This offseason has been full of reasons why other teams have gotten better.  How the window maybe closing for the Cs.  How we still need to add this or that.   Basically, discounting our Celtics.  This post is an attempt to define why I think the Celtics are in great position to bring home Banner 18 in 2010.

Bill Simmons makes the point that all of the contenders (BOS, SA,  LA, ORL, CLE) got worse except for the Spurs.  He and other media types have given a thumbs down to the Celtics offseason moves:  Rasheed and Daniels.  Criticism has been leveled over not signing Baby yet. Not getting a backup point gaurd for Rondo.  Alienating Rondo.  Not being able to go small. Not having a backup at the 3. Making an old team, older.  They say the Celtic season is dependent on the knees of KG,  the ankles of Ray Allen, and the stamina of Paul Pierce.  I will not argue that these factors are not important.  However, the analysis has been pessimistic and underestimates a hobbled team that won 62 games last year.  It is not the first time the boys in green have been underestimated.  It appears that it won’t be the last time.

Let’s start with the Rasheed deal.  Indeed, the full mid-level for 2 to 3 years was a steep price to play for Sheed.  He did have a seemingly awful year, and he is obviously on the decline.  He shoots more 3 pointers and posts up less.  He has problems with authority and has been known to mail it in (most notably in the 2009 playoffs).  This is not the Sheed of 04 and 05 who helped the Pistons play championship ball.

However, do you doubt that if Sheed was plugged into Mikki Moore’s minutes, the celtics get by Orlando?  Doesn’t Sheed do better job gaurding Rashard Lewis than Baby or Scal?  Is orlando leaving him to clog the lane, like the did with Perk?   Doesn’t he post up Lewis or Hedo if they match up with him?   Isn’t he the best KG sub available?  He’s not a poor man’s PJ Brown.  He is the crazy man’s PJ Brown.  Talented, dedicated, loved by teammates,  and a bit of a loose cannon.  He’s got a championship ring, and in my opinion, plays some of the best post defense this side of Perk and KG.  He’s got grit and persona.  He’s not afraid to shoot (stephon)  and he does all the things Posey did to get under the skin of the other team. Does he have to carry this team?  No.  If he plays good defense,  posts up occasionally, and knocks down 35% of his 3s, the celtics will be hard to beat.

Daniels is criticized mostly for the fact that he is not James Posey. His inablity to shoot the three does limit his game and he is not known for his defense. But he’s the atheletic 2-3 that we were missing last year.  He can be the slasher/scorer that Tony Allen was supposed to be, with the court intelligence and basketball IQ that TA never had.  He’s the first wing off the bench and will hopefully bring both Ray’s and PP minutes down.  He has got enough handle to bring the ball up in some situations, and he has all the ability to be a good defender.  This in its most basic sense is going from TA to Daniels.  This makes us better, no matter how you slice it.

No backup PG is an issue.  But this was a job held by Stephon and Sam Cassel in the past, both of whom, I would’ve liked to seen less of.  While I’d like to sign a good backup PG, the likes of Tyronne Lue, Anthony Carter leave me wanting.  I rather go with the 2008 version PG rotation:  House playing point.  If someone puts pressure on the ball, PP or Daniels brings it up.  If it’s really tight pressure, Rondo comes back in.  Just cause a PG can bring the ball up better than Eddie, doesn’t mean he should be playing night in and night out. As far as I’m concerned, Lester Hudson can be the backup to bring the ball up.

It looks like Baby will be back, and him and/or Shelden Williams give us 4-5 guy big man rotation.  Can we go small?  Daniels or PP at the 4 might be a stretch.  But a lineup with KG and Sheed against a small ball lineup plays good enough defense, and should dominate on offense.  Salmons may get some points if KG  is on him in that bull series, but I like that matchup overall.

Rondo is a goofball.  The most frustrating thing about last year, was that when he played his best, when he went full speed,  the celtics were unstoppable.  We didn’t need KG if Rondo played well.  But he is young, and a knucklehead.  Danny took a risk calling him out.  Maybe he will shut down and have a bad year because of the criticism.  Or, more likely, he’ll feed off of it.  He may have his best year yet,  trying to prove Danny wrong and get paid.  It’s a risk, but it could pay off huge.  If its a bust, we aren’t on the hook for a max contract for a guy who can’t hack it.

Finally the health of the big three.  This has been harped on and is probably the number one reason that the Cs won’t repeat. While I think we can survive if Ray is not the Ray of old, if KG is not KG, we can’t win.   I’m not talking the 22.0 pts, 14 rebound guy.  I’m talking about the defensive anchor, the intensity machine,  the intimidator.  The guy who hold everyone accountable and gives it his all every play, every night.  I remember one play, I can’t remeber against who (Denver maybe),  but the opposing team got a steal, and had a fast break and an easy layup.  I remember KG sprinting back with his big white sleeve on his knee to contest the layup.  I remember the missed shot caused by KG and the rebound picked up by the trailer. I remember no other celtic made it to the other end of the floor. And I remember the stare.  I remember KG not saying a word, staring down Rondo and Perk and the rest of his teammates.  Not a word was said, but it was understood.  The Celts went on a run after that.  The intensity picked up, and the best defense in the NBA came alive. A health KG shifts the balance of power.  People forget how good the celtics are when he’s on the floor.  His impact was overshadowed by last years determination and grit.  The celtics without a talent like Garnett, should probably not have made it out of the first round.  Instead, they battled Orlando to 7 games.  They didn’t roll over and were in that series.  If KG, among the best PF in the history of the league plays,  is there any doubt the C’s win?  Even if he doesn’t score a point,  his intensity and defense would have been enough. 

This team will go as far as KG and PP’s health takes them.  Without either of them, we do not have a reasonable shot.  Is this team without flaws?   No.  But I would argue the 2008 champs were not perfect either.  In Rasheed, we’ve added a big with length and shooting, a guy who’s a good defender and got championship grit.  He can play cruch time minutes and if he melts down, he won’t be any worse than what we had last year.  Daniels is a 2-3 that we can trust, can get his own shot, and probably play good defense.  We can still sign Baby, and a backup PG, but this team could have won it all last year if KG was healthy.  Now we’ve added Sheed and Daniels. 

We’ve already been overlooked.  Underestimated.  Forgotten.

I could think of no better position for this Celtics team to be in.