'll go a step further and say that he buys the 21st pick from the Hornets and picks up Jeff Teague, a PG from Wake Forest (described by SI as "Talented but raw" with "speed and scoring instincts").

Our Free Agents:  Bank on Leon Powe being back on a make-good contract.  He'll be back ramming it down low by mid season (though he probably won't be full speed till the Spring). 

I'm going to predict that Glen Davis will be back too.  I think he'll be a victim of the market.  The top free agents will find only a few buyers for over the MLE so some of them will have to accept the MLE.  Then guys that normally would take the MLE are going to be left with fewer options.  The trickle down effect means that guys like Big Baby will just have to accept what he can get.  Chances are that will be reasonable enough for us to match.

Other Free Agents:  Having our two headed monster of undersized PFs back is all well and good, but last year proved that we need another big.  I say Antonio McDyess makes the most sense.  I'm not sure what it will take to sign him, but I'll just say that he accepts a split of the MLE.  That would leave us the other portion of the MLE to use on Grant Hill.  The Pistons and Suns are looking to rebuild or shed salary and I think both players would be eager to find a contender to play on for a shot at a ring.

Assuming Pruitt gets cut, that gives us a bench that looks like this:

PG: Teague (House can play minutes here too)
SG: House, Tony Allen, JR Giddens
SF: Hill, Walker
PF: McDyess, Powe
C: Baby

I'm guessing that Ainge can swing a deal at the February deadline offloading Tony and Scal for a backup point guard for the stretch run.

So how did I do?  What do you like better, my SWAGs or my Reasonable Predictions?  Are the SWAGs not silly enough?  Are the predicitons not reasonable enough?  Can you do better?  Tell us how you think the offseason will go.

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments |

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Comments

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SF

If Walker does not develop as we hope, we will have a 36-yr old Hill backing up a 33-yr old Pierce.

by wincelticswin on Jun 19, 2009 7:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

1. The Celtics can do better than the proposed trade with the Wizards. Jamison is too expensive, and Thomas is damaged goods. He’s not the frontcourt backup that we need.

2. The reasonable predictions are reasonable, except that Anthony Parker isn’t going to play for the minimum. He’s a good player and can easily get more from another team or in Europe.

Problem is, your “reasonable” scenario is unlikely to produce a championship. The Lakers are going to be better. Their young players like Bynum and Farmar have another year of playoff experience, and the team as a whole will have the swagger and confidence that comes from winning a championship.

Cleveland and Orlando won’t stand pat either. Cleveland knows it needs to add more useful size, and has the pieces to make a move, plus developing bigs like JJ Hickson who may play a larger role next year. Orlando will have Jameer Nelson back, plus a maturing Dwight Howard. If they can keep Turkoglu (which they will) they will be tougher next year. Both Cleveland and Orlando also have first round draft choices; the Celtics do not.

So signing McDyess and then treading water for the rest of the offseason isn’t going to get it done.

by Brickowski on Jun 19, 2009 8:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Going to need more than McDyess

Agree with Brickowski on that. I’m expecting something to be done during this draft, whether it be with Phoenix and Amare coming here, or with Washington and Jamison coming. Or, it might just be a deal with a team we’ve heard nothing of yet, possibly Detroit flipping us Rip Hamilton, Kwame, #15 pick for Ray, BBD, Tony Allen.

by Tradetime on Jun 20, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m thinking we need someone who’s either taller or a lot quicker than McDyess.

by no kidding on Jun 19, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

P.O.'d - Charley Rosen article

Anyone read the 1 on 1 article about Jackson vs. Red. Boiled me to no end that Charley is a Celtic hater and really displaces Red’s achievements Even if he tries to down play Jackson’s stature, he more or less rips Red in my opinion…..

I urge many to rebutt this to Charlie

by Ancient Red on Jun 19, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I can see McDyess coming here, and even BBD resigning, though I’m not as certain. But there is no way Teague is playing as the first guy off the bench at the one if all the moves go as planned. Doc will not play a rookie with this team. He’ll play Eddie at the one, and everyone will complain when the second unit has no spacing.

Now, if you’re saying that Teague is drafted due to the expectation of not resigning Rondo, that’s another story. But Teague won’t play, not because he shouldn’t, but because Doc won’t.

Bottom line, that is a terribly weak team upfront, because I cannot see us going into the season with four bigs and that’s it. And the second unit will struggle with Eddie playing the one.

by amenhotep04 on Jun 19, 2009 8:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In the more realistic scenario

you left out Scal. Also, I’m not sure the C’s go into next season without a legitimate 7 foot big guy center coming off the bench. Baby is okay at that position but the frontcourt needs more than just age and more talent at the 4, where they have plenty of talent. They need a real backup center. If the C’s keep both Baby and Powe I see them going after more of a true center with the MLE.

by nickagneta on Jun 19, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And what about Starbury?

Maybe he fills the Sam Cassell 15th man/coach role. I predict he fills the Sam Cassell 15th man/assistant coach role. Ya that would be the dream situation, put that one in the SWAG’s, lol.

by bdm860 on Jun 19, 2009 9:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No scenario involving Marbury staying is a “dream scenario.” It’s more like a nightmare scenario.

by Brickowski on Jun 19, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little worry

about our future. In my opinion the window is obviously open, but we can’t take this season to comfort ourselves considering Garnett’s injury. Remember: we lost both matches with Lakers in regular season and struggled against Cleveland and Orlando. Next season LA could be stronger IF they resign Ariza and Odom, Cleveland has a good cap space to do good operations and all of them will have a 1st round draft pick. I’m a little worry about Pierce and Allen, they struggled too much in PO, maybe we should think they are not as good as last year (odd another season on their shoulder). Garnett come back from a serious injury and, except Rondo e Perkins, we have a very old team.

I’m consideing Wyc recently quotes and i appreciate them beacause i’m scared about the possibility to come back in time at 90’s o difficult 2000’s years. We need to do a first step into the future, maybe with sacrifices, but we need. If we pick McDyess, Hill etc we can be a contender, but wich is the cost? I hope Danny is going to do one, and only ONE, major move: i love Ray more than you may think, but we need to change underskin and take Spurs exemple. We need younger players, we need to build the core of the future Celtics team. This is why i’m a little worry “win now and then we will see” idea.

by Jack_Frost on Jun 19, 2009 9:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Winning culture?

But if you win now, it might be easier to rebuild when the veterans retire. First off, their salary comes off the books and you have ample money to sign free agents. Secondly, like the Patriots, a winning team inspires veteran talent to join it to pursue a championship while they still have some gas in the tank. It won’t land you a superstar, but it can bring in high quality veterans looking for that last shot. The expiring contracts of KG, Allen and Pierce are large enough to sign very high quality players in those years allowing the Celtics to be competitive for a very long time.

by funkstarrdeluxe on Jun 19, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jamison is over the hill and is paid too much and McDyess is done hopefully BBD will be resigned.

"Do you know that nonbelievers create the most positive energy?" Davis said

by Birdbrain on Jun 19, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

McDyess is not done.

Playing 20 min/game he can be a valuable big off the bench. Though no longer explosive he can still knock down an 18 footer. Perfect for Rondo’s drive and kick game.

by njnick on Jun 19, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it’s a small move, but i think getting quinton ross to back up pp could go a long way.

by nazzbo on Jun 19, 2009 9:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

bingo!

Any move that will help keep PP fresh is not a small move. Hated to watch PP so worn out trying to compete. It’s not only the minutes, it’s also that he is so often the focus during play.

by Thruthelookingglass on Jun 19, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reading the SWAGS was depressing...

Reading the “Reasonable Predictions” was even worse!

by Title 18 on Jun 19, 2009 9:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yikes.

Aren’t Silly Wild Amusing Guesses supposed to be good, life affirming things? Allen for Jamison sounds awful.

I’m waiting for Grant Hill or McDyess to SAY they want anything to do with Boston before I commit to emotionally sign on to them being in green. Anything else is like buying a lotto ticket and telling people its a winner before the numbers are drawn. At that point you’re just day dreaming about things that will probably never happen. Man i can’t wait for the draft to be over. I can not wait.

Reporter: About a year ago I asked about the Celtics-Lakers thing and you said you'd really only seen it on TV. Now you've been through it, can you talk about playing the Boston Celtics for the NBA championship?
Kobe: It Sucks.

by indeedproceed on Jun 19, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

SWAGs

I like the idea of Ross. The article on him a few days ago was encouraging. It seems like we may have to do something significant in regards to our bench and if so that probably means moving Ray Allen. If we can compete with LA, Cleve and Orlando with just smaller bench pickups (Ross, GHill, etc.) then I’d say Ray stays. I agree we need a bigger backup center (Pachulia, Gortat). It should be interesting…..

by celty86 on Jun 19, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

so, the consensous is...

not my best work

oh well, there’s always tomorrow, …and the next day, and the next day

someday people will even forgive me for questioning Rondo’s attitude ;)

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Jun 19, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeff, I liked it. You did a good job of keeping our expectations in check. ; ) Also, I take comfort in your prediction that our starters will return.

by Thruthelookingglass on Jun 19, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Danny will end up trading Ray

… at some point this year. Could be any time between now and the trade deadline. It’s just a hunch. I don’t see us shoring up our needs without doing so.

by Mencius on Jun 19, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree 100% (barring a miracle, like signing Sheed for the MLE).

by Brickowski on Jun 19, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Giddens vs Chalmers

Why, oh why, did Danny make that daft draft decision last year to choose JR Giddens over Mario Chalmers? Chalmers starts at PG for the Heat and delivered a solid rookie season performance. The Cs would have had a quality backup PG already in the house and could have focused attention on other areas of need . Does Giddens have that much more upside? Let’s hope that he delivers at SG this year.

by DBrom on Jun 19, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No kidding

Chalmers was money on a national championship team. Granted he won’t ever be an all star but it was pretty obvious that he was going to be a decent NBA player. Giddens had been a screw up his entire college career. Drafting him was dumb. He was drafted because of his height and altheticism with no regard to what kind of a worker he is and if he could you know actually play.

by John70 on Jun 19, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you want to know how you did? If you said something like that to me I would automatically make sure there was a replacement so I could fire you!!! That’s how I feel about your SWAG’s.

I agree there will be no trades for the starters. Now for the bench Quinton Ross cannot back up Pierce because only weight’s 193lb. LeBron weighs 270lbs. and would crush him in a 7 game series. Grant Hill is 6’8" scores 8 pts a game an 3 or 4 rebounds and a couple of ass. a game. He’s not young but he only makes 1.9mil.
 None of us knows how good our youth are, because Doc would not play them. You can not make me beleive Mikki Moore was better than Walker or Stephon was better than Pruitt. Pruitt will never be the player that Stephon was but, he’s was better suited for the team down the strech. What counts is Pruitt knows the plays better and play’s defense better.

We need McDycee at 4 mil he’s 6’9" and plays in the paint and can score. Big Baby is 6’ 7 “1/2 not 6’9”. Did a good job and he deserves some money. But what I dont like is the way he said what he said about the money. Team players dont have that attitude. Some
times you have to take one for the team. I feel that’s not him. P. Perice is a great player but one of the things we love about him is he will take one for the team. That’s what Red was talking about player’s with the team first mind set. Please understand there is not a lot of players around like that….. but everyone can’t be a Celtic.

by tyquinton on Jun 19, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Guys I'd like to see in Green.

Pachulia, McDyess, Grant Hill and/or Matt Barnes. Tyrone Lue. Give me some good bench guys and we got a shot.

by correcttitle on Jun 19, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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