Run It Back: The Good, Bad, & Ugly
by Jeff Clark on Jul 26, 2010 5:21 AM EDT
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47 comments
Meet this year's team, same as last year's team (with a few minor changes here and there). The good news: the team that was a few quarters away from winning the Championship will be back. The bad news: the team that looked battered, bruised, aged, and at times uninterested during the regular season will also be back. The ugly truth: they'll be a year older and the East may have gotten a lot better this offseason. So will the team be Championship contenders again? The short answer is that I just don't know. The longer answer follows.
Ok, good news first. These truths we hold to be self evident. When healthy, rested, and fully focused, this team can beat anyone, anytime, anywhere. Mostly due to defense but also because they share a common focus on team-first basketball. In fact, that same unity gets them through a lot of not-so-ideal situations like injuries and even in-house squabbles. They are steered by a coach that has earned their respect and admiration and in turn he has put his faith and trust in them long after everyone else has written them off.
Garnett, a year removed from surgery, might just come back stronger next season. Paul Pierce keeps getting knocked around and keeps on going. Ray Allen is such a physical training nut and he'll probably outlive us all. Rondo is still young and invincible while Perkins will be back in time for the stretch drive. If all goes according to plan we will be once again counted out by the national media and once again take great joy in knocking off the higher profile teams in the East.
Now the bad news. Reading what I just wrote, there are too many "if" and "might" statements to count. A lot has to fall right for a return trip to the Finals. Last year was a dream run in the playoffs given what a train wreck the regular season was like. What are the chances the team can flip the switch successfully once again?
We are starting at day zero with a major injury to one of our starters and Perkins is one of the "younger" players on the team. What if Garnett with all the miles on his legs ends up being even less of a factor? Rebounding was a major concern last year and KG's numbers are trending in the wrong direction. If he ends up being just a jump shooter, he's a lot less valuable to us. If he loses his lateral movement and can't defend the way he's known for, he's just going to get more and more frustrated and less and less productive. This concerns me greatly.
And then there's the ugly. Is Jermaine O'Neal going to be an upgrade over Rasheed Wallace or is he set for a decline of his own? Are we really headed into the season with Big Baby and "Semih-pro" Erden as the backup center rotation? Will Marquis Daniels be the kind of guy that we thought we were signing up for last year or the kind of guy that we ended up getting last year? Can rookie Avery Bradley replace some of the defensive energy that Tony Allen brought off the bench? Will the Shrek & Donkey show develop enough consistency to carry us through the offensive droughts that plagued the team in the Finals? Will Danny be able to turn Rasheed's contract into a valuable piece to the team? Lots of question marks there.
Oh, and by the way, if you thought it was tough last year for Doc to motivate the troops during the regular season, wait till he tries it this year (now that they've proven they can flip the switch in the Spring).
Meanwhile, they are busy printing Finals tickets in South Beach. Maybe it will work or maybe it won't, but you can certainly add them to the list of legitimate title contenders. Granted, you can cross the Cavs from that list but the Bulls just got a lot better and the Magic aren't getting any worse (and if they add Chris Paul... well, wow). Rondo is right, those other teams haven't won nothin' but the '08 Celtics hadn't won nothin' ...until they did. It will be an interesting year to say the least.
So a year from now when we look back on the coming year, what will be the prevailing theme? Will it be mostly good? Could there be a little too much bad? Or will it be downright ugly? Your thoughts and predictions are welcome.
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There are only two things I am worried about that might affect our season...
Will we see more of game three Ray Allen or Lights out Game 2 Jesus Shuttlesworth?… my crystal ball says we see alot of games where Ray will just flat out dissappear. He has done it last yr in the regular season and more so in the finals.. Now that we have bitten the bullet, we have no choice but to ride it out and see what happens.
KG losing his explosiveness right before our very eyes…that 3 rebound effort in game seven really stings, Had he been KG’sque like and rebounded at least 4 more, we could have won against the Fakers. That is the question, will we see KG, or will we see KG playing like POB.
If there is one shining glimmer of hope I have, Its Rondo, I am almost certain, the guy will improve more by leaps and bounds it will just mask the Big old three’s decline.
"No I’m not KG. Not at all, but I’m Big Baby Glen Davis from LSU, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I’m not the Big Ticket. I’m the Ticket Stub. Don’t count the Ticket Stub out. You might need the ticket to get in the game, but you leave with the ticket stub, because you’ll never forget this game."
Extremely painful reminders...
We desperately needed KG & Ray to come up “BIG” in Game 7…instead, they came up microscopically “SMALL”.
Ainge is hamstrung by contracts from doing anything significant to improve the team this year.
Only minor cosmetic changes for the next 2 years.
…… , . – . – , _ , ……… http://www.traderwear.com Will we see more of game three Ray Allen or Lights out Game 2 Jesus Shuttlesworth?… my crystal ball says we see alot of games where Ray will just flat out dissappear. He has done it last yr in the regular season and more so in the finals.. Now that we have bitten the bullet, we have no choice but to ride it out and see what happens. KG losing his explosiveness right before our very eyes…that 3 rebound effort in game seven really stings, Had he been KG’sque like and rebounded at least 4 more, we could have won against the Fakers. That is the question, will we see KG, or will we see KG playing like POB. "No I’m not KG. Not at all, but I’m Big Baby Glen Davis from LSU, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I’m not the Big Ticket. I’m the Ticket Stub. Don’t count the Ticket Stub out. You might need the ticket to get in the game, but you leave with the ticket stub, because you’ll never forget this game."
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There are only two things I am worried about that might affect our season...
If there is one shining glimmer of hope I have, Its Rondo, I am almost certain, the guy will improve more by leaps and bounds it will just mask the Big old three’s decline.
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Great way to start off the work week
First,i enjoyed reflecting while reading this article which made me think,thats basically how last season went,a mix of the good,bad,and the ugly…i guess it depends on which order it comes if it has to be.It was good in the early stages of the season,then things got bad with a number of injuries starting to turn up,and towards 3/4 way of the season,it got downright ugly.The good kicked back in just in time to make what was starting to look like a disastrous season turn out successful.Lets not be so quick to push the panic button ,there probably will be more peaks and valleys to come.
This article may be premature - a case of jumping the gun.
It starts with “Meet this year’s team.” I’m hoping the squad isn’t set yet, and that Ainge will in Shaq. That would make it quite a different team. Rasheed was a plus last year, but he stayed out on the perimeter, far too much. Shaq would know to be down in the paint.
Secondly, and I may be grasping at straws, there’s the chance Garnett’s knee will be significantly improved over last year. The flip side, of course, is maybe it won’t, and maybe Perkins won’t contribute at all.
You are correct, Danny isn't done -
- It’s fun to speculate though…but many times I find myself wanting to type “wake me in November”
- For all we know, next week we could be writing how Shaq is coming, or Josh Howard, or…
=
Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk
C's should be in the hunt again for a banner again....
heading into the season but Danny still does need to plug up a few more holes.
1) The back court is pretty solid:
Ray and Rondo are the starters and Robinson and Bradley are the back ups
It would be nice to get a veteran combo guard with some size for the vet minimum.
2) The small forward position is still a problem:
You have Pierce as the starter but with TA gone thier is no strong backup off the bench behind him.
I do not think Daniels is the answer so hope the C’s can find a solid wing player preferably one who can defend and score a bit prior to the season.
Barnes would of been a nice addition as he would of gave the C’s nice defense and some scoring off the bench.
3)The power forward position is in pretty good shape :
With KG, Jermaine and Baby all rotating in the position.
I still would like to see a the C’s obtain a power forward with bulk and length who can play the power forward position since KG and Jermaine are thin power forwards and Baby suffers fron lack of length.
I still hope Sheed comes back as he can perform spot duty at the position especially against big power forwards and would offer both length and bulk simultaneously that KG, Jermaine and Baby do not provide.
4)The center position is still a weak spot….until Perk comes back
Jermaine can not do the job alone and needs help.
Shaq at the right price would be a nice pick up.
Again having Sheed come back would also be great as he would add great depth at the position coming off the bench.
In a dream scenario signing Shaq with a min contract and having Sheed come back would give the C’s a great front court depth with alot of size and would make them very tough for teams to match up against.
You have Shaq, Sheed, Perk,. Baby, JO and KG on the team to fill 2 spots
its enough if Shaq or Sheed are on the team(even if Perk is gone until April) At least imo. But I agree with everything else and the need for Shaq or Sheed. I think Marquis will be fine but we do need JHoward or some good wing. Bradley, Harangody, JO are going to be the net adds. Being 1/2 a quarter short, they will be enough
The glass is closer to full than you think...
I agree wholeheartedly. Bring in Shaq, Rasheed returns, and the front line is the best in the NBA with multiple line-ups available because players like JO/Sheed can play the PF spot. Let’s let the summer of rest come to completion so KG/PP are stronger going into camp. Davis will have the benefit of starting fresh and healthy and not missing the first 26 games and MD will be healthy and ready to prove himself, as long as he gets all of TAs minutes and his own. I like this team but with Shaq & Sheed on-board I would love this team’s chances to raise #18. Go Cs…
why I'm not optimistic
1. Pierce, KG and Ray are a year older
2. Pierce and Ray couldn’t deliver in games 6 and 7 when we needed them to. WHy do we think they will deliver this year when they’re older.
3. Older player get injured more.
4. We lost TA and don’t have a defensive stopper and don’t give me Marquis daniels. He’s too soft.
5. we have no proven back up small forward and we have no back up shooting guard unless you want to count bradley and he’s a rookie.
6. OUr starting center is out until January at least and even if he returns who knows how effective he will be.
7. The wallace situation is still unresolved. Frankly, I almost hope he comes back since we need size. but if he comes back he better be in shape.
8. We lack shooting on our bench.
9. we have no front court depth and the guy we signed to be our starting center is old and injury prone.
*ouch!* My Head! What the?
Oh … it was just an acorn.
I don't really disagree with everything, just a few comments
1. Yup. As is everybody else (you and m’self included).
2. Maybe because we hope that next time we will have our full Big rotation for that last game? (See the topic for Item # 6 in your list).
3. Not proven by any study I could find (And I’ve looked).
4. TA was indeed a very good perimeter defender and he will be missed. Daniels is a plus defender as well, even if arguably not as good as TA. He does, however, have a much better offensive game. We also have added Bradley who is thought to be a plus man defender at the 1/2. Overall, I’m not too overly worried about losing TA, though I’ll miss his gigantic dunks.
5. Daniels is our current backup at SF and last year ‘when healthy’ (yeah, I know …) was very effective substituting for Pierce. I agree though we could still use a 2/3 backup who can shoot. Harangody in theory could provide some 4/3 backup so overlaps with backing up SF against some lineups. He does provide offense and rebounding from that spot from the deep bench. But you don’t want to depend too much on any rookie until they’ve proven they can do it in the NBA.
6. Yep – this is the number one reason to be pessimistic. We need Perk in a huge way. If we can secure one more quality veteran Big, then we would still have a chance in the case Perk doesn’t come back . But if not, it all comes back to Perk.
7. I don’t disagree, but I don’t think Sheed is coming back. We will eventually deal his contract. ‘May not happen for a while.
8. Yeah – this is the same sore spot we endured most of the last two years and it would be nice to find some vet-minimum wing who can provide perimeter shooting at the 2/3 without sucking on defense.
9. Jermaine O’Neal is not really that old. He’s 31 and played only 24450 minutes – he played very few in his first few years in the NBA. As for ‘injury prone’ – well he famously had bad knee injury, but otherwise has played 68+ games in each of 3 of the last 4 years, including both the last 2. That hopefully means he’s over the hump.
Yup
Agreed on 4, 7, 8, 9. Get another quality shooting defensive wingman and a center or Sheed returns and C’s can contend again. The Lakers height advantage will be all but elimated if Sheed comes back. Hopefully we can get homecourt this year esp against LA.
Clint Eastwood references are always welcome!
Nice read on a stormy Monday across much of the country, Jeff – even here in NM. (Thanks for your help last night also).
One of my concerns is the change on the bench where thibs was, but there should be some positives there as well…
ESPN reported today that Shaq may be heading to the Hawks, but I have my doubts, he can’t chase a ring there…
It was really hard to tell about KG last season, but he seemed to me to be improving pretty continuously after the setback at the beginning of January. I predict he bounces back this season!
Also, I’d like to see Luke make the team – too many positives there to pass up!
by nba is the worst on Jul 26, 2010 10:07 AM EDT reply actions
Danny is doing a good job
The best option was not to blow it up and start over because you couldn’t with Garnett’s two years left and Pierce’s one. So re-load with Doc, Ray and others was the best BIG CHOICE
As far as SMALL CHOICES, well as Rumsfeld used to say “There are the knowns, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns”.
The unknown unknowns are future injuries or the age related slippage and every team has them and we have more because of our age but that was accepted with the BIG CHOICE. So stop worrying about it.
As far as the known unknowns, we know Tony Allen is gone and didn’t want that to happen, we know we have some young guys (Bradley, Harangody, Gaffney, Lafayetter, Erdin) but we don’t know if any or all can cut it, we know Danny made a pretty good deal with Rasheed if he retires but we don’t know what Danny’s going to do with it, we know Daniels was a good player two years ago and is in his prime but we don’t know what to expect from him. We know Perk is gone for half a year anyway but don’t know how he bounces back.
As far as the knowns, Doc as a coach, Big Baby, Nate and Rondo should all continue to get better, Ray will hit his free throws, the team will never quit, and my money is in already for next year’s seats.
If Shaq joins the team
It’ wont be The Good The Bad and The Ugly (although he is ugly)
It will be more like……………
A rotatating old timer cast to play dead on “Weekend at Bernie’s”……
I think Danny is bascially done…..
While I don’t really love what I see on paper for this team, and I don’t like thinking about Nate, or Marquis, or possibly Scal…..I am ready to start the season ….unfortunately it’s only July…….
because we are an old team…..injuries could decimate our team quickly but…………it could also be one heck of a motivated team because they know the window is almost closed……….and watching Haragody and Big Baby might quite fun
best Clint Eastwood movie? ….Outlaw Josey Wales….just sayin
Is it Soup Yet?
Play Misty for Me
Was a scary flick. And, of course, Harry Callahan
bulls bout to get tmac if he gives them 60 games that team will be better than the celtics..lets hope orlando doesnt get cp3 either..what have we done this offseason the only reason we got oneal is because of perks injury our best improvements have been from the draft and doc doesnt play rookies so what have we done
by KyleChristian15 on Jul 26, 2010 10:52 AM EDT reply actions
We're in a good spot.
It’s tough for any fan-base to be excited outside of the LAKERS AND HEAT. We’re one of the 2-3 “other” teams competing. But hell, WE’RE COMPETING. Thanks to Dan and Wyc for giving us a shot to surprise everybody again.
by Benjamin Barak on Jul 26, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
Agree
Coming into this off-season I had my doubts we would be putting much more than 3 of our starting 5 on the floor. We got Ray, JO, Nate, Quis, we may even pick up Shaq. And who knows, Avery may be a stud. I’ll take our chances. Because we DO have a chance.
the bad
rondo on the USA team may wear down late in the season as other players have in the past.
"Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die."
im gonna be all up on you like a spider monkey!
i can just see delonte west winning a game of poker against lebron, throwing down the cards he yells, "who's your daddy!"...."oh, sorry man"
by remembering9ergods on Jul 26, 2010 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
Nah
This is a great experience for Rondo and I have no worries about fatigue. He has a great sense for the flow of the game and he’s young enough to play all summer and through the next year. Having Nate spell him consistently will be huge come next spring. He deserves to represent USA basketball.
by McHaleinthepost on Jul 26, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
i just hope he won't get injuries out there
can’t afford to lose him in the regular season
Nobody mentioned Thibodeau
I hope using his schemes will be enough and his presence is not that much needed like KG playing vs KG on the bench in suit.
He'll probably be missed, but...
I tend to think that coaches get disproportionate amounts of the credit AND the blame. In the end, players execute the offenses and defenses. When they execute correctly, the coaches look like geniuses. when they don’t the coaches look like bums. Not to say that coaches don’t deserve ANY credit (of course, they do), but we fans tend to overestimate their importance.
When Roy Williams congratulated Dean Smith as Smith was winning his first NCAA Championship, Smith told Williams: “I’m no better coach now than I was five minutes ago.”
by Stanford_Fan on Jul 26, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
They won't be too Bad, but it'll take a miracle for them to be Good Enough
Pros:
Nate Rob / Quis backcourt off the bench. They both can play either position which will force matchup confusion, and I like that Nate Robinson now has a bigger role by default with TA leaving (although he’ll be missed)
Baby & JO will both be solid bench contributors.
Danny could potentially parlay Sheed’s contract into a decent player; and when Sheed is bought out, we could still get him back in green for the playoffs.
Cons:
Perk will be a shadow of himself most of the year, and even with Sheed we won’t have enough rebounding.
If Shaq is the best C we can add, were in trouble. He can’t defend the p/r, has lost the quickness to rotate on D, can’t shoot from outside 5 feet, and while on the floor with Rondo we become the worst FT shooting team of all time.
We seem to be counting on Bradley and Harangody for meaningful production. These two are rookies, right??
We haven’t addressed how to solve the extended dry stretches we were prone to offensively. This, imo, more than any other factor was why we lose a game 7 in LA. Just didn’t have enough left in the tank to execute offensively when it counted.
A little negative for my taste, but the reality is that it’s kind of a longshot for us to get back to the Finals in 2011.
IF we are to do so, it’ll HAVE to be on the shoulders of a 1st team All-NBA effort from Rondo. He’ll have to be able to hit 75% of his FT’s though, and I’m not sure he’s disciplined enough to make that happen…
Good post
I don’t want Shaq—he is far too limited at this point.
Can Rondo carry a team? Yeah, I think he’ll show this year that he can. Just like Bird, Rondo has shown that he can alter games and beat teams in so many different ways—rebounding, assists, steals, etc. He will score more this year but he’ll continue to dominate games through the other departments.
Assuming reasonable health (a BIG if, of course—esp. w/re: to Perk) we’re in for a deep run come next spring, and as a fan that’s all you can ask for.
by McHaleinthepost on Jul 26, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Shaq is pretty inadequate against the pick and roll. But...
… Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and for that matter Jamaal Magloire don’t play a lot of pick and roll basketball. If the Magic, Lakers, and the Heat play someone who does, then we’ll mostly play Jermaine O’Neal. It could work out.
the will to win is stronger than ever....
i’m done with too much pessimism and putting this team down.
regardless of whatever everybody says, i have a stronger faith
in this team to achieve their goal, banner 18!
old, banged, bruised, whatever….this team showed us last year
what guts & courage they have.
the basic truths in life: you work hard to achieve your goals, strong faith,
the rewards will come.
by Vince_frmthePhils on Jul 26, 2010 9:22 PM EDT reply actions
they did it last year, they worked hard from being a 4th seed
but they were not able to finish. the rewards didn’t come.
The Celtics were not supposed to get out of the 2nd round, according to just about everyone
but there they were in the end, Eastern Conference Champions!!!
Sure, a banner did not go up in the Garden, but that is because the team’s standards there are championship or nothing. The team did get a ECF banner and I am sure it is hung somewhere.
I am proud of their accomplishments and refuse to hang my head for anyone.
by GetYourSoxOn on Jul 27, 2010 7:03 AM EDT up reply actions
the mind is strong but the body is weak
we must not forget that saying, which applies very well to the big3.
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