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Is Ray Allen Losing his Touch? (Not shooting, obviously)

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Some things in life are unexplainable. One such thing is Vinny Del Negro receiving a second NBA head coaching job. Another is how Luke Harangody shoots like a seizure-ing raccoon, yet still makes a fair percentage of his jumpers. A third is that Mikki Moore was once considered the Celtics' missing piece.

One more unexplainable occurrence? The normally productive "Ray Allen plus four bench players" lineup is playing quite poorly. Around this time last season, that lineup (albeit with a different bench) was producing at an impressive clip.

Zach Lowe, writing for CelticsHub at the time, praised Allen's ability to make his teammates better. Allen, Eddie House, Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels and Shelden Williams had combined to play 72 minutes as a unit. They had scored 127 points per 100 possessions, and allowed only 93.

We had reason to believe Allen's presence was an important cause of the unit's impressive play: When Paul Pierce played with the same four reserves, the production dropped drastically. Pierce had played 57 minutes with that  lineup, and the unit had scored 101 points per 100 possessions, allowing 116 themselves.

The "Ray Allen makes bench players better" trend was also evident in 2008-'09, and in 2007-'08. Allen has actually shown an ability to make bench players better for quite some time. According to Lowe, Allen's positive effect on bench teammates dates all the way back to his time in Seattle. 

Fast forward to the present. This year's "Allen and four bench players" lineup isn't playing well at all (105.63 points scored/100 possessions, 128.17 points allowed/100 possessions), and Doc has all but abandoned the "Pierce and four bench players" unit.

So, umm, what's going on? Why are the four bench players (now Robinson, Daniels, Erden and Davis) suddenly better off when joined by Von Wafer or Delonte West?

Star-divide

Maybe Allen simply doesn't mesh well with this year's second unit. The unit is quite different from last year's, indeed. The most important difference might be the change from Eddie House to Nate Robinson. House, like Robinson, is far from a pure point guard. But they are very different players. House was uncomfortable with the ball in his hands, while Robinson does not at all mind pounding the basketball into the court. I imagine, for a shooter like Allen, it's more difficult to play with Robinson than it was to play with House.

Another possibility is that this trend is only an insignificant aberration, which will be cured with a larger sample size. The "Allen plus four bench players" unit has played only 41.5 minutes together. That's less than a full game. While it is enough to begin drawing conclusions from, the conclusions may not be perfect until the sample size increases. 

Or maybe, just maybe, Allen has more to do with this trend than we'd think. As Ryan DeGama noted in a phenomenal post for Celtics Hub, Allen has become more of a "shot maker" than a "shot creator." At this stage in his career, Allen scores most of his points because of other players' play-making abilities. More of his shots are assisted than ever before. That's fine when Rondo is creating opportunities and Allen is cashing in. It's great, even. While creating less of his own offense, Allen (arguably the greatest three-point shooter ever) is putting together the greatest three-point shooting season of his career.

But when he plays with the second unit, Allen needs to become more of a play-maker than a finisher. At this stage of his career, is he still capable of doing that? Is he still capable of raising the level of his teammates' play? Can he still take four bench players and make them all better? Is he showing the effects of age in ways less noticeable than shooting percentages or scoring averages?

Truthfully, I'm not sure. But it's something to look at as the season progresses.

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I think Ray is a shot maker and a shot creator

He never stops moving off screens and when he goes one on one (especially to the basket ) HE SEEMS QUITE EFFECTIVE TO ME.

I am not so sure one could “write off” this combo of players just yet. Like any group of 5 players they need time to jell and adjust together. I would be curious as to how much actual time these 5 have spent on the floor together in UNINTERUPTED minutes and I would also be curious how often is Doc calling plays for these 5 players as opposed to Nate running the show.

Lot’s of variables including who they are playing against at the time these 5 are on the floor…..I draw no conclusions except that……………………….I want Ray Allen on the floor all the prudent minutes he can stand to play not matter who he plays with…he is quite simply a great player (then and now).

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Dec 14, 2010 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

My view is...

Agree, Ray isn’t shot creator. He doesn’t try to break down the defense and create his own shot. He’s a catch and shooter.

by KWW on Dec 14, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Ray Allen

Was a shot creator until he came to the Celtics. He just does it way less now. Thats what I call being a teammate and sacrificing for a championship

by OsirusCeltics on Dec 14, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Ray, Ray

Besides KG, Ray has been the most consistent player for the C’s. He is one of the most graceful players I"ve ever seen. Last year he was too old and everyone wanted him gone. This year he’s beating younger guys up the court (as is KG and even Shaq). He did that last year for those who didn’t notice. In the Philly game Ray couldn’t buy a shot. Then at the end when Philly pretty much had the game in hand, Ray hits a three., Then the great KG/Rondo play with the buzzer about to go off.

Ray can no longer be evaluated by stats (neither can any other Celtic player). Ray helps this team, just by being on the floor. Someone always needs to guard him, which opens up other players (see what happened to Philly when they didn’t guard him at the end). Even if he doesn’t score a point he helps his team win. He’s also a better defender and rebounder and competitor than most give him credit for. So let people say all the negatives they want. I want Ray on my team. Also, let’s not forget Ray the person. He’s up there with the finest.

"I don't come to play, I come to WIN"--Larry Bird
"Criminally Negligent Officiating"--Tommy Heinsohn

by TrueGreen on Dec 14, 2010 10:41 AM EST reply actions  

Ray is Very Good.... But....

Let’s be realistic…. you might be “nut-hugging” a little too much there pal.

Ray is dynamic. He plays tremendous D. He is in “tip-top” shape with conditioning, which allows him to constantly stay in motion on the Offensive end without the ball. He might be the best offensive off-ball player in the game right now…..

But, besides KG, Rondo has to be regarded as the most consistant player. Ray is very streaky with shooting…. never consistant on a nightly basis….. some nights he goes 5-7 while others he goes 2-9

"Top Of The World!!!" By: Kevin 'The Big Ticket' Garnett

by MrBoston on Dec 14, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

I thought about Rondo a few hours after I posted. Agree with you. And we might also throw in Glen Davis. I’m not sure that because Ray is a “streaky” shooter that means he’s not consistent. I think he has an effect in every game he’s played in, even if he’s not shooting well. And with that said, maybe we need to add the Captain to the list. His shooting has also been streaky, but he always does something, rebound, defense to make his presence felt and he brings it every nite. I think we just have a great team and it’s tough to compare individuals. They don’t care about stats so why should we. Just finished “When The Game Was Ours” and Magic, at the end, talks about the different atitudes of the newer players. One of the things he mentioned was that he and his teammates showed up an hour and a half before practice and stayed after practice. This was opposed to the players that replaced them after he retired. These Celtics are a throwback team.

"I don't come to play, I come to WIN"--Larry Bird
"Criminally Negligent Officiating"--Tommy Heinsohn

by TrueGreen on Dec 14, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

but there you go

measuring Ray’s contributions solely on his FG – FGA numbers.

Ray’s utilitization rates put him firmly as the #4 scoring option on this team. And that is by design. His primary value to the team on offense is NOT as a scorer, but as a facilitator to create space for the #1, #2 & #3 guys (Paul, KG & RR). The reason is because generally they are scoring their shots in close to the hoop – those are higher percentage shots. Even if Ray shot a fantastic 45% from 3PT land all year, that is still much lower percentage than we can get by scoring at the hoop.

It varies, but one of the recurring offensive themes for this team is for Ray to move defenders out of position and depending on how they react, Rondo gets the ball to whomever can attack the hoop as a result. Teams react to Ray because they can’t know when he’s going to have an ‘off night’. They HAVE to keep a man on him to defend his shot. So the defense will always put a man on him close to contest his shot and the Celtics use this fact to move the defense around. If no play at the hoop is possible, then the ball gets kicked back out to Ray.

If Ray is hot from outside, that’s great. The team is usually unstoppable on those nights. But it is not designed to depend on those shots. You don’t succeed by depending on 3PT shooting which at it’s best is a 40% proposition and inherently streaky. You succeed by depending on layups and dunks.

The point is, Ray can be doing a fantastic job of facilitating this offense even on a lousy shooting night. So you can’t use his game-to-game shooting as a measure of consistent play.

by mmmmm on Dec 14, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

one fault in your logic

If you shoot 40% from 3 that is equivalent to 60 % from 2. So 40% from 3 is actually a very high success rate.

by KJ33 on Dec 14, 2010 10:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

fair point, though

1) its not exactly the same because your chance for zero points on the possession are higher and a point-in-the-paint has a higher chance of generating fouls and free throws. Thus it isn’t a straight 3 : 2 comparison is not correct. The real ratio is more likely around 3.1 : 2.5 or so – and that ignores the value of fouls beyond the immediate FTs.

2) as a general strategy you don’t expect your 3PT shooter to continue to shoot at 40%. League average is usually closer to 30%. And while those percentages are consistent over many games, the beta is so high within a single game (or even a few games), it is risky to base your game plan on them!

by mmmmm on Dec 15, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I do have trouble believing Ray is the 4th scoring option, under Rondo 3rd. Considering Rondo would dish to Ray most of the time well before thinking of his own.
But I feel you none the less.

by Warrior Spirit on Dec 15, 2010 12:14 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

this year, Ray HAS moved up above Rondo but is still 4th

because Shaq has taken the 3rd spot in our utilization % with our current starting 5.

So Basically it isn’t that Ray has moved up, but rather that Rondo has deferred more in favor of Shaq over himself – which makes sense given Shaq’s offensive presence.

With Perk out there, the equation changes and Rondo would likely be deciding to go to himself more than Perk (Perk ranked 5th in the starters USG% the last few years).

I should note, that our USG% are not highly skewed towards any one individual. Even as a 4th option, we go to Ray 20% of the time. Pierce as #1 is only 23% and Rondo even dropped to #5 this year is still at just under 18%.

That is just remarkable offensive balance!

by mmmmm on Dec 15, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

When your bench, in addition to your main unit

Is filled with such good players, and when those players all have strong personalities, strong ambition and confidence, adjustments are going to be made as needed and everyone will work for group cohesiveness. Not only that, but it’s a cause for celebration. We’ve got an amazing group of people together and I’m not worried at all about Ray. I think we’re the team with the best chemistry in the NBA. If it’s true that Ray doesn’t set up or make as many of his shots, the group will rally with that and adjust.

by mmbaby on Dec 14, 2010 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

Allan plus four benchers

The entire premise of the article is based on somewhat less than two minutes a game.

 Don’t you think you’ve gone a bit overboard, considering that D.West and or Wafer were practising with this bench group, which means that as a group, they’ve played many more minutes together in practice and/ or games than the measly less than two minutes you’ve posited here.

 Try writing this piece similar same conditions apply after the mid-term mark.

Lygafe.

Lionel Gaffen / Fotomix.

Lygafe

Lionel Gaffen / Fotomix

http://lygaffen.blogspot.com/

http://community.webshots.com/user/lygafe

http://forums.internationalhockey.net/showthread.php?t=7448&page=2

International Hockey Forums > Europe > ISRAEL
Israel Recreational Hockey Association 2009-2010 & 2010-2011 [ Lygafe ]

Israel Ice Skating Federation - From the Media [ Lionel Gaffen ]

http://www.eurohockey.net/news/story.html?id=20090408104226_herzliya_emerges_as_israeli_national_league_champions

by lygafe on Dec 14, 2010 10:51 AM EST reply actions  

+1

Haha it really is only two minutes

by OsirusCeltics on Dec 14, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok I need to ask, what the heck is Fotomix anyway Lionel?

by Warrior Spirit on Dec 15, 2010 12:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Warrior Spirit re: Fotomix

Fotomix is the name of my photography company, as I am a photojournalist and professional photographer, and have used that name professionally for a few decades. Thanks for asking.

Lygafe

Lionel Gaffen / Fotomix.

Lygafe

Lionel Gaffen / Fotomix

http://lygaffen.blogspot.com/

http://community.webshots.com/user/lygafe

http://forums.internationalhockey.net/showthread.php?t=7448&page=2

International Hockey Forums > Europe > ISRAEL
Israel Recreational Hockey Association 2009-2010 & 2010-2011 [ Lygafe ]

Israel Ice Skating Federation - From the Media [ Lionel Gaffen ]

http://www.eurohockey.net/news/story.html?id=20090408104226_herzliya_emerges_as_israeli_national_league_champions

by lygafe on Dec 15, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

What you look at as...

two minutes per game is actually the bench’s most common lineup. And the bench has under-achieved this year. Plus, the lineup is bucking a trend that has been alive since Allen’s Seattle days.

Is the underwhelming performance of “Allen plus four bench players” debilitating at all? No, but it’s interesting. And it could point out some larger flaws that are less noticeable alone.

by Jay_King on Dec 14, 2010 11:07 AM EST reply actions  

In fairness to Jay

…he did state that the sample size is small, etc.

Fact is, Ray Ray never was a great passer. Barely mediocre. But he knows the playbook cold, and is a tutor to many of the younger guys, and is, of course, a great player himself… the sum of which probably accounts for his history of making secondary units better

As for his purported ‘decline’ in shot creation… I beg to differ. Ray regularly makes his own shot. One good example is when he drives to about 9-12 feet out and pulls up on a dime for his patented falling-forward jumper. We’re all familiar with that shot, right? He does it all the time. Yet it’s never set up by someone else…. always a Ray creation.

I’d say that so far, Ray’s playing some of his best basketball ever. If there’s been a change, it’s way too early to call it.

by DRJ1 on Dec 14, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Another consideration

Isn’t it possible that the bench unit would have been even worse without Ray? Isn’t possible that Ray makes a really bad bench a somewhat less bad bench?

by Elvischannel on Dec 14, 2010 11:16 AM EST reply actions  

I agree

What are Semih’s stats with ANY other 4 players?

by papa shuttlesworth on Dec 14, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

The same four bench players...

have been far better when teamed with either Von Wafer or Delonte West. It’s a weird phenomenon, and one which may not (probably doesn’t?) mean anything. But it’s interesting.

by Jay_King on Dec 14, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I will wait until Semih is no longer playing valuable minutes

to judge Ray plus four bench players. Because give Semihs minutes to Jermaine and I bet that points per 100 goes down a lot

by galvinx10 on Dec 14, 2010 11:26 AM EST reply actions  

Injuries

Does this lineup change things: Allen, Shaq/JO, Davis, West and Robinson. This assuming Perkins is back in the starting lineup. Who cares anyways, we’re 19-4 with a depleted team right now.

by shraq36 on Dec 14, 2010 11:30 AM EST reply actions  

Since coming to the Celtics, Ray Ray has never really acted as a shot creator

Sans possibly the ‘09 playoffs. Still, Ray is best moving without the ball, coming off of screens, even finishing on the break and pulling up with floaters, etc. From what I’ve seen this year, he’s still finishing at an excellent clip around the rim. If the second unit is looking for a guy to “create his own shot” and be that playmaker, then why has Doc abandoned Pierce with that group, as you’ve mentioned?

In addition, the sample size is simply too small at just 41 minutes. Had we looked at the 48 minutes from the Celtics-Cavs game on the second day of the season, not a lot of us would be happy. Give it time. Your sample size is less than two minutes a game, meaning that the group hasn’t even had any consistent time on the floor together. Also, wait until West and JO are back.

Ray certainly hasn’t lost his touch. He’s playing just as many minutes as ever, and is still in prime shape. From a pure fan perspective, I haven’t noticed a difference on the court. You say he’s been assisted on more shots than ever before. That’s true, but you’re talking a .2% difference from ‘09-’10 to ‘10-’11 and less than a 3% difference from ‘08-’09. While 07-08 was a little lower at 65%, but that could likely be attributed to a younger Rajon Rondo. Of course the numbers were lower in Seattle: he was the guy and took a lot more pull-up, not so open jumpers while there.

In short, I see where you’re coming from on your post, but like you said, the sample size is too small. In my opinion, it’s too small. To say his shooting doesn’t make other players better is crazy. Substitute Tony Allen for Ray and I guarantee you that Rajon wouldn’t be putting up the assist numbers he is, which in turn helps other teammates. I don’t see much of a difference from Ray from last year to this year, except that he’ shooting a hell of a lot better.

by Greg Knopping on Dec 14, 2010 11:54 AM EST reply actions  

I Think Ray Has Been Creating Shots For Others

What is a consistent difference in his game since coming here is that he is constantly improving his game. He’s going to the basket more and making defenders look as if they aren’t there. He’s also passing more, even some alley oops. There was one game when Shaq was in with second unit players and Ray. The only one consistently getting the ball to Shaq was Ray. And the point is when Shaq is on the floor he needs to get the ball down low so they use him to the Team’s advantage.

"I don't come to play, I come to WIN"--Larry Bird
"Criminally Negligent Officiating"--Tommy Heinsohn

by TrueGreen on Dec 14, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

remember the mid-season game last year without Ray?

It was like the first game Ray missed last year and we started Tony Allen instead?

My god, we got crushed as the other team (Hornets? Not sure) just sagged 4 guys with a foot in the paint and put a man tight on Paul so Paul couldn’t get a pass or shot off and couldn’t drive around his man because the paint was packed.

by mmmmm on Dec 14, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Sample size problem

Ray has forced a lot of bad passes early on this season while trying to facilitate and it will take a larger sample size to reduce the impact. That tends to be the problem with Ray facilitating — bad decision prone, but not to the degree he has been in the early season (though I don’t know how many of those plays were with exactly that lineup..

by guava_wrench on Dec 14, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

Agree with Guava

  I cringe when Ray tries to play point guard and bring the ball up and make the appropriate pass. It seems like he almost always gets stripped or makes a bad pass. PP does a better job tho he too occasionally gets stripped. They both need to get rid of the ball ASAP to a true PG.

by Dipper on Dec 14, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Here we go again Jay King...

Ray isn’t a shot creator. He doesn’t try to break down the defense and create his own shot. He’s a catch and shooter. The C’s system is to set picks for Ray, then when he’s open he catches the ball and shoots. He hasn’t lost his touch like you’re trying to suggest just like you suggested some inaccurates about Semih Erden a few days ago. Ray averages 16.7 Pts per-game so he’s doing something right. Understand he’s play with a ball-club where he doesn’t have to carry weight like he did with Bucks and Sonics.

by KWW on Dec 14, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

I get what your saying man, but give the kid a break. He is just getting his sea legs in a new forum. Plus he is trying to get people to think and debate. We cant agree on everything, you know.

by Warrior Spirit on Dec 15, 2010 12:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

ray is mister smooth. he’s good with whomever he plays with. i’m so glad he was resigned. i can see him someday taking over from danny after assisting him in the front office.

by nazzbo on Dec 14, 2010 12:16 PM EST reply actions  

Ray hasn’t been much of a ballhandler or set-up man since he’s been here.

anyone watching the games can see Ray’s turnovers (especially the most egregious ones) are almost always due to him getting his pocket picked while dribbling or trying to make a boneheaded pass.

when he’s not trying to be a playmaker, he rarely makes a turnover. He needs to stick with what he does best which is shoot or if passing, do it with minimal ballhandling and difficulty required.

This observation probably has little to do with the decline of the second unit’s efficiency this year but perhaps he’s trying to take on more of a role that he’s ill-suited for.

by slamtheking on Dec 14, 2010 12:52 PM EST reply actions  

This is a lay up.

First, aside from the obvious SSS problem you have to look at what role Ray is providing with the second unit.

In the prior 3 years, the biggest, most obviously painful shortcoming of our bench has been the lack of a 2nd consistent outside threat. For the first 3 years we mostly had just Eddie and then last year we traded Eddie for Nate.

This meant, if we went to an all-bench unit we had only one guy who could draw close coverage outside the arc. The other 4 defenders could stay in or near the paint, waiting to cut off our other guys who were all slashers.

To counter this, Ray has been the obvious antidote. Put him on the floor and suddenly the defense moves to adjust to HIS presence on the floor. Now, two guys have to stay out of the paint to defend the perimeter and only 3 could sag in the paint. That is a huge difference.

Okay, let’s roll up to 2010-2011 season:

This year, our weakness on the bench is not outside shooting. Aside from the injured Delonte’, we have Nate, Wafer, Harangody, Bradley and a remodeled Marquis Daniels all able to shoot from way outside. So the floor spacing value that Ray brings, while still great, is of less marginal value than in prior years.

The actual weakness this year in the second unit has been in the interior – where we are so ridiculously thin because of injuries to Perkins, JO, Shaq & Semih. Ray simply cannot make up for that unless he grows 4-5 inches!

by mmmmm on Dec 14, 2010 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Right on the money.

The good news, hopefully, is that someday there’ll be an embarrassment of riches at that post position. Hopefully. My one nagging qualm: JO may just be a near-permanent DNP, using one excuse after another to avoid facing his (irrational) performance anxiety. Ugh to that.

by DRJ1 on Dec 14, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed

Great post, completly agree with you. I also don’t necessarily buy the not a shot creator anymore. I agree that he is much more of a shot maker, but I don’t think he was that much of a shot creator in his past two seasons with the C’s in the first place, so I wouldn’t attribute that as a factor in the performance of the bench unit now.

by wisco87 on Dec 14, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Ideally

we are not playing four bench players at once.

BTW – when Shaq wasn’t starting he counted as bench player, when he is starting he doesn’t – peculiar. I think looking at specific lineups is more telling.

by Brendan on Dec 14, 2010 1:11 PM EST reply actions  

Hey Hey now

As a Suffield Academy Alum I take issue with the Del Negro comment…but you are probably correct =). However, reality aside, I have an obligation to say the Vinny Del Nelgro is a really nice guy in person…

by SoxAcumen on Dec 14, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

The starting of the article

Is what really made me laugh

“Some things in life are unexplainable.
A third is that Mikki Moore was once considered the Celtics’ missing piece”

Hahahaha, i remember when I first heard that. Gosh it’s still funny to this day…

by OsirusCeltics on Dec 14, 2010 9:40 PM EST reply actions  

Most laughable celtics moment since a cupcske in a dink contest, oops meant dunk contest, but that works too

by Warrior Spirit on Dec 15, 2010 12:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Ray Allen

Ray is having his best season since joining the Celtics. Granted he is not the shooter he was years ago in Milwaukee, but his overall game has improved tremendously. I don’t know who you are watching, this guy never stops. I bet this year he has his most assists since joining the Celtics. Stop and watch him for a while. He is perpetual motion, getting other guys free and scoring. Sorry, this assumption is dead wrong.

by rosalie on Dec 14, 2010 11:07 PM EST reply actions  

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