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Celtics NBA Preview (2010-11 Season)

Motivation: An image speaks 1,000 words.

Team Name: Boston Celtics

Last Year's Record: 50 - 32
Key Losses: Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace
Key Additions: Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, Von Wafer

1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?

Imagine if you were the GM of the New Jersey Nets or some other team with gobs of cap room and only a few players (say a young point guard and center) locked in.  Say you went out and signed Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Nate Robinson, and Marquis Daniels and you got them all for relatively short years and fairly cap friendly deals.  You're doing cartwheels right?  Fantastic, A+ summer haul.

Well, that's just the guys that the Celtics re-signed.  Toss in Jermaine O'Neal, Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West, and Von Wafer and you are talking about an exceptional offseason.  Especially when you consider the only realistic alternative would have been to detonate the whole thing by letting Ray Allen walk and shopping Kevin Garnett around to anyone who would take him.  Rebuilding can wait.  I'll take another shot or two at banner 18.

Star-divide

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

Defense, defense, defense.  Granted, the team lost their defensive guru in Tom Thibodeau and they will be missing Kendrick Perkins for half a year (at least), and of course everyone on the team got a year older.  Oh yeah, and we added the world's worst pick and roll defender who happens to be 38.  But with all that said, the team is going to be better defensibly than about 85 to 90 percent of the league.

Continuity helps.  These guys know each other and they bought into the system long ago.  In fact, as Nate found out, unless you buy into the system, you don't play.  Simple as that.

A mostly healthy Kevin Garnett should help matters even more (knock on wood).  Jermaine O'Neal won't be too much of a drop off from Perkins and Rondo has become one of the best defending guards in the league.  Ray is surprisingly good at what he does and Paul Pierce really doesn't get enough credit for the work he does on that side of the ball.  Overall, this team is still capable of locking down an opponent for long stretches and mostly taking away the other team's strengths.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Offense, offense, offense.  You wouldn't think that a team with so many All Stars and future Hall of Famers would struggle on offense.  But that's what killed them down the stretch last year.  The Celtics advanced in the playoffs despite coming up short in several 4th quarters and it ultimately caught up to them in the Finals.  Great defense still wins championships, but if the other team happens to be playing great defense as well, then eventually someone has to score the ball.

The Celtics added the O'Neal boys, Delonte, and brought back Nate Robinson.  So the 2nd unit will have a great deal more scoring punch than it did a year ago.  If we can keep the starting unit mostly healthy, that will help a great deal as well.  As they get older, however, I think you'll see a lot more inconsistency from these guys on the offensive side of the ball.  Paul can't carry the team for months at a time like he once could.  Ray Allen is getting very streaky.  Garnett was never aggressive with his offense to begin with.  Rondo will likely take another step forward to try to mitigate some of this, but he can only do so much.

4. What are the goals for this team?

What was the goal last year and the 2 years before that?  Nothing but a championship will be considered a true success.  The odds are getting longer and the competition is getting better, but the goal remains the same.

5. Will this team coast and flip the switch again?

Did the team coast last year?  The official excuse for their poor regular season was that they had so many injuries that it was difficult to get any kind of groove going even when they had a mostly healthy lineup.  But I don't really buy it.  I think they spent so much time worrying about limiting minutes and easing guys back from injuries that they mentally took the foot off the gas for long stretches at a time last year.  With the Finals being the only true goal, the shorter term goals (like winning games in the regular season) just didn't matter that much.

When the playoffs rolled around, they flipped the proverbial switch, focused on defense, and took people a little by surprise with their Finals run (running over Wade, LeBron, and Dwight in the process).

Will they try to do it again?  I hope not.  I don't think they can pull it off again.  But what do I know?  I was preaching all along last season that they wouldn't be able to turn it on and they proved me wrong (before running out of gas at the end).  Give credit to Doc Rivers for always believing in his team (at least publicly) and standing behind them during the bleakest of times.

Looking ahead to this year, I think home court will be important in the playoffs and I think getting everyone on the same page during the regular season is going to be even more critical this year.  On the other hand, I also think we'll see another year of frustrating injuries that take our top players out for long stretches at a time.

So I think they'll do better than the 50 wins from last year but I don't think they're going to be lucky enough to get to 60 wins.  So my prediction splits the difference at 55 wins.

Predicted Record: 55 - 27

More Previews: SBN Boston | Red's Army | Celtics Life | Celtics 24/7 | Gino's Jungle | Celtics Town | Celtics Hub (more coming)

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Nice Job Jeff

Another weakness I’d add is that there was no improvement in team speed. Can some of the guys run? Yeah, but overall we are not maximizing Rondo.

Improvements certainly are that passes down low will result in a score, as opposed to Perk winding up and getting his shot blocked.

by amenhotep04 on Sep 13, 2010 7:06 AM EDT reply actions  

good point

Low post scoring with Oneal and Shaq will be GREATLY improved. This leads for MORE looks for Ray. Not a bad thing and really what makes our offense work in the first place (inside/outside).

by Benjamin Barak on Sep 13, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Team Speed is Over Rated

What is team speed? Is it speed from baseline to baseline? Or are we talking about fast break basketball. Fast break basketball really doesn’t take blazing speed to play. I started watch the Celtics in 1956, and except for a few years, they were always a running team. Don Nelson, Frank Ramsy, Tommy H, Larry Seigfried, Paul Silas, Bailey Howell, Larry Bird, Kevin M, DJ, PP, BBD, Perk and the list goes on, are not fast. But running is running. Anyone pro basketball player can run. It’s a mind set. If you are a running team, then you run. If not you walk the ball up. It’s as simple as that.

by badax33 on Sep 14, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

nice write up

C’s improved their depth but will it be enough to keep Ray and PP fresh for another deep playoff run. I think part of Ray’s ineffectiveness in the finals was due to that knee he took but that doesn’t explain the missed layups. I think we’re going to see Ray become less effective this year and I’m not sure West and Wafer will be enough to make up the difference.

I think they’re going to coast again this year after the holidays—not as much as last year but they’ll lose games to teams they have no business losing to. Last year’s efforts have made me very hesitant to buy tickets for this season. After being there for both the Nets and Wizards games, I can’t see putting out more money for that kind of effort.

by slamtheking on Sep 13, 2010 7:21 AM EDT reply actions  

yep - nice writeup...nice Monday morning article with coffee

My two main concerns

Injuries (long lasting ones) or mutliple short term injuries that never allow the team to “gel”

Exhaustion …..finding the right balance to take a team deep into the playoffs without the old legs giving out……Doc has to balance winning the regular season games for position in the playoffs and coming in to the playoffs with relatively fresh horses.

Playoff position means nothing if you are out of gas and beatup when you get there.

Again, nice article
 

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Sep 13, 2010 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Just when it looked like the C's championship window was closing after last season....

Danny had a great off season and kicked that window wide open for another season or two.

If no injuries occur or chemistry issues arise the 2011 Celtic team will have a great shot at obtaining title 18.

The recipe for a banner is all their again as they have a great coach, a team of players with talent, playoff experience a great deal of depth.

I think motivation will be a big key this year how far the team goes.

I believe the big 3 – Rondo Perk and Baby, know this will really be the final window to win a banner together and that they are not happy with just the 1 title they won in 08 and that they want another badly.

I also assume Shaq is big time hungry for a title …especially if he can beat LA for it and that Jermaine after all these years in the NBA also wants one desperately also.

Same probably goes for Nate and Delonte.

It should be a very interesting season…I can hardly wait for it to start.

by fordescort on Sep 13, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Have to agree.

Everyone is talking about the big 3 in Miami, but come on. We’re turning into the Big 6.

by Benjamin Barak on Sep 13, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good comment.

After last season’s surprising post-season run, I have to admit that I thought it might have been the last with this core group, but then Danny went out and had the kind of off-season he did (just remarkable with what he had to work with). Really looking forward to this season. I think he’s brought in enough to beat the Lakers. My bigger concern would be getting by the Heat now.

doubleplusungoodthinker

by Mencius on Sep 14, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think rondo has to average around 18 & 10 for us to get a top 2 seed

rondo is guna have 2 be the start this season but what he has is ALOT of very good role players
kg,ray,PP,shaq,J.O.,nate.big baby,wafer,west,perk when he comes back

hopefully we get to the line more as well we need easy points as much as we can get em this season

by stylo617617 on Sep 13, 2010 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Hadn't looked at it that way

When listed as ‘key additions’ and ‘key losses’, it is a very successful offseason.

In the end, it is all about the how well KG, Pierce and Ray age.

by guava_wrench on Sep 13, 2010 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

i just dont wanna become what the spurs has become ya know

its sad to see them still trying to win a title when they have no one that can give them 20 points no matter what yes that includes ginobli who’s going to carry us on offence ,i kno doc usually runs set plays but all in all KG has to go back to attacking the basket and posting up for his dreak shake and rondo has to become a beter free throw shooter

by stylo617617 on Sep 13, 2010 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Hm… been a while since KG routinely posted up. More chacne of Rajon hitting his gimmies! Anyway, they are in the hunt.

by Tenacious D on Sep 13, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only problem I have with this piece, Jeff....

is the last line in section one. While it is obvious that you have to get 18 before you get 19, I may have said; “I’ll take another shot at banners 18 and 19.”

We’ve had real bad injury luck the past two years. We could have been looking to 4peat and #20, but luck and the timeliness of injuries plays such a big part in sports.

by csfansince60s on Sep 13, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Best game face in, well, the game

If Rondo could be an 80% free throw shooter and had a semi-consistent mid-range J, he would be in the top ten players in the NBA. He has the best game face of anybody and I just love his mentality. He’s got a PG mind and backs down to no one.

by thereallargejames on Sep 13, 2010 3:04 PM EDT reply actions  

58-24

I expect a 58-24 record.

First off I just don’t see injuries taking their toll on this team like they did last year. With a bench of guards like Delonte, Wafer, and Marquis, there’s no reason not to win games against middle-level NBA teams consistently WHILE also reducing Paul and Ray’s minutes. So many games last year were lost due to the underperformance of the bench. This is what eventually also led to injuries, and the onward and downward spiral of apathy and chemistry-related problems.

Three more important points. Rondo now has a true backup…for the entire year. I think people are underestimating (or just forgetting) how big of a deal it is that Rondo himself gets rest. Everyone here can agree on one thing I think. When Rondo plays aggressive, this team almost NEVER loses…literally almost 100% of the time. Well, one way to guarantee that Rondo plays aggressively for larger portions of games, and for more games in general is to keep him rested. Having Nate as his backup for the full year will allow us to rest Rondo AND keep consistent offense.

KG is back…we thought he’d never be. He’ll be better than he was at any point during last year, bar none. That’s pretty easy to say. If that’s the case, then fantastic.

Finally, in addition to having KG back to form somewhat, the acquisition of two incredibly talented rebounders in the O’neals will do much to eliminate losses against teams like the Hawks. How many games did this team lose last year due to lack of rebounding alone? Too many to even count…at least 4 to the Hawks alone.

Due to all of the above, I think the Celtics will win a significantly larger amount of games than last year. I expect a 58-24 record…and dare I predict it, a 2 game standing lead over the Lakers by the end of the regular season…56-26 for them. Honestly, THAT is all I care about…homecourt advantage against the only team in the league that TRULY knows how to use it. Orlando and Miami…pshss…no fear playing in their backyard. LA? Yes.

Listen to the fire and angst in these guys’ comments. They’re mad and frustrated, and ready. Expect good things.

Ashtray Bouquet

by ducksawce on Sep 13, 2010 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

jeez, i wish you hadn't said this:

“First off I just don’t see injuries taking their toll on this team like they did last year.”

by Cousin It on Sep 13, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

you know i'm not like that, haha!

Ewww to Simmons the Clippers fan.

Let me clarify the whole “injury” thing. There’s no doubt that injuries will happen this year. The question is, how will they affect the win percentage, and how will they affect the injured players down the line (i.e March and onwards)?

Paul Pierce basically screwed himself up for 3 straight months after his knee draining, by repeatedly trying to come back early, and also by demanding the ball when he was clearly halfway crippled. The team however, did a good job of limiting KG after his injury (and in general all year).

Here’s the key: last year the bench couldn’t pick up the slack. With Paul and KG out, there goes much of the team’s rebounding. This year, there’s capable backups…ones who can not only score proficiently, but also offer rebounding strength. This year, despite inevitable injuries, the veterans won’t be rushed back…the rebounding also won’t suffer. Most importantly of all, there’ll be continuity throughout the team, especially amongst the bench players who will fill in starting roles occasionally.

Ashtray Bouquet

by ducksawce on Sep 13, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Part of the reason the bench couldn't pick up the slack

was that two of the key pieces of the bench were also injured for extended periods (Daniels and Davis). Davis took a couple of months to get his game up to snuff and Daniels never really seemed to recover his.

The other reason was that we simply had no outside shooting off the bench to speak of.

by mmmmm on Sep 14, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good point about the rebounds

I’d list rebounding as our biggest weakness last year.

doubleplusungoodthinker

by Mencius on Sep 14, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Zebras: the X factor

The lurking question is whether or not the zebras will lie down for Bron-Wade. If they call touch fouls all the way, Stern gets his media/market fantasy finals (hisss). Let ‘em play, then C’s experience, front court depth, D, PG play trumps the fabricated 3.

by Tenacious D on Sep 13, 2010 8:32 PM EDT reply actions  

C's experience should help...

but I don’t know that there’s a team out there that the NBA wants in the finals much more than the Celtics. Frankly, ratings-wise, I think the NBA can’t go wrong with either the Celtics or Heat, so long as the Western Conference Champion is coming from Los Angeles (and I don’t mean the Clippers).

So if there’s a complaint about the refs, I think it would be in the OTHER conference, where there’s a huge drop-off, ratings-wise, between the Lakers and the next best alternative. Stern and the network “suits” will be rooting for the Lakers to be in the finals (note that I am not saying that there’s fix going on, but you’d have to be blind and/or stupid not to acknowledge how much better the Lakers will be for the ratings than any other Western Conference team).

by Stanford_Fan on Sep 14, 2010 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

All about health

Skill is there, depth is there, attitude will be about winning not about ME, coaching not a weakness. All about health. You will even see promise in Bradley, Harangody and maybe Gaffney. (I’m skeptical on Wafer). And Erden did not look like a stiff against NBA ballers.

by Wildblu1 on Sep 13, 2010 9:36 PM EDT reply actions  

This is going to be the year!

With so many additions that have been made and with the core intact, the celtics have a legitimate shot at winning it all. This is the year that the celts will be filling in that blank banner at Waltham!!!

by Doublespy on Sep 13, 2010 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

good write up. losing thibs was big but lawrence frank was a good pickup. losing clifford will hurt. baby is another key guy- no lateral progress- he has to move up a notch or two.. someone has to be an adequate sub for pp. and doc has to be in it.

by nazzbo on Sep 13, 2010 10:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I like the breakdown, Jeff, but...

… Lawrence Frank doesn’t even get his name mentioned?

by jyrecelts on Sep 13, 2010 11:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice breakdown. I’ll take a 55-27 record to end the regular season.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Sep 14, 2010 8:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Good write up, Jeff.

Two comments:

Offense – I totally agree that it WAS a weakness. I disagree that this IS a weakness. This year’s team should be much better on offense than last year for the following reasons.

1) KG’s knee should be stronger – that had virtually no real impact on his defense (which remained elite), but he was missing his fadeaway jumper much of the year, which comes from the knees. I expect KG will be more effective on offense again.

2) While it is possible that Pierce and Ray will slip a little (Pierce set personal highs for shooting percentage and while Ray slipped a little in 3PT%, was above his career averages in every other shooting category), any slip in offensive production there should be compensated by

3) J’Oneal, while perhaps not quite as effective a post defender as Perkins, is nevertheless a much better offensive threat and

4) Rajon Rondo should continue to show improvement offensively.

5) Beyond the starting 5, most importantly, our bench should be MUCH MUCH better offensively than last year’s bench. Shaq, BBD, Daniels, Wafer/West & Nate —→ that is a very good offensive unit, with all the tools you need to have in order to spread defenses and attack the hoop.

Coasting – I’m sorry, I just don’t by the idea that the players ‘coasted’ or ‘paced themselves’ last year in order to ‘turn the switch on’ for the playoffs. I just don’t think it is in the DNA of KG, Pierce or Allen to be accepting of any loss.

In games where all three of KG, Pierce and Allen were healthy, our won-lost percentage was right up their with the elite teams of the NBA. With any of them out, our record was lame.

This tells me that the problem wasn’t ‘coasting’. It was a weak bench.

Lets face it – our bench was missing 3 significant contributors for loong stretches (BBD, Daniels and Tony). Of those guys, BBD took a while to get his game back and Daniels never seemed fully back in the swing ever. Further, our bench had no offensive balance. For the longest time, Eddie and then Nate were the only 3PT shooter off the bench until we added Finley. You can’t stretch a defense with just one outside shooter and a bunch of slashers. The result was, unless we kept Ray on the floor, most of the time the 2nd unit could not stretch the floor, period. Another problem with our bench was that while Rasheed Wallace was effective backing up Perk at the C and even playing against 2nd unit PFs off the bench, when KG was out, we expected Sheed to play the PF position as a starter, which put him against younger, more athletic PFs. That was what I like to call “Black January” of last year. Ugh. I loved ’Sheed overall, but that was not good.

And we had a lot of dead weight on the bench that, for good reason, the Celtics had zero hesitation in getting rid of.

So I guess I’m saying that our regular season record wasn’t so much a sign of ‘coasting’ as maybe it was simply a fair measure of just how good this team was as a regular season team, overall. We just didn’t have overall team depth to do any better. The difference with the playoffs was simply that our starters and our bench were all healthy up until we lost Perk – and we all know how that hurt.

I’d say Danny put a heavy emphasis this year on building up a much better bench than last year.

by mmmmm on Sep 14, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

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