Will This Year Be Different? Beware The January Slide
by Jeff Clark on Dec 6, 2010 4:00 AM EST
in Boston Celtics Articles
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PrintThis team owns October, November, and December. January, not so much. It is almost as if they leave their A game home during the holidays. Lets review:
- In 2007-8, the Celtics started 29-3 through Jan. 5, had a few bumps in the road with 5 losses in January, righted the ship and went on to win the title.
- In 2008-9 the Celtics started 27-2 through Dec. 24, lost 7 of their next 9, lost Kevin Garnett essentially for the rest of the year, managed to turn things around for a good stretch run, and eventually fizzled out against the Magic in the playoffs.
- In 2009-10 the Celtics started out 23-5 through Dec. 25, lost three straight and basically finished the season playing .500 ball before putting things together in the playoffs and eventually falling just 6 minutes short of a Championship.
- So far this year the Celtics are 16-4 and despite an older lineup and a growing list of bumps, bruises, and significant injuries, the team isn't showing any signs of slowing down... yet.
So the question begs to be asked. Will this team have another January slide?
Granted, 2007-8 and last year taught us that a bad January doesn't necessarily doom our long-term chances. You can roll out the "it's a marathon, not a sprint" cliche and you'd of course be right. Also, just about every team goes through bumps in the road at some point in their season. Still, it is a concerning trend and one that bares watching.
This is looking ahead, but the Celtics have some good competition on the schedule in January. San Antonio, Chicago, Utah, Orlando, and the Lakers are all on the playlist. Also, we won't have Kendrick Perkins back yet (probably out till Feb.) and we might not even have Delonte West back (who knows?). So we'll be right in that not-so-sweet spot where the regulars are getting tired and the calvary is still a few miles away from arriving to help.
With all that said, here are some reasons why this year might be different.
Bitter taste: They paid for their bad record by having no home court advantage for most of the playoffs and of course the Finals. They were rightly embarrassed by that regular season effort and had all offseason to stew about the Finals and every little thing that could have made a difference.
Sheed vs. Shaq: I can't put everything at the feet of Rasheed (especially when he wasn't there in past years) - but he's an example of the kind of attitude that says "that's ok, we'll punt till the playoffs." In his earlier years that attitude sometimes plagued Shaquille O'Neal as well - especially in relation to conditioning. But the older, wiser Shaq knows his time is short and he's focused on finishing on a high note. So far so good.
Rajon Rondo: In the past Rondo has been hot and cold. Always very talented and even an All Star last year, but not always dominant. This year he's been consistently one of the best players in the league. He stands out on a team of standouts. In the past he got flack for looking better because of the Big Three. Now he's carrying them and prolonging their careers.
KG's Knee: You could plot this teams peaks and valleys and overlay them on a chart of KG's health status and you'd probably find them to line up very closely. It is hard to call anyone on this team the MVP (though Rondo's making more of a case by each game). Let's just say that like Voltron, having all the pieces together makes the team greater than the sum of its parts. Losing one or limiting one due to injury leaves the team vulnerable.
The Sniff Test: I don't really know how to define this, but this year's team just sort of feels different. Seeing Nate run around in Shaq's shoes in camp reminded me of the Rome bonding trip in 2007. Daniels looks better in number 8 than he did in 7. Pierce is having a fantastic year and yet seems happy to let Rondo take the center stage. There's no more talk of trading Ray. There's no looming free agency for half the team (though the lockout is there for everyone to worry about).
There are still let-down games, but this year they seem to be determined to make up for it the next time out. It isn't any one thing, but the sum of all these things is just ...different. I think. I hope.
At the end of the day, January means much less than June, but to get to June and finish well we might need a better January than in years past. Oh yeah, and we should probably keep focusing on December while we're here.
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Honestly
at the rate they are going, I don’t see them losing more than one game UNTIL January…
This team will be deeper in a few weeks when Jermaine is back and Rondo is a little more established health-wise. Until then, keep feeding Marquis those minutes doc! As long as he’s slashing towards the basket and rebounding, the celtics will be a ferocious force to be reckoned with.
If nothing is worth dying for, then nothing is worth living for.
~Chuck Coleson
Well fortunately
Rajon is being very cautious with his body. “Sore hamstrings” are typical injuries that players play on all the time, so it wouldn’t be uncommon for somebody like Rajon to play without giving it much heed. I do however admire him greatly for being able to use his foresight and practicality in better judgement. Hopefully the plantar fasciitis goes away fast; I know he’s missed some games already due to that, but hopefully the severity of that is all in the rear view mirror at this stage.
If nothing is worth dying for, then nothing is worth living for.
~Chuck Coleson
Brave vs Smart
People are often praised for playing through minor injuries, but aren’t those who opt to take the smart route and those who see the bigger picture more worthy of praises?
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell
by Marjun Raposon on Dec 6, 2010 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Players also go out due to hamstring and PF issues.
I wish the C’s had been more cautious and had held him out for that 4th game that would have given him an additional five days rest originally. Max was adamantly opposed to putting in for that game and IMO he’s now being proved right.
yo its his body you have no idea what it might be…Just be glad hes not jermaine oneal haha
by kobeshesnotconsenting! on Dec 6, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Difference
The main difference between this season and past seasons is that we have the opportunity to give our starting 5 rest when the team is up, due to legitimate back up players who gel well together, and not risk giving away a strong lead.
With the miles under the legs of our starters, mainly due to their respective ages, in the past players have been worn down now that the grind of the season sets in at this stage of the schedule.
This current team, injuries removed, stands to stay relatively rested throughout most contests, unless tight affairs, and without starters playing 35+ minutes there should not be a slide or dip in performance or output. This team has great chemistry at the moment and the season is still young.
Look for the C’s to post a considerable record in the east come the All-Star break.
Nah
Bottom line is injuries. Bumps and bruises, no problem. Lingering injuries and long spans without players and everything gets undermined. That’s true for every team, but given the age and history of some of the players, this team is suspect.
I’m hoping it doesn’t get too bad, but the injury bug is the only thing I’m concerned about this season. If reasonably healthy, this team beats everyone.
Jan and March are the toughest schedules for the c's
Janunary has 16 games, 4 back to backs, 6 games are with quality/playoff type opponents, there’s a tough stretch between Jan 2 to Jan 8 with 2 back to backs – 5 games in 7 days, there’s another tough stretch at the end of the month with a road trip to Portland, Phoenix and LA.
To help offset things,the c’s have a good homestand of 10 games out of 16, if they make it through Jan with minimal injuries, they have the month of Feb to recover. Only 11 games in Feb with one back to back and the all-star break though there’s a 4 game road trip at the end of the month.
Thanks for noticing
Of course I’m the biggest reason the Celtics are primed to take back the ’Chip!
Everything Celtics (including this blog) revolves around me-LOL!
In all seriousness though
Rondo has been brilliant, but KG has been in flat out BEAST MODE!
So KG has a list, huh? Anyone want to bet a certain llama named Neckbeard is at the top of that list? We’ve all seen what has happened to the players on KG’s “list” so far.
Somewhere Pau just soiled himself.
Pbtpbtpbt.
The train is headed for him and he knows it, but just cant get out of the way.
by Warrior Spirit on Dec 6, 2010 9:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
January slides...not likely this year
The last two both began during Christmas week in Los Angeles.
2009 : Loss to Clippers brought about a 6-11 slide
2008 : Loss to Lakers brought about a 2-7 slide.
This year, Celts don`t visit there until Jan. 30th.
It's the single biggest reason why this January will be different.
When I looked at the schedule I noticed that right away. No west coast trip after the christmas game. The last two years the christmas game was followed with a game the next night. I would def bet on a different outcome this January.
On a lighter note (and a different topic)
KG’s reverse layup against the Nets is in the NBA TV’s top ten plays of the night. That sure is rare.
"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell
small slide in late Jan
But 37-10 at the end of January on the way to 65-17 and hc through p[layoffs. We win it all. If not for all these injuries, we’d have gone 72-10 or better. Just needed D West and JO to stay on the floor through February
I think it will depend on motivation...
as we head into January and the dog days of the regular season the key will be if the C’s will be motivated to try to win (even with injuries) as many regular season games as possible this season to try to build a sense of dominance and also try to achieve home court in the playoffs.
If they do seek to do they above they should be fine but if they want to slack off and just wait for the playoffs to turn it on they will face another winter slide.
Time will tell what route they take.
Interesting topics lately.
Injuries
Jan. Swoon
next up KG when does he go down?
"Do you know that nonbelievers create the most positive energy?" Davis said
"KG's knee" (i.e. 'health') and Rondo's more consistent level of play
are the reasons I think they’ll be fine.
The other reasons are just too fluffy. But the effect of not having KG (or Paul or Ray) on the floor is very clear and measurable over the last 3+ years.
With all of the “Big 3” on the floor – even when banged up – this team plays at a .752 winning percentage. Otherwise, they have played at a .656 clip. Still decent (because like I said, that still includes games with at least 1 or 2 of the Big 3), but that’s a difference of 9 wins over an 82 game schedule.
it’s all about the injuries. maybe, just maybe jermaine comes back healthy. that would be one sweet bonus. i don’t see shaq going all the way. and semih is one bad push away from an operation.
Just sayin
Yall can tell me to shut it. And it doesnt mean a thing, could so easily change, in fact is likely to.
But the season is 25% over (doesnt feel like it, tho) and the C’s are on pace for how many wins?
by Warrior Spirit on Dec 6, 2010 10:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
If we can go 16-4 the rest of the season that’s atleast 64 wins… As high as 66 wins. This month has a couple gimmies…Philly twice…Detroit and Indy twice which isn’t as much a gimmie as the other two. The rest of the games are against what will mostly be playoff teams. Even with the injurys we should put up a good fight. Kg seems closer to 100% than last year…and baring a serious rondo injury we are poised to have a winning month. January allways scares me but like u said it just feels different. Like Roy Rogers riding off into the sunset. Like the last battle these basketball warriors know they will be in. It’s the end they know it’s comming..they see it. So guys like shaq and JO are desprate…when on the court it’s their last chance to shine….Paul Kevin Ray and rondo are still burning about the last 6 minutes of last season. I watched that interview with Paul kevin and Ray befriend game one and they and I were genuinely hurt angry and emotional about how last season ended. You could just see it in their eyes their body language and demenor. It scar’d them…me too. Ray looks more focused than the last two seasons. Paul looks angry. Kg looks hungry to proove he still has it. Rondo has that swag that bravado and confidence that an elite pg needs. Like I got this! I can beat you! I know it…u know it! He feels no body can stop him from running this team…..he’s right! Nate’s stopped bs’n glen is fearless and trying to proove he is starter material…west when he gets back is trying to proove that he belongs and is still a tallent. Daniels is trying to stay healthy but show his versitility. This whole team is goal orriented. Title or bust! With out u have a wasted season. With a title celtics lore writes a new chapter. My best friend out hear in Cali is a lakers fan. Die hard. A legit fan. Knows his shit.Shout out Jeremy carlson! Lol he watches games to keep an eye on the compitition. He told me week one. See u in the finals…I said only if u guys get there too. He sees rondo as a laker killer. Shaq as a scary traitor….and Ray as the ageless wonder who is still the scaryist shooter on earth…ie bulls game! He as a student of the game sees a different yet fromiliar c’s team ready for revenge. I love astute people.
Celtic pride ride or die!
I believe this squad can equal its 1st go rounds total.
Shaq was right, they gave lost 4 games but have not been beat once.
by Warrior Spirit on Dec 7, 2010 9:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Also I live the double screen they run with Nate. Nate at the top of the three point line… Glen and semi simaltaniously run up together to set a dual screen for Nate and it’s beautiful. Nobody else uses this. It’s brilliant. More of this pleez. Ray Paul and rondo could use this too in different ways doc.
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