TrueHoop: Kobe is NOT Mr. Clutch

"I don't know who's the best, but with all due respect to Bryant's amazing abilities scoring the ball, there's zero chance he's the king of crunch time." - Henry Abbott

over 1 year ago Jeff Clark 20 comments 0 recs |

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yup. good read. Incredible comments section too. It’s amazing what confirmation bias and recall bias can do to people.

by Fan from VT on Jan 28, 2011 2:39 PM EST reply actions

I'd just like to say, after reading that,

Ouch.

by BballTim on Jan 28, 2011 3:02 PM EST reply actions

Disagree...

As much as I hate Kobe the person…he is at least in my opinion still the best clutch scorer in the NBA.

by fordescort on Jan 28, 2011 3:06 PM EST reply actions

Read the article? :)

- Dirk van Boxtel, the wandering Celtic fan.
Twitter: @4Hoopz

by Kiorrik on Jan 28, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions

I did .

by fordescort on Jan 28, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

This is from Abbott & Costello?

by johnnymost on Jan 28, 2011 3:40 PM EST reply actions

the chart he provides with shots taken/made with less than 24 seconds on the clock down by one or two, karl malone is quite a few spots up from kobe. this either means that kobe has never been clutch in his life or this whole argument needs to be rethought. in my opinion.

oh yeah, and..
I HATE KOBE

by Mooose on Jan 28, 2011 3:50 PM EST reply actions

TrueHoop don’t lie!

by APC on Jan 28, 2011 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Meaningless

Bryant is the best player in the game.

People in this blog will come up with any resource….ANY…To trash him.

Biggest surprise to me is to not see Pierce anywhere on the list.

by Finkelskyhook on Jan 28, 2011 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Probably not enough shots in the specified interval.

I.E. – during those years, you’d have to have played in enough close games to take at least 30 shots in the final 24 seconds of those games. That’s one problem with the article – its a pretty tight definition which excludes players who simply haven’t played in that many close games.

When you use a different definition of ‘clutch time’, say, the last 5 minutes of a game, with neither team ahead by more than 5 points, Pierce looks pretty good. So far this year in that situation he is shooting 47.4% (on 21.1 FGA per 48minutes of such ‘clutch time’ for 30.5pts/48).

Note that in that broader definition Kobe still looks like a ball hog. So far this year he leads everyone in total FGAs and Pts with 34.7 FGA/48 and 53.3 pts/48 of clutch time this year. However, he only shoots 38.5% in those situations.

For guys who have taken at least 20 FGA/48 in that situation this year, Dirk Nowitzki looks like “The Man” – shooting 60% on 25.6 FGA/48. Pretty awesome, that.

On the Celtics, only Paul and Ray have taken over 20 FGA/48 in clutch time. Ray’s numbers are 41.7% on 20.3 FGA/48. His point total in clutch time, 32.7 pts/48 is a little higher than Paul’s due to the greater number of 3PT shots Ray takes.

Of the guys on the Celtics’ who’ve taken at least 10 FGA/48 of clutch time, Glen Davis is tops for FG% at 56.3%. Rondo has been pretty good during clutch time as well, at 50%, but neither of those guys has taken as many shots in that situation as Ray & Paul.

This data is from

http://www.82games.com/1011/CSORT6.HTM

by mmmmm on Jan 28, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

How do you omit Paul Pierce from such a list?

by Bankshot on Jan 28, 2011 4:45 PM EST reply actions

It’s based of the stat in that little table on the right (if you follow the link). There is a post on the Herald’s Celtics blog (citing a CelticsHub post) that says Pierce is only shooting 22% under the parameters of the stat which is pretty low.

by Berkcelt on Jan 28, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Does this stat mean much of anything?

I think it’s a weirdly narrow stat. I guess the idea is basically, who do you want to take the last shot, which maybe is useful to know and at least fun to discuss. Color me a little cynical however, as this seems like a(nother Truehoop) take sensationalized so as to drum up traffic for its blog. Maybe that is just Abbott’s natural inclination, but this whole “everything you know is wrong” theme comes off as a shtick. And one I personally do not find particularly enlightening or entertaining.

I am kind of intrigued by the number of attempts. Might’ve been useful to say how many years or game played the players took those FGAs in. Surprised that KG pulls in third in attempts. Lebron has quite a few considering how many less years he has on Kobe, Vince and KG.

by Berkcelt on Jan 28, 2011 5:07 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, see my post up above.

I like the ‘clutch time’ definition that 82games.com uses better.

Too few games are decided by that ‘last possession shot’. Thus you don’t really have very good statistics to say anything with it. I mean, really – 30 shots? That’s nothing. You can’t say anything really useful with just 30 shots.

82games define ‘clutch time’ as the last 5 minutes of a game with neither team up by more than 5 points. That, too me is a more realistic and useful period to look at because THAT period decides a LOT of games. I want a guy who can perform during THAT time.

I gave a few numbers for that definition up above.

by mmmmm on Jan 28, 2011 7:21 PM EST up reply actions

I think

There’s a vicious cycle that occurs in the absence of objective thinking. First, because it is just so much more fun to think about, we construct the idea that you need to be clutch to win a championship (rather than looking at, say, maybe it’s the easier wins in between the 50/50 games that really determines a championship or that a when a championship is decided by essentially a coinflip, retroactively determining “clutchness.”). So then, whenever there’s a champion, we construct them as “clutch.” Then, if there is a common player to multiple championships, we construct that specific player as very “clutch.” Then we, as humans, subconsciously ignore all the times said “clutch” player fails in the clutch while remembering and registering all the (rarer) time the clutch player came through in the clutch. Then the cycle continues.

by Fan from VT on Jan 28, 2011 5:26 PM EST reply actions