Boston Celtics Notes - November 28
by Greg Payne on Nov 28, 2010 12:59 PM EST
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintHappy Sunday, everyone. Here are some quick Celtics-related things to think about.
Paul Pierce Sees Dip in Free Throw Percentage
Through the first 11 games of the season, Paul Pierce was leading the NBA in free throw percentage at 94.1 percent. He made 48 of the 51 free throws he attempted over that 11-game span. Over the last five games, however, Pierce has made just 20 of the 30 free throws he has attempted, good for just 66.6 percent. The gap in percentages speaks for itself. Because of the drop-off in percentage over the last five games, Pierce's free throw average for the season now sits at an even 84 percent. For his career, Pierce has shot 80.2 percent from the free throw line, and has shot at least 83 percent in each of the last three seasons, including a career-high 85.2 percent last season.
Kevin Garnett Already Closing in on Last Season's Double-Double Total
Last season, Kevin Garnett played 69 games for the Celtics and recorded only 10 double-doubles (all of which consisted of points and rebounds). Through 16 games this season, Garnett's already posted 7 double-doubles (all of which have also consisted of points and rebounds). This stat, combined with Garnett's other various rebounding statistics (9.2 rebounds per game, a defensive rebounding rate of 30.8 percent, etc.) serves as further proof (as if we needed any more) that, physically, Garnett is in a much better place this season compared to last season. They alley-oops, the sprinting up and down the floor, and the individual slam dunks (as opposed to the softer lay-ins) in traffic also worthy sources of evidence of this.
Glen Davis Preferring the Perimeter
Glen Davis has actually had something of an increased role for the Celtics off the bench this season. Not only has he been the team's most consistent and relied-upon player off of the bench, but he's been staying in the lineup down the stretch in the fourth quarter, with the other four starters, in place of Shaquille O'Neal. There's been talk lately, though, about the number of jump shots Davis has been taking. Overall, Davis is taking just about three more field goal attempts this season than he did last season, and sure enough, his attempts from 16-23 feet (according to Hoopdata) have risen to 3.5 per game, compared to just one per game last season. So far, he has hit just 41 percent of those shots.
His shots at the rim, meanwhile, have stayed just about the same as last season's. He took 2.5 attempts at the rim last season, compared to 2.4 attempts this season. His attempts from 10-15 feet are also up to 1.1 per game this season, compared to just 0.5 per game last season. The added field goals, then, are indeed coming on shots from the perimeter.
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Good to see BBD having a more defined (bigger) role on he team.
But 41%? Just that? He should take those mid-range shots if he actually can convert half of them.
But I don’t blame him. The games I am able to watch shows that he only takes those when he is open. I’d rather see him try making a open shot rather than a contested, more difficult one, especially inside (with his lack of height/length).
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell
Davis actually finishes at the rim better now
I’d say that’s the thing he’s improved the most in the offseason so far. However, his jump shot is just not there yet. Most of those shots are wide open 15 footers and he’s only shooting 41%. He needs to get that % at least to 50% (wide open) or he shouldn’t be shooting them, there’s better options on the team.
by TomHamilton30 on Nov 28, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Black Hole
I somewhat disagree. I think, that in the last few games he seems to have developed into a black hole. If he gets the ball he shoots it. Kevin Mchale was a black hole; the difference is that he shot about 60% not 41. Course BBD is still doing the other things, setting picks, taking charges but to me is just shooting too much. I worry about BBD trying to put up big numbers in his contract year, He’s a important member of the team but if his mind set is to put up big numbers it could derail our championship goal.
Agreed, except about the motive
For whatever reason, he’s been a black hole. But it it a statistically significant sample?
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
Thanks for correcting me
looking at Eeyore III’s post (above), he does have a point. 16 games into the season is too little of a sample size, statistically.
Let’s just see how everything plays out for BBD as the season progress. But I do hope that whatever he does, it’s for the good of the team.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Nov 29, 2010 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
nice job as usual Greg
find myself looking forward to these quick hit notes articles
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Agreed
I always enjoy Greg’s articles. Nothing too fancy, not trying to say too much, but informative. :)
by TomHamilton30 on Nov 28, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
Curious
What is KG’s shooting percentage from 16-23 feet? They certainly look better when KG shoots, but do they actually go in more? (I’m really curious)
by papa shuttlesworth on Nov 28, 2010 5:25 PM EST reply actions
Pace ourselves
I’m okay with Baby taking more outside shots, especially if Shaq or Jermaine are on the floor at the same time.
The key is the Celts need to not get burned out like seemed to have happened along with nagging injuries after a great start last year.
We appear to be much deeper this time around. My goal is not best record in the East necessarily, but a better reg. season record than the Lakers. Home court can be a big advantage come finals if we both meet. I’d like to have the first 2 in Boston, and a game #7. I know it is getting way too early to be thinking NBA finals but this is the direction we need to point towards IMO, as long as we can stay reasoably healthy and fresh come playoffs.
by bostoncelts fan on Nov 28, 2010 7:01 PM EST reply actions
Baby
Last year, Davis’ Net48 +/- was a miserable -4.3 (although it got a lot better towards the end of the season).
This year, Davis is at +5.1 so far.
That says it all.
We can kibitz about this & that, but overall, Glen is playing very well and helping this team.
According to 82games' 11/21 update Baby is -3.4 on the year
He’s +5.1 on-court, but the team is +8.5 when he’s off the court. Either way, though, he’s still on a positive unit which is good.
Saying Davis is -3.4 is misleading
What bench player has a higher +/- than the starters? I’d say very few. Sure the team does a little better with Davis off the court, but, Davis plays a lot of minutes with the bench, his +/- is bound to be lower.
This is why individual +/- is a very pointless stat. It depends just as much on who you play with as it does your own play.
by KG's Knee on Nov 29, 2010 4:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn't call it a 'very pointless stat' at all.
It is a very valuable stat because it measures whether the player is being productive when he’s on the floor. It rolls up a lot of factors, including intangibles that are completely missing from other stats. That is both its strength and its weakness (it doesn’t fail to include any factors, but it doesn’t give you fine-grained information about those factors).
But every stat has to be looked at appropriately and you are spot on to point out that you shouldn’t compare it to the team’s over +/-.
All that matters is that this stat shows that, when he’s on the floor, Davis right now is being of positive value to us. You can say its because he’s gotten better, or you could say it is because the other 4 guys on the floor around him are better or you could say Doc is putting him on the floor in better situations, or whatever. Any or all those things could be true. But the net-net is that he is more valuable to us so far this year than he was overall last year.
You should be careful about intra unit differential
Noting that his personal +/- is less than the team overall is simply a reflection of being with the bench units and not as much with the starters.
The +8.5 number is largely driven by the talent differential of the starters, who are not only simply better players, but also on the floor for more minutes.
You don’t normally expect a bench player to have as high a +/- (over extended minutes) as the team overall – because if he did, well, maybe he should be starting!
For value to the team, the point is when he’s on the court, he’s helping to either extend the lead or cut into a deficit against the opposition players that he’s being put on the floor against. And that’s what his +5.1 is saying. And that is dramatically better than last year!
Celtics know they have an inside game. They know they have a 3 point game. They are working on their midrange game. It makes sense. Celtics can probably beat anyone with an outside/inside game, but they just want to work on adding the midrange game to the arsenal. After all, regular season games don’t mean anything.
Lots and lots of bench players have a higher +/- than the starters
Just glanced at the first 5 teams in the NBA in alphabetical order, and all of them had bench players with higher +/- than many of their starters. You have to remember, bench players play a lot against other bench players, so the competition level evens out. And the whole point of +/-, over time, is to separate an individual’s contribution from that of their teammates by looking at how they do with all units they play with.
There are valid criticisms of the +/- stats (just like any other stat), but I don’t think this one was a very good one. And besides, I agreed that him being on a positive unit was a good sign even if it wasn’t as positive as some of the alternatives.
Beware anecdotal reinforcement.
Certainly lots of bench players will have greater +/- than some starters on lots of teams. That’s completely anecdotal though. There are just a host of factors that can lead to that so each of those situations can be for completely different reasons. The most common will be traced to small samples of minutes. Other times to a team simply being a bad team that happens to have a ‘relatively’ strong bench (i.e. the bench is good compared to other teams’ benches).
It is still an apples to oranges comparison to compare an individual’s +/- to the team’s.
Individual +/- is a perfectly useful stat, but like all stats it needs to be looked at appropriately.
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