Here We Go - Draft Day Begins
by Jeff Clark on Jun 25, 2009 9:30 AM EDT
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintI woke up with a little extra pep in my step today. It is draft day, which is something like Christmas morning for NBA junkies. The first thing I did after waking up was check the CelticsBlog message boards to make sure that nobody on the Celtics was traded during the night. Instead I found that Shaq had finally been dealt to Cleveland for a salary dump. How does that change the landscape? Does it change any plans that Danny has? I hope not.
I'm still expecting to see something happen tonight. Something none of us has heard about yet. Probably involving Ray Allen. With that said, I hope nothing happens. I just can't envision a major trade that accomplishes the goal of making us better for this year and for the future. Maybe Ainge can. Or maybe he's thinking the same way but will get a phone call with an offer that he just can't refuse tonight. That's what can happen on draft night.
Even before today, we've seen Shaq, Richard Jefferson, Mike Miller, Jamal Crawford, and the 5th pick in the draft trade hands. There's a very good chance we could see Amare Stoudemire, Tracy McGrady, and any one of the top 6 picks moved today. Cleveland is not done dealing. Phoenix is not done dumping. That's pretty exciting stuff to watch play out.
But what does all of this mean for the Celtics? It means we have to keep an eye on the shifting market to find opportunities to make ourselves better. It means that we have to recognize that competitors are making improvements. But it doesn't mean we have to make a drastic move just to keep up. We do have to improve, but it is more important to get the starting lineup healthy and rested for the playoffs next year. That means upgrading the bench.
The safest way to do that is through free agency and by offering the expiring contracts of Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine around the league (perhaps waiting till the trade deadline to do so). These moves won't make for an exciting draft night, but they might make for an exciting NBA Finals. Lest we forget that this team was really, really, really good this year before KG went down. I say lets keep the band together and give them some more firepower off the bench. We can deal with tomorrow tomorrow. I want one more shot at a ring with the current core in tact.
Draft night is a lot of fun for us NBA junkies. I just hope it is pretty boring for Danny and company.
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Missing the Boat
Let me start off by saying that so far Ainge has completely missed the boat this offseason. He has not improved the team, and he has risked alienating his young point guard while at the same time devauing him in the trade market.
Cleveland just got bigger and better. Orlando will resign Hedo and likely make a move to get better. Someone will get Rubio, and we better hope it isn’t the Knicks, because barring injury, Rubio is the next Jason Kidd. In fact, he’s more exciting to watch than Kidd.
Meanwhile Ainge sits back and does nothing. The team is undersized relative to the competition and has a weak bench. Does Ainge think that he can fill out his roster with free agent dregs like Mikki Moore and Stephon Marbury and win a championship? I don’t. And why would free agents want to come to Boston instead of Cleveland or Orlando? They have the MLE too.
He doesn’t need to move Rondo, but he does need to move Ray Allen to add depth and/or size. And he needs to do it now, not at the trading deadline when a roster shuffle may adversely affect team chemistry.
if you can find an upgrade for Ray, sure
but you don’t move him just to add “depth and/or size” (in my opinion)
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
You aren’t going to find an “upgrade” to Ray. What you will find is players who fill holes, and this roster has plenty of them. Doc Rivers identified exactly what those holes were several weeks ago.
I’ll tell you one more thing, with Shaq going to Cleveland, they had better resign Glenn Davis because they will need as much beef as they can get to go up against the Cavs.
Why niot Ray Allen for Shaq? That’s better than what Phoenix got, and it would have made the Celtics a lock for the EC championship. As Shaq’s deal is expiring so the cost would have been negligible.
Quite frankly, Ray disappeared against Orlando. He was outplayed by JJ Reddick. It’s time to trade him.
disagree completely
a. if you can’t upgrade Ray, why deal him? because he had a bad series against Orlando? how about the fact that we won the Bulls series because of him?
Phoenix wanted a cash dump and they can get cash savings NOW with Wallace retiring and cutting Sasha. For what they want, they got a MUCH better deal than Ray Allen.c. you don’t trade a clutch shooter, team leader, and savvy vet like Allen just to “fill holes” – if you deal him, it better be for someone that helps us now (especially considering how attractive his contract will be to some teams)
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
by Jeff Clark on Jun 25, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So, if Ainge had traded Ray Allen for Wallace, Pavlovic and a second rounder you would have thought it was a good deal?
If Phoenix had wanted to save more money Celtics management could have ponied up the full 3 million dollars that a team is allowed to include in a trade.
And Wallace’s retirement is irrelevant. They still have to pay him— contracts in the NBA are guaranteed. And luxury tax isn’t an issue, since the Suns are 8 million under the threshold as it is.
we aren’t the Suns, our goals are different – your question is pretty silly
from what I understand, Sasha’s deal is only partly guaranteed, so they save cap space right away – also I think Wallace might be open to a buyout
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
So? Ray might also be open to a buyout.
Let’s do the math.
Shaq makes 20M
Ray Allen costs the Suns $19,766.860, but the Ce;ltics throw in 3M in cash. So the net plus for the Suns is 3.23 million AND they get a good player with an expiring contract who might help them win a few games next year.
Ben Wallace makes 14M, Pavlovik makes 4,950,000 and the Cavs threw in 500K in cash. This only saves the Suns 1.5 million.
I don’t know the status of Pavlovic’s contract. How much is the partial guarantee? Let’s assume half is guaranteed. That saves the Suns about 800K more than the offer of Ray Allen and 3M. But it leaves them a player short with another roster spot to fill, and they will have to pay something to the player who fills that spot.
So the savings to Phoenix are negligible at best by taking the Cleveland package over the hypothetical Boston package.
Probably the right answer is that Wyc Grousbeck, et. al. were unwilling to fork over the 3M.
I was told there would be no math
Sasha is only guaranteed 1.5M
here’s what Ball Don’t Lie said about this:
As you’ve probably heard, Pavlovic’s contract is only partially guaranteed for next season. So while the Cavs were able to use the full amount of his deal to make salaries match for trading purposes, the Suns will only be on the hook for about $1.5 million of his potentially-$5 million deal next season.
Toss in the disparity between Wallace’s contract and the money owed O’Neal next year (about $21 million), the cash sent Phoenix’s way ($500,000), and the luxury tax savings? The Suns get a payroll break that dives well into eight figures.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
hey, maybe you are right
maybe Wyc is diving into his piles of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck and not allowing Ainge to spend money (despite writing the check for the luxury tax last year)
maybe Danny is an incompetent idiot that stumbled his way into trading for Ray and KG and winning a title
maybe Ray is all washed up and worth only a few spare parts
maybe
but I think not
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
No, You Don't
So if Pavlovic is only guaranteed 1.5 million, the Cleveland deal is 1.8 million better for Phoenix than what Boston could have offered. That’s all. And to realize those savings, the Suns have to waive Pavlovic and pay for someone else to fill that roster spot.
And luxury tax is not as issue; the Suns’ payroll was only at 62 million, even with Shaq. Ball Don’t Lie is wrong about that. The savings is nowhere near eight figures, because there is 20 million going out, and at least 15.5 million coming in. That’s 4.5 million, with another 500k coming in cash.
And for the 2 million they save (as opposed to what the Celtics could have offered, they’ll never get a player as good as Ray Allen— or even one as good as Pavlovic.
At some point the Suns will have to figure out how to put fannies in the seats— without Shaq, without Amare (on his way to Houston) and without Nash, because Nash will be the next to go. In fact, he’ll demand a trade.
The Money
Shaq = $21 million
Big Ben + Pavlovic = $18.75 million ($14mil for Ben, 4.75mil for Sasha)
That’s $2.25 million straight away.
Only $1.5 million of Pavlovic’s deal is guaranteed, so the Suns save another $3.25 million there.
We’re now up to $5.5 million.
The Suns have about $79 million on their cap after they pay their draft pick and add some minimum contracts. That leaves them close to $10 million over the luxury tax threshold.
Therefore, that $5.5 million is luxury tax savings, doubling up and becomes $11 million. Plus the $500k.
And if Ben Wallace takes $2mil or so less on his buyout, the Suns will save some more money. They could save somewhere around $15 million when all is said and done.
Quick edit, posted it by accident
That leaves them close to $10 million over the luxury tax threshold.That leaves them close to $10 million over the expected luxury tax threshold of $69.4 million (the figure in Stern’s memo at midseason).
bottom line
I don’t care
they made the trade, we didn’t
I’m happy about that, you can feel how you like
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Phoenix is at 62 million as of 7/1/09
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm
That’s 7-8 million below the luxury tax threshhold. The 79 million number must refer to last year, and in any event it was only 75 million.
Hoopshype isn’t including Nash’s $13 million. That’s why the Suns are at $62 million there.
So we’re up to $75 million now.
- Two other smaller differences, Admunson is also not included, and Shaq is on the books for $1mil more in Sham Sports. That takes the Suns up to $77 million.
- The #14 draft pick will cost another $1.5-1.8 million.
- At that point the Suns would have had only 11 players on the roster, so they need at least two more. That’s a minimum of $950k for rookie minimum contracts, or $1.6mil if they sign veterans to minimum contracts.
That’s where the $79 million estimate came from.
Yes I See That Now
But let’s see if they move Amare and Barbosa— or Nash for that matter.
your arguement makes no sense whatsoever
everyone that’s been traded this offseason has been for partially guaranteed contracts or potentially retiring players. we don’t have any of those. the free agency period hasn’t even begun, and we have no draft picks.
just stop talking. with every passing statement you sound less and less qualifed. if you don’t like what danny ainge has done to the team, feel free to call chris wallace and invite him back to the job. i’m sure we’d win alot more.
a little early
It’s a little early to be saying Danny’s missed the boat. the Finals ended just last week and the draft hasn’t happened yet.
If we go into training camp without any significant improvements to the bench, then I’d agree he’s missed the boat but I just can’t see him pulling another complete swing-and-miss this offseason. He knows he can’t stand pat like last year and the FA crop is definitely better than last year.
I agree but not completely
Why?
1) I think we make a big mistake thinking we are the better team in the league. We are not. WE HAVE TO LEARN FROM THE PAST SEASON. PP and RA struggled in the last playoff, they are not the big star they were, not anymore. Kg also struggled before the injury (please remember against Gasol or simply against Lopez)… but of course he is a terrific player. I don’t wanna say we have a poor team, i’m not foolish, we have a great team. But please, don’t overrated it. Cleveland is now looking for Vince Carter, Lakers this years won Celtics two times, Orlando it’s at our level or so
2) In my opinion we need one big move (maybe trading Ray) to make our starting five younger, and a big man (free agent) behind Perk and KG.
This is my opinion, but anyway i’ll always be proud of this guys
Rubio is a bust.
and Rondo is fine with some constructive criticism. He’s a big boy. I do agree about moving Ray but, in no way would have anything to do with an old weathered out Shaq and Hedo… haha
"Do you know that nonbelievers create the most positive energy?" Davis said
Hyperbole, is it necessary?
To say DA has completely missed the boat is nothing but hyperbole, unless you have confused a boat with a skift or a canoe. In all seriousness how can he be judged prior to the draft, and prior to the FA signing period. I know trades have happened but how good where these trades???
SA traded their big man depth for a guy who could be good for their system but his numbers have been decreasing throughout the past couple years as he has turned into a spot up jump shooter rather than a guy that gets in the lane. Although, I think this will be rejuvenating for Ginobli, Duncan and Jeff.
CLE traded Sasha for Shaq, which seems to be a good deal and probably is a net positive. But I do not think it is a huge net positive. Shaq does give them a body to bang with, but what is left in that tank? Moreover, he slows down their style of play, which imo is not a good thing since they have the best fast break player in the league. And in doing so they gave up their only real back up wing player. Now their front court/wing consists of 3 tweener guards and the MVP.
WASH shedded some salary but what of value did they bring in? Miller is washed up and Foye was an epic McHale blunder. He may be a good role player, but he certainly isn’t a star. Plus Washington gave up a lottery pick to bring back mediocrity.
ATL traded for Crawford. That hardly makes that team any more viable. Crawford failed as a PG under Nelly and he plays the same position as the Hawks star player. He hardly fits in there, especially since they have bigger holes than back court depth.
This is a text book knee jerk reaction. But I agree with you on two points. First, I can’t understand the reasoning behind going to the media about Rondo. It lowers his trade value and potentially alienates him. The only reasoning I can come up with is the FO has some haphazard plan to devalue him to other teams to increase their chance of signing him to an extension after the season.
Second, he doesn’t have to move Rondo but he has to trade Ray. If Ray can fetch them a net positive (a solid veteran backup big/pg/wing and a 2 that can spread the floor) then you have to do it. The only reason for moving Rondo is if you do not want to resign him after the season, or do not think you can meet his demands. Then you should trade him b/c his value is at it’s peak and you can get something in return, rather than nothing.
Trade 'em!
Send Rondo to Memphis for Gay/Conley & Then trade Allen to CHI for Hinrich & fillers/picks. Start PP @ the 2, Gay @ 3 & give Conley playing time so he can develop. (in my opinion)
no thanks
if the team’s goal is a championship this year, at it should be, no starters should require “development”. Rondo needs to improve his game, but he’s no project like Conley.
PP’s days as a SG are behind him. He’s best suited for SF at this point in his career.
Championship
Just give the cavs the championship now, this season is over.
Trading Rondo
Would be totally moronic…the kid is brilliant and is only going to get better.
They’d absolutely need to replace him with a top shelf PG and I’m not sure that’s possible.
Dangling him out there like Ainge has done is a little strange, IMO.
I sense something coming down the track.
As far as CHAMPIONSHIP for the CAVS, um…no, I don’t think so.
Shaq, while motivated, is pretty old and slow now.
He’ll present challenges for Perk to be sure, but challenges Perk can meet and overcome.
Now that Shaq is back in the East and Howard has gone nowhere, Perk is cemented at the center spot for the green I think…
The more I think about it, the more I think if anyone, it’ll be RAY ALLEN who’s getting gone today.
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk
Two Ways to Look at It
We make a trade now, a two for one, or even better, a three for one, where the Green gets one high quality player plus two more regular contributors for rondo and then we fill in the gaps with free agents OR we sign a free agent or two and then fill in the gaps with a trade. The rondo thing isn’t over, especially when trading him might land us a big, a 2-3 and a pg.
by Black Jack Pershing on Jun 25, 2009 8:22 AM EDT reply actions
Pinckney & Kleine
While Ainge is no doubt focused on winning #18, I will be curious to see how much he is motivated by trying to transition the team to the post-KG era. Obviously, Ainge was traded from the celtics in part to prolong the careers and championship caliber play of the original big three. The Cs did enjoy a brief renaissance during the 1990-91 season, but that had little to do with who they got for Ainge, namely pinckney and kleine, and more with gamble, lewis, and shaw. In any event, the renaissance lasted less than half a season, proving that keeping a team at the top as stars get old is VERY, VERY difficult.
by Black Jack Pershing on Jun 25, 2009 8:30 AM EDT reply actions
The Pungent Quote
“I lived it. I was there,” said Ainge. “In 1988, I sensed that the era was over. Larry had two Achilles’ heel injuries. Kevin (McHale) had a bad back and screws in his foot. And Robert (Parish) was nearing the end.” "The funny thing was that at Christmas Party in 1988, I remember talking to Red, with Larry and Kevin right there, saying ‘Why don’t you make this deal for Larry? Why don’t you make that deal for Kevin?’ " recalled Ainge. "I even brought up my name. 6/24/09 EAGLETRIB
by Black Jack Pershing on Jun 25, 2009 8:33 AM EDT reply actions
Whoa
I missed this line:
Ainge is looking at 2009 as 1988.
by Black Jack Pershing on Jun 25, 2009 8:38 AM EDT reply actions
Crazy conspiracy theory.
Look, I love Rondo more than any of you. But here’s a crazy idea: if Ainge and management don’t have any intentions of signing Rondo after 09/10, then they can shop his name around as much as they want just to test the waters…if he can get something crazy because a team is willing to get a young, cheap player, then maybe Danny takes the offer. Ainge and Doc start leaking little things to the press and rumors start flying about potentially moving Rondo, which clearly will upset him and his agent. Rondo is obviously the type of guy that will move elsewhere not only for the money but to a place where he is wanted and he feels he is trusted. Rondo then goes into this season knowing he is going to move on after 09/10— meaning he is in a contract year. In a contract year, for a cocky guy that knows he’s worth some money in this league, he will play out of his mind and do whatever he can to boost his real estate even more— another title, phenomenal play, etc. If he boosts his resume even more, he’ll get an even bigger payday. Maybe, just maybe, this is the kick in the ass Ainge wants to give Rondo to make him focus, play night in and night out, which is what Ainge’s biggest problem with Rondo and where Danny feels he needs to mature.
And maybe after next year they’ll think about making him an offer, but that might be too little too late… But then again, maybe Ainge only sees Rondo has part of the picture for 2009 and no more.
As much as I love Rondo, I’d rather see banner #18 raised than #9 handling the ball.
http://loscy.wordpress.com/
Lakers/Celtics
A couple of more thoughts on 1988/2009 viewed through the lens of Lakers-Celtics. The Lakers are a good franchise, most Celtics fans are forced to admit this now. They got bulldozed by us last year, got up and punched us in the nose this year. I doubt that Ainge hates the Ls as much as McHale and some of the other 86ers, but he definitely understands the competition. For the sake of argument, say Ainge got gay and Hasheem Thabeet, and Thabeet is a 10-12 minute guy, but those 10-12 minutes are good minutes. I say those two additions, plus having conley to back up marbuy (controversial, I know) shifts the balance of power back to us for the foreseeable future. Right now, its close. The Lakers probably have a slight edge heading into next season, pending off season moves. But if the Cs can get younger and better, and they add a kid who is a big brute, the cs own the advantage for a good three years, assuming kg’s health.
by Black Jack Pershing on Jun 25, 2009 8:44 AM EDT reply actions
On Missing the Boat
Hey Brick, I think we all can agree that the team needs an upgrade, particularly to its bench. But that won’t happen as a practical matter until the free agency period signing begins on July 8. If the Celts can resign BBD, add someone like Zaza under the MLE, like Hill under the LLE or vet minimum, and even Marbury as the pg backup, who I would expect to be much better with a full training camp, then have they done enough to effectively complete with the Cavs, Magic and Lakers? I think so. That’s not counting what they might do something their Scal and TA expiring contracts, which they might wish not to use until they see what free agency can bring,
Hey Jeff, stop trying to get Ray shipped out of town!
Power of positive thinking, man.
by The Walker Wiggle on Jun 25, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions
Bad Expiring Contracts
All the other teams that are doing salary dumps are receiving the expiring contracts of bad players. There is no reason to trade Ray in a salary dump because he is already better than the good player with the bad contract we would probably get back. What we do need to do is trade Giddens, Pruitt, Scal, and Tony. If we are planning on doing this we will need to buy a draft pick to help fill out the roster.
Do the Memphis deal....
….and go get Birdman!
“Championship!”…..
…….says the guy who is drafting TJ Housemazily!
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