The Injury Issue/Excuse
Danny Ainge was on WEEI the other day talking about the offseason and explaining why he has made the moves he's made so far and I picked up on a recurring theme. Injuries.
His reason for signing Jermaine O'Neal despite the horrible postseason he had was that O'Neal was playing through an ankle injury that limited him. So presumably he'd be a better player for us (he did have a very solid season for Miami last year). Along those same lines, he reminded us that Ray Allen was playing through a severe thigh bruise that happened early in the game following his record breaking performance in the Finals. So presumably we can hope for better performances in the future. Finally, he talked a bit about how both Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett both played much better when they weren't hurt towards the end of the season and into the playoffs.
All of this should make Celtics fans feel a little better about how this team is going to fare next year now that the gang has largely been brought back together again. Or should it?
This team has the talent to win the Championship. That has been the case for the last 3 years. But because of the age of the starters, there's always an "if" statement that has to be tossed in there. "If they can stay healthy and rested." The chances of each individual player staying healthy a whole season and into the playoffs becomes less and less every year. When you are talking about 4 critical pieces of the puzzle being over 30 with a history of nagging injuries or worse, the chances of losing one or more of them for significant stretches including the playoffs becomes exponentially greater. And I'm not even counting "young" Kendrick Perkins who just had major surgery.
Those are the cards we've been dealt as fans and that's not such a bad thing really. I'll take that chance over another year of rebuilding in Minnesota or Milwaukee or Philadelphia. I mean, at least we've got a shot. Maybe it is just one more shot, and maybe its a longshot, but its a shot. And the worst case is that the team gets one last run together before fading off into the sunset. At least they got that one banner (at the expense of the Lakers no less).
And when you look at it, the choices that Danny was given this offseason were limited. He could blow the whole thing up and start the rebuilding around Rondo era or he could roll the dice and hope for health and one last run. He chose the latter and I'm happy he did.
I'm even happier that he's limited each of the contracts to just two years (with the exception of course of Paul Pierce's - which is fine with me too). My most realistic scenario is that the team gives a good go of it this year (likely falling short, but as this year taught us, you never know). Then the following year should be locked out for most if not all the season. With a new CBA in place Danny will have tons of financial flexibility with $41M in expiring contracts.
At that point he'll be able to trade those contracts for big named veterans from teams that aren't as well situated financially or he'll be able to clear the decks and start building from scratch. That is assuming Danny Ainge is still around running the show by then. This is a guy that works tirelessly and has already had a heart attack. At one point during his coaching career he took time off to be with his family. Who's to say he won't call it a career right around the time the Big 3 do? Of course this is all speculation, but that's what the offseason is for.
Hopefully we'll be able to beat the odds next year. Hopefully we'll be able to limit the injuries and get the team rested and ready for the playoffs. We can put off rebuilding for another couple years. And if Danny plays his cards right, we have a shot at avoiding it altogether. And that's really all I need right now. Just that shot.
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We play with the cards we're dealt
I;d rather have this team back then starting over with no clue. Seems that avoiding injury is the key. That’s great in theory but might I suggest we try to get a serviceable enough bench that can at least maintain a lead so we can keep these guys healthy through the season.
what this team needed
SIMPLE——STODDLEMIER AND BOSC————GOT NEITHER!!!!1
Uh, HOW were you going to get those guys?
by Stanford_Fan on Jul 18, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you think?
He can’t spell their names or the sentence. Writes in all caps. Obviously knows nothing about the salary cap or that we actually good on PFs and we need centers and none of those guys are actually centers even if they have to play that position sometimes. He just wants them. NOW. Period.
Just one question...
Who will be backing up JO?
"Semih" Pro Erdin
but only if you want it
Natural abilities are like natural plants; they need pruning by study.
by CeesinLAgot18 on Jul 17, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
My point exactly.
Nobody want to talk about the back up center. Nobody wants to talk about getting bigger, taller and longer. The big 3 are back. But even the captain says Boston needs more.
Indeed
No half decent free agent big would be rushing to sign at the minimum. Hence, Ainge is waiting to see how the chips may fall.
we'll get somebody
though it might not be the guy we want
we might end up having to settle for someone like Theo Ratliff
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Ratliff versus Erden
… which is why Ainge may ultimately figure that it is better to keep the likes of Erden towards the end of the bench, namely the eleventh to fifteenth roster spots.
Without wishing to throw too much of a curveball at the discussion, why should Ainge fortify the rotation beyond the tenth spot, when Doc Rivers rarely plays a rotation of more than eight or nine?
In 2009 . . .
We almost go through Dwight Howard with Glen Davis as our 2nd string center, and Mikki Moore as the 3rd stringer . . . last time I checked – we still have Glen Davis on the roster? Now we have JO’Neal, Davis with Perk coming back late winter. Either Erdin will make the team or they will have to sign a FA like a Theo Ratliff.
The largest hole that remains is the SG/SF followed by the F/C. Harangody will spell some relief at SF/PF pending matchups behind Garnett and Davis and that’s why I’d make the wing guy the priority, and they have to have something up their sleeve with the RWallace contract.
by ManchvegasBob on Jul 18, 2010 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
Let’s face it, a backup for JO (while he subs for Perk in the 1st half of the season) is someone who’s gonna play 10-15 minutes a night. I’m sure they’ll use BBD there depending on matchups. Someone like Ratliff is fine for that role. Who’s the Fakers backup center? Josh Powell? Odom is a SF/PF, and using Gasol there more adds a ton of minutes to his season. Backup bigs are not plentiful, even on the elite teans.
Besides, if this season taught us anything it’s that the 1st half doesn’t count for squat, and neither does the 2nd half for that matter. I don’t care about their regular season record anymore. Play hard and play to win, but don’t pull a KC Jones and kill the starters. Let’s be healthy and fresh for the playoffs.
- JoeB
by joeb on Jul 18, 2010 8:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
id rather have scal back
than most of the FA bigs out there that we can afford. id like kwame brown for the min because of his defense and rebounding but it’s unlikely.
that said and doc’s love for scal id have to guess he’s returning as our other big
"Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die."
im gonna be all up on you like a spider monkey!
i can just see delonte west winning a game of poker against lebron, throwing down the cards he yells, "who's your daddy!"...."oh, sorry man"
by remembering9ergods on Jul 18, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
No, but the list of free agents is getting shorter by the day.
DA must be out of his mind if he thinks this team can compete as is.
Trades
coming soon!
Natural abilities are like natural plants; they need pruning by study.
by CeesinLAgot18 on Jul 17, 2010 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
A very good question.
Right now, that would be BBD & Semih Erden …
KG can play C if necessary, but we are generally better off with him slightly out from the basket on both offense and defense so neither he nor Doc like him in that role.
It would be good if we could pick up someone to provide additional depth there. I wouldn’t be surprised if DA picks up someone for the vet minimum before all is said and done.
i think 'sheeds going to come back
the talk about him changing his mind ahs picked up as of late. pierce said he didnt know if he would retire still or not. ’sheed still in boston had dinner with jermaine who said he planned to talk him out of retiring….writing is on the wall
"Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die."
im gonna be all up on you like a spider monkey!
i can just see delonte west winning a game of poker against lebron, throwing down the cards he yells, "who's your daddy!"...."oh, sorry man"
by remembering9ergods on Jul 18, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
the injury excuse
i would first like to say i am of the opinion having the boys come back and go for another championship is/was the best way to go. With that being said there comes a point where old players playing badly because they a have a injury just can’t fly any more. If a older player isn’t playing well because it was found out he had a injury does that mean he still has it but was injured or is that just what happens when i player is on the decline. Injuries and drops in performance are just what happens when you get old. And it is up to the powers that be to determine whether or not the talent can over come the consent nagging injuries or is it better to get some fresh, talented legs.
btw if the goal is to win a championship going with a similar team to last year is clearly the best option. You guys said it best you are just as good as you options, or you could force your options. :)
YOUR CRAZY
this team needed stars to replace the older ones——they all went to miami
But Celtics had ABSOLUTELY zero chance at those guys...
C’mon…Get real…
by Stanford_Fan on Jul 18, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Injuries happen to *young* teams too.
Houston?
Portland?
Every team’s chances are based on being healthy.
Age is relative and for these highly conditioned pro athletes, its not like we are talking about geriatric 85 year olds with osteoporosis. The chance of incurring an injury in the NBA is not really any different for a 32 year old player than it is for a 24 year old. SOME kinds of injuries may take longer to heal by a marginal amount, but only some and not really by that big of a difference as some like to make it out to be. In other words for some injuries, a 33 year old might take 12 days to recover while a 23 year old might take only 10. But for many other types of injuries there will be no difference.
The real danger that age brings is flat-out decline, not injury. That is, simple degradation of muscle power such that speed & explosiveness are lost. But those are things you usually see happen across a 2-3 year span. During that you should see a marked drop in most efficiency stats and shooting percentages away from career averages. There is a real danger that one or more of our ‘old’ guys might finally show the first signs of decline this year.
So far, none of our ‘Big 3’ have shown any sign of decline in their key efficiency stats. When healthy, KG, Paul & Ray all performed near or better than their career averages in most of the important stats this year.
That is no guarantee that will hold up this year, of course. Ray’s type of game is in theory the most vulnerable. KG’s value on the team is primarily the way he controls the paint and disrupts passing lanes on defense – that is not likely to decline much with age. Pierce’s game is based on powering to the hoop for high percentage layups and dunks and not quickness – that should hold up well, as should his set-shot 3PT shooting and free throw shooting. Ray is a precision jump-shooter – that kind of game deteriorates with age as the explosiveness and precision is lost in the legs. We just saw the effect of him getting kneed in the thigh in Game 3 of the finals – his jump shot was toast for the next few games until late in Game 7.
That said, of the three, Ray is the one who seems to be in the most unbelievable condition – he is more fit than most guys 10 years younger. He just posted the second most minutes of any Celtic this last year (barely behind Rondo). He’s like an eveready battery – he never stops moving.
"The chance of incurring an injury in the NBA is not really any different for a 32 year old player than it is for a 24 year old."
strongly disagree with this statement
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
You may disagree, but if you survey the literature
there is no real data to suggest that injury rates are that different.
Anecdotally – last year’s injury list for the Celtics included BBD, TA, Perk, Quis & even Rondo as well as KG & Pierce. It didn’t include Ray or Sheed.
And my other point, about healing rates only being marginally different is well supported – numbers i’ve seen show increases in healing time on the order of 15-18% for athletic men in their 40s over those in high school. That suggests that pro athletes in their early-mid 30s are going to heal at only a marginally slower rate than guys in their 20s.
Injuries happen. And they suck. Look at the Red Sox.
But they happen capriciously to anybody at almost anytime. You can’t do much more than try to have the depth to survive them when they happen and hope that all your studs are healthy when the playoffs hit.
picking nits
fine, injuries happen to everyone, but the older you get, the longer it takes your body to recover from them
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
Yup
but as studies show, its not that much longer for a 35 yr old vs a 25 yr old male athlete.
Agreee with mmmm
Please read what he said before saying things.
Also the older player becomes more experienced, and avoids situations which can cause injuries. In theory, I have no studies to back that up.
Like Rasheed?
Like Rasheed, who literally coasted through the regular season.
In fact, there was a very good article written on this issue at this website.
three words
wear and tear. the more wear you got the more likely your gonna tear
sorry
But what is the relevance to the JO backup ? Really-get a grip-we’ve got JO who is a bona fide 5 to start the season and will move to the bench when Perk comes back and DA will sign someone for the vet min-what else do you want? Thanks for this Jeff-completely agree.
by McHaleinthepost on Jul 17, 2010 11:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
You are right...
JO will play 48 minutes a game until Perk comes back in JAN. Ofcourse Perk will be 100%.
I hope Perkins comes off of the bench next season.....
If the Celtics are playing the first 50-55 games of the season with JO at center, they will probably have developed a cohesiveness with him by February. Bringing back Perkins as a starter could ruin the flow. Of course, if the Celtics are struggling to stay over .500 I might change my mind.
really
BS, BS, AND MORE BS—THIS TEAM NEEDS A BIRD, A PARISH TYPE OR EVEN A HAVLICHEK TYPE——BUT AINGE GETS WHAT>> WHAT TYPE??
The question is
Has Doc changed his philosophy? If he really believes that health is the key, will we see the the rookies get more time? I would take that, a few more regular season losses, and perhaps end up with a deeper team for the playoffs.
Playing rookies...
depends on how quickly they grasp the plays, etc. Don’t forget you have to win enough to get to the playoffs to begin with. So you can believe health is key, and that you need to rest the starters for the playoffs, but unless the rookies can deliver, the starters will be forced to pick up the slack. A sound philosophy has to take into consideration the changing realities and adjust accordingly.
"You're about as useful as a one-legged man at an arse kicking contest." Rowan Atkinson
by The Village Idiot on Jul 18, 2010 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoffs
Getting to the playoffs should be quite easy, as we are odds on to win the Atlantic Division. Even though we may lose home court advantage throughout the playoffs, as it is based upon overall records, the worst seed we would probably get in this scenario is fourth.
Village Idiot - Might be a good year to explore that option...
a little more than the Cs have in the past.
its not even being actually on the DL
the last 3 years the Celtics have had 3 very physical playoffs and this year went as deep in the playoffs as you can. When the spurs (another older team) won there championships it was always every other year and based on health. Going deep in the playoffs two years in a row is extremely hard and you must be fresh. Sorry to say but the Lakers could do it because they were younger. To me the reason KG got hurt in 08-09 has a lot to do with the deep playoff run in 07-08
Just don’t want to drop that backup C bone. Well, I’m sure DA will find someone who can come off the bench and spell JO for 10 mins, but don’t let me interrupt your obvious fixation with this issue
by McHaleinthepost on Jul 17, 2010 11:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
kwame brown would be a nice backup for JO while perk is out. Kwame based on size and athletic ability is way better than Shelden Williams.
Has Doc changed his philosophy? If he really believes that health is the key, will we see the the rookies get more time?
i would say no based on track record. i do see Harangody playing a reasonable a.mount of minutes maybe 10-12. not so much Bradley based on the comments Ainge made about him being only 19 and needing to learn the game and get physical stronger
wonder if ray's sore thigh
was the result from artest kneeing him in game 3
Even funnier,was when Wade said " I feel sorry for whoever has to guard us". Uh, I'm pretty sure there is a defense right here in Boston that specializes in punking teams just like yours Dwyane. Nobody scores on us easily.
yes, it was.
I rewatched the series last week (i’m a glutton).
It was a pretty painful hit. Probably left him with a charlie horse.
I think so
I m ray rays life long fan, and I really have too dig deep to find missing streak that he hitted after knee in game 3. It happened in 1st or 2nd qtr and after that he went 0-14 or 0-15 during next 3 games (altogether 0-16 cause he missed one shot before being on recieving end of that artest knee), but the point is not in number of missed shots its in type of shots he was missing…
Wide open ones… I never saw him doing that more than once or twice in career, its different when he shoots 2-11 or something while shooting with hand in the face and fighting off bad screens with shoot clock on 2 and missing like this, so I m convinced his jump leg was an issue.
Being proffesional as he is he never bothered to say it out loud but the people who know his game, knew that something is wrong with that picture.
On topic I really don’t know what is more worth, thw health issue or the home court advantage…
I want to cry when I think about all those 4qtr big leads lost this past regural season (and there were deff more than 7 games like that which would put us in front of fakers and get the game 7 in garden..but thats coulda woulda shoulda sphere..) which could make it easier on us during playoffs.
So the big question here is does it matter more to have home court advantage going into playoff series or was it the freshness in legs we got by tanking the regular season a bit the reason why we won at least 2 games as guest during every playoff series on east?
I really don’t know.
Finally although I know that this willl be tl;dr type of post I really have to say that as a Croat I had limited NBA players from my home country playing here (Kukoc, Petrovic and Dino Radja mostly) and I am a celts fan ever since ’90s because of Radja I have to say that I really enjoy every second of being contender, no matter how small the chances are, so kudos to DA, its right thing to ride this wave as long as it last.
Bynum was injured
Injury is an equalizer in pro sports. Can happen to the highest paid teams and give hope (“We’re healthy”) to underdogs. The Lakers got it done despite a gimpy center. It is a reason not to top load your roster at the expense of depth. We’ll see about that this year in Miami.
I keep seeing Erden’s name get mentioned. He did not look like aN NBA caliber player in Summer League. Better be looking elsewhere.
What do you really expect of a backup center?
Can he rebound? Can he defend? Can he make ’gimme’s’? Remember our backup (barring again the injury thing) will be playing against their backup. The only two backups on the oppositions I have seen that were at all tough were Gortat and Varejo. So, I think Erden can give us a few minutes, especially if he uses his fouls when beat. And perhaps the Artsi Parcheesi Balurian can give a few. At least he can rebound.
Of course us ‘experts’ are worried….but I havent’ heard Danny moan and groan yet….but of course, what does he know!
Injurys will be the key next year....
Its that simple.
If the C’s can stay healthy they will make a run… if not then not.
I also worry about the age of the players playing a factor in injury’s and wish we the C’s could be and get younger……but hey these are the players we have and will have to play the games with so lets hope for the best in health and performance.
Injuries, sure, but . . .
I can agree with the basic premise of what Jeff is saying. Heck, both Paul and KG weren’t 100% either. But the year before Paul was tired and hurt. So was Ray. JO is injury prone, and we don’t know what to expect from KG. Perk’s not going to be 100% this year.
I like the JO signing, but Danny’s pretty much gone all in here, we live and die by whether or not these guys can stay relatively healthy throughout the season, and whether Doc will not overplay people even in the playoffs.
One other thing besides injuries, Doc has to revise the fourth quarter play.
Injuries and research/surveys/studies
Hey mmmmm, I’d love to see the research you reference in your posts. You can probably tell I disagree with your point, but if you could provide more details, it would help the discussion. Thanks.
Just some starting points
On healing rates, there are other articles that bury this issue in among other topics – this one is fairly accessible:
http://www.faqs.org/sports-science/A-Ba-and-timeline/Age-Related-Responses-to-Injury.html
On performance declines due to age, a linked article from there:
http://www.faqs.org/sports-science/A-Ba-and-timeline/Aging-and-Athletic-Performance.html
Broad discussion on age-related physiological qualitative changes (unfortunately very short on numbers):
http://www.worldortho.com/dev/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2231
There are tons more articles out there – unfortunately most do not directly go after the specific questions of concern here. You have to suffer through a lot of other stuff to stumble on a relevant tidbit here and there.
I could find no decent survey of injury rates by pro athletes as a function of age – thus my contention that no data supports that oft-repeated “truism” that older athletes get injured more often.
The problem is that when we talk about ‘older’ athletes in this context (the NBA) we are really talking about guys of age 31-35 who are not like “the rest of us”. These guys are genetically among the elites of our species for physical prowess and are further supported by advanced training regimens, nutrition and sports medicine.
So while in ‘the real world’ it is logical and easy to accept that ‘older athletes’ have, ahem, problems – in ‘the real world’ we are not talking about those guys I just mentioned. In ‘the real world’ an ‘older athlete’ is a 45 year old businessman playing a pickup game with his neighbors or a 50 year old joining a community softball league.
SO we have to step back for a second and realize that, ‘old’ is relative. Yes these guys are old compared to rookies coming into the league. But they are still sitting within the window for peak physical activity for human males (ages 25-35 is generally considered peak for men in most athletic activity). They are still decades away from worrying about major bone loss and neuroligical decay and stuff that really marks ‘old age’!
As one of the articles above notes, mental factors are often the bigger issue. Guys get burned out. Even if physically able to play the game, their mind and heart may no longer be up for it.
Every team should have a developmental big or two
I welcome having Semih on the team. With a project center, there has to be a beginning and middle of the project, not just the end. (See Perkins, Kendrick.)
It is hard to judge ANY of our bigs’s summer league performances, because Lafayette was a selfish ball-hog who would only pass to Harangody.
With a decent vet (Thomas, Rasho, etc.), Semih, and maybe even another developmental big until Perk comes back, we should be OK.
"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark
Lets talk about our best possible team come May and June
Is it not obvious that we are better off if Sheed returns, especially in light of the fact that Mia is weak up front, what LA’s strengths are, and now we throw out KG, Perk, JO, Sheed, and Baby at teams?? I know we need an athletic wing who can also shoot but at least a few are off the market. We have to get rest for PP and Ray, I think it cost us the title that there wasn’t enough offense from their backups last year(Ta, Marquis). Translation is we desperately need a wing but we can solve a huge problem if Sheed will come back. Our best shot is next year, after that….
Yes, Boston certainly does need another warm big body.
Shaq is looking better and better
Yeap that dosen't look that bad but?
J.O i’t’s better than Shaq right now but I don’t see it that he want to come from the bech.
I recall Rhondo wearing thigh pads in the playoffs [maybe ever shoulders pads at one point ;)]. Maybe Ray needs to start wearing them, in the playoffs at least.
Only against Artest since he is the guy who did it.....
…by the way, between Artest’s knee to Allen’s thigh and Bynum’s 285 lbs. coming down on Perkin’s back in the 1st quarter of game 6, that was quite a series for the Lakers.
Yeah, brutal.
Add that to the pounding that Dwight Howard dished out in the Magic series …. No one can say this Celtics team hasn’t had to tough it out!

























