Why Good Offense Cannot Replace Good Defense (and why Shaq must return)

Many of the arguments that have raged over Krstic's value to the team vs. Perk's have centered on K's better offense, vs. Perk's better defense. Arguments have been made that K can COMPENSATE for his inferior-to-Perk's defense with superior offensive skills. This argument does not hold water, for the following reasons.

- Basic basketball: If one guy doesn't take a shot in a given possession, almost always someone else will. The % probability of that someone else's shot going in will typically be around 45%-50%, around the team average. So offensive "production" will occur whether Krstic takes the shot or someone else does. Within the flow of the game, for a guy like Krstic to have an impact on the team's fortunes with his offense, he must score BETTER than the guys who would OTHERWISE take those shots.

- The fact that K can make the mid-range jumper is only relevant if he makes that shot at a rate significantly ABOVE Ray's, Paul's, KG's, etc. I.e., above the rate the "average" likely shooter (in his case, the starters) will shoot. If he merely MATCHES the other guys' rate, then he adds little to nothing to the end results with just his offense. (Krstic's actual FG% for jumpers is ~48%.)

- But the defensive end does not follow these rules AT ALL. If you don't defend the paint correctly, the other team WILL score more points. Period, end of story. No comparisons, no teammates involved.... it's a pure loss of defensive 'production' (or 'anti-production' if you will), which cannot be made up. When you screw up defensively, your team WILL lose ground on the scoreboard.

- To compensate with offense for a defensive deficiency (such as K seems to have) is virtually impossible, because you would have to score at a way, WAY higher rate than your teammates, and that just doesn't happen.

Btw, this is also why 'defense wins championships.' It's an irreplaceable part of the game, unlike offense. Any player can score, but every player must play good D or the team loses ground on the scoreboard. Put another way, scoring is "replaceable production", while defensive performance is "irreplaceable production" (because if you don't do it, generally nobody else will).

Conclusion from all this: We're not going into playoff battle with Krstic starting. No way, no how, not gonna happen. Our center MUST be Shaq. That was the key to the big trade, the plan all along... it had to be, because NOTHING ELSE makes any sense at all. Oh, I suppose you could say that JO might/will come back.... but (a) I don't believe in fairy tales, and (b) he ain't no Shaq. He's not even Perk.

So it's gotta be Shaq. The season, the championship, rests on his shoulders. He's had plenty of time off. He's apparently lost weight. He has said he's willing to shoot up in order to play. So.... shoot him up, suit him up, and let's get it on.