Quick Peek Ahead To The Summer
I'll say up front that this is pretty premature. For the moment, it really doesn't matter at all what happens this summer or after that. We knew when we got KG that the window was probably about 3 years and this might be our last grasp with this core group. If all you care about is titles, then all that matters is what happens in the next few months.
With that said, I can't help it. For the past several weeks, and really for the last couple years, all we've heard about is how important this summer is for just about every team in the NBA. As an added wrinkle, the NBA is hurtling downhill towards a lockout in the following summer. So future is rightfully on the minds of many, especially fans.
The primary driving force behind Danny shopping Ray Allen was about the future. The best option would have been to trade him for a star player signed beyond this year (and perhaps get Ray back). That option didn't work out for one reason or another so now Ray becomes a free agent after the year. So what does that mean for the team?
For one thing, it does not mean that we can sign someone else with the money that Ray is making now. Loyal readers of this site should have that reality down pat by now. Because of the contracts that we have on the books, we'll already be over the cap with just 6 players on the roster (assuming Paul picks up his option, which i'm pretty sure he will).
Now I won't wade too far into the CBA rules and capology because Roy Hobbes is going to take care of that at some point. But I can tell you that we do have the ability to resign guys already on the team. However, to get someone from the free agent market, we'll be limited to the Mid Level Exception and minimum level contracts.
There is still a chance that the team could get some players via a sign-and-trade of our free agents. However, I'm not sure how well that would work with Ray Allen. The teams that might be interested in him are competitors and few will be willing to give up young, highly talented pieces in return for the right to pay him more than the Mid Level. Also, I'm pretty sure nobody is going to give Scalabrine or Tony Allen much more than the veteran minimum. We'll see how Nate Robinson works out. If he isn't the answer we could move him and/or Marquis Daniels a smaller sign and trade deal.
The safe, easy, kick the can down the road option would be to resign Ray, Marquis, and Nate to short term deals. We could fill out the roster with rookies and vet minimum guys. Of course that would mean getting another year older and leaving us open to many of the same issues that plagued the team this year.
The radical option would be to blow everything up Wizards style. That doesn't make a lot of sense either. Even if you found a taker for Kevin Garnett's huge contract, you would only be saving a year off his deal (and I have to point out, after next year, that will be a massive expiring contract that some team might be willing to give up a lot to get). Also, as long as Wyc Grousbeck is the part owner, I think the chances of us actually trading Paul Pierce are somewhere between slim and none. For good reason I might add.
So the plan is probably somewhere in between. Next year will likely be a transition year. It will be about bridging the gap between the current core and the year of shopping KG and Sheed's expiring deals around the league (the following summer into the following year). Also, Rondo will likely take his place as the new face of the franchise.
Getting back to this summer, we don't have many movable trade assets. Glen Davis might bring back a player or two. Good luck getting rid of Sheed. We've got our own draft picks, but we'll need to keep them if we have any hope of getting some young talent. If anything, I think Danny will be looking to buy some picks in the draft this year and next. So Danny will have to get creative.
One outside the box option that I think the team should at least consider is trading Kendrick Perkins. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big, big, big Perkins fan. I couldn't see any rationale behind trading him this year. He's central to our defensive plan and he's too valuable to lose on this team. However, he'll be a free agent after next year and chances are he'll need to be signed to a large contract. Right now he's a bargain at just over 4 million a year, but top talent centers (even non-All-Stars) make some serious coin. He's been very healthy the last two years, but he's put a lot of miles behind him and big, lumbering centers tend to fall off quickly. Bottom line, if we could get some good pieces for him, we should look into it.
The other option to explore is to consider taking on salary in exchange for picks or young players. In other words, we could trade Sheed for a longer term bad contract and a draft pick. Of course that might hurt the potential option of signing a free agent or two when KG's contract comes off the books.
You'll have to forgive the winding, rambling nature of this post. I think it speaks to the large amount of uncertainty this summer promises to bring. Over time the plan might become clearer, but for now it is a very murky crystal ball.
So, you know, here's hoping the team wins now. Cause none of us are getting any younger.
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I know this is dreaming but is there any way to land Kevin Durant…I might give up my 1st born, as long as he gets bought out and I could take him back of course (:!
I think DA agrees with you, lol
He’s been a longtime fan of Durant. But I can’t imagine OKC not extending him or matching any offers he gets should he go to restricted free agency when the time comes.
bummer though, Rondo + Durant + Perk would be a bright future.
Rondooooooo
I think you summed up...
why everyone was a little trigger-happy as the trade deadline was nearing this year. I think, deep down inside, we all realize that this might be our best shot at one last ring before painfully watching the core grow old without any cap flexibility to stop the bleeding.
DA made it clear what this team was built for with the ‘Sheed signing. It’s amazing how much longer that extra year looks now. The real question is: How would everyone feel if we won #18 this year? Would we be content with watching our core limp to the post season and put up a valiant effort before being ousted by a younger, more athletic team (see Hawks) ala the SAS? I think I would. #17 validated the KG trade for me, and #18 would validate standing pat this season and even the ’Sheed signing. You?
absolutely
I’d be happy with 5 years of mediocrity if we won the title this year – would totally be worth it
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Sailing
I’m going to be doing alot of sailing.
do you have a boat?
I love sailing but don’t get many chances to anymore
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
he's got a boat
but he doesn’t take it out……worried about holes, a tear in the sail, salt water damage, too windy, back-up engine problems, the list goes on and on
easy Brick……just kidding….already have a couple of posters on here that would like to drop me off your boat with some cement blocks on my feet.
Jeff…can you sail on Nike covered pontoons?
Is it Soup Yet?
I have a 30' Sailboat
She’s on the hard now in Jamestown, RI. I go to the islands (Block, Cuttyhunk, Menemsha)just about every weekend when the weather gets warm.
"Peek"
Future’s a mess. Impossible to figure out how it will all shake out… even for Danny, I imagine.
I hate spelling - not good for a blogger I guess
maybe I was saying that we might have already PEAKed
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Now you gotta bite your tongue
:)
‘Sides… I dunno… there’s a chance… not a huge one but a chance… that the Cs will shock the (sports) world again. They have it in them. Because man, there are times… short, yes, but they’re there… when their level of play reaches heights no one else can reach. Talking about the beautiful symmetry of their defense when it’s really cookin’… feeding into terrific offense. So long as they can, from time to time, achieve those heights… the dream abides.
hey, I still have hope
I just fear the worst, that’s all
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Do you think the organization as a whole
Feels a distinct pressure to win this season, given the uncertainty that looms?
When this “era” is over, I don’t think it’ll take long for us to get back on the horse. Certainly, not at the championship level, but not at a mediocre level either. Middle of the pack. We don’t have any long-term bad contracts with us at the moment, so that flexibility will be highly useful. It’s up to Ainge to use it wisely, and not panic and pick the first guy that is available to be signed just to compete. If there’s no one there, there’s no one there… we can certainly wait it out for the right guy.
And let’s start buying picks.
by BudweiserCeltic on Feb 22, 2010 9:11 PM EST reply actions
Every team goes through it's ups and downs
but there are certain teams (the C’s of the late ‘50s-’80s, the Lakers from the early ‘80s-now) where the rebuilding cycle hasn’t been too painful – they’ve been able to repopulate their team with stars pretty quickly. Any insights as to how this happened, if that’s even possible in this era of arcane salary rules, and what lessons those teams might have for the C’s?
by GreenInNYC on Feb 22, 2010 9:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
My guess
It has a lot to do w/ management, scouting, etc. But also the perception of the team counts. LA and the C’s, especially thru those winning years, have been conceived of as “winning organizations,” so winning players wanted to go there and winning coaching/management made winning decisions.
by RedsBean on Feb 22, 2010 11:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thank God!...
Thank God, we are in the Eastern Conference.
Depending on what Lebron, Dwyane, and Bosh decide to do this summer, things either remain the same, or if 2 of the three decide to pair up somewhere, then that’ll acutally make the eastern conference even more top heavy than it already is.
So we should remain relevant, for a few more years past the current one, and we could possibly still be a contender, by the simple fact that we are in the inferior conference. (unless the majority of the upcoming free agents all decide to sign with a team in the east.)
Whatever happens...
We must avoid those bleak years in the before time, before #17…
P.S. Most hilarious caption on the picture. My compliments to the chef.
by RedsBean on Feb 22, 2010 11:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The problem Ainge will face
is that his star player and face of the franchise (Rondo) is not really a carry the team kind of guy. I would have given up banner #17 to have Kevin Durant in a Celtics uniform. With good management – and OKC has that in Sam Presti – they will win more titles than the Cleveland LeBrons.
The Spurs have had a lengthy run with Duncan, Ginobli and Parker but they are near the end. If Ginobli is not re-upped and Duncan ages more quickly, they will be in the same boat as the C’s with Parker trying to carry them.
I’d clear the books of contracts, collect some draft choices and try to entice a top notch free agent to pair with Rondo in 2-3 years.
" I would have given up banner #17 to have Kevin Durant in a Celtics uniform."
Wow.
As much as I like Durant – that is something I could never, ever, ever say. We will forever remain pitted on opposite sides of that statement my friend.
Some old saying that starts with “A bird in the hand …” comes to mind.
Isn't this too early?
Jeff what will you write about in the off-season if you already use the possible topics now.
Besides what if Ray Allen reads this? And starts to worry about his future again? Do you take the full responsibility for another long slump? And the loss of #18?
funny
I’ll just regurgitate the same topics over the summer
and no, I’m not Bill Simmons, I can’t take credit for the misfortunes of the team
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
The Future?
Wow Jeff, very depressing. This season has been a struggle. I breezed through what you wrote, but I think one thing you did not mention is whether Doc will be here. I think there’s a possibility of Doc stepping down after this year. That would change the whole dynamic of the team. A new coach might actually try integrating younger players into the team. At this stage, I don’t see Doc doing that.
So if players are being moved and we get picks, I think Doc steps down.
a lot depends on how this season ends
if somehow we win a title then I think Danny will bring everyone back but try to add a few pieces like another shooter and an athletic 4. SCal is gone unless he re signs for cheap money as the 12th man. ditto for tony. In this scenario Ray becomes the 6th man and you find a younger shooting guard. The guy who would be perfect for us is Joe Johnson but there is no way we can afford him even if we re sign ray for cheap money because we will still be over the cap. Scenario 2 is we blow this up and try to get younger players and get under the cap. the major problem with going the free agent route is that we may not get any. let’s face it ,the draw for free agents to come to boston the past few years has been because they can play with kg and win a title. You take that away and where are you? WHo is going to want to come to boston with no kg or pierce here? the better alternative is to trade pierce,kg etc for younger talent . we had that chance at the trading deadline with ray but we didn’t do it. At some point we’re going to be rebuilding but I suspect that danny will try to squeeze one more year out of this group.
I Don't Expect Much of a Summer
They’ll try to resign some of the guys they have, plus add a draft pick. The big excitement will involve all of the blue chip free agents who can opt out and sign with the teams that have carefully cleared cap space for that purpose. But none of them are coming to Boston.
I expect LeBron to stay in Cleveland, but either Bosh or Stoudamire will go to Miami to play with Wade. I don’t know who will be willing to go to NY or NJ.
So Celtics fans will spend the summer with their faces pressed up against the candy store window while we argue furiously about whether we should give the MLE to Marquis Daniels or someone else.
Yea, this summer is gonna be a tease for C's fans
I agree LBJ will stay in the Cleve.
Dwade stays in Miami, and Amar’e goes to help him out.
I think Booz or Joe Johnson goes to Chicago. Or Johnson ends up with the Clippers (If so, that starting lineup is good on paper).
I think NY has a shot at a Rudy Gay type player, but misses the boat on the big big names.
I will be interested to see if any sign and trades with our team goes down.. Although I can’t imagine for who at this point.
Rondooooooo
Brickowski a sailor!
I would have guessed a stink pot captain like Quint from JAWS.
I’m a believer in the 3 year plan and this is year 3 and they are going for it all . Not trading Ray was a good move (since Iguodala and Ellis weren’t do-able) for this year. I think Nate Robinson will be a positve roster “shake up”. Eddie was terrific in many ways and limited in other ways. Hell-making quickness is a needed asset for us.
Next year, I bet we keep Ray at about $5 mil/year. We re-sign Daniels and Nate (because I think you said we could re cap. Therefore they are most valuable to us). I wouldn’t trade Perk as he and Rondo have a good comraderie and securing the 1 and 5 positions is still very hard to do. Witness the Sam Dalemberts out there. I like Glen Davis’ dimension – wide, athletic. He can learn how to not get his shot blocked and we need a dirty-nosed rebounder.
So, let next year unfold to find its level. Not championship level probably. Distractions will be healthy. Sailing is good. I’m going to Machu Pichu. Keep the “next big thing” in sight which is the new CBA and please, Danny, hold onto your draft picks.
Machu Picchu
Isn’t it a little too far above sea level to get there on a boat?























