The Truth About "Good Tony"
There has been a ton of talk this season about how Tony Allen has looked better this season, that he's had a career makeover, etc., etc. The question is, is their any validity to that?
Below are Tony's career averages, and his "Per 36" career stats:

(Click here for larger image.)
Certainly, it's fair to say that in a lot of areas (FG%, rebounding, turnovers) there has been some minimal improvement. However, statistically, Tony basically seems to have been the same player this year that he's always been, at least within normal fluctuations.
Tony still possesses a lot of the flaws he's always had. He was a terrible jump shooter (.214 eFG% on jump shots), and he still fouled and turned the ball over more than most players. He still had an assist-to-turnover ratio of approximately 1:1, and the team was actually outscored while Tony was on the court this year.
Why, then, do so many Celtics fans think Tony has turned a corner? Are the Tony fans that have been telling us that he's always been as good as he has shown this year been correct?
I think there are a number of reasons for the average fan's belief that Tony has been better this year, even as he's statistically within career norms:
1) Tony really has played better this year.
This is probably the most obvious one, but Tony has decreased some of his worst traits. Only 33% of his shots this year have been jumpers (as opposed to 39% last year, and 50% and 45% the two previous years). Despite that, Tony has decreased his turnovers, and has improved his play elsewhere, particularly in rebounding. There hasn't necessarily been huge improvement, but there have been some noticeable moves in the right direction.
2) Tony has cut down on his most frustrating plays.
As noted above, Tony is driving to the basket more this year. Despite that, Tony only has nine offensive fouls this entire season, as compared to 19 last season in fewer games. That shows some real growth on his part.
Similarly, Tony hasn't been turning the ball over much in crunch time. This season, Tony only has two turnovers in "clutch" situations, defined as situations in the last five minutes of a game (or overtime) where the game is within five points. At the same time, Tony scored more in crunch situations than in the past.
Over the years, it's the "throw your hands in the air and groan" plays of Tony that have stuck fans, whether it be a stupid offensive foul, or dribbling the ball off of his foot, or biting on a stupid up-fake in crunch time. This year, there are far fewer of those defining plays.
3) Fans have plenty of scapegoats this season.
Listen, every fan base usually has players it tends to bash, and Tony was an easy target with the Celts. In the past, he turned the ball over way too much, he fouled a lot, he made bonehead plays, and off the court, he brought a lot of negative attention to himself.
This season, there are other players who have played worse, or who have at least played farther beneath expectations. First and foremost on that list, of course, is Rasheed, who almost instantly earned the fans' scorn with his lazy play and mediocre performance. Additionally, the entire team has been a disappointment, leaving plenty of avenues for criticism. Because of that, Tony's role as a scapegoat has been largely reduced. Whatever the problems with the team were this season, they weren't related to Tony Allen.
4) Fans respect the way Tony has played.
Related to the above, Tony has endeared many fans with his style of play. When this team has looked old and lethargic, Tony has looked athletic and energetic. He has almost uniformly hustled when he's been in the game, and on nights when the team has chucked lazy shots from the perimeter, he hasn't been scared to drive the ball.
In conclusion, then, it seems that the idea of "Good Tony" is partially grounded in reality, despite what the stats might suggest. However, a large part of the "Good Tony" phenomenon is also fueled by fan perception, both positive and negative.
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Spot on Roy
It’s funny, I definitely found myself in the group feeling like Tony was playing far superior to any other year in the past. This is the first time I’ve actually looked at the numbers. I guess it’s all just our perceptions, but in the past it seemed like Tony could do nothing right…now it’s the opposite.
www.greentownsfinest.com
I just think he has been the most consistent/best bench player this year
Buying into his role of perimeter defender
not seaching for his offense, but letting it come to him, still effective at slashing, and jump shooting less
turning the ball over less, making less boneheaded plays both on and off the court, overcoming the local stigma/his history and the shoves to the end of the bench waiting for his turn and showing up to play when he gets it
by Warrior Spirit on Apr 21, 2010 4:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I love category #3: "alternative scapegoats."
Every team needs one.
When we got Luke Jackson, who at the time was the Cavs’ franchise-caliber scapegoat, I thought it was in order to free Scals from his role as our scapegoat, or at least as the attending fans’ scapegoat.
It is smart to substitute a patently useless scapegoat in place of one who has something to contribute.
The NBA: where scapegoats happen.
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
As long as he resist taking jump shots...TA contributes to the cause!
He`s aggressive, he`s always looking to run, and he`s very “destructive” weapon defensively.
2) Tony has cut down on his most frustrating plays.
This, to me, is the critical point –
…his tenacity has always been there, athleticism, motivation, scoring capability, defensive prowess, it’s the silly mistakes that have cost the team wins and himself significant time injured
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk
Maybe so...
… although people have been talking about how well Tony has been playing for much of the season.
In terms of stats, his last month isn’t too much different than the rest of the season:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allento01/splits/2010/
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Hobbs....excellent
I vote mostly #4…..energy, slashing, and his focus D…….
enjoyed the read
Is it Soup Yet?
Thanks, Po...
It’s appreciated.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
And stats don't show defensive hustle and turnovers caused
Wade was neutralized in Game 1 – how many defenders can say that?
by nba is the worst on Apr 22, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I did and do not subscribe to this good/bad label. Tony came back from his injury in December and he’s more or less been injury free. I think that’s a big part of his success this season. To me injuries have been his biggest problem. People in the past have said he’s a d-league player but that was obviously not true. He’s obviously a flawed player but he’s also a bench player and has always been paid like a bench player; in addition to that he was constantly facing rehab from injuries, some of them very serious in nature. Personally I think people hated on his game for a lot of non-basketball reasons. I can understand not rooting for a guy you don’t like or care for as a person, but it’s silly to say he can’t play basketball because of it. He could pretty much play elite level defense since a rookie.
For years now it seemed everyone had given up on TA, everyone except that lone wolf, Brickowski. I kept thinking, if this guy really knows his stuff, why is he so enamored with TA? Turns out he was right about TA’s potential, consistent with much of the rest of his posts.
Nice analysis, Roy. I always enjoy your front page work. Very well thought out, and presented without bias. A rare skill.
Thanks, D Dub...
I try to save my bias for the forums. ;-)
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
#3 and #4
No question about it. #3 and #4 are the main reasons for the change in attitude towards TA. He is also healthier this year.
Just hope Sheed will may a similar turnaround next season.
Ive always backed Tony, from day one, and my dear friends know this. It makes me sick, the way a lot of fans here pick on him year after year. He has his flaws – which celtic player doesnt have flaws. Ill how he played back in 07, or whichever which year it was- when PP went down and he took over the team, offensively and defensively until he himself got hurt. He was the best player in that team. Many times I have wished, even today, that he would quit on us, go elsewhere and score a bunch of points against us every time he played against these ungrateful fans. he has always played with his heart out- He doesnt deserve to be spoken about – he doesnt need any of these detractors. he is one good player Larry Bid would have no problem playing with. Leave him alone
Me and you are two of the same...
On a previous article I posted his stats during the 10 or so games TA played in when PP was down in ’07. He not only took over as a leader of the team, but up until his horrifying injury, he was averaging around 20 ppg, 3 spg, and 6 rpg.
This kid has always been athletic as hell, and despite his sometimes detrimentally low basketball IQ, he ALWAYS gives 100% effort and plays with energy and determination. Many fans rip on TA for his lackluster plays and his lacking IQ. However, these fans fail to realize that despite all of these things, TA has ALWAYS (except throughout his injury recovery phase) been our best 1-on-1 defender. Like Rey says, leave the kid alone.
I do completely agree with your sentiment
but Larry did not want him on his team last summer, thankfully
by Warrior Spirit on Apr 22, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Energy and defense
don’t necessarily show up in the boxscore or stats. Neither does improved shot selection and improved understanding of one’s role. While these traits might not be able to be defined by statistics, it does not mean they are based solely on perception.
In fact, Tony has understood his role better this year than at any time since he has been with the team. He realizes that the way he gets playing time is by being a defense first guy, not a scorer. He gives the ball up on the break to Rondo more than at any time in the past. Doc has commented on these exact things a few times this year. Tony has matured, putting team first, not trying to establish himself as a star in the league, mostly done by accumulating gaudy stats, but doing what the team needs on a given night.
Despite what the #s say, it is clear Tony has made a marked improvement in his play this year.
Good Try, Roy
We all know this must have been a hard one for you to write. But I think you failed to identify what’s different.
See, the so-called ‘bad’ TA was just a product of perception and TA’s propensity for injury. The perception issues stem from the fact that TA’s mistakes (and his reaction to his mistakes) just stick out more readily than other players, giving people a mistaken impression of how much he actually screws up. As the #s have shown, this year’s TA is hardly any different than previous seasons (other than the specific categories you highlighted, like offensive fouls). TA’s always produced like this, when healthy and given consistent minutes. But the high impact nature of his mistakes (and his reaction to those mistakes), coupled with many injuries and the lack of confidence in both his game and body that those injuries engender, it’s no wonder that most people wrote him off…except those in the Celtics front office.
So, bad/good TA was just a product of perception and a multitude of injuries which exposed people to a higher than usual percentage of gimpy play (TA was playing on torn ankle ligaments from Dec. 2008 onwards last season, for example). What’s really going on with TA this season is that he’s finally ‘got it’—he’s 100% dedicated himself to the game and everything that entails. He’s reading scouting reports every game, studying game tape and opponent tendencies, getting in his strength/conditioning/stretching work each day to stay healthy, and buying in completely to his role. THIS is what the fans (and Doc Rivers) have noticed. Before, he was just ‘playing’—this season, he’s thinking the game.
So, yeah, you really can’t quantify what’s changed—the change came from within. Everyone matures at a different rate, and TA’s finally found a good place in his life where he’s focused intently on being the best basketball player he can be, working tirelessly on his body, his game, and his head. This is his TIME and he’s earned every minute of it.
There is actually one place where you can see a difference, if you’re looking for it: on the defensive end. Whereas before he was always a great individual defender, he never really ‘fit’ in the team defense, and so while he could man-up with the best of him, he would still miss rotations or loss focus away when he wasn’t guarding the ball. Those days are over. He’s fitting seamlessly into the team defense, and playing fantastic man and help defense, something which comes from knowing the game plan and knowing your role.
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Apr 22, 2010 9:18 AM EDT reply actions
I disagree...
See, the so-called ‘bad’ TA was just a product of perception and TA’s propensity for injury. The perception issues stem from the fact that TA’s mistakes (and his reaction to his mistakes) just stick out more readily than other players, giving people a mistaken impression of how much he actually screws up. As the #s have shown, this year’s TA is hardly any different than previous seasons (other than the specific categories you highlighted, like offensive fouls). TA’s always produced like this, when healthy and given consistent minutes. But the high impact nature of his mistakes (and his reaction to those mistakes), coupled with many injuries and the lack of confidence in both his game and body that those injuries engender, it’s no wonder that most people wrote him off…except those in the Celtics front office.
So, bad/good TA was just a product of perception and a multitude of injuries which exposed people to a higher than usual percentage of gimpy play (TA was playing on torn ankle ligaments from Dec. 2008 onwards last season, for example).
I disagree with the above (and it seems inconsistent with the second half of your objection, where you note that Tony’s game has, in fact, changed.) I think some of the areas I highlighted have changed. He’s committed fewer offensive fouls, he’s committing fewer turnovers overall, he’s been contributing more in crunch time, and he’s cut down significantly on his jump shots (and thus, his missed jump shots).
I think people who blame Tony’s solely for his struggles, and for fan issues with him, are missing the point. It wasn’t injuries that caused Tony to drive the ball into the teeth of the defense. It wasn’t injuries that caused him to bite on pump fakes, and it wasn’t injuries that caused him to shoot as many as 50% of his shots from outside. Those were cerebral issues, not physical ones.
Tony has committed himself this year to playing within the flow of the game and making good decisions. That’s a major change on his part, and even if the “surface” stats don’t show a major improvement, he has indeed gotten better.
The fact that Doc is relying on Tony to be a key piece in his rotation going into the playoffs is as much evidence as anything that Tony has improved his game this year. This isn’t the same old Tony we’ve seen over the years. Yes, some of the “good Tony” / “bad Tony” dichotomy is driven by perception, but some of it is also very real.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
We're almost in agreement
Improvement comes via repetition. Injuries and the recovering from injuries takes away value repetition opportunity, as did the transformation of this team into a title contender. Without this repetition, TA has stuggled to improve his game. The #s show, basically, that he’s been statistically the same player since he entered the league. What’s happening this season is that he’s finally had the health and maturity necessary to improve. THAT’S what everyone’s picking up on—the improvement. But the baseline version of TA was pretty good too…
See, it’s my contention that he’s always been this kind of player, yet injuries have held back his development, causing a stasis and leading towards the perception of ‘bad’ Tony, something created by the nature of his game, his reaction to mistakes, and the way he’s had to continually work himself back into rhythm, and rebuild his confidence ON THE FLOOR. The baseline of his game—that of an above-average NBA player—has been there all along, sometimes hidden via injuries or lack of confidence and the perception that he hasn’t been improving, yet still a great majority of people wrote him off as a bad player. He wasn’t—it was just a perception built up by circumstances and the superficial nature of fandom. He’s been a good player all along, from the first moment he stepped on an NBA court.
With continued good health, I expect him to continue to improve his game, raising his jump shot percentage and increasing his ability to play point guard (which he’s been doing very well in the last month). As I’ve been saying since December, this is his TIME. He should be an inspiration to everyone and an example of what hard work and perserverance can do.
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Apr 22, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmm...
I’d disagree with “he’s always been this kind of player”, since that’s not what he’s shown. I’d probably concede that “he’s always had the potential to be this kind of player”, though.
I’m still not nearly as high on Tony as you are, but he’s been a very good contributor this season, and I’m glad to see him settling into a role. His hustle, energy, and defense are going to be important in any potential Cleveland series.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Also...
This article wasn’t a hard one to write at all. We’re given freedom to write whatever we want here — Jeff doesn’t assign stories or censor viewpoints — and the change in perception related to Tony is a topic that I find interesting.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
the difference is that this year
TOny is our best defensive player whereas in prior years we had other guys like Posey. the other difference is the 3 pickups we had this year still don’t know our system so by default Tony is getting those minutes. People praise our D but it’s a hard system to learn so I wonder if we wouldn’t be better off having a second defense we could use for nate, sheed and daniels. we have essentially rendered them helpless and useless because they can’t play our D. Does it really have to be so complicated??
Tony's problem....
Has always been that he can’t shoot, and can’t dribble. I always hated on him in the past because I didn’t think there was a place in the new NBA for someone that does both literally worse than most high schoolers. He has proven me wrong, by cutting both of these out of his game completely. He NEVER shoots anymore, and honestly rarely dribbles more than one bounce and hop step to the hoop. In the past, he would try to drive from 20+ feet out, and then you get the “bad tony” dribble off the foot. When you catch the ball 12 feet and in, there’s no need for more than one hard bounce. In my mind, Tony is probably the best and only perimiter in the league who can succeed without either of those skills (shooting & ball handling). I LOVE seeing him D up, and only scoring on those sneaky back-door cuts and fast break layups/dunks.
Oh and just to rile up the crowd here, I’d bet money on tony being our starting 2 next year.
Interesting thought...
… but I’ll be very disappointed if Ray isn’t back next season. Two guards who can’t shoot is a recipe for an easily-defended offense, especially when neither of the big men have three point range.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Tony starting doesn't mean Ray can't come back...
In fact, if Ray does come back, I hope it’s with the understanding that he needs to come off the bench…
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Apr 22, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I just hate the idea of a starting lineup with only one three-point threat...
If Danny insists on Tony starting, I think Doc would be compelled to start Rasheed, which would be even more disastrous.
I’d prefer to keep the starting lineup the same, with Tony and BBD both getting more consistent minutes, so long as they continue to earn them.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
And yes...
… that means that I’m officially on the “re-sign Tony” bandwagon, mostly due to us having his Bird rights.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
As it's trending now...
TA would be primary backup at 1/2/3…meaning he’d be paired with Rondo at some point. I understand the need for shooting when those 2 are on the floor, but I’m not sure it needs to be 3 point shooting. Paul and KG should be enough to keep good floor space, especially if we started TA with an eye towards helping our perimeter D to start the game (giving up offense for more defense).
And I guess if you wanted more shooting, swapping Perk for Baby wouldn’t be a bad idea, though we could also probably just open up more room in the offense for Perk to shoot his 10-15 footer—something he has in his game, but something that he rarely unleashes.
I guess I’m saying that if they committed to TA in the starting lineup, they could find ways around his shooting limitations..(by inverting the offense, basically)…because even if he’s not starting, you’d want to find ways to pair him with Rondo at times. And, even now, the Rondo/TA backcourt has done enough good things together that I’m pretty sure it could work on a long term basis.
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Apr 22, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
He dribbles fine...
You do realize he’s been playing backup PG for the last 3 weeks, right? There’s a good amount of dribbling involved in that…
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Apr 22, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Theres a difference
SalmonandMashed thats just not true. Sure he can dribble up the court without pressure, but so could Perk. Tony would never be able to survive someone pressing him full-court as a PG (Think Delonte when he is pressing, or even Heinrich last year in Rondos grill all series). And he certainly couldn’t be a PG to the point of dribble penetration and/or running a pick-and-roll offense. When they play tony as a backup PG, its really more to guard the opposing PG, not as much for him to run point.
But again, I’m NOT knocking Tony as a player, just pointing out that he has learned to play away from his weaknesses, which are shooting and ball handling.
Not sure about that...
Admittedly, the sample is small, but Chalmers (who is decent defensively and pretty good at racking up steals against shaky dribblers) didn’t do anything against TA, and he was definitely trying to make him pick up his dribble or turn it over…and what actually happened is that TA dribbled right past him and found Baby for a layup (which was blocked, alas). In fact, Chalmers has tried to pressure TA all series long, and he hasn’t been successful.
If you had never seen either player and had only watched Game 1 and 2, wouldn’t you think Chalmers was the one who shouldn’t be playing PG? I mean, TA shut his dribble down when he was matched up against him, while Chalmers got deeked mulitple times by TA…
TA’s actually good if it’s just a one-on-one situation…his adventures with dribbling occur when he tries to dribble around 2-3 guys..usually a help defender is able to get a hand in there and knock it away. But against simple man pressure, TA can protect the ball well…
Being asked to be a defacto PG did slow TA in the past, but I think he’s finally figured out his limitations. While he shouldn’t do too much dribble penetration from the top of the defense (and very few really should), he’s still a very fine penetrator, one of the few we have in the rotation, and somebody who can actually run a pretty good pick-and-roll when called upon. TA’s game, when fully under control, is kinda like Paul’s—and Paul a fair share of shot creation for others when he’s placed in pick-and-roll situations…not that I’m saying we ought to feature TA pick-and-rolls…but he’s capable if needed.
Actually, if we wanna talk about underappreciated advantages to playing TA at point, the best is his ability to post up the other team’s backup point. I’d love to see us put him on the post against Arroyo at some point in this series…
by SalmonAndMashedPotatoes on Apr 22, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony
Tony has always been great.
He’s just been the scapegoat of a bunch of ignorant fans.
Tony CAN shoot – in two years in the Big 12, he scored over 1,000 points.
Tony CAN guard (better than anybody on the Celtics, for sure) – he was trained by Coach Sutton, the defensive guru.
Tony HAS more hustle in his little finger than anybody else o the team.
Tony was the Big 12 player of the year in both years that he was in the Big 12….newcomer one year – player of the year the second…..the Big 12 was overflowing with talent at his time there.
The ONLY reasons why Tony had been inconsistent is because of his numerous injuries – and his were SERIOUS injuries – not fake ones.
Tony has low self-esteem issues and makes more of his mistakes than most players – so the UNINFORMED fans notice that….
I'm going to quibble with the suggestion that Tony can shoot...
He simply hasn’t proven the ability to consistently do so at the NBA level. It’s just not a talent that he possesses at this stage.
Also, as stated above, Tony’s struggles can’t be attributed solely to injuries.
Lastly, we’re a long way from the Big 12. Tons of players do extremely well in college, and struggle in the pros. Tony’s performance at OSU has absolutely nothing to do with how he does today; he needs to be judged on his pro performance.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
That being said...
… I still want to emphasize that Tony has made some real strides this year. However, I’m still not as high on him as his biggest fans are. I think he’s a good role player for this team right now, but I don’t really have aspirations higher than that for him.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
One other factor: Finley
Tony over the last few weeks of this season has been better utilized in 5-man units that work with his strengths and hide his weaknesses on offense.
One of Tony’s ‘weaknesses’ for this team both last year and through much of this year has simply been the lack of ANY body other than Eddie (and then Nate) off the bench who had an outside shot. So when Tony was on the floor with the bench, teams would crowd the one outside shooter and sag off Tony and the rest of the slashers. That hurt TA’s ability to slash.
Adding Michael Finley has meant that Doc is always able to have 2 perimeter shooters (without having to keep Ray or Paul out there all the time) on the floor, which opens up the paint for Tony to slash. This positive effect doesn’t just show up in TA’s stats (the slight increase in his layup % and FG%) but also in the general effectiveness of the second-team offense. They end up with more efficient possessions, which helps in turn on the defensive end because the other team is unable to get transitions.
Otherwise, I do think that pretty much all the reasons you cite have some validity.
Good point.
All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino
Tony's strengths come out to play
When Doc stayed with Tony in game one against the Miami, he changed the game and deflated the Heat with his work on D. Wade. His part was key in the comeback.
His newly found success seems relatively simple to me. He’s more experienced and healthly, fully recovered from the major knee injury and other lesser injuries that kept knocking him off the court. Once he was back this season, he stayed pretty healthy the rest of the way to this point, an infrequent occurence in his Celtic’s career.
The experience shows in his defense which is aggressive, but more controlled and his court awareness has grown. On offense he plays within himself more, knows his role and goes away from his strengths far less frequently. His moves are more patient and his passing more consistent. He seems to understand much more of what’s coming at him on both offense and defense and he’s more consistently in the right place at the right time on both offense and defense.
And it has been in the last part of the season that we’ve been able to see this qualitative advancement in his game with more consistent minutes and a more consistent role for him when Doc decide to go to him as a key bench player in his roatation.
by SteveZ from Edgemont on Apr 23, 2010 2:40 AM EDT reply actions

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