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Attacking the Celtics: Enemy Thoughts

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 17:  Paul Pierce #34 of the Boston Celtics stands on the court in the first half against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game Seven of the 2010 NBA Finals at Staples Center on June 17, 2010 in Los Angeles, California.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Here are some thoughts on this year’s Celtics. They are enhanced by some observations by another NBA team’s (anonymous) official. I wanted to see how other teams viewed the Celtics offense and certain players. Remember this is primarily looking at how other teams see weak spots to exploit in our Men in Green.

Initially, I was going to do separate articles built around each observation. But free time has been rare for me and the new season kicks off today with Media Day. So it might be good timing to just lay the comments out there with a comment or two of my own. You guys can take it from there.

There are a few interesting observations and a number of others that really reinforce what is already established. What frequently comes out is that the concept of ‘spacing’ at both ends of the floor is paramount on coaches' minds.

First – The Celtic offense generally. The team official’s comments are first and in italics.

Scout: As is well known, you make the other team’s poorer shooters beat you so we let Rondo have that jump shot and sag the middle.

Ok. No news flash there. Call it Rondo’s burden. Though it hasn’t always shown up in the stats, we have seen improvement in Rondo’s jumper each year. And he has shown a knack for making some big ones at the end of a shot clock.

More on Rondo –

Star-divide

The thing is to keep Rondo out of the paint where he causes real damage. Because he still doesn’t hit free throws well and to make him think twice about going in, some hard fouls are the way to go. A few hard fouls can sometimes make him more reluctant to drive.

Again, I don’t know that this news, but it reinforces current perceptions. If Rondo starts to hit free throws even in the 70% range, that strategy might have to change. In the meantime, when you see Rondo hit the deck on a drive, you will know why. Those hard ones on Rondo aren’t accidental.

Paul Pierce

Paul Pierce is still the toughest Celtic to defend and their most dangerous scorer. It is no secret why they go to Paul at crucial times. He flies below the radar, but I see him not too far below Kobe as a clutch scorer. His game has dropped off a bit, but he is still one of the best in the game when you need clutch scoring.

Sometimes we forget that Paul is still a triple threat when he has the ball in his hands. He can drive, fake in and step back and hit the mid range, or hit from the arc. And he can still draw fouls fairly well. I will say that I don’t think that he gets the foul calls that he used to, especially on drives.

I think he will have to return to rebounding more this season. And those end of quarter freelance iso’s should involve other players more as he did at times with KG running successful pick and pops.

If he gets others involved a bit more, it accomplishes the other team’s goal by getting the ball out of his hands. But it will help other Celtics learn to take and hit clutch shots and make Pierce and the Celtics harder to defend as the season goes on. One player that might work with is Nate Robinson, who has finished quarters for Doc before. Can he be turned into a secondary clutch shooter at the end of quarters?

While others have noticed that the ball sometimes sticks to Paul’s hands too much, I also notice that he often tries to get the ball to Perkins or Davis underneath.

Ray Allen

He is the one player you remind your players to never, ever leave alone. You don’t help off Ray Allen. Let someone else help out. Leaving Ray is a cardinal sin. (paraphrase) That is why just having Ray on the floor is so helpful for the Celtics. If he isn’t hitting the three, he can find other ways to score.

If Miami ever got him that would have helped them a lot.


There is the concept of spacing again and its importance to creating effective offense. It explains why having Ray on the floor, even if he is not hitting, still has a positive effect on the 5 man group. That is why he was used with the second unit so often.   

Ray is still in great shape, has avoided major injury, and played in 73, 79, and 80 games as a Celtic. There is no reason why he can’t do it again. Of course, I hope I didn’t just jinx him.

Shaquille o’Neal –

He will help with size and rebounding for the Celtics, which was a weak point last season. But I will say….we liked seeing Shaq on the court.

And that is what some are worried about. Shaq used to cause happiness for the opposing team when he went to the bench. Not he does the same when he enters the game. Unless you have been living on the moon for the summer, even my dead grandmother, who knew nothing about basketball when she was alive, now knows that Shaq can’t defend the pick and roll. But then our scout added….

But with Shaq coming off the bench and playing against second string centers, he should eat them up. Second line big men for most teams aren’t very good and I can see him having a field day against them. This should be a productive fit both the Celtics and Shaq.

Jermaine O’Neal –


 Jermaine should be healthier than he has been in some time. If he is, he could be the surprise pick-up for the Celtics this off season. I think he may surprise everyone with a better game than you think he has at this point.

That would be nice. Seeing as how he is still relatively young and at one time had a formidable game, it would make it worth Danny spending the whole MLE on him. Jermaine has been talking about the Celtic team spirit and lack of egos on the Celtics as to why he came here.

That is a good sign and he can be a long, tough defender in the middle while hitting a reliable mid range jumper at the other end. Possibly related to his injuries, Jermaine has disappointed at his previous two stops. Like Shaq, this may be the right place for him.

Glen Davis
In addition to the quote that opened yesterday’s Glen Davis article, our scout added this…

Glen is not a main focus in planning against the Celtics. He is like.... the 5 or 6th guy talked about. You just want to contain his energy and don’t let him get going and get the crowd into it.

Back to the Celtics offense generally…

The starting five isn’t the problem. They don’t need to change much. It is the bench they need more from.


Celtics Need a Stretch Four?


And one last comment that caught me a bit by surprise…

The Celtics don’t really have a stretch 4 (power forward). They are missing a player like that. They could use one. Garnett’s a jump shooter but his range seems a little shorter now and Davis isn’t one. Rasheed Wallace was supposed to be that guy last season, but that didn’t really work out.

Hmmm…With KG’s 15-18 foot jumper almost automatic (when he is healthy), I never really thought about that. You might say the Brian Scalabrine was ours, but he didn’t play much.

That makes me start wondering if the Celtics do need that and who might that player be?

The Cs drafted Luke Harangody. He fits that profile. Glen Davis could learn to shoot from the arc as well, I guess. KG is NOT stepping behind the line.

Players from other teams that come to mind, that might be available at some point this season– Charlie Villanueva, Troy Murphy, Matt Bonner, Yi Jianlian, Tayshaun Prince, Marvin Williams, Andres Nocioni.

The bigger question is do the Celtics see it that way? It is an interesting thought in any event.

So that ends some quick takes from ‘enemy lines’ with a few follow up thoughts. Each could initiate an article by itself. The thoughts on Pierce, the O'Neals and the 'stretch four' comment I found the most interesting. Your own thoughts?

Training camp begins today and Doc will start to piece together the 2010-11 Celtic strategy to attain another NBA title. I even like the sound of that.

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Glen Davis is a stretch 4. His mid-range jumper can be just as automatic as Garnett’s. However, the Celtics haven’t used him in this capacity for a while. It will be interesting to see whether we’ll reintroduce the pick-and-pop with him again, now that Rasheed is no longer available.

by kozlodoev on Sep 27, 2010 7:29 AM EDT reply actions  

automatic?

I don’t remember BBD’s jumper ever being automatic. certainly not like KG’s used to be.

I’d like to see BBD get back to using it and get to the point where he can hit it consistantly enough to bring his defender out with him. That would certainly help.

I think Luke has that ability and could develop into that player for the C’s by next year. (barring massive numbers of injuries to the frontcourt, I don’t think Luke sees a minute of meaningful playing time this year).

by slamtheking on Sep 27, 2010 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Then you remember incorrectly.

In his last 3 seasons with the Celtics, Garnett shot 76-158 (.481), 41-113 (.363), and 50-226 (.431) from the elbow, or an overall 0.432.

During the same period of time, Davis shot 7-14 (.500), 32-73 (.438), and 9-20 (.450), or an overall .449.

Sure, Davis’ sample is much smaller, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a competent shooter, and arguably as good as Garnett for stretching defenses when spotting up at the right location.

by kozlodoev on Sep 27, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree. Davis’ small sample in 2 of those years doesn’t present a reliable sample to base an opinion on. not one I’d find reliable although you may choose to set your own standard on that.

In my reference to KG’s effectiveness, I was referring to his shot from 2008. His shooting in the last 2 years was definitely not at that level. I could have been clearer on that point but having said that, it doesn’t change the fact that when viewing a fair sized sample of BBD’s shooting such as in 2009, it’s not consistent or reliable. I think he could get to that point but I wouldn’t consider him at that level based on prior performance.

by slamtheking on Sep 28, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

kozlodoev....

I think he is viewing a ‘stretch four’ by a tighter standard, meaning someone who can step behind the arc and make three pointers – like a Rashard Lewis or Troy Murphy type. It takes that defender completely out of any other option.

Davis can draw defenders out, but obviously not as far. And I love Davis, but even I wouldn’t say his jumper is as consistent as Garnett’s. KG has a ridiculously good 16-18 footer.

But to your point…I think (I hope) Glen will be able to add the pick and pop back in this season.

Thanks koz

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

If we apply your definition, yes, the only “stretch 4” we have is Harangody, who may or may not be good enough to warrant extended minutes.

As for whose jumper is more reliable, my impression was that Davis was at least as good as Garnett when the Cs ran plays for him to pop up at the left/right elbow, or the left baseline. The shooting percentages tend to support this story.

by kozlodoev on Sep 27, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, and thanks for the story — great stuff as usual.

by kozlodoev on Sep 27, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with what Koslodoev has said - BBD's jumper is legitimate - but acknowledge your distinction

I would add, though, that the way the Celtics half-court offense works, they don’t really depend on a 4 to stretch, ala “Rashard Lewis”. They rely on Ray and Paul for that. As long as both Ray and Paul are on the floor, two guys at a minimum can NOT camp with a foot in the paint.

Testament to the effectiveness there was the offensive efficiency of the starting 5-man unit. So I disagree that the starting 5 needed a ‘stretch 4’ at all. It just wasn’t part of the Celtic’s offense.

Regarding ‘what Rasheed was supposed to be’ – he was NOT here to be a ‘stretch 4’. The problem last year was that on the second team, we didn’t have two 3 pointers on the floor when Paul and Ray went to the bench. Eddie (and then Nate) was the only bench shooter. So we kept popping Sheed out to help provide spacing. That wasn’t what we wanted Rasheed to do – it was simply necessary because you need 2 3PT shooters in order to keep more than 3 from sagging into the paint. Once we picked up Finley, that helped the second team spacing, and from that point on you saw Sheed take half as many 3PT shots.

This year, we already have several shooters lined up for the bench that should provide much better spacing for the second team. Nate, Wafer, West, Harangody & Bradley all can shoot the 3PT shot and at least 4 of those guys should be on the roster and 3 should be dressed for every game. The bench should be able to post a legitimately balanced 5 man unit that always has at least two 3PT shooters.

This will allow Doc to actually sit Ray more than he did last year.

by mmmmm on Sep 27, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would say that...

stats don’t tell the whole story on KG and Davis jump shots. KG was usually shooting over someone. Davis rarely was. There is a big difference or distinction.

And Doc wanted Sheed shooting threes early in the year. But it got a little out of hand.

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

interesting take on things

interesting to hear an outsider’s take on the team.

The stretch 4 idea was a new spin on things.

Also, it’s interesting to see others still consider Ray a major threat. I would have thought his vanishing act in the playoffs and his inconsistancy during the season would give other teams thoughts of straying from him when he’s having an off night.

Surprised no mention of the rest of the bench besides Shaq and BBD. I would think that having a full season of Nate, West returning, Daniels healthy and adding Wafer (as well as a couple of rookies that by all accounts can shoot and either defend—Bradley— or rebound—Luke) would have given scouts a reason to think the C’s have a bench that will contribute this year.

by slamtheking on Sep 27, 2010 7:39 AM EDT reply actions  

new spin is probably wrong

I disagree that we need a long range 4

what we need is rebounding, rebounding, and some more rebounding

what is Paul Silas up to these days?

A healthy, motivated Glen Davis will help, I think. I worry about KG. Has looked like the Tin Man most of the time for the last two years.

I hope Shaq will help, but I don’t know.

Only an earthquake will get any rookies into the game

by Frank Malzone on Sep 27, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Concur that we dont need a long range 4

Disagree with the implication that we have had a rebounding problem – though more rebounding is always a good thing.

by mmmmm on Sep 27, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know you guys hate when I mention Summer League but as far as our next stretch 4 “we got him”
Luke Harangody, I know Doc is not fond of playing rookies but what luke did in summer league is look like a 1st rounder! He played with the likes of Paul George, Evan Turner, and teams like the thunder. and he looked great going against guys that were 6’11 and that got drafted way b4 him. And if i remember he shot the 3 ball at 42%, and his rebounding was also very good. You may call him just another hybrid SF/PF, but try to remember one who was a great 3 point, mid range shooter and a good rebounder!

by businessbmw on Sep 27, 2010 8:29 AM EDT reply actions  

bizbmw....

I thought of Luke afterward myself. I am taking a more cautious wait and see approach with Harangody. Summer league is still summer league, IMO.

But I acknowledge the high hopes of some including yourself and he did look good this summer. If he shows he can consistently hit that 3 during real games and play passable defense, it could be very intriguing.

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree 100%

And when people realize that Harangody is also the answer at backup 3, they’ll see that he’s going to be very difficult to keep off the court.

I agree with everything the secret person said.

I also think that if either Perk or Baby want to get offensive touches, they should go get some offensive rebounds; I wouldn’t give them a “turn” on offense, and agree that PP shouldn’t give up shots that he is far more likely to make than Perk or Baby are to make theirs.

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Sep 27, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

The overlooked man

The enemies are scouting Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Shaq, Jermaine, and Baby. And the only thought they have about Garnett is an oblique mention that he doesn’t quite have enough range to be a stretch 4. Um.

I’ve noticed this a lot lately. That Garnett is almost an afterthought on the Celtics radar. All I can say is, I hope the enemies continue to overlook him all the way to #18.

by drza44 on Sep 27, 2010 8:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Funny

It is surprising that KG was not mentioned. It seems to me that KG is perhaps the most important player on the team. If we are a defensive team first, that is KGs forte. Yes Perk provides the muscle, but it’s KG that brings that the intensity and the ability to switch and rotate and block shots. I think KG is really the key to this season, if he’s really back to full strength which he wasn’t last year. He played better in the playoffs, but he looked tired at the same time. Rehabing and basketball conditioning are 2 different things. When you have to spend time to rehab, that’s time and energy you don’t have for conditioning.

As for his offense, I agree he’s not very assertive (and never has been) but his jumper from 15-18 feet is very, very consistent. He’s definitely not a stretch 4 as he’s not a consistent 3 pt shooter and I don’t believe he ever will be. He also has a good post up game with the fade away to both shoulders and some decent post moves, up and unders, finger rolls and when healthy dunks.

I think if KG is really, really healthy this year we WILL win banner 18.

by badax33 on Sep 27, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, KG is by far the most important guy on the team.

The W-L record this last year with and without KG was very telling …

He also again led the C’s in Net48 +/- (when he was on the floor, the C’s were most efficient at outscoring their opponents).

This last year, coming off the injury (and then getting re-injured) his offense suffered – primarily because he took fewer shots.

But his defensive stats were still among the elite of the league.

I suspect that if his leg is stronger, and he feels more explosive, he’ll be more aggressive about taking shots and his offense will bounce back. Though in this offense, he’ll always trail Pierce in utilization.

by mmmmm on Sep 27, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

slamtheking...

you only get limited time to talk with these guys. You cover what you can with them and move to a new subject, especially if you want to go back to them later on in the season.

This conversation was had a bit earlier this summer and I didn’t get too deep into the bench. It’s not like I can say I’m with the New York Times, ESPN, or Sports Illustrated and get special attention.

Also I wanted to discuss the Celtic offense at that time, so we didn’t go into attacking the Celtic defense at all.

I am encouraged by our bench this season, too. They could be very good.

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 8:33 AM EDT reply actions  

thanks

thanks for the info. I wasn’t complaining by any means. It was good to get the extra insight.

by slamtheking on Sep 27, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

drza44...

It might be unfair and would be inaccurate to presume that. The scout largely answered questions I put to him about players I was interested in hearing his opinion about.

Make no mistake – KG is in the top 3 players discussed by opponents for any game planning.

But I agree, few are mentioning Garnett this off season – more of a media thing. If it helps any – I said KG is the single biggest factor to watch this season in my own Celtic preview. So I agree.

I have to get to work now – so enjoy the day all!

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 8:46 AM EDT reply actions  

I also do believe that KG is the biggest factor to watch this upcoming season.

Will he come back healthy? What version of KG will we see this season? 100%? 80%? Will he still be a threat on offense? Will he lose a step on defense?

There are so many questions (at least, my questions), and those will be answered once the season rolls.

"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot." - Bill Russell

by Marjun Raposon on Sep 27, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dittos

Nice job.

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Sep 27, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

5 thoughts on this article

5.) It was interesting article like clover said….nice twist on how to present it – thanks

4.) PP ISO was up a bit last year it seemed from the prior year, but he is still a tremedously hardworking defender, he shares the ball well early inthe game. he picks his spots better to to try and take over later, nothing but love for PP and Ray Alllen ….both are tremendous to have on this team

3.) Jermain O’Neal having a good conisistent seasons will be a quite a boost – that would be very nice.

2. ) No real mention of KG by the opPOsition ? strange

1.) Tom it’s media day!! – tell them all Po said hello… I am certain they all know me ….. ;-)

Is it Soup Yet?

by Master Po on Sep 27, 2010 10:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Agree PO but...

again – KG wasn’t mentioned because I didn’t really bring him up. I think we know what he can do when healthy.

The only issue that changes with him (and PP) as he ages is how often you guard him in single coverage. His health and game will determine that and that is something to consider. It used to be – pick your poison – double him and get sliced up by his great passing or go ‘man’ on him and get burned that way.

The coverage that KG demands (or not) affects how they play the other 4 players.

BTW I was not able to do media day today.

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

You shoulda asked him about Semih

LOL

"People don't understand, if you can't live the rest of your life off one year in the NBA, you can't live off 21." -- Keon Clark

by Eeyore III on Sep 27, 2010 10:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I realize they may have not discussed KG due to time. Still,

a lot of us have aged 6 years in the last 3 watching KG almost never go to the hole. He has been too passive on offense since he got here. If you are defending him you know he probably won’t drive and you know you can just barely do anything to stop his jumper so its an easy task. And you can cheat off of him since he is too passive. He is gonna get that jumper from time to time. He is gonna to be really good at telling the young guys to just shoot the darn ball and of course he won’t do it himself.

Im not looking to get my hopes up that he will change. I do have my hopes up that Rondo’s jumper will improve enough that we can all see it. And I have my hopes up that KG’s rebounding will get back to say the equivalent of 2nd team all nba from falling off the cliff

by wahz on Sep 27, 2010 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

wahz...

You bring up some interesting comments. I think that is the general perception by many of KG.

I’m not sure it describes KG in complete accuracy, though. My own perception is that KG is playing the role Doc and the team feels he helps them best with – and that is as a facilitator of the offense.

The question (the one you raise) is if that is the best use of KG all the time. I would like to see him shoot a bit more and take it inside more as well.

But the reduction of inside play seemed to correlate with his injuries. I think Doc may have been trying to save him from all the banging that occurs when you go to the middle for your offense. That would explain some of the reduced rebounding too. The lift and strength may not always be there.

Mainly, I believe the reduced rebounding last season is a direct effect of his recovering from his injury and surgery. They were trying to let him pick his spots for board work, IMHO.

And I think you are right, we have to be patient with what KG can give. He will give the team everything he has – but what that is is still up in the air.

by Tom Halzack on Sep 27, 2010 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've been saying

The Celtics bench didn’t need a tall wing; it needs a stretch 4 combo forward who can play some small forward.

by LooseCannon on Sep 27, 2010 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

We have one unstoppable offensive player

    He still is! If you get Shaq the ball in the low post, he is still unstoppable. Peeps don’t even attempt to block his slammer, since they don’t want a broken hand going down the rim with the ball.

by Dipper on Sep 27, 2010 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Props to CB bloggers and posters....

The scout didn’t mention anything that hasn’t been discussed over and over here on CB.

Proof that folks on CB generally know what they’re talking about!

by Stanford_Fan on Sep 27, 2010 8:17 PM EDT reply actions  

On Paul Pierce getting foul calls
I don’t think that he gets the foul calls that he used to, especially on drives.

Folks this last year have frequently commented that they don’t think Pierce is quite as good at generating foul calls.

It is possible that Paul has indeed ‘lost a step’ in that regard, but just to provide folks with accurate picture, here are some numbers on Paul for this last year:

(Following data restricted to players who played at least 1500 minutes)

In FTA / 36Minutes, Paul was ranked 14th, generating 6.5 FTA per 36 minutes. For comparison, Dwight Howard was #1 (10.3), Lebron James was #3 (9.4) and Kobe was #11 (6.9).

However, that doesn’t really tell the tale because as a ‘skill’ it should be measured against actual attempts. Paul only took 12.9 FGAs per game – 62nd in the NBA. Lebron took 18.5. Kobe took 19.9.

Yes, that’s right – Paul was actually better than Kobe at generating FT attempts per FG attempt! In fact his ratio of FTA/FGA, .504 (12th), was just a hair behind Lebron (.508 – 11th) and a hair ahead of Kevin Durant (.503 – 13th) and well above Kobe (.347 – 55th).

Finally, when it comes to turning those into points, Paul did even better because he was so accurate from the line last year. His ratio of completed FTs per FGA, . 426, was good for 9th, this time slipping a bit behind Durant (.454-6th) and ahead of Lebron (.389 – 13th).

So, basically, Pierce was easily still among the NBA elite at creating FTs each time he went to the basket. Maybe he has lost a step, but he’s still very, very, good.

When you see those numbers, you have to maybe understand why Doc basically wanted the ball in Pierce’s hands as much as possible when the game was on the line.

by mmmmm on Sep 28, 2010 12:03 AM EDT reply actions  

some good work mmmm...

But let me say that relying only on stats doesn’t always tell the whole story. I love stats and use them all the time to get indications of where a player is.

But getting foul calls and getting them the same way might be two different stories. Paul may still have a very good ‘call ratio’, but it not be occurring the same way.

FWIW…I was thinking about PP not getting the same respect ‘going to the hoop’ that he used to get, but never said anything. Then I saw the exact same observation in print from a veteran beat writer some time last season. So… with that coming from a long time Pierce watcher, I figure that there may be something to it – if we both were feeling the same way.

OTH…I don’t have the statistical nor circumstantial proof to show you, nor any anecdotal evidence to proffer. Just a feeling based on general observation. Your stats might indicate that observation to be incorrect, and you make a good case for that – but I can’t conclusively say that either.

Hey maybe you are right and I’m wrong, but the call ratios alone don’t make it a fait accompli. Paul himself at one point voiced frustration will not getting certain calls as well.

The feeling was that you have to be the aggressor to get those calls most of the time. Paul’s periods of ‘aggression’ were more calculated last season as Rondo took over the offense and Ray, KG and Paul had a decline in attempts as Rondo,Sheed and Perkins added attempts.

Other than that, your numbers all make sense and I agree that Pierce is still our top offensive option, gets plenty of calls and is making the FTs at a higher rate as he ages. All good news.

thanks mmmm for your insights – good stuff

by Tom Halzack on Sep 28, 2010 9:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I'll agree that his methods may have changed

and that his ability to draw fouls may have varied over time and that it is possible that officials react differently to different players at different times.

But, no, the call ratios are indeed a ‘fait accompli’. They indicate exactly what happened, not what one thinks or subjectively perceived happened.

I never suggest relying solely on stats. You have to be able to understand what a stat is measuring and what its limitations are.

The ratio stats above do not measure how fast or strong Pierce is or what technique he used or what offensive sets the team was in or whatever. They simply measure the result.

And the result is that however he was getting it done – he was, indeed, still getting it done (Where “it” == generating free throws per field goal attempt.).

by mmmmm on Sep 28, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

How is that a...

fait accompli?

It doesn’t indicate exactly what happened. It only gives a long term ratio. You can have a player average 20 pts, then 20 pts, then 20pts again three years in a row. That doesn’t mean he got them the same way each time.

You would need to look at and categorize each foul and when it occurred to get a more accurate breakdown and you would need a baseline formula to compare it against to see if has been any change.

I said it appears that Paul wasn’t getting certain calls. That may be right or wrong but a season long average ratio comparison won’t tell me whether that is true or not. He may not have been getting some calls that he used to. It may have been over a certain period of time. He could have been getting make up calls later in the game. That can’t be told by a season average or ratio.

If you were saying that things ended up averaging out over time, that would be an acceptable statement. But it doesn’t prove the perception untrue.

by Tom Halzack on Sep 28, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

one other possibility...

PP may have gone through a period of not getting certain calls, and then started getting them again. That goes on all the time in the NBA. Players and coaches complain – adjustments are made. Who knows?

by Tom Halzack on Sep 28, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

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