Last Shot

The team has gotten a good dose of reality—-3 teams that they’ll probably have to go through to get the title and they lost all 3 games.

This is the team’s wake-up call. No way they can reasonably sit back and not think that they need to be bringing a full effort every game to win. How they handle the rest of the season will be a good indicator for how they’ll play in the playoffs.

The talent is there to win. As they demonstrated, they can play with anyone when they decide to. The problem has been that they haven’t decided to play for 48 minutes. They are their own worst enemies.

Lakers game showed what they could do when focussed. Unfortunately from the top 6 players, Sheed wasn’t focussed in the first half and PP wasn’t focussed in the second which made things difficult. The end of the game was a complete mess. A fully focussed team from top to bottom and from start to finish wins that game.

to intergrate a new player into the fold. After viewing the last three tragedies, I also have serious doubts about this team getting #18. My con cerns about the C’s reside mostly above their shoulders. Doc, and Danny, must finally pound a few heads together and open some eyes to reality and maybe get these guys to look at that window of opportunity closing down to the last few inches. A trade of Ray, if nothing else, will do that.

And, no, beating Washington tonight doesn’t make things all better.

just because we are almost at full strength back doesnt mean we are playing our best. it will take time for the team to get its mojo back as everyone returns from injury.

Give it time!

I still believe!

I don’t even know about that! I always knew they “could” lose, but I still think they “will” win. I still believe that Kevin is still getting his legs, and Paul and Ray are playing too many minutes, but that situation will be remedied when Marquis returns.

Last night was the first time in a long time that I felt the team put in the effort to the end of the game. The attitude has changed, and our chances are increasing again.

We need to trade Ray Allen to win a ring THIS season! He is a role player at this point and I can`t believe people are still reluctant to trade him…if we can get Igoudala, Martin, Monta (+bad contract) we need to do it.

We saw yesterday what a little athleticism and defense at the SG spot brings to this team…

The half court ofense is stagnant. Teams have figured out how to guard us. In these last three games the opponents have executed offense, gotten more open shots than us.
Like everyone, I want to blame someone and change whoever/whatever it is. Turnovers and missed free throws are not at championship level. But it’s not that simple. Trading expiring contracts is the fantasy fan’s pseudo fix for everything, mindless of the fact that you need a dummy on the other end to make it a good deal for you (and McHale and Isiah aren’t sitting on the other side of that door anymore).

But this is a very likable team, capable of sublime basketball when all cylinders are firing. And that’s the great unknown – will they be come playoff time. It’s entertaining enough to ride it to the end as constituted.

Now for some 2nd guessing. TA was awesome in the first half. Ray couldn’t get open, Tony slashed effectively. Both played good defense on Kobe but why not more Tony in 2nd half? I can see inserting Scal and not inserting Scal in these 3 games but why doesn’t Sheldon get some minutes when we’re getting our rear ends kicked on the boards. Glen Davis, after all, is not playing well.

If Danny Ainge plays his cards right, he could deal for an upgrade at the 2-guard spot and still get Ray Allen back if he is bought out. And David Stern aside, those that think there is no unwritten agreement to buy out a traded player are deluding themselves. Whether Ray goes for Iguadola (and who wouldn’t like to have him guarding the likes of Bryant, James, Wade, etc?) or Ellis or Caron Butler, it would depend upon which team agrees to release him afterwards. Ray signs on again after the 30-day period and The C’s have their shooter off the bench.

Next he adds a stretch four either by picking up someone who has been cut or trading Scalabrine, Tony and Giddens for a salary dump. A Matt Bonner type would be very good here in limited playing time. It’s another way to make teams quit doubling down on KG and Wallace.

That immediately defeats the idea of clogging the middle and leaving the shooters. It also frees Pierce from having to play the best 2-guards/small forwards.

That said ….

Has Doc already seen enough of Shelden Williams to know he’s going to be no help? Waiting for Big Baby or Uno Uno to come around may be like Waiting For Godot.

Pierce with the ball in his hands at the end of a quarter and either going one-on-one or making a play is a mistake. Put the rock in the point guard’s hands and let him create. That’s what he does – at an all-star level I might add. I’ve been keeping track over the last month the success rate of Pierce handling the ball in these circumstances. Less than 20% of the time is a score the result.

Tony Allen hardly played in the second half after a terrific first half because Doc “thought he was getting too fast.” Huh? That’s a new one. I suppose he’d rather live with his all-stars throwing the ball away. Whatever happened to sticking with the hot hand?

Another one from Doc: “The team went into a stall the last 5 minutes and you can’t do that with the 24-second clock.” Excuse me, but isn’t the coach supposed to be instructing the players in how he wants the game played?

You never know what could happen come playoff time… If the Lakers lost Kobe to an injury, they wouldn’t win the title… Maybe Cleveland knocks off the Magic and we face a depleted Cleveland team? Who knows…

What I do know is I’d like to see Doc hit anyone who misses a 3-pt jumper in the face. This would encourage the team to go to the post more and take better shots. A trade or two wouldn’t hurt either…

Outscored in the fourth quarter in 12 of the 14 games they played in january. In the last 16 games in which they had leads of double digits, they have lost 8 of those games. And, I do not see how this team will be 100 percent or even 90 percent healthy when the playoffs come. It’s just not there this year.

Sorry Jeff, I disagree. I think the team could make a big trade (Allen) and still encorporate the player into the system in time to be ready for the playoffs. If it happens (a big if by the way) you will be posting an article that we are done? Or that it can still work?

This team is dead. The Celtics will face several more years of declining relevance with the older players in and out of the lineup with injuries. If they do manage to win games against good teams, it will be Rondo who wins them. There will be fewer playoff games and fewer games on national TV. Attendance will decline. Three years from now the Celtics will once again be a lottery team.

Ainge can either jump start the rebuilding process by making major changes now to bring in talented younger players, or suffer the consequences.

I have been saying for months Doc Rivers is the problem. I mean on so many different levels is he the problem, for instance the over all effort. All coaches go through this with a team. So the starter sits’ on the bench & you put in someone else. If he does not work you put in a rookie. My point is there job security is there constant contribution game after game. We don’t get that from this team! The only reason is Doc River has lost control of the asylum. If he would get his noise of the big three’s AZZ and understand he has young players that can run at the start of a game and the end of a game, everybody will be playing for job security.

WE SHOULD MAKE HIM UNDERSTAND HE NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND JOB SECURITY.
Of course we need to make some change but not with Ray Allen. No point guard I repeat no point guard with Ray Allens’ ability is going to keep quite and let PP be the number option.

The game with Lakers was the highest level of basketball the team has played all year. They played Celtic basketball, but we lost. I say that because some people think the only way to play Celtic ball is to win, thats not true.

As many of the readers in this site may not remember the 68-69 season when the c’s finished 4th, stuggling to make the playoffs, I take losses with much less moaning and gnashing of teeth AKA fear. These games are all practice and learning. Qualifying for the playoffs is important. The season begins then. Getting healthy…..Daniels being key to getting House back to 2 or at least off the ball will make a difference. Daniels penetrating and dishing will make a difference. We are lucky to have such a competitive team. Be grateful. Let’s go Celtics.

A few days ago, I wrote that the loss to the Magic was the toughest loss to take this season. Well, that was until yesterday’s loss to the Lakers. I am still trying to break it down, and trying to figure out why Tony Allen did not play more in the second half (never thought I would be writing that sentence). He deserved it with his offense and defense, as well as Ray’s poor shooting. But one thing is actually clear to me. Do not trade Ray as a solution. ESPN’s Daily Dime has an article this morning making the argument that the time has possible come to trade Ray. I realize Ray’s expiring contract makes him an attractive to move, but why not trade Eddie House instead and have Ray come off the bench as a sixth man? Essentially, he would play Eddie’s role, only he would bring better defense. If we package Eddie with Walker and Scal, I have to think we can get a decent, young shooting guard to play with Rondo. Then, your second unit will consist of Sheed, Daniels, Ray Allen, Tony Allen and Big Baby. Daniels and Allen would split bringing the ball up the court when Rondo sits. Not ideal, but better than we have. Next season, Ray can sign for less money, as he has indicated he is willing to do, and then we can bring in a better (and still younger) guard to play with Rondo.

I have not read anything yet this morning on the subject, but it has to be clear to all those watching yesterday that KG is bothered by the knee injury, whether it is the same problem as last year or something new this year, or both. He was a gamer yesterday but he seemed slow and in discomfort. Sheed spelling him off the bench is not the answer. I am not going to join th chorus putting all the blame on Sheed, although many points made on this blog about his laziness, attitude and offensive ineptitude are valid. We need an energeting backup for KG (e.g Tyrus Thomas) to get KG some rest for the playoffs. Without KG, we will not get to the promised land. Also, although Perk missed some FT’s toward the end yesterday, I like him in the 4Q much more than Sheed.

The reason to trade Ray instead of Eddie is because you would get better quality back in a trade of Ray. I don’t believe if we keep Ray and try to resign him this summer (for whatever amount) we will be able to bring in any kind of good young guard. A trade is the only way to get something of value going forward be it Hinrich or whomever.

But championships are won by superstars in this league, and we need to ride this group of superstars as far as they will take us (and deal with next year in the offseason).

I agree with the premise that championships are won by superstars in this league. I disagree that we can ride this group to a championship because they are no longer superstars. KG is nowhere near a superstar anymore. He’s as much a superstar at this point as Iverson is (and is equally undeserving of his all-star selection). Ray is a nice player, but not a superstar. PP comes closest, but he’s a second tier star at this point, so I don’t think riding this group of “superstars” as far as they will take us is going to get us far at all. A shakeup is needed. You either cash in Ray’s contract before the 18th, or you lose the opportunity to do so and have only the MLE with which to work next year.

That’s why I still don’t want to hear about trading Ray for “young legs.” That would not put us in position to win the title this year. Fundamentally changing the roster by that much mid season would never give us enough time to learn how to play together and win a title. In addition, I don’t think you can bring in anyone that is available on the market and know for sure that they will be able to help us win a title in the next few years with Rondo and an aging KG and Pierce. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see it. (note: Chris Sheridan appears to disagree with me)

I think the thing to do to avoid falling off a cliff in the next couple of years is to trade the Old 3’s expirings in the respective years that they expire. You might get lucky enough this year to get back enough value from Ray’s contract that you actually improve the team’s chances this year. In any event, I don’t think that the team has the stuff to win the ‘chip this year with the Old 3, Quis, and even upgrading our non-Ray expirings, so I’m for cashing in Ray while we can before the 18th. It’s not about just getting ‘young legs’. It’s about production too. I think it’s possible to not only get young legs but also get production that will be at least equal to what Ray gives this year, with the bonus of avoiding further fall off next year.

He has played too many minutes, hit huge buckets and often guarded the other teams best player for much of the game. However, he has gotten torched anyway by Johnson, he can’t guard Kobe real well, and Chicago lit him up real good last year too. His shooting is taling off. If we can replace him with a younger guy with a great handle who is a great defender, and is a decent shooter though not an all time great like Ray we SHOULD do it. If in addition you get another young guy(Thomas) who will be in the league for years, there is not a lot to think about.

Ray has been great. Id keep him if I could. But….he is probably worth more right now in what we can get for him

1. Trade Ray Allen

I doubt if Hinrich is the answer, but Monta Ellis might be. If they do trade for Hinrich, I want Tyrus Thomas, not Salmons.

2. Get rid of the trash: Scalabrine, House, Williams, Walker, Giddens. Get whatever you can, Second round picks would be ok. I would trade Davis too, if the deal was right. For example, Davis to New Orleans for Julian Wright makes alot of sense for both teams.

3. Give TA more playing time to rest Pierce, who is obviously playing at half speed.

4. I would consider a trade of ANY PLAYER on the roster if it would fetch younger talent and/or draft picks.

My guess is that it would be very difficult to trade KG, Pierce or Sheed at the deadline, but you never know. KG to Houston for McGrady and picks is something I would consider at this point.

The good news is that the Celtics will likely be picking in the early 20’s this year, which increases the chance of getting a good player and could help in draft day trade scenarios.

One thing I trust in is Ainge’s eye for talent if he does pull the trigger on something for Ray. When the Rondo rumors were out there last summer there was talk of Scaremento’s pick coming back and Evans being the guy Danny liked. A number of people dissed the potential pick but Tyreke will end up being the rookie of the year.

Jeff, while I find your post illuminating, I disagree with your reason for not trading Ray. Let me explain…

That’s why I still don’t want to hear about trading Ray for “young legs.” That would not put us in position to win the title this year. Fundamentally changing the roster by that much mid season would never give us enough time to learn how to play together and win a title.

This point would be valid only if you assume certain things are more likely to occur than not. The problem is, the evidence actually leads us in the opposite direction of what you think will likely occur. For example, The Big 3 is not going to improve over time. But let’s assume that you’re right, and trading Ray will not help us win this year. But how marginally better is the team with Ray still on board? What about next year? And the year after that? This is not a knock on Ray personally, but rather a recognition that as our stars age, their skills decline even as they become more susceptible to injury. For some reason, many Cs fans talk about last year as if it’s an aberration, when in fact, it is more likely to be the norm going forward – expect one or more of the Big Three to go down with injury. And no, they will never fully recover and play at their pre-injury form consistently, given that time continues to erode their skills.

In addition, I don’t think you can bring in anyone that is available on the market and know for sure that they will be able to help us win a title in the next few years with Rondo and an aging KG and Pierce. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see it

This part of your post is a bit baffling because we all know there are no guarantees in life, unless you have a crystal ball. Heck, many of us were very sure of a repeat last year, but it didn’t happen either. Planning for the future requires an objective assessment of the situation.

To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, "…"there are known knowns – things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns – we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know. We know aging players are susceptible to injury and a decline in skills. We know we cannot know for sure whether a promising player will indeed live up to third potential. Then there are those unknown unknowns – Len Bias – need I say more?

So, I don’t think a trade should be based on an accompanying guarantee of success (otherwise Greg Oden would never have been a lottery pick; Len bias would have been picked and imemdiately traded the same day). What I know for sure is that keeping the team as it is will inevitably lead to decline. That’s a known known.

If our goal is to play entertaining and somewhat competitive basketball, then I would agree with you. But if the goal is to win a championship, then that requires an objective assessment of the team a it’s currently constructed, and making some painful but necessary adjustments. The Big 3 are getting older, slower, and may be often injured going forward. That last part is a known unknown. Do we pretend otherwise, or face the facts and act accordingly.

Now, what is not so predictable, or the unknown unknown in this equation is whether making a trade for a younger player with potential would pan out. But just as Red went for Len Bias, and Portland for Greg Oden, I prefer those odds to staying put.

Winning it all requires a little luck and a lot of talent. Last year, the C’s were probably short in both departments. KG’s injury and the lack of any solid bench play were crushing blows and they still took Orlando to seven games.

This year, they have the talent, on the bench, and in the starting lineup. KG is getting his wind back and gaining confidence in his knee with each game. If he says his knee is fine, then it probably is, but his body will take a while to believe it. If Glen Davis can start contributing like he did last year and Marquis comes back strong, then the bench will be much improved over last year.

What we need is a little bit of luck. Guys need to stay mostly healthy and Ray and Eddie need to get hot at the appropriate times.

No doubt, other teams have improved relative to the last championship season, but the Celtics with a healthy KG are still right there.

Last year we didn’t win the Championship even though, then as now:

the key point is this year – the other point only follows as a result

And that statement would be true for any year, including next year. The problem with looking at it this way is. It’s like tomorrow never comes. What if we had done the Ray deal last year?

We can get better this year because with luck KG will get in better game shape and get his timing back and be healthy (like I said, with luck).

I believe in luck, but NOT the kind of luck that equates playing the lottery to a savings account or investing. They say, “luck is when opportunity meets preparedness”. We were lucky trading for KG and RA when we did in the sense that we had prepared for years to take advantage of that opportunity when it presented itself. Even then, you recall the noise about giving up too much for KG, and we’re talking Gerald Green et al at the time.

But let’s assume luck smiles on us and KG gets back in "better game shape and get his timing back and be healthy ". What exactly does that mean though? Better game shape compared to what? Compared to his first pre-injury shape, or his second pre-injury shape? Or something totally different? The known knowns in this equation suggests none of these lucky occurrences would put KG anywhere near the playing shape, health, and stamina he had during the championship year. That is a known known because as players get older, their skills and health take a hit. Assuming KG never gets injured, accounting for age alone, we can assume a slight yearly decline in motor skills, timing, strength, right? Does a less than 100% KG suffice to win a championship, especially when you factor in the other 2 stars will also be experiencing the same age related decline? There is no question they will all decline, so the only known unknown is the rate at which their decline will occur. Hence it behooves the Cs not to dosomething, and it must be done at the best possible time for value..

Bottom line, I think trading Ray for just about anyone puts us farther away from the title this year, which I can’t support.

The premise of your conclusion is flawed. You want to win now, but you cannot do it with the team you have, and it only gets worse over time. The goal of the Cs is not to have a winning record, or get into the playoffs, or make the finals. The goal is to compete for, and to win championships. If we’re honest, we’re really not competing for a championship with the way we’re playing at this time – Atlanta, Orlando, and Cleveland are doing that better than us. Sure, we could get really lucky and beat any of these teams in the playoffs; Dwight Howard might retire abruptly and move to Nepal to become a monk, King James might renounce basketball and take up baseball, etc. But if you base each team’s play purely on the merits at this time, the only people getting better are the younger teams who are getting healthier, faster, stronger, more skilled, more experienced, more confident, and by consequence much hungrier for a Championship.

Now, which is preferable… getting a younger player who may (or may not) put us farther away from this year’s championship, but also helps us compete for the championship for many years to come, or keeping Ray who we know for sure is in decline, and who’s trade value is transitory?

I think we should def look at the possibility with Monta Ellis….Monta Ellis and Rondo make a really quick back court. Our shooting from outside hasn’t been great. We def lose some of that potential outside threat w Ray but you get a scoring boost and quickness boost and some fresh legs. This teams needs some youth.

You get the best deal for Ray you can. Once the deadline passes, his value is gone. He’ll be lucky to get the MLE as a free agent.

Of course, Celtics ownership could just let his deal expire and pocket the money. But that is not exactly a championship-driven strategy.

reggie35…

What we need is a little bit of luck. Guys need to stay mostly healthy and Ray and Eddie need to get hot at the appropriate times. No doubt, other teams have improved relative to the last championship season, but the Celtics with a healthy KG are still right there.

I’m sure the guys would love to stay healthy, but then age isn’t co-operating. We need to stop acting as if somehow our stars are exempt from these laws of nature. Please let’s get used to the idea of a less than 100% KG as the norm. Next year is going to be an even further decline for all 3 stars. Meanwhile we are not adding any fresh talent of equal value. I think that’s a big mistake.

… my confidence in this team improved after yesterday. But I’m funny like that.
I thought we’d COMPLETELY cave. We only marginally caved, and that, after a great first-half comeback. It seems to me most every other team in the league is vulnerable and not dominant. That creates an opening for us. But if we’re not healthy and in synch soon after the all-star break, it’s over.

Danny and Doc like this team. There is a roster spot. I go with their opninion. I think they are closer to the situation. This is not the playoffs.

We were one open jumper (in the hands of the greatest shooter in the game) away from winning yesterday.

That jumper wasn’t anything close to open, and Pierce botched that play — we didn’t need to go to the third option, even more so when we didn’t really need a three, and when Ray has been unable to hit the broadside of a barn all night… So I don’t see how this can be good news.