Beware The 3rd Quarter Collapse

by Jeff Clark on May 14, 2010 9:16 PM EDT in Boston Celtics Articles

The data below comes from the Magic blog called Orlando Pinstriped Post (which ironically enough was once called 3rd Quarter Collapse).

There are some very interesting dynamics that take place from quarter to quarter, as you can see.

Team Quarter

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total

Celtics 89 91 74 93 347

Magic 94 56 106 96 352

Difference +5 -35 +32 +3 +5

One way to look at it is that the teams played evenly after the first quarter. A more relevant way to look at it is that Boston consistently owns the second, while Orlando seems to rally in the third. Those differences aren't skewed by just a few bad quarters, either; the Magic lost three of the four second quarters in this series, and tied the other. The same holds true for the Celtics in the third, losing three outright while tying the other. In a way, I think this bodes well for the Magic. Those second-quarter letdowns came with the second unit in the game. In the playoffs, coach Stan Van Gundy has relied on his starters more. Thus, in this series, the Magic's second-quarter play should improve.

Team	Quarter
1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Celtics	89	91	74	93	347
Magic	94	56	106	96	352
Difference	+5	-35	+32	+3	+5

I think this speaks well to Van Gundy's ability to adjust at halftime and make sure his players are on the same page headed onto the court for the 3rd quarter. In other words, we can't count on another Mike Brown coaching flub to give us an advantage. Doc will have to be proactive and at his motivational best to make sure the guys are ready to roll out of halftime.

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Comments

Fear is an illusion

One that does not affect my reality or my celtics

other teams now have more to think about and worry bout
keep the defensive intensity and we’ll be fine

by Warrior Spirit on May 14, 2010 9:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Get Howard In Foul Trouble

We should give Shelden some burn in this series on Howard and see if he can draw some fouls. If we get him off the court in foul trouble while being able to keep our key bigs out of foul trouble, then we can cover the perimeter better and not worry about colllapsing on Howard down low. If Howard is out, then they will be forced to shoot outside and we will have a better chance of defending the shot. Howard was in foul trouble in just about every game in the playoffs.

by JPV on May 14, 2010 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

The Celtics showed in both the Miami and Cleveland series

That they can fend off any attempts of the opponent to rally in the third quarter. I think Doc did a good job re-adjusting his strategy after the opposing coach adjusted his. Again, we will see how good of a coach is Doc.

Moreover, IMO, the boggest factor for a third quarter collapse is having a apparently insurmountable lead in the first half. The Celtics tend to relax going into the second half that is why they are often caught by surprise. The 14 losses wherein they had double digit leads is the evidence. The Celtics are a different team right now, that is why I have more confidence in them. They have that swagger back.

"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell

Yes, intimidation is the key to domination.

by Marjun Raposon on May 14, 2010 11:31 PM EDT reply actions

examples:

1) heat-celtics game 2: absolutely stepping on their throats in the third quarter
2) celtics-cavaliers game 2: same thing, blowing them out in the third but letting them back in a bit in the fourth, first blowout at the Q for the cavs
3) celtics-cavaliers game 3: absolutely killing them in the third, killing them in the fourth, handing the cavs the biggest blowout in franchise history

come to think of it, i never expected that the c’s would be blowing teams out.

by paolost on May 15, 2010 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions