FanPost

C's Poised to Fall or to Make History

That's right. Just one game into the Finals, and the C's are already in a position where they'll either succumb to history or make it. The significance of Game 1 of a playoff series? According to a Lakers fan taunting C's fans on Celticshub, Lakers coach Phil Jackson is 47-0 when winning Game 1 of a playoff series. I haven't checked anywhere to verify this, but if it's true, well, that's an overwhelming number.

Of course, a big part of it is that Jackson really just has an outstanding playoff record: 51-8. He was 28-3 with the Chicago Bulls and is 24-5 with the LA Lakers (so far). If we're looking for a ray of light, well, he's winning a slightly lower percentage of playoff games with the Lakers than he was with the Bulls.

I've never been one to put so much weight on historical numbers--you know, how many teams have won a series when down 3-2, that kind of thing--because to me, they talk about what has happened, but they don't dictate what will happen. These numbers have no actual effect on what's going to happen. They didn't even have an effect on what happened in the past. These numbers don't dictate the outcomes of games; it's the outcomes that dictate the numbers. It's like shooting percentage. Ray Allen doesn't make around 9 of every 10 free throw attempts because his FT% is 90%. His FT% is 90% because he makes 9 of every 10 free throws. The players/teams are in control of the numbers, not the other way around.

Nevertheless, these numbers aren't completely useless. They did not dictate past outcomes, and they will not dictate future outcomes, but they do show us trends and tendencies. 8-seed teams tend to lose in the first round. Teams that win the first 2 games of a series on the road tend to win the series. Teams up 3-0 tend to win a playoff series in 5 games or less.

And Phil Jackson's teams tend to win a playoff series when they win Game 1.

Which is why I really wish the C's had taken Game 1. Add in Phil Jackson's record of 4-8 when losing Game 1, and I really, really, really wish the C's had taken Game 1.

But I will try my best not to overreact to one game, because it is just one game. I will try my best not to overreact to the numbers, because they don't dictate what will happen. And I will not assume that the Celtics will fall victim to history, because they have an opportunity to make history.

And if there's one team in the NBA that's all about making history, it's the Boston Celtics.

UPDATE (June 6, 2010)

Apparently, this whole 47-0 business is a relatively big story, having been covered in this article from the Boston Herald. Here's what Celtics Head Coach Doc Rivers had to say about it:

"Well, you know, it’s like I told our guys, because I assumed that this would come up," said the Celtics coach. "I don’t know the record. I said also the last time we were in the Finals no team had ever come down from 24 in the second half. At some point, it happened."

Gotta love that!

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