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2008 Reboot: By The Numbers

Promoted from FanPosts...

In light of Jeff Clark's recent 2008 Reboot post, I decided to compare this 2011 team with their 2008 counterparts based on some of their stats.  This was just for fun, but you can clearly see some similarities and also a few stylistic changes for the main players since 2008.  Instead of looking at composite stats like PER or Win Shares that attempt to measure a player in one number, instead I went through the individual category percentage stats from BasketballReference and also added on-court/off-court +/- from 82games.com.  Without further ado, here is the 2008 Reboot, by the numbers:

Star-divide


Min TS % TRB% Ast% Stl% Blk% TOV% USG% Ortg DRtg On/off +/-
Garnett '08 32.8 58.8 16.8 19.9 2.3 3.1 10.8 25.5 118 94 12.1
Garnett '11 31.7 57.5 18.2 13.4 2.5 2.1 10.5 22.3 112 94 14












Pierce '08 35.9 59.9 8.5 21.8 1.9 1 14.4 24.8 115 100 10.7
Pierce '11 34.8 61.5 9.1 15.4 1.6 1.3 11.2 23.7 116 101 14.7












Allen '08 35.9 58.4 6.1 14.6 1.3 0.5 10.4 21.6 116 103 3.4
Allen '11 36.1 62.3 6 12.8 1.4 0.3 9.8 20.4 118 104 5.5












Rondo '08 29.9 51.5 8.3 28.2 3 0.5 15.7 18.9 107 98 6.3
Rondo '11 37.8 53.2 7.4 49.2 3.3 0.3 26.6 17.7 108 100 10.5












Perk '08 24.5 63.2 14.8 6.8 0.9 4.9 22.6 13.5 110 97 4.5
Shaq '11 20.7 65.5 14.7 5.8 1.1 4.4 17.7 19.8 111 98 10.3












Posey '08 24.6 58.7 10.5 9.5 2.1 0.9 12.3 13.5 114 98 -9.7
Green '11 37 53.3 8.9 8.1 1.1 0.8 9.8 19.3 108 110 -4.2












Baby '08 18.3 54.5 13.2 4.6 1.7 1.7 18.5 17.4 105 99 -6.4
Baby '11 29.4 50 11.1 6.7 1.7 1.1 9.3 20.7 101 100 -3.8












Powe '08 14.4 62.9 16.7 3.3 1 1.6 10.8 22.8 124 100 -5.3
Krstic '11 21.7 53.6 12 2.9 0.9 1.2 8.8 16.4 112 110 -3.7












House '08 19 53.4 6.7 16.9 2.1 0.6 12.2 19.6 105 100 -1.9
West '11 17.9 52.9 6.5 19.9 2.6 1.6 10.7 18.7 106 99 ***












T. Allen '08 18.3 52.7 7.3 13.1 2.4 1.3 18.9 19.6 98 99 -4.1
Wafer '11 8.9 52.5 5.6 9 1.9 0.9 9 16.4 105 102 -5.3












Brown '08 11.6 40.6 19.4 6.9 1.3 3.1 17.2 12.9 100 97 -11.5
Murphy '11 14 12.9 6.8 0 0 0 0 13.2 49 107

***

 

 

That's a lot of numbers, so here are some summary thoughts:

Garnett is all-the-way back on defense this year, compared to '08.  His defensive rating is the same, his on/off defensive numbers (not shown here) are actually better in 2011, and his rebound percentage is higher now than it was then.  The biggest change for KG is on offense, where his usage, assist percentage and offensive rating all show that he isn't playing as large of an offensive role this year as he did in '08.  As we'll see, though, the lower usage is a trend for all of the '08 Big 3.

Pierce and Ray also have slightly lower usages and lower assist percentages, but each of them have responded by becoming more efficient as scorers (thus, the higher true shooting percentages and offensive ratings).   All three of KG, Pierce and Ray have been assisted on a higher percentage of their shots this year as opposed to 2008 (not shown here), but while KG's EFG% from both inside and outside have remained about the same both Allen and Pierce have shown big increases in both their jumper and inside EFG% this year.  Shows me that they have shifted more from being creators into being finishers, and that they are thus getting easier looks.

As you would expect, Rondo shows the biggest individual change since '08.  He's playing much heavier minutes, and both his assist % and turnover % have roughly doubled since '08.  He's just playing a much larger role in the offense, initiating almost everything that the Celtics do and letting Pierce and Ray concentrate on being finishers.

Once you get past the Big 4 it becomes harder to compare (since often one player is being compared to another), but a few things stand out.  Shaq this year has posted percentages very similar to Perk's in '08, but at a higher usage and with fewer turnovers.  Not surprising...Shaq is a better offensive player. 

Green's and Krstic's numbers are from Oklahoma City since they just got here, so obviously they'll change in their new roles.  But since we're looking at percentages, we can see that Green has thus far been a higher usage/lower efficiency player than Posey was for us.  Hopefully Green's Boston numbers will start to reflect a similar increase in efficiency. 

Baby has been a much bigger part of the team this year than he was in '08, but interestingly he was much more efficient as a scorer (but much, much worse at turnovers) in '08 than he has been this year.  That's not really so surprising, though, as it's generally easier to be an efficient scorer in short spurts off the bench than it is to maintain that in starter minutes.

All told, this team is probably a bit more talented than their 2008 counterparts and the main pieces have learned how to play with and off of each other to a much larger degree this year than they had four years ago.  We've got a lot of new pieces and some health concerns now that we didn't have in 2008, so this journey is far from over, but let's all just agree that no matter how we get there we DEFINITELY want to see a reboot of the final result of that 2008 season.

Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.

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Pavlovic

WEEI announced he practiced with the team and will wear #77.

by braz on Mar 3, 2011 4:17 PM EST reply actions  

good look

The big three are consistent which is what makes them the stars they are. What a huge jump for Rondo and why he’s an All-Star now. I think Baby is getting blocked less around the bucket which is a big piece of his TO% being better. When DWest gets healthy you’ll see a big diff in his numbers compared to Eddie’s.

by 33-00-32 on Mar 3, 2011 4:18 PM EST reply actions  

Not sure

about pavlovic, wouldnt somebody else in free agency be better then him, like anyone else?

The SoCal Celtic Fan!!!

by TheSOCALrebel on Mar 3, 2011 4:25 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Yeah…I don’t get that either.
I’m listening to DA on WEEI right now.
I’m waiting for him to say something about that.

by braz on Mar 3, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

He's not a great player, but who else is out there?

Pickings are slim, so it’s best not to get worked up about the 14th man on the roster.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

by Roy_Hobbs on Mar 3, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

It’s not like he’s going to be major rotation player or something.

"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."

- Bill Russell

by Marjun Raposon on Mar 4, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Interesting breakdown, thanks for sharing.

I believe it was after the Charlotte loss that KG said he would be more aggressive shooting. I wonder how his usage numbers and overall offensive rating has been since then. By my eyes he seems to be more aggressive shooting lately which I’m all in favor of — although I gotta say, I loved it when he reposted Krstic after Krstic tried to defer to him. That’s gotta give a guy confidence when a player like KG says in effect, it’s all you, big fella (and it was with that nice up and under move).

by Berkcelt on Mar 3, 2011 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

thanks for posting

this was very informative. You should pass along to John Hollinger. might teach him a thing or two.

by footey on Mar 3, 2011 5:08 PM EST reply actions  

No problem, glad you enjoyed it.

Shall I moniter all your posts now like you’re doing mine?

by mmbaby on Mar 3, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh sorry thought you meant me

I am so self centered today and on edge from BBD getting hurt.
Sorry footey

by mmbaby on Mar 3, 2011 5:31 PM EST reply actions  

The Only Problem is...

Garnett isn’t the same player he was in 2008. Pierce wears down more easily in the playoffs (think of how rested he was in 2008 vs. now). Shaq isn’t Perkins on defense. And no one can really approximate Posey.

It’s not that they count win, it’s just when you break it down this way you can see the differences after the top 4.

by ElGee35 on Mar 3, 2011 6:33 PM EST reply actions  

I would debate some of your certainties...

*Garnett may not be what he was in ‘08…but he’s the closest that he’s been SINCE 2008, and we won’t know until the playoffs really just HOW close he is. We’ve now seen, repeatedly, that he has another gear or two that he seems to break out on special occasions. And when he breaks out that gear, he looks a LOT like he looked in 2008. Last season, even in the playoffs, KG clearly lacked even top-end ability let alone an extra boost. This season he’s shown he has at least some NOS boost…just how much, hopefully we’ll find out in June.

*Pierce wearing down…I think it’s a myth. He looked better through 14 games in 2009 and 2010 than he looked through 14 games of 2008. I think he’s only been “wearing down” the last couple years because the team hasn’t been as good and people have used Pierce as a fall-back excuse.

*Shaq isn’t Perkins on defense, but he is WAY better on offense. And when he’s been healthy, the team has looked much better with Shaq than they ever did with Perk. The question, to me, is whether or not Shaq can stay healthy. But if so, I’d rather have Shaq’s contributions than Perk’s.

*Posey…it’s not good to talk poorly about Celtics in these parts, but I’ll say it: Posey was overrated. He was a nice contributor to the team…primarily in the locker room and with his clutch shooting…but his defense was way, WAY overrated on that team. Frankly, I don’t expect Green to approximate Posey…I expect he’ll be better.

*To me, after the top 4 this team is actually much stronger than the 2008 squad…health permitting. And the top-4, between them, have at least as high of a ceiling as the 2008 group if not higher…again, health permitting. Health is by FAR the biggest unanswered question for the rest of the season IMO. If this team is healthy, I’d bet on them against any other team in the NBA…including the 2008 Celtics (if someone had a working time machine).

by drza44 on Mar 4, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Why......

….do I have to go to one of my favorite site and see pics of 2 FORMER team members? I didn’t even read the article but obviously it’s about comparisons but the fact is, Perk plays on another team now as does Posey. What we had in the past with them was great but it’s over. I probably would enjoy the article but I’m so darn tired of seeing Perk everywhere I turn.

Forgive me.

by mainevent on Mar 3, 2011 6:45 PM EST reply actions  

Great article, drza44. One tiny, tiny quibble.

I wish you had posted a team v team comparison. This loses a little without knowing how each ranks compared to the league in each stat, but nevertheless, here it is:

            Misc  Misc Misc Misc  Misc  Misc Team Team Team   Team Oppo Oppo Oppo   Oppo
      W  L   MOV   SOS  SRS Pace  ORtg  DRtg eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA eFG% TOV% ORB% FT/FGA
2008 66 16 10.26 -0.95 9.31 90.9 110.2  98.9 .522 14.7 26.6  0.267 .457 15.2 25.6  0.253
2011 44 15  6.71 -0.45 6.26 91.0 107.4 100.0 .527 14.4 21.6  0.228 .470 15.2 24.9  0.246

To me, the thing that jumps out on this are that while our defensive rating has dropped a bit, just -1.1 pts per 100 possessions, our offensive rating is quite a bit down from 2008: -2.8 pp100.

From a league rankings stand point, our DRtg is #1 in both years, but while our 2008 ORtg was a respectable 10th (and well above average), in 2011 it is only a league average 14th.

This sorta validates the view that we needed to add offense to the mix. Our margin of victory is simply not where Danny & Doc probably would like. And when your Drtg is already the best in the league there is not a lot of room for improvement there. There is obviously some room for improvement on offense. Hence Danny’s recent trades and acquisitions.

I should point out, though, that back in the fall, while Shaq was healthy and playing a lot of minutes, our MoV was pretty healthy. I remember checking it at one point and it was something like +9 or so.

Its also interesting to note that we are scoring almost 3 pts less per 100 possessions even though we are shooting the ball more accurately (higher eFG%) and turning the ball over less. The stat that points to where the difference is is the drastically reduced FT/FGA.

We are shooting significantly less free throws per field goal attempt.

This is very strange and continues to elude me why since the Celtics continue to attack the rim. Our current 2011 Celtics are 7th in attemtps at the Rim (25.6 per game) and 2nd in made shots at the rim (17.5 per game). So we definitely take it to the hoop. However we are only ranked 15th in FT/FGA.

I guess that might partly be explained by the fact that so many of our shots are assisted (including our shots at the rim) and are so wide-open there is no opportunity to be fouled? 60.7% of our shots at the rim are assisted – tops in the league – and we are hitting those shots at a 68.3% clip – 2nd in the league.

"We will take it easy, and walk on down our road at our pace with our focus ahead, and your focus on us." - Warrior Spirit, on what Celtics' Ubuntu is.

by mmmmm on Mar 3, 2011 7:56 PM EST reply actions  

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