Rajon Rondo...an attempt at a rational, objective evaluation of the player
Okay, so I am a huge Rondo shill and always have been because I just see unlimited potential and always have. But let's see if I, one of the bigger Rondo fans that sees everything through Green colored glasses when it comes to Rondo, can look at things objectively.
Rondo's assets:
- The man is in unreal physical condition and obviously, from looking at him, takes pride in this. To me, that is huge. Having a basketball player that is also an athlete and keeps themselves in peak physical condition is a plus in my book.
- Could he have a better body type for someone who is going to handle the ball for you on offense? Long arms, huge hands. Great elevation on the jump. Fast and quick.
- He might be one of the fastest people on the planet while dribbling a basketball. He is an possession of a great first step and explosive speed and when he gets into the open floor is a jet.
- His ball handling skills are exceptional though his cross over move leaves something to be desired
- His passing skills are great and he is not in love with just passing the ball through the air. He is one of the better bounce passers, for a PG, in the league
- He has all the skills to be a great defender, which is different than saying he is a great defender.
- He is fearless going to the basket, almost to a fault.
- Simply put, he is one of the best rebounding guards in the league and has enhanced numbers here because Doc Rivers, at least during the playoffs, utilized him in the defensive sets to back off his men and wander around the free throw line. He would then use his speed and jumping ability to make a fast move to get defensive rebounds and start fast breaks.
- He has a confidence and take charge personality that will eventually translate into being a great floor general.
- He plays better the better the competition. Against the best PGs in the league, he is seldom outplayed.
Now his liabilities:
- The shot is awful. His release point is all over the place and he is constantly putting way too much left hand into the shot as evidenced by just how far off the shot can be left to right. Practice and good coaching can change this but it will take a while and this alone will keep him from being a top three PG in this league. When he can consistently hit 42% or more of his jump shots and hit 75% or more of his FTs, then we can think about putting him in the Deron, Paul, and eventually, Rose category.
- As stated above, he plays to the level of his competition. He should dominate lesser PGs and yet doesn't. He needs to bring the consistency every game, every minute.
- The above problem goes to a lack of mental preparation and readiness that I hate. He is, however, just 23 years old and this can be chalked up to a lack of maturity but I hope and pray it is not an inherent flaw in his personality.
- The above also needs to call into question his confidence which, could also be a personality flaw of hubris and arrogance. Many times these things can lead to a lack of motivation and a lack of needing to improve and practice and to take things as seriously as they need be taken. It can also lead to an inability to get along with others and to take orders and criticism, whether it be constructive or not. This, unfortunately, does appear to be a character flaw of his. Let's hope he can look in the mirror and change this. Often adversity can change this in a person. All too often, people like this never change and never reach their full potential. It can, once again, be chalked up to immaturity, but in this case, I don't think it is.
- He is weak on his left hand when going to the basket. He often correctly figures that going to the left side of the basket is the correct move but too often, well, almost always, relies on a right hand lay in with spin rather than a left hand lay in. This, though not a major problem, should be worked on.
- He still, way too often for my taste, leaves his feet not knowing what he is going to do with the ball.
- His confidence in his abilities often leads to his forcing way too many passes that just are not there. What is terrible about this flaw in his game is that his confidence is often soaring when the team is up and these forces come at a time when simpler plays would lead to points. This often causes turnovers and allowing teams back into games. This is a bigger problem than I think a lot of people think.
- His defensive intensity and his consistency in bringing it sucks. As I said above, he has all the skills to be a great defender, but this year, all too often was a huge liability on defense in the half court set. I want to stipulate the half court set because I think his pressure during full court presses, his defense on in bounds passes, his defense on half court traps, and his pressuring of the ball up the floor are great. But most defense is played in the half court and his defense fighting through the pick and roll and his lack of concentration on his assignment and more on other issues(playing passing lanes, trying to help down, looking to rebound a possible shot) lead him astray and allows his men to take advantage of him. His gambling on knock aways and lack of effort in keeping men in front of him and reliance on the big man help is simply atrocious.
- He lacks a professionalism that comes with either maturity or character. I don't know which he is lacking. But consistency, reliability, tardiness, and keeping one's head in pressure situations are a part of this. I say he grows into being a great professional but right now it is hurting him and his game.
- He allows his emotions to get the best of him and appears to have trouble controlling his temper. Don't get me wrong he isn't an emotional basket case ala Big Baby. He just has a problem with certain emotions like anger and frustration. Again, I hope it is maturity but it could be a character flaw.
- He leaves his feet going to the basket way too far from the basket and it forces him to take that God awful floater that he just can't hit consistently. It is a much tougher shot than it looks, especially when taking it at the speeds he is often taking it. I think he should either spend an entire summer working on just this shot or take it out of his game completely. Working on pulling up off the dribble and shooting from within 15 feet would probably be a more reliable weapon as he can get to where he wants and often has the ability to out jump his competition.
I hope I covered everything and speculated on as little as possible. I am not going to speculate on such things as why he ate what when he did or why he showed up a half hour late or why he fought with a certain coach or player. I observed and made my determinations based on what I saw in his game.
I think it is irresponsible for any of us to speculate as to what Danny's, KG's, Doc's, or anyone else's feelings are on him, especially from just a one or two sentence quote from a coach or player or manager that might be about a certain subject and not specifically on their total evaluation of Rondo. Too often that type of stuff is more about the moment and not about the person as a whole.
All that given, the fact that we basically have him in our control at a controlled price for the next year or two is huge as, for what he is going to be making in that time, he is a bargain. The tricky part comes in determining whether his non basketball issues that impact his game are maturity problems or character flaws. If maturity, we should see a bunch of that disappear this year as he will be 24 and into his 4th year in the league. The fourth year is often the year that stars will blossom in. So, we will see.
If it appears that Rondo's issues aren't a maturity issue then Danny is going to have a problem deciding whether, in a Manny Ramirez type situation, his contributions outweigh his attitudinal problems and whether he will be worth the big investment. If they are, then next year would seem like a great time to move him. Moving him sooner without having these questions answered while still having him under contractual control for light money, is just dumb.
People can say he shouldn't be untouchable but to have him in control at minor money and not be 100% certain as to where his game is going to go over the next year or two is just stupid. For this off season at least, he should not even be thought about being traded. It is way too big a risk to possibly trade away one of the future best PGs in the league when you have them playing for just $2 million for the next year and maybe $3 million the year after that while not being 10000% sure that his liabilities can't be corrected.
Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.
9 recs |
31 comments
Comments
Nice job, nick.
Great effort at showing both sides of Rondo. He’s not a polished, finished product, but he’s getting their rapidly.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
by Roy_Hobbs on Jun 6, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent piece of work showing the substantial pros and the substantial cons, Nick, the latter all fixable, in my view.
by CoachBo on Jun 6, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great article Nick! The good definitely outweighs the bad and his liabilities can be overcome with some hard work and experience.
Perk and Powe... the Next Big Thing
by FLCeltsFan on Jun 6, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good work Nick
Pretty balanced assessment.
Lets hope he figures it all out and becomes the complete package we’d all love to see.
by redzdeadbabyredzdead on Jun 6, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes consider trading Rondo
Trading Rondo for peanuts is silly considering the contracts unless for some reason that peanut contract matches another peanut contract like a Rose from the Bulls or Durrant. I’m not saying those guys are available, just making a point.
Secondly, if Rondo, added with Ray Allen were to bring Bosh in a 3 way trade where he would sign an extension with us, a la KG, I’d do it in a heartbeat. I’d also do the Amare deal if that one had legs and pick up Andre Miller as a free agent pg, plus a lot of pg around the #14 to choose from. Obviously that deal is a no go from recent news events. But yes, Rondo should be in the trade conversation if it brings us a Bosh (who will be moved for sure since he will opt out for free agentcy) or an Amare. I’d do Big Al for Rondo too, not that Al is on the trading block.
To not discuss Rondo and treat him as an untouchable does not make sense if the “right deal” is out there.
by brianceltfan on Jun 6, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How long has it taken us to find a point guard?
15 years? 18 years? He’s 23. Shown flashes of being able to dominate a game. And is the most creative on the fly passer in this game not named Chris Paul. If Point Guard and Center are the two hardest positions to fill in the NBA, then Danny would be an absolute moron to trade the best point guard this team has seen in two decades.
Thankfully Danny isn’t that dumb. After all, when he started assembling this team the first thing he did, over and over again, was search for floor general until he found Rondo.
An unhealthy team loses in the second round of the playoffs without its defensive anchor and best big, and its 6th man, and we want to blow the whole thing up. After watching the ECF, fully healthy, we would be in the finals again.
by kingtutts on Jun 6, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Finally some sanity...
I couldn’t agree more Kingtutts. Rondo is absolutely untradeable in my opinion. He is too young, too talented, and can take over a game at will. I think the points made on his flaws are greatly exaggerated, and they are somewhat baseless. We don’t know what Doc is asking of him at any given moment. If he develops a solid jump shot, WATCH OUT! Yes, great idea, let’s trade a player that we pay next to nothing for before he reaches his full all-star potential. He will reach this, by the way. He is way more valuable to this team than than any of his stats can ever show. He single handedly won and dominated game 6 against the Lakers. He played at an insane level in this years playoffs. I would cease following the Celts if he was traded, period.
by B-ball on Jun 6, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely Untradeable
While the list of con’s may open people’s eyes, Rondo is still no doubt a valuable commodity that the Celtics have not had in decades. He has the potential to be the centerpiece of this team and can have this whole unit molded around him once his maturity starts increasing over time.
by Justin_Bobo on Jun 15, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another liability on Rondo is his lack of recognition of game tempo. Once he learns WHEN to take risks and WHEN to play within the normal flow of the game, he will make the team significantly better.
by vwoodruff on Jun 6, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
When you have a young athlete who has physical skills and desire, that is half of the equation. When you have teachers like Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge, who know how it is done, there is a very huge upside.
Remember a guy the Celtics once had – a guy by the name of Chauncey Billups? He was traded by some idiot (I can’t even say his name) before his potential was met, and he led a few teams to championships.
I think Danny and Doc know what they have, and there are also some great role models on this team that know what it takes to be great. Doc has invested too much time and energy to trade him at this point. It’s not just the money. Rondo is being taught how to play the game and survive in the NBA for a long time
by johnnymost on Jun 6, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
revisionist history
There’s no way Billups was going to make it in Boston and anyone who thinks differently is fooling themselves. It took Billups 5 years and 5 teams to get his act together——and that was a #3 pick. He wouldn’t have lasted in Boston past his rookie year. Any doubts? Look at how fast everyone jumped on Gerald Green, Pruitt and Giddens. All much lower picks with lower expectations and many people were ready to kick them to the curb after their rookie or 2nd years.
Moving him for Kenny Anderson wasn’t a bad trade for the C’s at all. That team needed an experienced PG and that’s what they got.
by slamtheking on Jun 7, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Justifying any Pitino trade...
Is the ultimate example of revisionist history…
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Jun 7, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is a 0.1% chance that the Celtics trade Rondo. The 0.1% represents the likelihood the Celtics would get Chris Paul or Deron Williams in return.
by vwoodruff on Jun 6, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right on.
A great look at Rondo. I’d argue he’s a top 5 point guard in the league because of all of the myriad of skills he has. Athletically, he is a gifted point guard whose on the court vision has improved. I want to chalk up the ineptitude of his play to the fact that he’s 23— the maturation for Perk has taken some time… but it’s there. It took even longer for Pierce, but it’s there. Rondo will get there too… it is way too soon to say his attitude won’t improve. Part of his confidence and swagger is also the same reason he is capable on the court: the dude truly believes he is better than most other point guards int he league and so when he plays against a Tony Parker or a Devin Harris or a Chris Paul, he’s get a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove.
I want to see him sign something in the 5yr, $72 million range but I know that probably won’t happen…
http://loscy.wordpress.com/
by jontookem on Jun 6, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice Write-Up Nick
Nice job of acknowledging that a person’s strengths can also be his weaknesses as well.
My point of contention is that I fail to see why any of this has to do with not trading him. Couldn’t we make the argument that currently he is at his highest value for trade? When we drafted Lenny Bias, pretty much everyone knew that McHale was going to be moved. He would have netted us a pretty good future. Of course, with Bias’s death, Kevin retired a Celtic. But at the time Kevin was only around 27.
I like Rondo. He was a huge steal of the draft, and I was totally pumped the night of that draft when we got him. To me however, winning goes beyond one championship. If a trade can be made that can better secure the future and the present, then it should be done. I am not saying he should be traded. Just that it would not surprise me to see him or anyone else on the team traded. If Danny believes Rondo’s value is higher now, then you go for it.
by amenhotep04 on Jun 6, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nevertheless....
the starting point guard of a team that goes two 60+ wins seasons, one nba championship…the upside is obviously more than the liabilities… and as long as kg is there to kick everyone’s ass to work and practice there should not be a problem
by hiro on Jun 6, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good write-up on a very good player. what also irks me is how he often lets the ball roll up court without possessing it when there is no necessity to save time on the clock. also when he does his behind the back show off move when no one is covering him- when we don’t need tricky dribbles. too many reach ins on d and ole defense. but then he takes over games and amazes.
by nazzbo on Jun 6, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Two excellent points, nazz
-sw
"I didn't go there with the intentions of getting ejected. I went there with the intentions of just telling Kobe, 'You got to relax. You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?'" -Ron Artest, 05.06.09
by Steve Weinman on Jun 7, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
completely agree
the rolling the ball up the court stunt aggravates the hell out of me. He almost had it stolen in the playoffs too.
by slamtheking on Jun 7, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great read
And if this is from a self professed rondo lover I want none of it.
What Rondo does really well are luxuries for PGs. That’s what makes him enticing. But, his jump shot is terrible.
Here is my point. Rondo’s weakness as a shooter is so pronounced that it negates the rebounding and other stuff he does so well. I
Why isn’t he a better shooter? It’s 3 years in the league, and we have only seen scant improvement. That is a skill that he should have as a PG, and he doesn’t seem to put the time in.
Tardiness, lack of game development, and at times a lack of energy and focus or bigtime red flags for me if we are talking about giving him $10 million a year.
As long as we have the Big 3, Rondo’s unique talents are needed. The minute we need him to move up to replace the Big 3, I don’t think he has shown the scoring ability and the consistency with energy that is needed.
Rondo is an offensively challenged basketball player. He isn’t a great finisher at the rim. For a guy who is often left unguarded, he struggles to score.
I agree with everything the above post said. The problem I see in the post is the magnitude of some weaknesses. Shooting and scoring is fundamental for a PG. Rondo averaged 12 ppg this season.
We would have won 60 games with any average NBA point guard the last two years. Jose Calderon, Rafer Alston….probably win the title anyway. Do we really think if we had Rafer Alston we wouldn’t have won the title last year or won 60 this year?
Rondo is a unique player and I like him.
The moment he costs us a significant portion of the cap, however, he becomes overrated.
by jfs1000 on Jun 6, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Having some trouble with some of what you say here.
First off John Stockton averaged 13.1 PPG for his whole career and about 7 PPG on 47% FG% his first 3 years. Is he not a fundamental PG? He finally started hitting three’s and shooting better by his 4th through 6th years but he was never a scoring machine and only considered a good shooter later on in his years.
Magic Johnson was an atrocious outside shooter for a very long part of his career. Tony Parker didn’t start showing consistency and a decent shot until his fourth year. Jason Kidd still is not a good shooter. Nash wasn’t very good at shooting his first few years and didn’t blossom until his 5th season. Are these guys not fundamental PGs?
Also, in January Rondo’s eFG% for inside shots was over 70% I think he finished in the mid to high 60’s. At the time in January he had the second highest eFG% in the league behind LeBron and was easily the best finishing guard in the league at the time. It is incorrect to call Rondo not a great finisher because simply put, he is.
by nickagneta on Jun 6, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stockton was a much better shooter than Rondo
I love Rondo, too. But John Stockton was always a good shooter in the NBA. He averaged 21 points on 58% shooting his senior year at Gozaga.
by PISTOL PETE on Jun 8, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing write up; but now let's think objectively about the Celtics
Moving him sooner without having these questions answered while still having him under contractual control for light money, is just dumb.
Unfortunately, this is the last offseason that the Celtics have to make a decision on this. You wrote that the Celtics could have Rondo at “maybe $3 million the year after that” but I’m not sure how that’s going to happen. If Rondo hits the open market as a restricted free agent next offseason, he will be the best available point guard and will see some major (and close to max) offers. He isn’t going to be in a Ben Gordon situation in which he just can’t find any serious suitors.
The way I look at it is this: if Ainge can lure some legit free agents here for cheap contracts or if the owners decide to let Danny have more money to work with, then that should fix our bench problems and trading Rondo is almost a moot point. Or maybe Bill Walker and JR Giddens actually develop into guys who can play 15 – 20 minutes a game on a winning basketball squad. Or maybe Rondo really believes in Ubuntu and takes a hometown discount.
But if none of those things look likely, then something has to change. The Big Three can not keep playing big minutes. While most people focus on Kevin Garnett’s injury, it’s not like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce were looking like they had much left in their legs in the playoffs. I think that the Celtics have to do something about their bench or else the question won’t be if the Big Three get banged up but when will it happen and for how long? Now that doesn’t mean trade Rondo for something similar to the Rodney Rogers rental (or Larry Anderson, for Sox fans).
Is dealing Rondo the first option? No, but I think everything has to be on the table if the Celtic are truly committed to making a real run at it in 2010 and 2011.
The Hangover @ www.soulhonky.com
by SoulHonky on Jun 7, 2009 12:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Most decorated point guard available, perhaps. But unless he fills in some of the gaps in his game, I wonder about best.
I agree with you: The simplest path is for Wyc to open the checkbook so we can add a competent 3 and a competent 5, and keep leaning on Rondo. The problem is, it can be hard at times to convince a player with an ego that he needs to improve. We’re going to know quickly, I suspect, in the fall whether Rondo has addressed the shooting, effort and lazy defense problems that plague his game. He’s got the skills to address all of them.
The question is, does he think he needs to? Clearly, several posters on this blog don’t.
by CoachBo on Jun 7, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's Steve Nash and Rondo.
After those two, you’re talking about Rafer Alston, Kyle Lowry, Roger Mason Jr., Sergio Rodriguez, Steve Blake, Chris Duhon, Luke Ridnour, etc. As for Nash, he’s still very good but his lack of defense and age makes him a less attractive free agent than Rondo.
As for the bench, I hope he realizes we need to add to it. If not, iI think t’s going to be another season of “What if’s”.
The Hangover @ www.soulhonky.com
by SoulHonky on Jun 7, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really good write up and good posts
To Nick I would say, Nice Job. But if you have young kids, remember, the glass is always half full, not half empty. Your negatives were studied and I can’t disagree with any but I don’t think they deserve the equal/more weight they got in the article. Rondo is a great young player, who is not complete yet. That’s all.
I’m with you, Nazzbo. He needs to cut that s**t out with rolling the ball up the floor. Someone (Rafer Alston?) came close to snatching it in the playoffs and I would have been OK with a total embarassment because he’s a proud kid and that would have been a great lesson. And, yes again, with the reach-arounds. When they work , great. But he needs I think to develop a little more conservativeness on that.
by Wildblu1 on Jun 7, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent read, Nick
Really, a fine job all-around – you encompassed much of how I feel about the young point guard on both ends of the spectrum.
As you no doubt noted from past Babbles, I’ve been in the “I love Raj’s game, but there are a few things that make me shake my head” camp for a while, and I think you hit that spot-on here. A few assorted thoughts…
-I agree that having a left hand would be beneficial, but I’m actually not as bothered by his going to the left as you are. When Rondo goes left, he usually goes with the scoop righty lay-up – and while fundamentally, if your man is inside you to the basket, you want to use your outside hand, Rondo seems (this is purely anecdotal for now) to finish those with a fairly good degree of success. It’s really on the right where he makes me wonder, because as The Guru notes, he rarely seems interested in just taking a normal lay-up around the rim with his strong hand. In fact, it often involves…
-…what you so eloquently termed the “God awful floater.” Nothing to add to that. Well played.
-Can’t stress enough the importance of the defense issue you brought up, and I love the way you broke it down. As the quickest guy on the court, if only he would just slide his feet and keep his man in front of him rather than swiping…
But even as a harp on the points from the second part of the piece, those positives of course shouldn’t be taken for granted. As you note, this is a guy who could be a special player.
Thanks for putting together such a fine piece.
-sw
"I didn't go there with the intentions of getting ejected. I went there with the intentions of just telling Kobe, 'You got to relax. You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?'" -Ron Artest, 05.06.09
by Steve Weinman on Jun 7, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ran out of gas, not unrealistic
With K.G. and Leon in there, Rajon Rondo is a different guard. He went out hard as the playoffs began, then ran dry, IMHO.
Like him a lot, but he really needs to improve on his mid and long range jumpers. Take thousands of shots this summer. With a full cast of characters, Rondo fits in quite comfortably after another full season. This lad is just getting started.
by socal celt on Jun 9, 2009 5:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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