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Around SBN: My First Fight: Diego Sanchez

"The reason is clear: it is now obvious that the Boston Celtics will not win the 2010 NBA title. And their chances of winning the 2011 NBA title, as presently constituted, are even more remote. In other words, the team is no longer a genuine contender." - Elrod

about 2 years ago Shamrock-blk-trans_tiny Jeff Clark 81 comments 0 recs  | 

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Call me crazy...

… but I’m still not willing to right the Celts off.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

by Roy_Hobbs on Feb 9, 2010 2:06 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I am!

Do you really see us winning a series against the Hawks, Cavs or Magic? How about two 7 game series against those teams back-to-back? Then beating the Lakers? It is a stretch, we could use one more real good player. I thought Rasheed would be that guy, but it turns out he wasn’t doggin’ it last year, he just got old.

by funkstarrdeluxe on Feb 9, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Forget 4 game series...

They have already proven that they cannot win a 1-game series {at home} against any of those teams!

by Title 18 on Feb 9, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

OK!

Your crazy (not personal, mind, just from a point of view of basketball).

by Tenacious D on Feb 9, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

seconded

"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V

by Jeff Clark on Feb 9, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions  

Thirded (or whatever is the word).

Actually, I like that everybody is writing us off already, we will thrill as underdogs.

Well, there are still causes for concerns and I have bigger doubts than before but I still think that this team can win it all this year, and that’s why we shouldn’t trade Ray.

by Drucci on Feb 9, 2010 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

why is this 'obvious'?

the post season is 2 months away –
- players can get healthier and stronger (like KG and Pierce)
- – if they don’t make a move – they can still win it all with health and some luck, no problem.

Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk

by mcpu40 on Feb 9, 2010 2:21 PM EST reply actions  

I'm not so sure

I watch Sheed on defensive rotations and see a man who knows what to do, but can no longer do it. And I’m not talking about how quick and accurate his hands are, it’s his feet, the brain says move and three seconds later the legs/feet say okay.

by Little D on Feb 9, 2010 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

would love this bet

anything could happen to be sure. but odds wise, even a healthy Boston will struggle with both orlando and the cavs as constructed.
would love that bet.
the part i find baffling is the belief on this blog that there is this imaginary plateau of health that has yet to reached (that and the right combinations of referees…geeesh, enough already)…the reality is that this could VERY easily be the KG…right here, right now. the sad thing about aging (trust me, I know) is that you keep aging.
a trade must happen for this team to make a dent.

by lakersbluedevil on Feb 9, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Cavs are on a mission...

After Cleveland crushes the East, they will dismantle LA just as easily as they did during the regular season.

by Title 18 on Feb 9, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, the Celtics are Aging, but..

I’m just not sure they need to make a trade..but if they do then I trust Danny.

This team has beaten ORL without Pierce..they are right there with LA. And they’ve beaten CLE.

Yes their play since Christmas has been baffling to me, and I’ve been a fan since 1981. But I just believe they’ll be right there at the end.

Not In My House!

by Celtics18and19 on Feb 9, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

A monumental IF!

If everybody on the roster is fit and really ready to play(unlike KG is right now or Pierce or Daniels) than we would have somewhat of a chance. And of course Doc is able to light a fire under their asses and they start playing with some passion unlike they are doing right now! A good GM won’t gamble on this looking back at the last year and a half. I think the window of opportunity for this group of players has been closed. When KG and Ray came on board 2,5 years ago everybody was talking about a 3 year window of opportunity and the way things look now that was a little bit too optimistic. I don’t believe we are legit contenders anymore and there is litlle else to do for DA than to start rebuilding and make the best deal possible for RA.

by KevinConnor on Feb 10, 2010 3:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the poor play is the very reason we should trade Ray. Obviously this team can play bc we were 23-5 but their have been issues – no killer instinct, age, injuries. The injuries can be fixed if everyone stays healthy but I think we make the trade for a young guy like Ellis or the kid from Sacramento for the youth, flexibility, and athleticism.

by mthwsms on Feb 9, 2010 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

Boy, I wanna be there...

and I’ll never give up on the C’s, but these last couple of months have been exhausting. I certainly wouldn’t want to be sitting in Mr. Ainge’s shoes right now — my constitution just couldn’t handle it!

by Hal Jordan on Feb 9, 2010 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

Here here...

I think the primary issue with this team has to do with motivation and “pacing”…afterall, this is the team that started 23-5, they didn’t “get old” during the season, that’s pure BS…this team is struggling in part because its best player – KG – has not been able to get into a groove, this same player was peaking right before the hyperextension, so i don’t believe for a second he doesn’t have top game left in him – he showed it for about 12-15 games before going out…

I do believe this team needs to parlay Ray’s deal into a younger replacement, though i’d only do a trade if we could re-acquire him after buyout – Kevin Martin is too injury prone and Ray is just still too good to now retain in a backup/support capacity.

But the team does need an infusion of hungry players – i have ZERO doubt there is another gear this team will play at come playoff time – this isn’t age as much as it is indifference…but i don’t believe a team can “turn it on” and not be ruster – you have to play a certain amount of top-end basketball to be able to “turn it on” and right now the team is going through the motions far, far too much.

KG getting back into rhythm will help, as he isn’t being as vocal a leader while his game is off…having Marquis will also help as he hasn’t won a title and is still in his prime…TA/Walker/Davis/Williams would also help this cause if Doc would have the balls to BENCH some of the complacent stars more often – something Greg Popovich has been GREAT at doing to keep the stars heads deflated and remind them that their resumes don’t mean squat.

by BillfromBoston on Feb 9, 2010 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

very right BillfromBoston

I don’t think a team can get old in 2 months. I think the progressive pacing of the season gets WAY out of kilter with injuries to more than 1 key player at a time. No NBA contender besides the Blazers have had injuries to BOTH their defensive and offensive leaders AT THE SAME TIME. Not the lakers, not the Cavs, not the Nuggets, not the Magic. When those two things go, team play goes out of whack, players try to do too much, others don’t do enough, and chemistry issues start to bubble up.

KG was eastern player of the month in december, right? Lebron happened to win the award this past month too. The fortunes of their two respective teams peaked when these two were at their best.

KG very much has it in him to play well. He doesn’t even have to be able to jump or move quite like he used to. He just needs to get back to december shape….which by the way took more than a month to get too. There were some shakey moments for him there.

In addition, remember Paul too. He was our team MVP for a while late in the Fall. He single-handedly saved the team in that near-disastrous Knicks game…and has done so at other times. Ever since his kneee surgery, he has been inconsistent. He will take a month to get back to where he was then.

Last, but certainly not least…in fact I think this may be the most important player for the Celtics, in terms of getting consistent offense is…Ray Ray.

Where has he gone? I don’t know. But I’m willing to assume (or at least hope) that his shot is off because he’s played sooooo many minutes. He’s been buried with offensive responsibilities, and I just don’t think that 35+ min per night is good for a shooting guard his age. He also has to guard some of the elite 2’s in the league on a consistent basis. Tough work.

This is really difficult timing…evaluating Ray. I very much think he will turn it on after the All Star Break. But of course, if a GODFATHER deal comes along, I wouldn’t be saying no. I think I’d qualify an Iguodala deal as being of that sort. Perhaps Kevin Martin too, but I don’t know much about him.

Difficult juncture, to say the least.

Rajon Rondo

by ducksawce on Feb 9, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the primary issue with this team has to do with motivation and "pacing"…

and that is what doc said. these guys think they could win and don’t need to apply themselves now.

If they could put it together in march and april then I think they will be fine

by aboubata on Feb 9, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Motivation?

Applies to Wallace. The rest? KG and Paul are willin’ but aren’t able. Dunno what’s up with Ray, but he’s certainly putting in the miles, since Doc wont play Gidds or Walk.

by Tenacious D on Feb 9, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

love some KG but this age plus injury plus another injury and we just don’t know what kind of shape he might get back in. They were old before the season started off, got off to an amazing start but the season is 82 games. The age is gonna show later not early in the season bc the legs are no longer fresh and injuries.

by mthwsms on Feb 9, 2010 2:31 PM EST reply actions  

Unsupported suppositions

This guy makes several statements of fact that are actually unsupported guesses.

= How does he know KG will never be great again? Nobody knows that. He’s working on it. Anything can happen.
= The fate of the whole organization depends only on KG? Huh? In fact, it depends on many people and many factors. As constituted right now, they could win it all, with good health.
= He’s jumping the gun. The critical juncture will likely be spread out over the next two years, not two weeks.

by DRJ1 on Feb 9, 2010 2:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I actually totally agree with him about the fate of the organization depending on KG. KG is the Celtics like Duncan is the Spurs. If KG is a 14, 7 and 1 guy from here on out, the Celtics aren’t winning anything.

by LarBrd33 on Feb 9, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Rondo doesn't believe in easy buckets...

by ManUp on Feb 9, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

KG = emotional/defensive leader

He needs to bring intensity and focus to the team – not high scoring/rebounding numbers. I do think we ARE dependent on KG, just not in the ways you mention. Celtics can win with 14 and 7 from KG if he’s mobile enough to play great defense and focus the team together.

by milt palacio's shot on Feb 9, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

KG is emotional/defensive leader, not scoring leader

KG needs to bring focus to the defense and intensity to the team. He can do this almost entirely on the defensive end, and whatever scoring he does is gravy. The C’s can certainly win with 14 and 7 from KG.

I do agree that this team needs KG to be healthy enough to play the kind of defense we expect from him. In this way, KG is crucial to the team, but not in the ways you mention…

by milt palacio's shot on Feb 9, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Nailed it

For what ever reason, the knee itself or the rehab, KG is not the KG of old. That limits what he can do.That means for much of the game, your front line is an under motivated Rasheed Wallace, a delusions of grandeur Ken-Perk, under undersized not quite ready for prime time Uno Uno (the Big Over-Easy) and Sheldon. Ouch. Just… ouch.

Add the not so quick on the wing duo of Paul and Ray, and you got problems. Blow double-digit leads 9 times? Problems. EE and Simons nailed it.

by Tenacious D on Feb 9, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

KG is mending

There’s every reason to hope that he will continue to improve. With KG at ANY reasonably decent level of health, this team, as currently constituted, has the talent to go all the way. A few tweaks is all it needs.

Where does Taco-man get the future vision to know that KG’s never going to make it? And why does he say that KG must be his former superstar self for this team to have a chance. That’s not true at all. We need KG, of course… at some reasonable level of health. We don’t NEED him to be the superstar of old.

Finally… the critical juncture is not the next 1-2 weeks. It’s going to come over the next 2 years, as the Big 3 age and decisions are made. All this doom and gloom is unwarranted… for now, anyway. Too many margaritas….?

by DRJ1 on Feb 9, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Fourthed (After Drucci's Post).

And “Elrod Enchilada” is….who??

Seriously…who is he? I have never seen or heard from him before.

Why are some folks writing off the Boston Celtics? Yes they have been terribly inconsistent..injured, bored, not playing up to potential…but I cannot write them off. Not yet.

Not until someone puts them out in the Playoffs.

GreenFaith1819 (From CelticsBlog Forums) says.

Not In My House!

by Celtics18and19 on Feb 9, 2010 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

yea, Elrod is the guy that promoted the idea that it takes an mvp level player and at least one consistent all star to win a title, that when you look at the list of champions that is pretty much all you see, with the pistons being the exception (both incarnations, depending on how you look at isiah), but every where else the list runs something like shaq/kobe, mj/pippin, magic/worthy, bird/mchale, russel/cousy or heinsohn or hondo(? was russel still around?), olajuwon/(doesn’t count ’cause mj was on his gambling suspension), dr j./cheeks, etc., etc,.
anybody have a link to that?

by chicagogreen on Feb 9, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Elrod

His name is Robert McChesney, I believe, and he has written many articles on the C’s. Well written articles by the way. Big C’s fan.

by celty86 on Feb 9, 2010 2:51 PM EST reply actions  

And someone who, frankly, tends to drift pretty far afield in his conclusions. Disappointing to see Real GM infiltrate this board.

I do agree, though, that this team needs a transitional deal, a bridge to the future. No need to give Allen away, but if something can be worked out for a Martin or an Iggy, we need to take a serious look at it.

In the meantime, I love the proposed Davis deal. Better jump on that before Larry sobers up.

by CoachBo on Feb 9, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, No disrespect to the man, but..

Even with all the baffling things I’ve seen the Celtics do since Christmas, I just can’t write them off. I’ve seen too many Improbable wins..comebacks…game-changing plays..over the years to count out our Celtics.

These are the Celtics I remember. These are the Celtics that can still happen. They are 32 and 17 and still in the thick of things in the East..and neary beat LA.

I will say that in my nearly 30 years of being a Celtics Fan, this has got to be the most Baffling season I’ve seen…easily.

I can’t really blame some for writing them off…based off of how they’ve performed the last few weeks. But I’m just hanging on until June 2010 myself.

Not In My House!

by Celtics18and19 on Feb 9, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Proof

The last two weeks have proved the Cs aren’t contenders. Right now. Those same games that have proved that have also proved that the Cs are better than every other team in the league. When they want to be.

Changing the lineup in a way that subtracts Ray Allen will not help that. Guys proving they want to win will.

by Ersatz on Feb 9, 2010 2:53 PM EST reply actions  

Reaonable point

..because Ray has been consistent, other than his his shot, whereas PP and Kg have been hobbled.
But trades arent a matter of subtraction. If DA make make them younger and better, its worth a shot.

by Tenacious D on Feb 9, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Confucius say: If Ray Allen traded, will he become Frank Feldman?

 One day taxi driver picks up passenger and says “Perfect timing, you’re just like Frank.” Passenger: “Who?” Cabbie: “Frank Feldman, he’s a guy who did everything right all the time. He was a terrific athlete, could have won the Grand Slam in tennis, Masters tournament in golf. Could sing like an angel and dance like a Broadway star.” Passenger: “He sounds like a special guy.” Cabbie: “There’s more…He had a memory like a computer, remembered everyone’s birthday, knew all about wine, which foods to order and which fork to eat with. He could fix anything, not like me, don’t know which end of a screwdriver to use.” Passenger: “Wow, what a guy!” Cabbie: “He knew the quickest way in traffic, not like me. Frank never made a mistake. He knew how to treat a woman, would never answer her back, even if she was wrong. Perfectly coiffed, well mannered, no one could ever measure up to Frank Feldman. Not like me, a total failure.” Passenger: “An amazing fellow. How did you meet him?” Cabbie: “Well, I actually never met Frank.” Passenger; “What?” Cabbie: “Yeah, he died. I’m married to his widow.”

by charlie chan on Feb 9, 2010 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

Personally, I think his article is right on the money.

Elrod has been writing for a long time and has some very good insight into the Boston Celtics franchise. I don’t have to agree with every word he writes, but his concept is significant.

It’s not about writing the C’s off, although I don’t like at all what I’ve been seeing approximately since Christmas. It’s about the right business decisions as head of the franchise. I love Ray Allen even though I cringe multiple times in every game when Ray wants to handle the ball. If there is one phrase that I can be heard saying in every game it’s probably " Oh no. Pass the ball Ray. Somebody get it out of his hands!"

But can we afford to not take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself right now? I am not suggesting Ray for player X, Y or Z. That’s probably being worked on behind closed doors right now if I were to make a guess. But the risk is to lose the value of his expiring deal and get nothing in return. Personally, I believe Danny is too smart to let that happen assuming he has a willing co-conspirator……….and McHale is no longer an option or we might have gotten Big Al back again!

I tend to agree that with the right deal, we would have no less of a chance at a title than we have as currently constituted. And it would leave us better set up for next year and beyond.

While I’m not a bridge jumper by any means, I can find a lot of truth in what the big enchilada writes.

If you look at the situation logically and not emotionally, it will help generate the right decision. It’s not about liking, or disliking Ray, Danny, Wyc or anybody else.

by DrD on Feb 9, 2010 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

I think Elrod nails it too

He’s got a tough choice, and only 9 days in which to make it. You either think you’ve got a legit contender or you don’t. If you don’t think you do, then start building towards the next true contender. He’s got assets to use that go by the boards in 9 days. Would be nice to be able to see if improved health, effort, motivation, etc would be enough to get this team over the hump and be enough to win it all. Unfortunately, the wait and see option and trade deadline are mutually exclusive. Danny’s got to make the call soon. To my eyes, it seems clear this isn’t a championship team, notwithstanding the various injuries and issues.

In any event, I think Danny can make trades that will not lessen the team’s chances (such as they are) this year, and be of definite help in the years to come. Yes, I’m talking about trading Ray.

by Mencius on Feb 9, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

You're exactly right

Beyond trading Ray’s huge expiring contract, we have absolutely zero means of improving the team. Anyone who thinks the key ingredients we have right now are going to somehow get BETTER by next year is completely fooling themselves.

Ray must be traded NOW. It is our only chance.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 9, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Check out Celtics 68-69 season—Bill Russell’s last championship—old, tired— 4th seed and won it all!

by feckless on Feb 9, 2010 3:17 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, but 34 year old Russell was averaging like 20 rebounds and god knows how many blocks. 33 year old KG is a 14 and 7 guy.

by LarBrd33 on Feb 9, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Bill Russell

In 1968-69, Russell averaged 9.9 ppg, 19.3 rpg and 4.9 apg. He played in 77 of the 82 games, and played over 42 minutes in the games he played.

And he also coached the team.

If Garnett were doing that, we’d still be a contender.

by Brickowski on Feb 9, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

No such things as completely healthy

KG is going to retire this summer. He’s done. He can’t even make it 3 weeks at a time without needing to be “strategically shut down”. No way he can go another full season.

Mark my words, fellow C’s fans – Kevin Garnett’s career is over.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 9, 2010 3:44 PM EST reply actions  

yeah I think he’s close. Doesn’t mean you won’t be able to use him at all though.. gotta think of a way to maximize his value

Bleed Green. What does it mean?

by CelticsHooRah on Feb 9, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Several people on this site eat dinner with "The Enchilada of Doom" quite regularly

Only hope and faith can put out the fire of the “Enchilada of Doom

and by the way….Elrod….. can you pass the chips and salsa….then please then sit down and shut your big fat guacamole hole….I am still trying to watch the games……

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Feb 9, 2010 3:57 PM EST reply actions  

.....

ok i know the last few weeks/last month has been bad. but really. how can everyone say we arent contenders>? after all….
1. we had the lakers beat, and only lost by a lucky/clutch kobe shot.
2. we’ve had the hawks almost everytime, just failed to finish.
3. similar to atlanta, we were beating them. actually we were DOMINATING them.

of course i know all these ended up in losses. but it was mental collapses combined with a bunch of other things. it wasnt that we werent good enough. if we werent good enough we wouldnt have had all those double digit leads. no doubt there is a problem. but we are still contenders. and we in it to win it.

UBUNTU! (keeep raaaaay!)

by WikedCeltsFan7 on Feb 9, 2010 4:02 PM EST reply actions  

I don't care

if we win the 2010 NBA title as a “genuine condender” or as " the most common underdog". We still can do it.

by Sebal on Feb 9, 2010 4:03 PM EST reply actions  

I really don’t understand all this pervasive denial that’s going on. It reminds me of when I would read the Detroit Bad Boys blog back in ’08. Those fans were also convinced their extremely aged team could somehow defy 50 years of league history and win another trophy. Yeah. . . right.

Look I love this team as much as any human alive. In my mind the Red Sox and Patriots don’t even exist. The C’s are all I’ve got. But that doesn’t mean I am oblivious to their blatantly obvious deficiencies. Are we really being bad fans by simply acknowledging what the rest of the world can see plain as day? I say no.

I think we really should be focused on the future. Because KG is done (imminent retirement). We have no decent draft picks to look forward to. How can we prevent the doldrums that happened after the Original Big 3 from happening again? This is the question Celtic Nation should be most worried about.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 9, 2010 4:11 PM EST reply actions  

KG is not done. neither is Ray, neither is Paul.

for the future we have Rondo and Perk to work around.

but its about the here and now. And I dont see why we cant or wont win it this year.

by WikedCeltsFan7 on Feb 9, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

“How can we prevent the doldrums that happened after the Original Big 3 from happening again? This is the question Celtic Nation should be most worried about.”

don’t hire chris wallace, how about?

by milt palacio's shot on Feb 9, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Excellent Point!!

But who was the GM at the tail end of Bird & McHale’s career? I don’t think it was Wallace.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 9, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Elrod Enchilada

If I remember correctly, Elrod is a blogger who use to be one one of the blogs I frequented in the past…maybe geocities. I googled him and his bio says he is a professor from Illinois (no where or what). His interests are “snoring and humming” and he break dances and plays air guitar. He always seemed like a good poster to me, but I think I will stick to my own opinion, and that is that this team is not finished yet!

by thirstyboots18 on Feb 9, 2010 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

Being a blooger

..doesnt automatically mean ’without portfolio. Our friends Jeff and Po are likewise bloggers. EE has made a reasoned assessment on the state of the team, one seconded by paid sports pros (the hated Hollinger to name one). Will the problems they point out -both physical (KG,PP) and mental Wallace (leave it to you to peg where Ray is at) - go away by the playoffs? Tough call, and its the Mr Ainge has to make, but certainly watching them blow double digit leads and so forth is not encouraging.

by Tenacious D on Feb 9, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I was not insulting Elrod

I also frequent a blog! LOL. I don’t even know that he wrote his biography. I am saying if he is from Illinois, no matter how savvy he his, he is probably not an insider in the Celtics organization. He is just a blogger with opinions, like all of us. And you know I have all respect for Po and Jeff! I just don’t happen to share Elrod’s opinion on this.

by thirstyboots18 on Feb 9, 2010 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

KG is retirement?

What are you talking about? Is he the only player you’ve ever paid attention to with an injury? He had knee surgery (not uncommon) bounced back to a high level and then had someone fall on his leg( not the same injury) Now he’s played, what – 7 games since coming back and he’s done?

Its not wrong to question whether this team has what it takes to win – but to ask for logic and then make statements like “KG is done” are counter productive.

I think KG is good for quite a few more seasons and I doubt he misses any more time this year…that opinion is just as valid based on the sample of data we’re going off of…if not moreso

by BillfromBoston on Feb 9, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions  

We'll just have to agree to Disagree

I don’t think KG was playing great at all. He was hitting his jump shot and scoring a little better. But he still couldn’t finish alley oops, block shots, or rebound at a high rate.

The guy is noticeably limping. He’s in pain. No way he’s going to subject himself to that for another entire season. I think people are too quick to say the knee is simply going to heal and he’s going to better over time. I just can’t come to that conclusion when I look at the bigger picture of this thing. The guy was out for 10 months. TEN MONTHS. Then he comes back at about 75% of his previous self and promptly gets hurt again on the same knee.

Simple bone spurs do not cause someone to miss that much time and subsequently reduce a player’s mobility by that high of a degree. This injury was always more significant than the organization has admitted. One day we will know the full extent of it. But for now we can only observe his play and speculate. Based on that, I think the guy is done. Hey, I’d love to be wrong. I WOULD LOVE TO BE WRONG. Sadly, I don’t think I am.

by MetroGlobe on Feb 9, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Its foolish not to trade ray,everybody loves the guy for sure,but buisness wise and basketball wise there’s absolutely no reason not to.Number one regardless of him being healthy which is even more reason to trade him among numerous others, he’s crazily inconsistent ,he’s one dimensional at this point in his career,and he’s shot us out of more games than shot us in or won.Even since year one of him in uniform he would disapear for weeks at a time and entire playoff series . We can’t keep him and sign anyone next year above the MLE,we will lose him regardless unless he’ll accept a drastic change in pay.He is our only major expiring contract our literal golden ticket.I am not saying he is our problem but sure as hell am saying he’s not our solution.We need youth athletism , length, he can offer us none of that.So at this point we can be nostalgic and honorable keep this group together to lose in the first or second round or we can trade get younger and hopefully better in return have a chance this year and have a solid group to build upon in the years to come ,the alternative will be next year lose ray ,paul and KG get another year older and fall into obscurity.I don’t even have faith in the fact that KG will be able to play the rest of this year without goin down

by reggie_35 on Feb 9, 2010 5:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

great job as always elrod, and even though I agree I think for the sake of loyalty, for the wholeness of taking the good with the bad, I would be ok with letting this team try again, I think they earned it. I’ll root for them, I’ll swear every time ray allen over dribbles and turns the ball over, and I will feel sick when they lose, but even having watched the 80’s C’s as a teenager, this is my favorite team of all time and if they want another go, have at it.

by chicagogreen on Feb 9, 2010 5:40 PM EST reply actions  

nto for lack of love here

But, say it again. KG is well shy of 100%, leaving too many minutes to the disinterested Mr Wallace, the rim-challenged Mr Davis, and the “Why dont they rate we with Dwight” Mr Perkins. (Sheldon, Doc?). Slow foot wings. (Ray, Paul). No back up point. As it stands, they aren stuck in 2nd (as in a 2nd round exit).

by Tenacious D on Feb 9, 2010 6:45 PM EST reply actions  

If this were the KG of his prime –?????

Elrod posits:

If this were the KG of his prime – the 22ppg, 13 rpg, 6apg, 2bpg 1st team all-NBA stud for much of the past decade – the Cs would be very much in contention.

That would be great. But its not particularly relevant. The relevant KG to compare is the one from 2007-2008. If KG can be close to THAT version (which, every 36 minutes averaged 20.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg & 3.8 apg) then they should be ‘very much in contention’.

His numbers indeed are down from 07-08 (17, 8.6 & 3.3, respectively, per 36). But not by so much as if you compare him to his prime.

More telling is that the team’s performance with him on the floor is still dramatically improved over not having him on the floor. Especially on defense. Having KG in the lineup represents around a 5-6 pt swing in the point differential!

If KG is at all reasonably healthy, and the rest of the top-9 rotation stays stable, this team definitely should should be able to turn this around.

by mmmmm on Feb 9, 2010 7:12 PM EST reply actions  

Numbers don't tell the story
That would be great. But its not particularly relevant. The relevant KG to compare is the one from 2007-2008. If KG can be close to THAT version (which, every 36 minutes averaged 20.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg & 3.8 apg) then they should be ‘very much in contention’.

His numbers indeed are down from 07-08 (17, 8.6 & 3.3, respectively, per 36). But not by so much as if you compare him to his prime.

His offensive numbers have not fallen off that dramatically. He can still shoot a good jumper, and do it well. Other than alley oops, he’s near allergic to the paint this year. The big fall off in production, which the numbers don’t indicate, is that he’s nowhere close to being the DPOY type of presence he was two years ago. Not close. Cannot move his feet like he used to.

by Mencius on Feb 9, 2010 7:59 PM EST reply actions  

welllll ....

I know you just said “Numbers don’t tell the story” – but you can’t just dismiss his offensive numbers and then posit his defensive shortcomings. You have to at least let us put his DEFENSIVE numbers out there to see if your subjective impressions about his defense falling off hold up to objective numbers.

And you’ll be happy to know that your impressions above are off.

When KG is in with our starting lineup, they have a defensive efficiency of 0.97! This is a huge reason why this team is the #1 defense in the NBA.

KG has a personal defensive efficiency this year of 0.99. When KG is on the floor, the other team averages less than a point per possession.

In fact – KG IS THE ONLY ONE IN THE NBA RIGHT NOW with a personal defensive efficiency below 1.00!!!!!!! (for players who have played at least 30% of their team’s minutes).

This argues that maybe, when he is on the floor, KG is STILL at least one of the premier defensive players in the league? Just maybe?

Maybe the reports of KG’s decline are a bit premature.

by mmmmm on Feb 9, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I still say numbers don't tell the story

Regardless of what metrics you’re looking at, my eyes tell me that he is nowhere near as dominant defensively as he was two years ago.

Admittedly my impressions are subjective. It’s what I see when I watch the game. Are you arguing that he is close to as effective defensively as he was two years ago? I submit that he doesn’t move his feet anywhere near as well as he did then, nor does he jump as well, so he does not keep his man in front of him as well as he did then, nor does he alter shots like he did then. The man is dragging his leg up and down the court.

But you’re right about it being subjective. I just find it hard to believe that you’d make the argument that he’s anywhere near as effective defensively as he was two years ago based on what I see. Just goes to show you, two people can watch the same events and walk away with entirely different impressions.

by Mencius on Feb 10, 2010 12:37 AM EST up reply actions  

By the way...

That’s not a slam on his defense now. It is just that relative to two years ago, it has slipped markedly. Two years ago, Rashard Lewis doesn’t blow by Garnett like he’s stuck in mud.

by Mencius on Feb 10, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions  

as effective as two years ago?

No. No where did I say that.

I simply point out that the numbers indicate that he is still one of the premier defensive players in the league.

Eyes are tricky things. We often ‘see’ what we expect to see.

The numbers don’t tell the whole story by any means. What they do though, is provide a hint that maybe we need to look again with our eyes. That we should challenge ourselves to adjust our perspective until we can understand what the numbers are telling us.

Basketball is full of intangibles. There are so many ways for a player to contribute that simply are not measured by individual points, rebounds, blocks, etc. And many of the most important team contributions such as positioning, screens, switching on defense, etc. etc. are easy for our eye to miss unless we force ourselves to look carefully for them.

The efficiency numbers, though they do not provide a break down of what goes on in the details, nevertheless are relentless in rolling up and reflecting the aggregation of all those details. And they do not lie.

KG is still an extremely valuable player in this league. Especially on defense.

by mmmmm on Feb 10, 2010 1:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess I'll agree to disagree

I recall reading about when an agent would come to Red with stats to try to show how the player deserved this or that type of contract, and Red would have none of it. He watched the game and knew the player’s value.

I’m certainly no Red (who is?), but I watch the game, and have for many, many years, just like, probably, you have too, and what I see is a player whose game has dropped off considerably, regardless of what your metrics are telling you. Sure, he’s still a valuable and good player, but not nearly what he was two years ago, not even defensively. He simply doesn’t move his feet like he used to, nor can he jump like he used to. As I said before, Garnett of two years ago would not have been blown by like he was standing in mud by the likes of Rashard Lewis. Our discussion is played out. We’ve both expressed our opinion, and neither will budge from what we believe to be correct. I wonder what others think as regards Garnett and where his game is now vis-a-vis two years ago. In my estimation he’s about 65, at most 70 percent as effective as he was two years ago.

by Mencius on Feb 10, 2010 2:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm okay with that.

Just keep in mind that you are not disagreeing with me. You are disagreeing with the scoreboard.

I personally AGREE that he is not physically as able as he was two years ago. My eyes tell me the same thing that yours are telling you.

But the numbers on the scoreboard say he is still extremely EFFECTIVE – especially on defense. Maybe he’s just a smarter player? Or works better with his team after being in this defense for 2+ years now?

I also would suggest that it is a bit of an exageration to say that “Garnett of two years ago would not have been blown by like he was standing in mud by … Rashard Lewis.” Even in his prime he never shutdown EVERY good play by good players. Just most of them.

Besides that play was probably pretty heavily facilitated by Howard, who had Sheed too far to the opposite side of the paint, trying to prevent a pass TO Howard. If Sheed is able to rotate over to provide the weak side help defense just a fraction of second earlier, then Lewis can’t make that play and time expires and everybody is lauding KG for playing such great man defense to force Lewis to take a long route to the post. Basketball is a team game.

by mmmmm on Feb 10, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

And he's just getting warmed up

…physically. His IQ and communication skills are all there, and that’s a big part of his input on defense. When he gets back to whatever will be his new 100%, we can expect even better results.

These reports of KG’s demise are way premature. He MIGHT go down tomorrow… but there’s no evidence for that. What we’re seeing is steady improvement. Not in a straight line, but certainly an upward slope.

Not that that means we win it all. There are a lot of other moving parts that have to work just right for that to happen.

by DRJ1 on Feb 10, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions  

never say never

if playoff started today… yes C’s will not survived past the 1st round. But who’s to say stranger things have happened in sports.
if Lebron & howard stay healthy they are the stars Maturing ready to take the spot light away from kobe & lakers. C’s won in 2008 as a team. the big three & support. Now 2 years later its clear this team is not about team.
Big baby has an agenda not Celtic for life. Powe gone Posey go I could go on. this is no longer the big 3 & support. Rondo is the new guy.
Point is this is no longer a cohesive team as 08 champs. If season plays out the C’s have no chance but i never say never until they loose.

by tommyfan on Feb 9, 2010 8:20 PM EST reply actions  

GREAT GREAT ARTICLE - agree 90%. My only quibble has to do with the future. Keep KG and Pierce this season and try to win #18 with them plus young player(s) added.

But next summer, if KG hasn’t looked much more like the KG of old, I trade Pierce and do my best to trade KG also.

Pierce should be tradeable since he will be an expiring next summer.

We might be stuck with KG’s contract for another season…. but getting value for Ray now and Pierce next summer will help make our rebuilding much less painful than we experienced in horrible 20 year period.

by celticspride4ever on Feb 9, 2010 11:53 PM EST reply actions  

holding on to the big 3

…is worth it, we can rebuild later(it took 20 yrs before because len bias and reggie died)

by Perkinsschool4blind1 on Feb 10, 2010 3:05 AM EST reply actions  

People have a hard time remembering those facts.

It wasn’t the holding on to Larry, McHale & Parrish that killed the team. It was the sudden tragic subtraction of two hugely valuable young players from that period – with nothing to insert in their places.

by mmmmm on Feb 10, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

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