How Fans Hurt The Team (& How To Help Instead)

by DRJ1 on Mar 31, 2011 8:46 PM EDT

I promised this info, so here it is (though it feels a bit anticlimactic now).

Theory: When the Garden gets NOISY enough, the Celtics, who rely on communication on the court for their defense, cannot hear each other, and their defense suffers. This would NOT be a curved effect, rising with the amount of noise. It would be a sudden switch-like effect whenever the noise in the Garden gets loud enough to block their hearing each other on the court, on defense.

Stats: I followed a bunch of games between January and March, and noted every time the noise in the Garden got to a MAXIMUM while the Cs were on defense. "Maximum" noise occurs when everyone in the Garden appears to be yelling at the same time... typically when there's excitement about the Cs doing well. The key for me was when the ANNOUNCERS have to shout in order to be heard on TV.... it was those Max-Noise incidents that I tracked.

Below are the results for each such defensive possession, including quarter numbers and time markers:

DATE	QTR	TIME	RESULTS (Notes)
1/12/2011	1	10:30	2 pts
	2	7:29	FTs
1/14	3	7:06	missed bunny, then FTs
	4	6:19	2 pts
1/17	1	5:37	0
	3	5:56	2 pts
	4	2:30	3 pts
1/19	4	11:26	OOB (out of bounds - no play)
	4	10:37	2 pts
	4	6:20	0 pts (Noise not quite max)
1/22	1	5:40	FTs
1/25	1	4:00	3 pts
2/4	4	10:00	2 pts
	4	5:49	0 pt
	4	0:02.5	3 pt (& game lost)
2/6	1	10:20	0 pt
2/16	2	5:05	2 FTs
	4	3:40	Opponent fouled (but no FTs)
3/2	3	6:49	2 pt
	4	3:56	2pt And-1

As you can readily see, the result is MUCH, MUCH WORSE for the Celtics when the Garden is noisy.
- There were 20 incidents noted (if I missed any, they were randomly missed, and so would not theoretically affect the results; I also missed some whole games, again randomly).
- Of those 20, one incident is discounted because the play was aborted (1/19 - ball went out of bounds). That leaves 19 incidents.

The opponent either scored or was fouled 15 times out of the 19 incidents. The Opponent's True Shooting Percentage (OTS%) for these incidents is: 85.7%. (Anything over 50% is considered good for them; anything over 60% is considered great for them; 85.7% is completely ridiculous. Note: Scoring from FTs was calculated as 75% of FTAs, which totaled 8 points for this group of games.)

Opponents of the Celtics this year have generated an average TS% rate of 51.6% (source: hoopdata.com). (Note: I am using TS% because it takes into account FTs, and the Cs are often forced to foul in these cases.)

This means: opponents have a 66% BETTER scoring rate, per the True Shooting stat, when the Garden is very noisy, as opposed to when it is not.

Therefore -- when you are in the Garden, and you get all excited and want to shout out -- DO IT WHEN THE Cs ARE ON OFFENSE, BUT NOT WHEN THEY ARE ON DEFENSE. In this way, you can actually help your team win some games.

Noise is BAD when the Cs are on defense. Noise is GOOD when the OTHER TEAM is on defense.

Be respectful and keep it clean. Thanks.

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Comments

I think you posted something like this last season

But I believe having an angry mob yelling at the top of their lungs helps the C’s more than the opponents. Imagine shooting hoops and whenever you miss 20000 people cheer because they all think you’re a ….(place your own word here)…. Or whenever you get the ball you can hear the first few rows taunting you about your appearance, partner or family. I imagine that does something to your thought process no matter how much experience you have dealing with it. I think they can hear each other just fine, if I can here half of the crap that spews out of KG’s mouth on TV then I’m sure his teammates can hear what he’s saying 3 metres away just fine. Besides you can’t expect a crowd to stay deadly quiet and then erupt as if on command.

by AussieGreen on Mar 31, 2011 11:20 PM EDT reply actions

I posted the theory last year

…without the evidence.

People will do what they wanna do. I would be nice, though, if they at least realized that their noise can interfere with their team’s defense. Bet they’d shut up then.

by DRJ1 on Mar 31, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I generally understood and like the idea but how about the defensive possessions on quiet (minimum noise) situation?

Just for comparison.

"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."

- Bill Russell

by Marjun Raposon on Apr 1, 2011 7:07 AM EDT reply actions

Most possessions are quiet

By comparing the very-noisy def possessions to ALL possessions, I’m actually being extra conservative in the comparison… because obviously, the results for ALL possessions INCLUDES the very-noisy ones.

Put another way, if ALL possessions give a OTS% of 51.6% for the Cs, and the very-noisy ones are at 85.7%, one can rightfully deduce that the non-noisy possessions result in an EVEN LOWER OTS% than 51.6% (because we’re deducting a group of possessions which, at 85.7%, is pulling the overall average higher).

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Justified. Thanks.

"The idea is not to block every shot. The idea is to make your opponent believe that you might block every shot."

- Bill Russell

by Marjun Raposon on Apr 2, 2011 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions

This is hysterical, because......

My son and I started noticing this a couple of years ago, while at the games. We now joke that every time the noise meter goes up on the jumbotron, the opposition is going to score. I agree with you 100 percent. Easier to play offense with the noise than defense.

by vinnie on Apr 1, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

I began to notice a couple of years ago

…. how big noise => opponent score. That’s why I finally decided to track the results. It’s a new kind of stat, actually…. an “Ambient Noise” factor, or some such thing……….. Seems real.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Hold that thought

To actually help the team you want to be loud when the opposing team has the ball. I understand that you have noticed this and even kept track of it and its been a trend, but and here comes the but the reason Good Fans are as loud as they can be when the opposing team has the ball is because the majority of the time the coach is telling the floor general mostly the PGs the play to run. Its not like baseball where they touch there hat there leg then there arm and thats the play. We are a very good defensive team most of the new players are still getting use to it but we are we got Rondo and KG to help the front and back court to be organized on defense. Us fans scream and make as much noise on D so that the other teams PG can’t understand what play to call and either does his own thing, makes a mistake and turns it over, or has to waste a time out in order to get the play called or his troops in order. Finally the last reason for being loud when the Cs are on defense is for the players that aren’t as experienced and mess up under pressure.

by Ajc4869 on Apr 1, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

Evidence indicates otherwise

As you can see above. I understand that people have arguments that go in either direction. Which is why I actually TRACKED THE RESULTS…. and apparently, the Cs defense’s need to HEAR EACH OTHER far outweighs any other factor. Makes sense, esp on the Celtics, because they rely on that in-game communication to tell each other what’s happening, when to rotate, when a pick’s being set, etc., etc.

If you want to help your team, do NOT yell when they’re on defense. Yell when the OTHER guys are on D, so that THEIR defense will find it hard to communicate.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure that's valid, Ajc

Most of the time the play can be called in with one quick word or hand/arm signal. The PG also has the option of dribbling close-past the bench to get the play.

On the court, the PG almost always signals the play using signals. Yeah, they may use voice at times, but that’s not reliable in a noisy, road arena. But even if they use voice, usually the play call can be a short name of play.

The defense is reacting. They have to adapt. As such they have more complex things to have to communicate like, “Baby, let’s switch now and if your man gets the ball I’ll help you!”

If the crowd is too loud, BBD might end up look over at KG with a puzzled expression and say, “Why are you singing the words to the Beattle’s ‘Baby You’re a Rich Man?’”

More seriously, basketball is not quite like football in the way offense and defense communicate. I think noise might indeed hurt the defense more in basketball.

So DRJ1 may be on to something.

It would be interesting to see similar notes taken for when the fans use the “DE-FENSE!” chant, instead of just screaming at the top of their lungs.

"We will take it easy, and walk on down our road at our pace with our focus ahead, and your focus on us." - Warrior Spirit, on what Celtics' Ubuntu is.

by mmmmm on Apr 1, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Every little bit helps in this game. If we can get even ONE extra successful def possession… there’s no knowing what impact that could have. Might change the result of a playoff game (when people tend to scream a lot). Maybe even the championship.

Hope word goes out about this (tho I doubt it). I do think that if people knew, they’d do the right thing.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The PA/music/cheering guy is sort of in charge of getting folks to do the chant.

If the chant doesn’t have the same negative effect, then a smart PA/music/cheering guy could make a point to use that more.

"We will take it easy, and walk on down our road at our pace with our focus ahead, and your focus on us." - Warrior Spirit, on what Celtics' Ubuntu is.

by mmmmm on Apr 1, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

My impression is that the chants do not have the same negative effect. And in theory they shouldn’t, because the a chant is more rhythmic, with plenty of holes in the noise during which it’s possible to communicate. It’s that total WALL of noise, when even the announcers have to shout to be heard (or to hear themselves), that seems to be the most negative.

So… good idea. Now if we could just get the word to them………..

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

This should be rec'd

otherwise it will disappear. this kind of info could be useful to the team. need to get word out!

by JR99 on Apr 1, 2011 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

Right

I’d do it myself if I could…. It will be too bad if hardly anyone hears about this.

by DRJ1 on Apr 1, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Lol. Noise has nothing to do with it.

So when we won in 2008. It was quiet huh?

by RGN07 on Apr 2, 2011 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

+1

This isn’t golf.

by thenation on Apr 3, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I think if you were to ask the players what they prefer..

They would want the crowd as loud as possible when they are on both ends. The essence of playing at home is to have the crowd supporting them, providing energy and excitement for as long as possible ON BOTH ENDS. Noise wasn’t an issue or concern when each of the 17 banners were won.
MORE to the point, the Celtics are SO LUCKY to have so many fans fill those seats every night that make noise and root for this team.
There are teams in the league that play infront of empty seats – in arenas that are dead silent.
IE: Becareful what you wish for…

by thenation on Apr 3, 2011 12:25 PM EDT reply actions