Nope, It Is Still Not Time To Trade Ray Allen
by Jeff Clark on Jan 6, 2010 9:40 AM EST
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintIf you remember, back in November I wrote that it was not time to trade Ray Allen ...yet. Well, I'm happy to report that it is still not time to trade Ray Allen, and in fact, it might never be that time.
The reason I bring this up is because the trade season is starting to pick up steam and there will be no shortage of big names available on the trade market. The only way the Celtics can match salaries to trade for the biggest name guys is to include Ray Allen's expiring salary. I just don't think that is happening.
Don't get me wrong, some of the names available are interesting. Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, and (depending on who you believe) Chris Paul all might change teams this year. I think if you are Danny Ainge you have to pick up the phone and listen to anything and everything. I just don't think there's any chance that he's going anywhere before this summer.
In addition to being a bigtime shooting threat and one of the big three, there's also the chemistry issue to consider. He's, by all accounts, a fantastic locker room guy and a work ethic leader by example that the younger guys look up to. He's also been a rock in terms of health. He and Perkins are the only starters to play all 32 games this year (Rondo's only missed 1 game).
I think if you remove him from the Celtics, you risk upsetting the fantastic balance this team has. I'm talking about court balance (floor spacing, etc.) and chemistry (you need even-keeled guys around when you've got KG, Sheed, and Perk on your team). He is also part of the core that won Banner 17 and these guys know and trust him because they went into battle with him time and time again. No matter how talented the player is that you might get for Ray, he's going to take time (too much time) to get into the flow.
Maybe trading Ray for a younger player makes more sense in the long term, but not in the short term. Given the short window of Championship opportunities, the short term needs to take priority.
With all that said, there are a few scenarios that I could see Ray getting traded, though they are unlikely based on the complexity of the deals.
Read more after the break (and poll)
1. The team could trade him to a team looking to dump salary and is willing to cut him immediately. Ray would become a free agent and free to sign with the Celtics after 30 days. Of course there's always the chance that he could get a multi-year deal he couldn't refuse from one of our rivals. And there's always the small risk Stern could smell something fishy and hit the team with penalties. So while this option is not impossible, it would clearly be difficult and risky.
2. You always have to leave room for a Godfather type of deal. Say the Raptors get word from Chris Bosh that he positively will be playing in the US next year and they decide to get something for him now. I think they would still wait to try to sign and trade him in the summer, but you never know. Same could be said for Joe Johnson but I can't see Atlanta giving up on JJ in the middle of a strong playoff run. LeBron? Wade? Please, don't even bother. You can debate the merits of getting Chris Paul (and likely having to give up Rondo in a complex deal because of his BYC status) all you want, but I find it hard to believe that would happen either.
So baring the totally unlikely circumstances outlined above, we can most likely count on Ray Allen being a Celtic through June and probably beyond.
Now, if the team were to explore sign-and-trade offers in the offseason, ...well, lets not get ahead of ourselves, shall we?
Update: Also see Zach Lowe's analysis of how Ray makes those around him better.
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Great article.
Right on point! Ray is a keeper, he is still really efficient and in amazing shape, it would be foolish to trade him. And the chemistry part of such a trade is often overlooked, but you are right to say that trading Ray would be a huge hit to the chemistry and the spacing of the team on the floor.
Prince and Rip?
What about Prince and Rip from Boston for Ray and Scal and/or Walker? We lose nothing in Scal and Walker, a solid replacement for Ray in Rip (yeah he’s in a slump but he’s on his way out) and a solid backup to Pierce with a strong defensive and work ethic. Ray’s great but we need to keep sentiments out of it.
I don't see sentiment involved at all.
When you look at what we have with Ray, it all makes since. We have a Clutch performer who has sacrificed his own production for the sake of the team, but yet can still produce (and will produce) for the next several years to come – in Boston.
He can resign with Boston next year and get an extension. Ride off into the sunset with Banner 18 (and 19?)
Both Rip and Prince are great talents, but both of them have had some issues with injuries as of late. And I don’t believe Prince would come off the bench for Pierce.
And could Rip settle for being the 3rd or 4th option on offense?
And we have a backup (or two) to Pierce – Marquis Daniels. Tony Allen can fill in at times.
Not In My House!
by Celtics18and19 on Jan 6, 2010 7:08 AM EST up reply actions
No Way
Tayshawn’s back is shot, he’ll never the same player again. I’d be surprised if he ever plays more than 50 games in a single season again frankly.
Factoring that in, you’re essentially trading Ray Allen for his stunt double Rip Hamilton, who relies on the flop as his best defensive tool. No thanks, I’d rather keep Ray — he’ll be effective well into his late thirties.
Exactly. Great Article.
And in the unlikely event that a trade involving Ray Allen happened, the player coming in would definitely have to sacrifice his offensive production – just like Ray did to come here.
Not In My House!
ray is having a very quiet year so far, but an effective one. tho the fg % might be down , he is taking a lot of opportunity shots, ie shots the other team lets him have , so more drives, more tweeners and more off the dribble all of which take pressure off rondo and others. he has lost a step and is no houdini with the ball but the intensity and hard work and steadiness and all around presence are all important. i think he’s better than reggie miller at this age. too classy and diligent to let go.
Despite his age...
Ray has managed to stay healthy.
Since 2007, only Pierce has played more minutes in a Celtic uniform…and NOT by much!
Ray Allen is GONE
I disagree totally with keeping him. He is gone after this year, so cash that extremely valuable chip and get a young up and coming star. Go get a Caron Butler, Hinrich etc…
I agree that he is probably GONE ...
after the season, if they don’t sign a cheap extension.
But unless they find a trade that makes the team better for THIS year, they are not going to trade him mid-season.
Not saying that won’t happen – it just doesn’t look likely.
Most likely he plays out the contract and walks. And that’s okay – we’ll get cap relief and we’ll have gotten at least one championship and three playoff runs out of him – that’s been money very well spent!
I don't think so
My guess is that he resign this summer 3 yrs at around 30M.
Caron Butlet, Kirk Hinrick, – Now there are 2 studs – pls read Duds!!!! Why not Agent Zero!!!.
2 things on Chris Pual: First – He’s not going ANYWHERE. Second – If he were on the trade market he is a BYC player we couldn’t trade Ray for him anyway. NO can only take back about half his salary and all the number still have to match -within 25% plus 100K.
Fundamentaly Sound -
Ray is the most fundamentally sound player I’ve ever seen in a Celtics uniform – his movements are so fluid, his shot is so pure, his basketball IQ is thru the roof, and he’s healthy!
There’s no need to trade him.
..
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk
Godfather deals by definition
…can’t be refused. I suppose the only way you can vote 3 is if there’s no deal imaginable that fits that description for you. Hard to believe.
Here’s a fun thought. What if by some ridiculous twist CP3 came to Boston WITHOUT giving up Rondo? Not gonna happen, but what if? How could those two be managed? What would the game be like if they were both on the court at the same time? Do you think we could stop looking for a backup PG then?
by DRJ1 on Jan 6, 2010 8:31 AM EST via mobile reply actions
yeah
my polls aren’t always the most well thought-out :)
oh well
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
I was thinking a similar thought about Rondo and Paul
Could that work? Paul is a terrific shooter and could play off the ball if they were in the game together. But I doubt either of them would want to do so. Didn’t they have a bit of a rivalry going on?
I love watching both of them play, so from a fan’s and fantasy point of view, I would say “Yes!”
You’re absolutely right, we wouldn’t have to worry about a back up PG.
I don't see it
There just aren’t many great players on teams that are avail. There are some good players, but not any that really puts us over the top. And we’d have to take back some of their junk.
CP3 not happening see above.
Unfortunately, Memphis doesn’t have much left – Rudy Gay, but we’d have to take 4 other players to make the salaries match including Marko Jaric.(puke).
Chicago might let us have TT if we take Salmons. Now if they threw in Deng, I would be tempted.
Saxto K Martin and Noc, but Martin is still out.
Remember it takes 2 to deal and there aren’t many Chirs Wallace’s out there!!!!!!!!!!!!
Three scenarios to trade Ray
1- To acquire a franchise player.
2- For a combo of players such as Prince and Hamilton. I would do that in a heart beat, but I can’t see Joe Dumars doing that; although he did trade Billups for cap relief (AI).
3- Let us just say that KG or PP continue to have knee issues and it becomes apparent in February that a finals show down with the Lakers is a long shot. IMO, that would be the time to leave no stone unturned to deal Ray.
I love Ray Ray...
but I’d trade him without a second thought for Kevin Martin!!! Even if that meant taking back some trash contract like Kenny Thomas. It would definitely be worth it to see a backcourt of Rondo and Kmart!!!
Coincidentally, CelticsHub has just published an article titled "Ray Allen and the mysteries of making other players better"
Check it out : http://celticshub.com/2010/01/06/ray-allen-and-the-mysteries-of-making-other-players-better/#more-5196
Basically, Ray, when played with the second unit, makes the bench players better. They play better when playing with Ray as the only starter while it’s not the case when their are paired with Paul for example.
Sure, you can’t read too much into that but it’s true that the bench + Ray combination usually works wonders, and it’s another positive influence of Ray to take into account when you consider the possibility of trading him – which is clearly a bad idea for me.
chris paul
although we don’t need another PG you’d have to think long and hard about trading ray for chris paul if that were a possibility. Paul is not a shooter like ray but he can penetrate and hit the open three. it would certainly solve the pg problem!
That deal has 2 definitions
1) Before the fact, it’s “Too good to be true”. (And it’s a lock to stay that way.)
2) If it were to become fact, I’d say it’s the quintessential “Godfather” deal… absolutely cannot be refused.
Not gonna happen
So why waste time thinking about it.
That trade would be a crime....
if Paul would be happy and could effectively play at the shooting guard position.
If so then if Paul was offered to us for Ray Allen etc., Ainge must pull the trigger on it since trading Ray for a young stud like Paul would be a no brainier.
Time Marches On
Ray is a great player and a class act. He is also 35 years old. Of course you see what you can get.
And it’s not only Ray. It’s Garnett and Pierce also. We see the nagging injuries starting to pile up. That’s what happens to older players.
Sure, you can keep everone around for sentimental reasons, as the Celtics did after 1988. That strategy led to a 20-year championship drought.
Brick: Think back again.....
The loss of Lenny Bias was a HUGE factor in the 20 year drought of the Boston Celtics
Bias Died in 1986
Bias’ death was water over the dam. When they lost to the Pistons in ’88, it was time to move Bird, Parish and/or McHale for younger players and draft picks.
The death of Reggie Lewis was more damaging IMHO, because he would have been the centerpiece of the rebuilding. After Lewis died, they had nothing at all, especially since they blew three straight drafts: 1992 (Jon Barry, who refused to sign), 1993 (Acie Earl) and 1994 (Eric Montross).
Horrible draft picks {1992-94} indeed!
Barry was later traded for the immortal….Alaa Abdelnaby!
Bird wasn't going anywhere
There’s no way Bird was going to end his career anywhere but Boston. That would have resulted in a lynch mob.
Parish sure, started his career with GS. Mchale, maybe. Bird, no way.
Parrish did finish his career with the Bulls....
Another championship ring, although he didn’t play much…
by thirstyboots18 on Jan 6, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
Trade the Big 3....
RAY : At some point Ray will get traded, it`s only a matter of where and when. There is no chance Allen retires as a Celtic. Danny will see to it.
Odds of Ray retiring as a Celtic…0%
KG : Last year at this time, I thought there was at least a 90% chance he`d retire as a Celtic. The effects of that knee injury have not gone away, and he looks very fragile and vulnerable out there. Combine that with paying him $23M per year through 2012, tells me that it is more likely than not that he won`t retire as a Celtic.
Odds of KG retiring as a Celtic…30%-40%
PAUL : He has slipped into the category of Celtic icon. Seeing him in another uniform would be potentially gut-wrenching. Danny might have to make an exception, and draw the line here.
Odds of Paul retiring as a Celtic…at least 95%
You talked to Danny about Ray?
Or you just want us to believe it’ll happen for some random reason? Unless you have, why should I believe he’ll be traded? And for who?
by Tai on Jan 6, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
based on ... what?
Yes, he has a big expiring contract and that is an attractive thing to move.
BUT – they are in a championship year. They will only move Ray if it makes them stronger THIS year. They will not trade Ray’s contract for “the future”.
If the C’s suddenly flop (injuries, whatever) and it gets to where it is clear they will not be able to contend this year, they would probably move Ray for youth. But that is not likely to happen.
So in order for your “prediction” to happen, there needs to be a viable trade out there where the end result is Ray is gone and the Celtics are stronger THIS year.
Propose one, please.
I think Rondo’s growth at such a young age skew’s the comparsion of the 09 Celts to the 88 Celts.
Right now, he’s one of our best players, one of the best pg’s in the league. His continued success could allow PP & RA to stick around as role players until they retire. Their contract extensions won’t be of hte max variety, so we’ll still have $$ to throw at some up and comer.
Can you imagine pairing a Max-deal forward with Rondo in 2012 and having role players like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce spreading the floor on team friendly contracts? I don’t anticipate a lengthy rebuild at all – thanks to Rajon Rondo.
If a great deal came along C's should trade Allen.
Once again the goal here is to win a title not show loyalty to Allen (even though he deserves it for helping us win title 17 in 08 .
I agree with nishesh’s comments above if the Pistons came a calling and wanted to offer us Prince and Hamilton for Ray, TA and Scal, Ainge would have to be silly not to do that trade since it would upgrade the team big time and give us a better shot at winning a title this year.
Also Hamilton and Price are still fairly young and they would help prolong the C’s window of being a championship contender for a few more years more then if we kept Allen who is 35 years old.
Again Ainge is in a very good position that he has alot of flexibility to improve this club and help it win a title this year since he has so many options and expiring contracts (Scal, TA , House, and Ray Allen) .
If he goes at it carefully and waits for a great deal this already very good club can get even better come playoff time which means we have a even greater shot at title 18 this year.
I just don't see any realistic transaction that makes sense
The only one that comes close is maybe a combo Prince+Rip for Ray+trash deal.
But then are we becoming the pre-2009 Pistons? Okay, that would be the best parts of the pre-2009 Pistons combined with KG, Pierce, Perk & Rondo … that doesn’t sound so bad.
But I just don’t see Dumars making that deal.
I also think Ray’s value to the team is so high right now, I expect Danny would hesitate to pull the trigger on that one as well.
Anything with Chris Paul or Kevin Martin?
Allen + BBD or Daniels or whoever they want for Paul and one of NO’s bad contracts. Or Allen and Rondo to the Kings for Martin, picks and some filler…. They buy-out Allen and we resign him.
by funkstarrdeluxe on Jan 6, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
No.
That doesn’t make the team stronger for THIS year. BBD may not be a starter, but he is a hugely important piece of the front three rotation – almost as important as ’Sheed.
They will not move Allen in a trade unless it improves them THIS year – because this is a championship year.
Paul is younger and has way more total value than Allen, but a lot of that value is future value.
Paul is not enough of an upgrade for THIS year that we could afford to lose Allen PLUS any one else from the primary 9 rotation. Its also very questionable how long it would take to work Paul into the Celtic’s systems of team defense and pass-pass-pass inside/outside offense. He’s been the sole stud in NO. Note that I said ‘how long’ not ‘whether’. He would eventually fit – he’s too good not to. But again, moving Allen would be about THIS year. I expect DA & Doc would consider it way too risky.
The Kevin Martin trade would be great – only for the future. That would maybe make sense if we find we’ve fallen out of contention and are giving up on the season.
Great Point By Brick
Sentimental choices can rob a franchise of it’s future. Brick pointed out 20 year drought the last time we had a big three kept together. Danny showed sentimentality has no place in business: e.g. letting Powe go. I love Ray and his game but if a godfather trade was possible, I say “Do it”.
bad comparison - this time we have Rondo & Perk
as very young studs. And stud PGs and Centers are the two hardest pieces to find. That’s two giant championship-caliber pieces out of 5 that we will build around for years to come. We may not be a championship finals team every year, but we should be one of the better teams for years to come.
Not to mention BBD and some of the other kids still have potential. This is not the same team as the 88 team.
Plus folks keep forgetting that if Ray plays out this year and walks, then the Celtics get the benefit of freed up cap room.
I repeat – Allen is not going to be traded for future value. He will only be traded if it makes this team stronger THIS year. (Unless the C’s collapse for some reason).
Chemistry is a great ingredient; but come playoff time, you need fresh legs and able bodies; not what we had at the end of last year. Scal is a great chemistry guy; he probably has a PHD in locker chemistry, so he cant be traded? You trade if you get better value. Nobody should be untradeable in this team. Legs are getting older and our time window is getting smaller. Wake up and smell the coffee or we are back to the second half of 86’.
dont be a fanatic be a fan be reaistic
The same ray allen that disapears for whole series for weeks at a time.the same ray allen that’s so fundamentally sound that he turns the ball over when he tries to dribble or lead a fast break.the same ray allen who is gonna be gone after the year is over anyway unless he will take a serious salary decrease.give me tayshawn and rip see how much continuity we lose .
by reggie_35 on Jan 6, 2010 11:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I like Rip, but...
I like Rip and have followed his career closely since UConn, but giving up Ray for him is not a good idea. First, he is not much younger (31 vs. 34). Second, although he shared the credit and offense for a while in Detroit, he had a big issue sharing the limelight and SG spot with Iverson last year. I think his ego has gotten too big. There are very few players who would be willing to/have sacrificed their game so much to help the team as Ray Allen.
by papa shuttlesworth on Jan 6, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions
Realistic Trade
IMHO Tayshaun Prince will be traded to Utah for Boozer.
The realistic Ray Allen trade is to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw. The Bobcats are hemmoraging cash and Bob Johnson has put the team up for sale. Someone has to start fixing the ridiculous salary mess that MJ has created there.
Hmm
That Charlotte trade idea is interesting…
by papa shuttlesworth on Jan 6, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Ray stays...
I don’t see Ray getting traded until the off season…if at all. And trading Rip for Ray wouldn’t make sense, Detroit already has a starting quality shooting guard in BG.
I don’t really see Ray going anywhere…his worth here is great, elsewhere not so much unless you are missing a clutch time shooter on an already solid squad. I think non-contenders would be wasting their time as by the time you’re ready to compete, you’ve already abused Ray (while building).
BTW, I love Rays game and I think it fits this system/situation perfect. I don’t know if it will be like that in the future though. Just remember that he can explode for 50+ as he has shown last year.
I say keep him!
Rays value to...
…a non contender is his expiring contract; the fact he is a high character guy that can shoot lights out is frosting on the cake.
So much trade nonsense
Remember, Everyone, Kevin McHale is gone. No one is going to trade silk purses for sow’s ears. Ray has value, especially to us. But Joe Dumars trading away two in-their-prime starters for one Ray (and filler)…no way. I wouldn’t trade Ray for Kevin Martin anymore than I’d trade him for Stephen Jackson.
As someone mentioned I think Danny has proven he won’t be victim to sentimentality. But Ray is worth the run to the championship for us. Clamor all you want for Nocioni, Caron Butler etc we have the pieces to beat all but the Lakers and we can get by them better with the guys we’ve got than anyone I cna think of via a bad trade to move pieces (Scalabrine) that don’t matter anyway. People throw Tony Allen’s name around as though he hasn’t shown int hel ast week that he has significant impact ability.
Remember about Ray, he doesn’t just come off everyone else’s books next year, he comes off ours too. Would he stay here for 2 years/$10 mil. I believe he would although I’m not sure I’d go THAT high.
Right about one thing, Brickowski
I don’t think Wallace and Diaw can be done for Ray. I love Ray but I’d do that trade. Where you are right is that Michael Jordan has taken on McHale’s (and let’s not forget the all timey Isaiah) role as front office dope of dopes.
I always like Kirilenko. I keep thinking that is a great player badly in need of a Jerry Sloan separation. KG, Rondo and Kirilenko together on the floor is interesting. But, he’s only worth the money (if at all) if I’m right that he’s in need of a new team insead of just losing his heart for the game.
Joe dumars will if he wants to shed those contracts pistons are goin no where and rip isn’t part of there future neither is tayshawn ,ray went for 50 one game in which we lost .but that’s just one option and we can’t trade ray in the off season his contract is up.
by reggie_35 on Jan 6, 2010 1:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Right
The point is to trade him now for someone with a few years left, because we won’t be able to sign anyone in free agency to any real sort of a deal.
by funkstarrdeluxe on Jan 6, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
again, it has to all be about THIS year
Unless the Celtics feel they are out of it for this year (say, KG, Pierce & ‘Sheed all get serious injuries) then they are NOT going to trade Ray for ’The Future’.
They will only trade him for someone(s) that make the team stronger for this year’s run at a title.
STUPID, STUPID, STUPID
Trading Ray would be a silly move on the part of the Celtics. Why does this question keep coming up?? He has been so valuable to this team for three years that I can’t believe that people feel he is that dispensable. Ray will stay here, sign a decent contract and retire a Celtic, as it should be. I am proud to call myself a HUGE Ray Allen fan. This topic drives me nuts!!
Extension
As DA did not extend Ray’s contract, he becomes a free agent this summer. Part of me does not see DA’s logic unless he wanted to keep open the potential of a trade, where Ray’s money would come off the books/ or Ray wants too much. In any case, there is a real possibility that Ray walks and we get nothing. I assume there will be a call made, that weighs the teams potential for another title this year with Ray, vs the risk of losing his value. And the likelihood that DA can match his $ demands as he becomes a free agent. Although Ray,Williams, House, Daniels, TA, Scal, Giddens all become free agents. And Perk comes open soon after. The Big three has such large contracts, you can’t keep good young players, without their being a dramatic change in the Big 3 $ demands.
Trade
If not Ray Allen then Pierce……maybe celtics can get a Rudy Gay …
Trade
Maybe the Coach should go….How can you lose to Chicago with almost the same guy team…
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